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☆ Davos: A mountain of debt and a wave of elections. World leaders are hamstrung
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.

Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, ”, Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland

☆ Moody’s warns it may downgrade China
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Laura He | Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The lowering of its outlook does not automatically mean the ratings agency will downgrade China’s creditworthiness, but it increases the chances. Analysts say the property downturn is likely to drag on, hobbling China’s growth prospects for years. Slower growth, weaker demographicsMoody’s expects China’s annual economic growth rate to slow to 4% in both 2024 and 2025, and average 3.8% a year from 2026 to 2030. “The affirmation of the A1 rating reflects China’s financial and institutional resources to manage the transition in an orderly fashion,” the agency said. “Its economy’s vast size and robust, albeit slowing, potential growth rate, support its high shock-absorption capacity.”China’s Finance Ministry said Tuesday it was “disappointed” with Moody’s decision to downgrade the country’s credit outlook.

Persons: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN — Moody’s, China’s, Moody’s, “, Hong, Seng, Anna Cooban Organizations: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN, China’s Finance, CSI Locations: China, Hong Kong / New Delhi, China’s, “, Shanghai, Shenzhen

☆ Moody's cuts China credit outlook, citing lower growth, property risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru

☆ Moody's cut China's credit outlook to negative on rising debt risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, while expecting China annual GDP growth to slow to 4% in 2024 and 2025 and average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030. Structural factors including weak demographics will drive a decline to 3.5% by 2030, it said. China credit default swaps (the cost of insuring against a government default) rose 4 basis points from Monday's closing level, according to Reuters data. Beijing disappointmentChina's Finance Ministry expressed its disappointment with Moody's downgrade decision. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects and fiscal sustainability are unnecessary," the ministry said in a statement Tuesday.

Persons: Javier Ghersi, Moody's Organizations: China's, Ministry Locations: China, Beijing

Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The White House said on Friday it was prepared to "pause" sanctions relief for OPEC member Venezuela in coming days unless there is further progress on the release of Venezuelan political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans. Any “snapback” of partially lifted U.S. sanctions would mark a major shift from President Joe Biden's new approach toward Venezuela. In the most significant lifting of tough Trump-era sanctions, Washington issued a six-month general license authorizing U.S. transactions with Venezuela’s vital oil and gas sector and a second license authorizing operations of state gold mining company Minerven. Washington had vowed to reverse that sanctions relief unless the Venezuela's Socialist government took steps by the end of November to release political prisoners and three Americans it considers unlawfully jailed, and also lift public-office bans on opposition candidates. The Venezuelan government released five political prisoners in October but there have been no releases since.

Persons: Nicolas Maduro, John Kirby, Joe Biden's, Washington, “, ” Kirby, ”, we're, Kirby, Maria Corina Machado, Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, Mayela Armas, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Venezuelan, White House, Trump, Socialist, Thomson Locations: Venezuela, Venezuelan, Maduro, Washington, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Caracas

☆ US Threatening to Reimpose Venezuelan Sanctions if Commitments Not Kept
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Nov. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +3 min

The Biden administration reiterated that it has told the Venezuelan government it must, by the end of November, lay out steps for lifting election bans on opposition candidates and begin releasing Venezuelan political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans, the spokesperson said. If the U.S. deems Maduro's actions insufficient, it was not immediately clear how extensively or quickly it would roll back sanctions relief. "We haven’t seen any progress yet," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters earlier on Thursday when asked whether Maduro was meeting his commitments and if the U.S. was prepared to reimpose sanctions. The Venezuelan government may allow appeals from banned politicians to progress in court as a way to partially comply with U.S. demands, sources told Reuters this week. The Venezuelan government released five political prisoners in October but there have been no releases since.

Persons: Matt Spetalnick WASHINGTON, Nicolas Maduro, Joe Biden's, Biden, Antony Blinken, Maduro, November's, Jorge Rodriguez, John Kirby, Maria Corina Machado, Matt Spetalnick, Vivian Sequera, Chris Reese, Josie Kao Organizations: State Department, Venezuelan, The State Department, U.S, House Locations: U.S, Venezuela, Venezuelan, Washington, Caracas

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in November from 49.5 in October, staying below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The new orders sub index contracted for a second consecutive month, while the new export orders component extended its decline for a ninth month. "Today's PMI reading will further raise expectations towards policy support," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. "Fiscal policy will be under the spotlight and take centre stage over the coming year and will be closely monitored by the market." Factory PMI has contracted for seven out of the past eight months - rising above the 50-point mark only in September.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Zhou Hao, Joe Cash, Kim Coghill, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: cnsphoto, REUTERS, National Bureau, Statistics, Standard Chartered, PMI, Guotai, Thomson Locations: Zunyi, Guizhou province, China, BEIJING

☆ Sri Lanka reaches debt restructuring deal with creditor nations - government source
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Uditha Jayasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Sri Lanka has been informed of an agreement," the source, who did not want to be identified, said. The Sri Lanka president's office and the finance ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Japan co-chairs the official creditor committee, together with France and India. China is Sri Lanka's largest bilateral creditor and is an observer in the group, steering clear of joining the group as a formal member. The ADB's funds are part of a $350 million special policy-based loan that was approved in May to support Sri Lanka.

