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☆ Don't fear December: Stocks usually see year-end gains, especially before a presidential election year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

December is the time of the season when investors seldom have to worry about stock market performance, particularly in years that come before a presidential election. "Trading in December is holiday-inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month," Hirsch recently told subscribers. "However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins." December does even better for small-cap stocks, at least going back to 1979, delivering the year's second-highest monthly return. That small cap return is usually back end loaded, however, only starting around the middle of the month.

Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, outsized, Dow Industrials, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft Locations: Decembers

☆ The turkey trade: These stocks have a history of doing well after Thanksgiving
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Pro screened for stocks that tend to rise following the Thanksgiving holiday. Wall Street likes the shares today: At least 55% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain buy ratings. Shares are also well liked by analysts with more than 69% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on CVS. CVS YTD mountain CVS stock. The stock has historically added 2.6% after Thanksgiving with holiday travel in full swing, and shares have climbed 9% in 2023.

Persons: Wall Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock Trader's, CNBC Pro, FactSet, Caesars Entertainment, Culinary Union, Pharmacy, CVS, Delta Locations: Atlanta

☆ Wall St Week Ahead After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, “, CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead - After breathtaking surge, U.S. stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

☆ Wall Street turns to Nvidia earnings in the week ahead as stocks try to keep their November momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.

Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan

☆ Stock market looks to escape macroeconomic fears as it mounts a November comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Progress, for sure, with something more to prove. And of course, the S & P had only just broken an eight-session win streak before then. There's no doubt the spread between, say, the Nasdaq 100 and the equal-weight S & P 500 is extreme this year, at some 42 percentage points. The S & P 500 High Beta Index, tracked by the SPHB ETF , now trades under 15-times forward earnings, down from 20-times in February and a current 18 for the S & P 500. Earnings growth — even if slow and unevenly bestowed across sectors — tends to limit equity downside at minimum.

Persons: that's, Disinflation Organizations: Federal, stoke, Treasury, Fed, NYSE, Trader's, Nasdaq, Beta Locations: Friday's

☆ Here are Wall Street’s favorite stocks into November — all expected to rise more than 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Heading into November, CNBC screened for Wall Street's favorite stocks out of the S & P 500, or stocks that met the following criteria: Consensus 12-month price target calls for a 20% or more upside. The average analyst surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, has a consensus potential upside of 23% on T-Mobile . The consensus price target for the stock implies a forecast upside of almost 24%. In October, Morgan Stanley named the stock as one of its favorite stock picks in a slowing, late-cycle economy. Other names beloved by Wall Street and highlighted in our screen include Targa Resources , Halliburton and Centene .

Persons: Stocks, Wall, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CNBC, LSEG, Mobile, Energy, Oil, Wall, Resources, Halliburton, Centene

☆ After a miserable October, the setup for stocks in November is looking better
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.

Persons: —, That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG

☆ Something for the bulls: November is typically the best month for the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

November is typically an outperforming month for Wall Street, according to data from the "Stock Trader's Almanac." The benchmark S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each historically posted an average gain of 1.7% in November, dating back to 1950. Those moves make November the strongest month of the year for the S & P 500 and the second-best month for both the Nasdaq and the 30-stock Dow, according to the almanac. The S & P 500 has slipped roughly 3% so far and is on track for a third-straight month of declines . The string of monthly losses would mark the first such occurrence for the S & P 500 since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's, there's, We've, doesn't, we're, they're Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: lockstep

Despite a bleak month in October for the stock market, there may be some good news in store for at least four stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average . All three major market indexes are in the red this month, with the Dow off by 1.5% since the end of September. But investors may find some relief heading into the year end, since historically November has been a strong month for stocks. Analysts surveyed by LSEG have an average rating of hold on Caterpillar. Based on a consensus price target of $288, Caterpillar offers some 27% upside according to analyst estimates.

Persons: Dow, LSEG, Max, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock, Dow, CNBC, Caterpillar, Analysts, LSEG, Boeing, Max . Insurance, UBS

☆ If you sold in May, it's time to start buying again, says the Stock Trader's Almanac
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A Monday evening note from Almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch said that the stock market appears to be in the early stages of an end-of-year rally. SPY YTD mountain The S & P 500 is up since May, but did suffer a late-summer swoon. The buy signal could help offset the multiple negatives working against the stock market, including bond yield volatility and the conflict in the Middle East. The Almanac's portfolio changes show an expectation of a broad market rally. The moves include buying the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) , SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as well as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .

Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, SPDR, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Trust, P Biotech, Consumer, Vanguard, Index

☆ Stocks go up in in the fourth quarter of the year 80% of the time—what that means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Don't look now, but the market is entering what's historically been a good period for investors. No, it's not McRib season, although there's a case to made that the sandwich's reappearance bodes well for stocks. Rather, investors will be glad to know that October kicks off what is typically a good three months for stocks, following a month in September that historically tends to be rough. The S&P 500 index posted September declines of 3.9% in 2020, 4.8% in 2021, 9.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023. In fact, stocks have gone up in the fourth quarter 79.5% of the time — the highest success rate of any quarter.

Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch

☆ Wall Street sees the market's bumpy ride continuing in the 4th quarter. Here are the risks in store
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Many investors expect that could be the capitulation event equities need to bottom out before rebounding. "If you get down to five and a quarter all hell's gonna break loose," Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked sharply to about 4.8% this week, about 1 whole percentage point above where it was in mid-July at around 3.7%. In fact, it won't take much for the positive narrative to start to take hold in markets, Hogan said. Hogan anticipates the S & P 500 could rise to 4,800 by year end, about 13% above where it is currently.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Fitch, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg doesn't, You'll, Ginsberg, Riley Financial's Art Hogan, they'll, Read, Hogan, Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Katie Stockton, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Jeffrey Hirsch, I'm, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, CNBC Pro's, Supply, Bank of America's Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ The market has shaken off government shutdowns in the past. Here's what Wall Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500, Nasdaq end four-day string of losses: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures hovered near the flat line Monday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 25 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.06%. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.45%. Nevertheless, stocks are on pace to end September lower, a month that is already known as being historically weak for equities.

Persons: doesn't, it's, Mary Ann Bartels Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: Washington

☆ Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur? What's the reasoning behind this classic seasonal trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For active traders who like to time buying and selling around seasonal events, the next few weeks are Market Timing Heaven. The volatility is encapsulated in one of the more enduring seasonal trades: Sell Rosh Hashanah (which begins at sundown Friday this year), buy Yom Kippur (Sept. 25). Traders sell positions due to seasonal weakness at the start of Rosh Hoshanah, then return to the market after Yom Kippur. The period from Yom Kippur to Passover, which starts on April 22, 2024, is traditionally an up period, good for an average gain of 6.9%. It means market timers expecting seasonal weakness for the next few weeks are also expecting seasonal strength in the fourth quarter.

Persons: Rosh Hoshanah, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Tom McClellan, McClellan, Todd Sohn Organizations: Triple, Triple Witching, Federal, Traders Locations: Yom, Rosh, Yom Kippur, Strategas

☆ Watch out: September's poor market track record is getting worse — especially for certain stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street is barreling toward what's historically been the worst month for stocks, according to CNBC PRO data. September is the weakest month for Apple, which dropped 2.82% on average, and Google-parent Alphabet, which fell an average 2.20%. For Amazon, September is the 11th weakest month, dropping 2.59%. And for Meta, it's the 10th worst month, as shares fall 1.96% on average. Meanwhile, September is historically the 9th worst month for this year's biggest AI beneficiary Nvidia, which is higher this year by nearly 200%.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, it's, Almanac's Hirsch, Hirsch, Chris Hayes Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, that's, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia Locations: That's

☆ Inflation takes center stage in the week ahead as Wall Street looks for more clues on Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

New inflation data set for release in the week ahead could help Wall Street regain its footing. However, he does not expect that the inflation data releasing next week will be very threatening, even if they show a slight rise from the prior reading. A smattering of results will roll out in the week ahead including from major firms like the Walt Disney Company, which reports Wednesday. Other economic data Investors will digest other major economic data in the week ahead. Hourly earnings (July) Earnings: RL Friday, Aug. 11 8:30 a.m. PPI (July) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (August)

Persons: it's, Jack Ablin, Ablin, McCormick, Archer, CFRA'S Sam Stovall, FactSet, Stovall, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk, Tyson, Eli Lilly, Fox Organizations: Federal, PPI, Cresset, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Daniels, Midland, Chevron, Investments, Walt Disney Company, Wynn Resorts, Dow, Consumer Credit, Tyson Foods, Paramount, Parcel Service, CPI Locations: U.S, Michigan

☆ Traders are wondering if now is the time for a summer market correction
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a string of up days, the old market leadership of technology and consumer discretionary is looking tired, and that is probably a good thing. Since 1950, August is the third-worst month for the S & P 500, while September is the worst month. That is "historically extreme," Todd Sohn from Strategas told me, though it is consistent with coming off major market lows. A torrid two-month rally has lifted the S & P Technology Sector (XLK) by 16%, but tech has mostly been for sale in the last few days. Still, for investors in the S & P 500, McClellan says no one should be surprised to see a summer correction in the next month or so.

