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☆ Instant View: Solid April US jobs report undermines case for Fed cut soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN“It's definitely telling you that the job market is still hot. PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK“It was a hotter than expected report, it certainly didn’t show any cooling in the labor market. Hourly earnings were a little higher than I was looking for.”“Bottom line, this is a strong report and shows that the labor market is resilient. So I think the real focus is on the inflation numbers, and what's happening with wage growth. We are hopeful the continued strength of the jobs market and signs of slowing inflation will ease market volatility in the coming months.

☆ US regional lenders notch modest gains after two-day slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) shares gained 2.1% in early trading after tumbling 28% to close at their lowest level on record on Tuesday. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) rose 1% after closing at its lowest level since December 2020. Evercore ISI analysts lowered their 2023 earnings outlook for regional lenders. The brokerage now estimates a nearly 1%decline from a year earlier, compared to an already lowered expectations of a 4% growth, blaming it on intensifying funding cost pressures amid declining regional bank deposits. Meanwhile, short sellers have pocketed $1.2 billion in paper profits betting against regional lenders in the first two days of May, with Truist Financial Corp (TFC.N) and PacWest generating the highest gains, analytics firm Ortex said.

☆ Instant View: US March PCE price index shows high, but cooling, inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.1% in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February. "Will the Fed raise rates at the May meeting. I don't think it'll influence them one way or another but we expect them to raise rates again. I don’t think it’s going to impact the Fed much if at all.

A Labor Department report showed producer prices rose 2.7% in March, on a year-over-year basis, below economists' estimates of a 3% rise. The dollar and Treasury yields slid as investors mostly stuck to expectations of the 25-bps hike after Thursday's data. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to record a profit decline of 5.2% in the first quarter, as per Refinitiv IBES data, in what could be their worst showing since the third quarter of 2020. Financial companies that are part of the S&P 500 are expected to report a profit growth of 4.3% in the first quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 62 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.5 points, or 0.30%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 60.75 points, or 0.47%.

A Labor Department report showed producer prices unexpectedly fell in March as the cost of gasoline declined, and there were signs that underlying producer inflation was subsiding. Jobless claims were also favorable news for the Fed," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday after data showed consumer prices rose at a slower-than-expected pace in March, however, core prices remained sticky and supported the case for another 25-basis point rate hike by the Fed in May. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to record a profit decline of 5.2% in the first quarter, as per Refinitiv IBES data, in what could be their worst showing since the third quarter of 2020. Financial companies that are part of the S&P 500 are expected to report a profit growth of 4.3% in the first quarter.

☆ US March CPI comes in on the cool side
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Year to date, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest 12-month gain since May 2021. "The data was a little bit better than what was expected, so that tells me that the bond market is saying that the probability of this next rate hike has decreased just a little bit." "The other number that's important is the PPI number that comes out this week. That will probably change a little bit today as people digest this data, maybe even within the next half an hour or so." It weakens the argument for a pause.”“Futures are going up based on the topline number, that’s what markets are focusing on.”“Inflation is cooling down.

Hopes that the Fed will soon end its aggressive monetary policy tightening have helped the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) stabilize so far in April after the collapse of two U.S. mid-sized lenders sparked a selloff last month. This marks a shift in traders' bets of a pause in the Fed's policy tightening after recent weak economic data raised the possibility of a U.S. recession. Data on Wednesday is expected to show consumer prices grew 5.2% in March after a 6.0% rise in February. Analysts expect first-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies to fall 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the year, according to Refinitiv data. ET, Dow e-minis were up 24 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2.25 points, or 0.02%.

Losses in megacap stocks such as Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, while gains in industrial stocks such as Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) boosted the Dow. Hopes that the Fed will soon end its aggressive monetary policy tightening helped the S&P 500 stabilize so far in April after the collapse of two U.S. mid-sized lenders sparked a selloff last month. Analysts expect first-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies to fall 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the year, according to Refinitiv data. Seven of the 11 major S&P sectors rose, with gains in industrial (.SPLRCI) and material (.SPLRCM) shares offsetting losses in technology (.SPLRCT) stocks. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 32 new highs and 30 new lows.

☆ Instant View: US Feb PCE price index shows inflation keeps cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3% last month after accelerating 0.6% in January. In the 12 months through February, the PCE price index advanced 5.0% after rising 5.3% in January. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index climbed 0.3% after increasing 0.5% in January. The core PCE price index rose 4.6% year-on-year after gaining 4.7% in January. There is some structural inflation that's coming down as well so that's good news and that's going in the right direction."

SummarySummary Companies February PCE data due at 8:30 am ETVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures mixed: Dow up 0.23%, S&P up 0.19%, Nasdaq flatMarch 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Friday as investors awaited inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release the February reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 76 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.01%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Larger peers Bank of America (BAC.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) rose between 0.7% and 1%. "Markets are calmer as the tension of the banking situation is lessening. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's fear gauge, fell to its lowest since March 9, reflecting easing investor anxiety. ET, Dow e-minis were up 216 points, or 0.66%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.81%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 114.25 points, or 0.9%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Larger peers Bank of America (BAC.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) rose between 0.7% and 1.6% in premarket trade. "Markets are calmer as the tension of the banking situation is lessening. A key inflation reading expected at the end of the week will provide more clues on the Fed's monetary tightening plans. ET, Dow e-minis were up 244 points, or 0.75%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 35.25 points, or 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 109.25 points, or 0.86%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

However, regional banks pared early gains in premarket trading on Wednesday, with First Republic Bank (FRC.N) down 0.7%. Big U.S. banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) fell between 1.2% and 2.3%. ET, which is expected to show a moderation in producer price growth in February both on a monthly and annual basis. ET, Dow e-minis were down 517 points, or 1.61%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 63 points, or 1.61%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 162 points, or 1.33%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shubham Batra in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Instant View: U.S. February CPI increase leaves market guessing on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Core CPI without food and energy prices increased 0.5% after rising 0.4% in January. Year over year core CPI gained 5.5% vs 5.6% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast monthly CPI and core CPI up 0.4%. So they're going to have to respond to the banking crisis that's probably just not over yet." If the Fed’s worried about saving face or coming off as wishy washy or worried about losing credibility with the market, they're going to raise by 25 basis points.