Persons: Nandalal Weerasinghe, Takafumi Kadono, Sudipto Ganguly, Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reuters, Export, Import Bank of China, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, ADB, Thomson Locations: COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Japan, France, India, China, Sri Lanka's, Colombo, Sri

☆ China economy: PBOC governor says focus will be on ‘high-quality, sustainable’ growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“High-quality, sustainable growth is far more important.”The country is moving away from manufacturing and real estate, its traditional drivers of growth, towards a newer economic model driven by consumption and services, he added. “I’m confident China will enjoy healthy and sustainable growth in 2024 and beyond.”His remarks come at a time when China is battling a protracted recession in its vast real estate sector. But the country’s real estate sector is still struggling with sluggish sales and falling home prices. “China’s real estate market is experiencing some adjustments,” he said. The regulators have also introduced a raft of measures to stabilise the real estate industry, including reducing mortgage rates for home buyers.

Persons: Pan Gongsheng, “, Pan, “ I’m, ”, Stringer Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of, “, Getty Locations: Hong Kong, “ China, People’s Bank of China, China, “, Fuyang, China's, Anhui, AFP, Wuhan, Hubei

☆ China needs to unblock, sustain financial channels for private firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Private firms, which account for 60% of China's gross domestic product and 80% of urban jobs, were hurt by three years of COVID curbs and a regulatory crackdown that targeted sectors from technology to private tutoring. Banking and financial institutions should set annual service targets for private enterprises, increase the weight of related businesses serving private enterprises in performance appraisal and gradually increase the proportion of loans to private enterprises, it said. China should also expand private firms' bond financing and guide financial institutions to expand the bond financing scale of private enterprises, according to the statement. China should back the listing, mergers and acquisitions, and reorganisation of private enterprises, including supporting qualified companies in going public overseas, it said. Fixed-asset investment by private firms fell 0.6% in January-September year-on-year, highlighting weak private sector confidence.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Ryan Woo, Ziyi Tang, Kevin Yao, Christopher Cushing Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Banking, Garden Holdings, HK, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING

☆ Exclusive: China govt advisers call for steady growth target in 2024, more stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Five of the seven advisers who spoke with Reuters said they favoured a target of around 5%, matching this year's goal. The proposals will be made next month at the ruling Communist Party's annual Central Economic Work Conference that discusses policy plans and the outlook for the world's second-largest economy. "We need to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand," Yu Yongding, a government economist who advocates for a growth target of roughly 5%, told Reuters. "We are stepping up fiscal policy support," said another adviser, to make the "difficult" 2024 target "achievable." The stuttering post-COVID recovery has prompted many analysts to call for structural reforms that tilt the drivers of economic growth away from property and infrastructure investment and towards household consumption and market-allocation of resources.

Persons: Yu Yongding, Yu, Guan Tao, Xi Jinping, Kevin Yao, Marius Zaharia Organizations: Reuters, Communist, Economic Work Conference, BOC International, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Beijing, outflows, Japan

☆ Euro zone's shadow banks face risk of margin calls, ECB says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Euro zone shadow banks face the risk of receiving large margin calls or client redemptions they cannot meet because they do not have enough cash on hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Wednesday. The ECB said liquidity buffers among shadow banks - an umbrella term for funds, insurers and other non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFI) - were "very low", exposing them to the risk of running out cash at times of market stress. Insurance companies and pension funds (ICPF) that use derivatives could be exposed to the risk of "large margin calls", the ECB added, citing those suffered by their UK peers last year as a precedent. "Any sharp increase in sovereign bond yields or a spike in financial market volatility could expose those ICPFs which use interest rate derivatives to large margin calls," the ECB said. The central bank reiterated its call for introducing regulation for shadow banks like the one that governs traditional lenders, including liquidity requirements and stress tests.

Persons: Francesco Canepa, Mark Potter Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Insurance, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

☆ Zambia's troubled debt restructuring efforts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Zambia's debt restructuring has been a complex, three-year process, which suffered a serious setback on Monday when bilateral creditors, including China, effectively ordered it secure more debt relief from international funds that hold its sovereign bonds. 2020: The country requests to have its debt payments frozen under the G20-led Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) due to COVID-19. In May, Zambian President Edgar Lungu’s government hires French firm Lazard to advise on restructuring the cash-strapped southern African nation’s $11 billion worth of foreign debts. 2022: Negotiations continue with bondholders for debt relief and restructuring deals. Angry bondholders say the OCC is demanding debt relief from them that is materially higher than either Zambia's government or the International Monetary Fund deem necessary.