Persons: Tom McClellan, Nate Geraci, Schwab, Todd Sohn, Strategas, John Murphy, Banks, Murphy, UnitedHealth, Johnson, Abbott, Ed Yardeni, McClellan Organizations: The, Growth, P Technology, Microsoft, Apple, Nasdaq, NVIDIA, Meta, Technology, Health Care

☆ Transports and industrials are both breaking to new highs, a sign the rally is broadening out
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dow theory: a primer The rules around the Dow Theory were formulated more than 120 years ago by Charles Dow himself (though he himself never used the term Dow Theory). "Dow Theory was formulated when the Dow Industrials were stuff makers, and the railroads were stuff movers," Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, told me. New Dow Theory also confirms a new high There have been attempts to formulate a "New Dow Theory." Tuesday, the S & P 500 closed at 4,554 (up 19% this year), and the Nasdaq closed at 14,354 (up 37% year-to-date). The S & P 500 is up 9% since May 1.

Persons: Dow, Charles Dow, Tom McClellan, McClellan, David Keller, Keller, hasn't, It's, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow Jones Transportation, Dow, Dow Theory, Dow Transports, Dow Railroads, FedEx, UPS, Nasdaq Locations: U.S, uptrends

☆ The AI-powered rally to start the year could broaden out in the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks markets are wrapping up a surprisingly strong start to the year, but whether it will continue is an open question as investors wade into a seasonally weak period for markets. Even the laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average, with few tech stocks, managed to eke out a 3.6% gain. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla account for 80% of the gains in the S & P 500, according to UBS. The S & P 500 health sector is down almost 3% this year. Next week marks the start of July and the third quarter of 2023.

Persons: didn't, Jamie Cox, Cox, John Lynch, Harris Financial's Cox, that's, Comerica's Lynch, Kim Forrest, Nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Spring, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Harris Financial, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, UBS, Comerica Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Investors, Bokeh Capital Partners, Independence, P Global, PMI, Tuesday U.S

☆ Expect another strong July for stocks, market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The past decade has brought particularly strong months of July for the S & P 500 , according to Carson Group. And the firm's chief market strategist expects a similarly good performance this year. The S & P 500 is up more than 6% so far this quarter and more than 14% year to date. A continuation of those trends could lead the S & P 500 to an all-time high in the second half of the year, Detrick said. "The realization that the economy's on better footing could be the spark plug to keep the surprise summer rally going," Detrick said.

Persons: Carson, July's, Ryan Detrick, There's, we've, there's, Detrick Organizations: Carson Group, Stock, Federal Reserve

☆ Market momentum wanes heading into the final week of June after monster rally in the first half
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Against this backdrop, investors will head into the final week of June with a relatively light economic calendar. However, those few data sets could provide investors with clues on how the market will fare going into the second half. Key inflation data ahead Of note next week is the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Reports to watch out for include Tuesday's new home sales and Thursday's pending home sales data, both for May. Elsewhere, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky warned this week the downside for tech names could be as "equally impressive" as their rally.

Persons: Jerome Powell, annualized, Dow Jones, Terry Sandven, Sandven, that's, Megan Horneman, Stephen Suttmeier, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Art Hogan, Hogan, Mills, Paychex Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Global Wealth Management, Americas, UBS, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Verdence Capital Advisors, Bank of America, Dow, Riley Wealth Management, Fed, Walgreens, Micron, Nike, Constellation Brands

☆ Wall Street prepares for more gains this month after past week's breakout
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For now, it's not a brighter economic picture or an exuberant earnings outlook pushing stocks higher. Another reason that some investors have come back to stocks is simply because the S & P 500 ended the week more than 23% above last October's low. "The next level of resistance is above 4,500 on the S & P. Historically, the market gains 14.5% on average between the 20% threshold level and the next decline of 5% or more. "Inflation peaked in June of last year and has been rapidly declining over the past 12 months. Trading the week after is often treacherous, Hirsch said, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling in 27 of the past 33 years and the S & P 500 down in 23 of 33 years.

Persons: it's, Sam Stovall, Clinton, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Jay Hatfield, Price, CarMax, Stovall, Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, Dow Jones Industrials, York Fed's John Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Avid Bioservices, Patterson Cos, Christopher Waller, Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert, Alex Harring Organizations: Fed, CFRA, Microsoft, Infrastructure Capital Management, Consumer, PPI, FedEx, Darden, Dow, Housing, Financial, Enerpac, Avid, Banking, Accenture, Commercial Metals, P, PMI Locations: New York, York, Dublin

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street looks toward winning week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures also both traded down almost 0.1%. The moves follow a winning session on Wall Street as investors bet interest rate hikes were coming to an end after the Federal Reserve announced it would not increase rates at its meeting this week. Up nearly 3%, the S&P 500 is on pace to notch its best weekly performance since March. However, expiration week often tends to be higher during bull markets and lower in bear markets, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. That may bode well at least for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which are posting strong weeks thus far.

Persons: Dow, Sam Stovall, bode Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Virgin Galactic, Adobe, Wall, CFRA Locations: New York City, UnitedHealth

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