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☆ 'The vast bulk of companies are in big trouble': A renowned bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still on the way as bankruptcies rise — threatening to sink even the mega-cap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies

☆ Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

☆ Slower, but still strong US employment growth expected in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

☆ US stocks trade mixed amid earnings rush and fresh economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks finished mixed Tuesday amid more earnings reports and fresh economic data. The number of job openings dropped by more than expected, according to Labor Department data. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyUS stocks finished mixed on Tuesday amid more earnings reports and fresh economic data that pointed to some weakening. Dow stocks Merck and Caterpillar reported quarterly earnings that topped forecasts, while fellow blue chip Pfizer gave mixed results. The Labor Department reported that job openings in June fell to 9.582 million from 9.824 million in the prior month, below forecasts for about 9.6 million.

Organizations: Labor Department, Service, Dow, Merck, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Institute, Supply Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Morning Bid: Will August retain July's heat?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

August 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp, financial markets journalist. Asian stocks have closed the books on a July that ran fairly hot, and not just with respect to temperatures. On Tuesday, Australia's central bank is expected to follow in the footsteps of its global peers by hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points. Both reports should provide further clarity on the effects of the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy on the world's largest economy. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Stephen Culp, Wall, Deepa Babington Organizations: CSI, Asia Pacific, Nikkei, China PMI, Bank of Japan's, Caterpillar, Institute for Supply, Labor, Reserve Bank of, Global, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, China, Australia's, United States, India, Korea

☆ US economy shifts into disinflation mode; consumer prices rise modestly
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was the smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 and followed a 4.0% rise in May. The year-on-year CPI is slowing in part as last year's large rises drop out of the calculation. It was the first time in six months that the so-called core CPI did not post monthly gains of at least 0.4%. Services prices rose 0.3%, matching May's gain. Economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Chris Zaccarelli, Sarah Silbiger, Michael Gregory, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters Graphics, CPI, Reuters, Independent, Treasury, El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Toronto

☆ US consumer prices post modest gains; economy shifts into disinflation mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Treasury prices rose. It was the first time in six months that the so-called core CPI did not post monthly gains of at least 0.4%. In the 12 months through June, the core CPI rose 4.8%. Core inflation is expected to continue receding in the months ahead, with the labor market cooling and independent measures showing rents on a downward trend. Economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Sarah Silbiger, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters Graphics, CPI, Reuters, Treasury, El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,

☆ US job gains smallest in 2-1/2 years; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Leisure and hospitality employment remains 369,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. The household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived showed employment rebounding 273,000, reversing the 310,000 decline in May. Reuters Graphics"Though demand for labor remains unmatched, the labor shortages that employers sighed over a year ago have definitely subsided some," said Andrew Flowers, lead labor economist at Appcast.

Persons: Sean Snaith, payrolls, Selcuk Eren, Andrew Flowers, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Reuters, Manufacturing, Institute for Supply, Treasury, Companies, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington

☆ Slower, still strong US job growth expected in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The economy needs to create 70,000-100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. A Conference Board survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. But first-time applications for unemployment benefits jumped to a 20-month high during the week that the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls count. "They are going to opt to cut hours worked, that is something we need to pay very close attention to, rather than the net gain in nonfarm payrolls." The slowdown in wage growth is being driven by the loss of high-paying technology and finance jobs among others.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Sung Won Sohn, Payrolls, Ryan Sweet, Milton Ezrati, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, U.S, Loyola Marymount University, Institute for Supply, Board, Oxford Economics, West Chester Pennsylvania, BNP, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Los Angeles, payrolls, West Chester, nonfarm, New York

Private payrolls increased more than expected in June, the ADP National Employment report showed, indicating the labor market remained strong despite growing risks of a recession from higher interest rates. Another survey showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week. "The Fed has been hopeful to see a modest deterioration in the labor market," said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab. "But since the ADP number was almost twice of what was expected, it generally implies there's potential for more rate hikes going forward." Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: payrolls, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Lorie Logan, Janet Yellen, judge's, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Exxon, Dow, ADP, Dallas, Twitter, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply, Qualcomm, Intel, Treasury, Exxon Mobil, JetBlue Airways, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: ., Beijing, Washington, China, U.S, Bengaluru

Most tech and growth megacaps, whose valuations come under pressure when borrowing costs rise, fell in early premarket trading, with Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) down 0.7% each. Meta Platforms (META.O) rose 1.8% after attracting millions of users within hours of launching Threads on Wednesday. After a dismal 2022, big growth and technology stocks have seen outsized gains in 2023, with the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) clocking its best first-half in 40 years. ET, Dow e-minis were down 139 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.42%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 69.25 points, or 0.45%. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Janet Yellen's, judge's, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Exxon, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Meta, Twitter, Victoria, Interactive Investor, Investors, Institute for Supply, Dow e, Qualcomm, Intel, Treasury, Exxon Mobil, JetBlue Airways, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Coty, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Washington, China, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ U.S. factory orders miss expectations in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Factory orders rose 0.3% after advancing by the same margin in April, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Orders increased 1.1% through May from a year earlier. Orders for transportation equipment increased 3.8% in May after accelerating 4.8% in the prior month. Civilian aircraft orders soared 32.8%, but motor vehicle orders fell 0.6%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.5%.