Persons: Yuri Gripas, Edgar Lungu’s, Lazard, Lungu’s, Hakainde Hichilema, Marc Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Zambian, China, Export, Import Bank of China, OCC, International, Fund, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, China, Zambia

The South American country's markets are closed on Monday for a local holiday, so will only fully trade on Tuesday. Overseas-listed sovereign bonds and some equities will trade, mainly in Europe and the United States. In his first speech Milei pledged speedy reforms to fix an economy mired in crisis. If Milei can convince the market that the chainsaw (fiscal discipline) is the heart and soul of his presidency then bonds rally," he said. But he still faces a divided Congress where his Liberty Advances bloc only has a small share of seats.

Persons: Javier Milei's, Sergio Massa, Juan Manuel Pazos, Milei, Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich, Martin Castellano, Walter Stoeppelwerth, Gletir, Gustavo Ber, Jorgelina, Walter Bianchi, Jorge Otaola, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Peronist, FX, Institute of International Finance, Liberty, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Argentine, American, Europe, United States, Buenos Aires, Rosario

☆ Argentina investors on edge as Milei decides who to put in economic hot seat
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | Thomson Reuters | Jorgelina Do Rosario Is Emerging Markets Correspondent At Reuters Based In London | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Who is appointed...as central bank president and economy minister, and the details of an urgent economic stabilization plan without a majority in Congress, will be the key for asset prices in the days ahead." The Economy Ministry is always a hot seat, with Argentina a nine-time debt defaulter caught in a decades-long boom-and-bust cycle. Milei will take office on Dec. 10 after beating ruling Peronist coalition Economy Minister Sergio Massa. "Milei said that he is going to reorganize the central bank instead of imploding it or shutting it down. The new economy minister will have to negotiate a new programme with the IMF "relatively quickly" to avoid entering arrears with the fund, Morgan Stanley said on Monday.

Persons: Milei, Macri, Javier Milei, Milei's, embolden Milei, Armando Armenta, defaulter, Sergio Massa, Hans Humes, Humes, Carlos Rodriguez, Roque Fernandez, Dario Epstein, Emilio Ocampo, Mauricio Macri, Juan Manuel Pazos, Pazos, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley ´, Massa, Jorgelina, Adam Jourdan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Monetary, Ministry, Peronist, Economy, Greylock Capital Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, South, AllianceBernstein, New York, Argentina, Argentine, Buenos Aires, Washington, refinance, Santiago del Estero, Formosa, Rosario

☆ Morning Bid: Treasury yields dive as oil craters, economy softens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. two-year Treasury yields skidded below 4.80% on Friday for the first time since September 1, with 10-year yields dropping under 4.40% to September lows too. Crude has now lost almost 25% in just six weeks - aided by the U.S. gradually lifting oil sanctions on Venezuela. The Labor Department said import prices fell a whopping 0.8% in October, the most in seven months amid a broad decline in the costs of goods - deepening the annual deflation of import prices to as much as 2.0%. Even though the dollar (.DXY), , is taking a hit from the plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, the drop in sovereign borrowing rates was mirrored across the world in Europe , even Japan . Mirroring the softening demand picture elsewhere, British retail sales volumes fell unexpectedly in October as stretched consumers stayed at home.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, plumb, Morgan, Susan Collins, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Dave Ramsden, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Walmart, Cisco, Alibaba, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Treasury, Hong, Housing, Atlanta, Boston Federal, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Bank of England, United States, APEC, Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Wall, Alibaba ., Venezuela, Europe, Japan, HK, Hong Kong, China, San Francisco

Rather, asset managers increasingly position these as now a feature of global investing choices rather than all-consuming shocks per se. Likely for the same reason, geopolitical risk monitors are at their highest in over 18 months too. Ebbing demand from a Chinese economy hobbled by property busts and a foreign investment withdrawal due to U.S. investment curbs also hurts. The VIX (.VIX) index of U.S. stock volatility is currently five points below its historic average 19 - and even July VIX futures hover on that mean. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersReporting by Mike Dolan Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: there's, Washington's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, What's, Melissa Brown, Axioma, Andrew McCaffery, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Barclays, Global CIO, Fidelity, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Israel, United States, India, Taiwan, Mexico, Britain, Gaza, Russia, China, Wall

[1/2] FILE PHOTO: Robotic arms assemble cars in the production line for Leapmotor's electric vehicles at a factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, April 26, 2023. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose 7.6% in October, quickening from a 5.5% gain in September and hitting the fastest growth since May. Analysts had expected retail sales to grow 7.0% due to the low base effect in 2022 when COVID curbs disrupted consumers and businesses. The PBOC has cut banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) twice this year to free up liquidity to aid the economic recovery. Fixed asset investment expanded 2.9% in the first 10 months from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.1% rise.