☆ Sliding bank shares drag Wall Street down in choppy trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( David Carnevali | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But many speculated the central bank could now become less hawkish, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury tumbled. Shares of SVB's peer Signature Bank (SBNY.O), which was also shut down by regulators, were halted. Weighing on the S&P 500, Charles Schwab (SCHW.N) tumbled 11.56% upon resuming trade after the financial services company reported a 28% decline in average margin balances and a 4% fall in total client assets for February. Shares of big U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N), and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) all lost ground. The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 48 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 29 new highs and 526 new lows.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended March 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. "This could be a game changer for today's market," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. The gains pushed up the S&P 500 communication services (.SPLRCL), consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and information technology (.SPLRCT) sectors between 0.4% and 0.6%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.64-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.06-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded four new 52-week highs and 11 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 28 new highs and 54 new lows.

Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. The three main U.S. stock indexes rallied on Friday and notched weekly gains as yields pulled back from their peaks after comments from Fed policymakers calmed jitters around aggressive rate hikes. Traders expect at least three more 25-basis-point hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at 5.44% by September from 4.67% now. ET, to assess the impact of higher rates on the manufacturing sector. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Data showed the U.S. trade deficit in goods increased moderately in January, with both imports and exports rising solidly. FEDWATCHBofA Global Research warned the Fed could even hike interest rates to nearly 6%. "We're talking about stickier inflation in the economy and higher interest rates for longer. ET, Dow e-minis were up 43 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 3.5 points, or 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2.25 points, or 0.02%. The three main indexes are headed for monthly declines, with the blue-chip Dow (.DJI) in the red for the year.

☆ Wall St set for higher open as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Fed minutes due at 2:00 p.m. U.S. stocks shed more than 2% on Tuesday as investors worried that a rebound in U.S. business activity in February could mean interest rates might need to stay higher for longer. ET (1900 GMT), are expected to detail the breadth of debate at the central bank over how much further interest rates may need to be raised to slow inflation. However, stocks have had a volatile run in February as traders priced in higher interest rates for longer, considering inflation remains above the 2% target in the face of a sturdy economy. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023.

☆ Wall St inches higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Fed minutes due at 2:00 p.m. U.S. stocks shed more than 2% on Tuesday after a rebound in business activity in February stoked fears of interest rates staying higher for longer. "We expect all indicators to point to the Fed remaining hawkish in its inflation fight." However, stocks have had a volatile run in February as traders priced in higher interest rates for longer, considering inflation remains elevated in the face of a sturdy economy. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023.

SummarySummary Companies Retail sales up 3% in Jan vs. est. A Commerce Department report showed retail sales surged 3% in January, driven by purchases of motor vehicles and other goods. "These numbers (retail sales) beat consensus by a long shot and it just shows that the consumer is still in a good spot," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. Of the more than half of the S&P 500 firms that have reported results so far, nearly 70% have topped profit expectations, as per Refinitiv data. ET, Dow e-minis were down 82 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 11.25 points, or 0.27%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 25.5 points, or 0.2%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) recovered after a weak open, boosted by 4% gains in Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O). Ten of the 11 major S&P sectors rose, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT) leading the gains. "I don't think (this report) moves the needle for the Fed, and I suspect they're taking a hard look at the data. The rally, however, stalled last week on signs of a tight labor market and hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers. Money market traders have priced in at least two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at 5.2% by July.

Futures were volatile after the Labor Department report showed consumer prices climbed 0.5% in January following a 0.1% rise in December. That was the smallest gain since October 2021 but slightly above market forecast of a 6.2% rise. "I don't think (this report) moves the needle for the Fed, and I suspect they're taking a hard look at the data. Money market traders have priced in at least two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at 5.2% by July. Coca-Cola Co (KO.N) slipped 0.4% despite a strong full-year profit forecast from the soda maker.

☆ January CPI accelerates, but trend easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Data for December was revised higher to show the CPI gaining 0.1% instead of the 0.1% fall as previously reported. “It's not going to necessarily influence the Federal Reserve one way or another. "You have a little bit of a negative reaction because these numbers are not going to take the pressure off the Federal Reserve. "The real issue is what is the Federal Reserve going to do, it's pretty widely expected that they're going to raise rates both at their March meeting as well as their May meeting. "There's not much there for the Federal Reserve to give them some sort of a justification for taking their foot off the brake and reducing interest rates."

Futures got a lift after data showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4. The data comes on the heels of a strong January employment report that rattled markets last week. "There are so many companies that are laying off people and that eventually is going to weaken the job market. ET, Dow e-minis were up 213 points, or 0.63%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33 points, or 0.8%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 160.5 points, or 1.28%. Ralph Lauren Corp (RL.N) gained 2.4% after beating quarterly revenue expectations on resilient demand for its high-end clothing and accessories.

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