Persons: Lucia Mutikani Organizations: U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, Institute, Supply, Civilian, Thomson

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturers reported another widespread decline in business activity during June, which continued to weigh down industrial energy consumption and prices. Chartbook: U.S. industrial energy useThe forward-looking new orders component rose to 45.6 (9th percentile) in June up from 42.6 (6th percentile) in May but was still down from 49.2 (19th percentile) a year ago. ENERGY CONSUMPTIONIndustrial energy consumption is closely correlated with the manufacturing and freight cycle. Softness in diesel and electricity consumption is consistent with the moderate but persistent downturn in manufacturing evident in ISM surveys since the middle of 2022. It has helped take some of the pressure off diesel and electricity supplies and reversed the previous upward trend in prices.

Persons: John Kemp, David Holmes Organizations: Institute, Supply, Business, Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturers, U.S . Energy Information, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, doldrums

☆ US core capital goods orders beat expectations; shipments rise modestly
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Core capital goods orders increase 0.7% in MayShipment of core capital goods rise 0.2%Durable goods orders jump 1.7%WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly rose in May, but the prior month's data was revised down, suggesting that businesses remained cautious about new capital investment because of higher borrowing costs and an uncertain economic outlook. Core capital goods orders increased 0.7% last month. Data for April was revised lower to the core capital goods rising 0.6% instead of 1.3% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would be unchanged. Core capital goods shipments are one of the inputs used to calculate equipment spending in the gross domestic product measurement.

Persons: Rubeela Farooqi, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Commerce Department, Reuters, Federal, Institute, Supply, Transportation, Boeing, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, White Plains New York, U.S

"The bill now moves to the Senate, where we believe it will clear the 60-vote hurdle after some political and procedural posturing," analysts at BTIG said. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 22.5 points, or 0.16%. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing PMI for May will also be on the watch list. C3.ai Inc (AI.N) slumped 22.8% after the artificial intelligence company forecast annual revenue outlook below street estimates. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BTIG, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shristi, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Senate, Dow e, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, P Global, PMI, Institute for Supply, Fed Governor, Philadelphia Fed, Dow Jones, Nordstrom, Macy's Inc, Dollar General Corp, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ New York factory activity slumps in May - NY Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State plunged in May, but the survey is extremely volatile, making it harder to interpret. A reading below zero signals the New York manufacturing sector is contracting. Nevertheless, higher interest rates and the rotation of spending back to services from goods is hurting national manufacturing activity. Tighter credit conditions are also seen as a drag. The New York Fed will on Tuesday publish a survey focusing on credit access and credit conditions.

Observers often disagree at the time whether the economy is already in recession, and sometimes afterwards whether a recession has occurred or just a “soft patch” in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion. But the same surveys show the much larger service sector still reporting marginal growth, keeping the economy as a whole out of recession so far. Chartbook: U.S. economic indicatorsThe Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) service sector index stood at 51.9 in April (with more businesses reporting expanding activity than contraction) compared with a manufacturing sector index of just 47.1. In April, the ISM services index was in only the 15th percentile for all months since 1997 compared with the manufacturing index in only the 9th percentile. If the manufacturing sector has already fallen into recession, the services sector is only just avoiding it at the moment.

☆ US homebuilder sentiment improves further; NY state manufacturing rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.

S&P 500's busiest tradesThe S&P 500 declined 0.25% to end the session at 4,090.38 points. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsOf the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, seven declined, led lower by consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), down 2.04%, followed by a 1.3% loss in industrials (.SPLRCI). Analysts on average expect aggregate S&P 500 company earnings for the first quarter to have fallen 5% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.2-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 11 new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 39 new highs and 269 new lows.

Driving the recession fears, the ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March. S&P 500's busiest tradesThe S&P 500 was down 0.52% at 4,079.37 points. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, six declined, led lower by consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), down 1.93%, followed by a 1.65% loss in information technology (.SPLRCT). Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.5-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted eight new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 25 new highs and 218 new lows.

Earlier this week data showed falling factory orders and soft manufacturing activity. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May stood at 60.5%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike was at 39.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors, with healthcare (.SPXHC) and utilities (.SPLRCU) hitting their highest in close to two months. The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 23 new highs and 185 new lows.

☆ Futures fall as investors await key economic data amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ET, Dow e-minis were down 46 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 8.75 points, or 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 30.5 points, or 0.23%. Weak job openings data and falling factory orders on Tuesday followed soft manufacturing activity data on Monday, sparking fresh concerns about economic outlook and pushing the S&P 500 (.SPX) to snap a four-day winning streak in the prior session. Escalating oil prices following the OPEC+ group's output cuts have also worsened the outlook for inflation, adding to investors' anxiety. Both the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are on track to notch weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

April 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Rates markets no longer expect the Fed to raise rates again and are pricing in 75 basis points of easing this year. But falling yields and increased rate cut expectations are not supporting stocks and risk assets - recession fears are growing. Australian policymakers said they want time to assess the impact of past increases as the economy slows and inflation peaks. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

April 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Australia's central bank takes center stage on Tuesday with its latest interest rate decision, and beyond that, if the second trading day of the quarter is as eventful as the first, then investors' plates will be extra full. chartchartInterest rate futures markets are attaching a near-90% probability to policymakers keeping the benchmark cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, putting the year-long hiking cycle on hold at least for now. Elsewhere in Asia on Tuesday, South Korea releases inflation figures for March. Japan's monetary base has actually been shrinking every month since September, on a year-on-year basis.

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