Persons: Xing Zhaopeng, Albee Zhang, Liangping Gao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, Analysts, ANZ, People's Bank of China, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, Rights BEIJING, quickening

☆ Some fund managers see merit in China's deeply discounted stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. asset manager Fidelity International is highlighting China's looser monetary policy and the government's recent 1 trillion yuan ($137.10 billion) borrowing-and-spending sovereign bond plan as a tailwind for the country's stock markets. London-based £3 billion fund manager Somerset Capital Management likewise finds China exciting. The stock market has yet to recover, but has stabilised. Morgan Stanley estimates long-only foreign investors now have their deepest underweight positions in China and Hong Kong equities in years. Chinese stocks could see a short-term sentiment pick-up given foreign funds have such light positions in the market, said Redmond Wong, Greater China market strategist at Saxo Markets.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Marty Dropkin, Mark Williams, Morgan Stanley, Patrick Ghali, Sean Ho, Vivek Tanneeru, Redmond Wong, Summer Zhen, Xie Yu, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Fidelity, Asia Pacific, Fidelity International . London, Somerset Capital Management, Nasdaq, Japan’s Nikkei, Sussex Partners, Hong, China, Hang Seng Tech, Monetary Fund, Cambridge Associates, Capital, “, Triata, Matthews Asia, Saxo Markets, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, China, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, London, Boston, San Francisco, Greater China

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. ET (1500 GMT) with a 152 strike price, analysts said. The dollar shot to 151.92 yen at 9:42 a.m. (1442 GMT), its highest level since October 2022, and then tumbled to 151.20 minutes after the strike price. Earlier, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The yen is down almost 14% against the dollar this year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Marc Chandler, It's, Chandler, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sterling, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan, Bannockburn Global, United Auto Workers, Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon, British, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Dollar rallies to fresh one-year high against a beaten-down yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | Thomson Reuters | Senior Correspondent On The London Markets Team Covering European Sovereign Bond Markets | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The comments had little immediate impact on the yen, which is down almost 14% against the dollar this year. "Given the move in U.S. Treasuries of course the yen is not rallying yet," he said, referring to U.S. bond yields. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Sterling, inched, Rishi Sunak, Kit Juckes, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Finance, British, Generale, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO

☆ China can raise 2024 budget deficit ratio to spur growth - c.bank adviser
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A man wearing a mask walks past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, in Beijing, China, February 3, 2020. A higher budget deficit next year will help drive the country's economic recovery, he said. Last month, China sharply lifted its 2023 budget deficit to around 3.8% of gross domestic product from 3% because of the planned issuance of 1 trillion yuan ($137.14 billion) in sovereign bonds. China is able to achieve economic growth of slightly above 5% this year, Wang said. Weak external demand and inadequate domestic demand increase overcapacity pressures in China, Wang said.

Persons: Jason Lee, Wang Yiming, Wang, Ellen Zhang, Kevin Yao, Christopher Cushing Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING

☆ China's consumer prices dip back into decline amid limp demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China's consumer prices swung back into contraction and factory-gate deflation persisted in October as domestic demand struggled, weighing on the outlook for any broader-based recovery in the world's second-largest economy. The headline figure was dragged by a further slump in pork prices, down 30.1%, speeding up from a 22% slide in September, amid an oversupply of pigs and weak demand. Consumer prices slipped into deflation in July and returned to positive territory in August but were flat in September. "The data shows combating persistent disinflation amid weak demand remains a challenge for Chinese policymakers," said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle. "We expect China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2023, in accordance with the target set by authorities, followed by 4.0% growth in 2024 and 2025," said Moody's on Thursday.

Persons: China's, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Jones, Authorities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, West

☆ IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

People wait to board trains at the Shanghai Hongqiao railway station ahead of the National Day holiday, in Shanghai, China September 28, 2023. GDP growth could slow to 4.6% in 2024 because of continued weakness in China's property sector and subdued external demand, the IMF said in a press release, albeit better than its October expectation of 4.2% in the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The combination of the downturn in the property sector and local government debt crunch could wipe out much of China's long-term growth potential, economists say. Local debt has reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China's economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. China should also develop a comprehensive restructuring strategy to reduce the debt level of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), she said.

Persons: Aly, IMF's, Gita Gopinath, Gopinath, LGFVs, Joe Cash, Ryan Woo, Edmund Klamann, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund, China's, Communist Party, Thomson Locations: Shanghai Hongqiao, Shanghai, China, Rights BEIJING, Gopinath

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