A few facts worth considering:By the time the 2009 revisions came out (824,000 jobs were overstated), the National Bureau of Economic Research had already declared a recession six months earlier.
(It would subsequently be revised higher in the two of those quarters, one of which was revised higher to show growth, rather than contraction.
As a signal that job growth has been overstated by an average of 68,000 per month during the revision period, it is more or less accurate.
In the cutting process, the Fed will follow growth and jobs data more closely, just as it monitored inflation data more closely in the hiking process.
The jobs data could be subject to noise from immigrant hiring and can be volatile.
Persons:
payrolls, Goldman Sachs
Organizations:
Amerant, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman
Locations:
Florida, Sunrise , Florida