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☆ 10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024, according to a chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok laid out 10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024. AdvertisementAdd Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok to the growing chorus of people skeptical the US will see a rate cut this year. "As a result, the Fed will not cut rates this year, and rates are going to stay higher for longer." Underlying inflation trends are moving higher, not coolingBLS, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist3. RB of Atlanta, NFIB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Slok, —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, BEA, Haver, RB Locations: Atlanta, NFIB

☆ Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than they did pre-COVID to comfortably afford a house in this market, Zillow says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than they did pre-COVID to comfortably afford a house in the current market, Zillow found. "The math has changed for hopeful buyers, who are more often partnering with friends and family or 'house hacking' their way to homeownership," a Zillow analyst wrote. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . According to a new report from Zillow, homebuyers today need to make north of $106,000 to comfortably afford a house in this market.

Persons: Zillow, haven't, — Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Zillow

☆ Declining boomer ownership will free up 9.2 million homes by 2035, Freddie Mac says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Declining boomer ownership will free up 9.2 million homes by 2035, a Freddie Mac report found. The 32 million homes owned by boomers will drop to 23 million by 2035, when the oldest members of the group are pushing 90. A new report from Freddie Mac estimates that declining homeownership for the group will free up 9.2 million homes by 2035. The generation accounts for about 21% of the total US population, but they own 38% of American homes, Freddie Mac found. The 32 million homes owned by the generation as of 2022 will drop to 23 million in 2035, when the oldest boomers will be close to 90 years old.

Persons: Freddie Mac, —, Meredith Whitney Organizations: Service, American Consumer Survey

☆ 5 indicators showing the economy isn't as strong as people think, according to top economist Dave Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Top economist David Rosenberg says that's not necessarily true. In a recent research note, he listed five indicators that challenge the narrative that the economy is booming. But top economist David Rosenberg says not so fast. The Rosenberg Research president says that while many people are touting strong GDP, job-market, and consumer-spending data, red flags remain. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: David Rosenberg, that's, Rosenberg, —, There's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business

☆ The odds of a US recession are 'vanishingly low,' Wells Fargo head macro strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The US is likely to avoid slipping into a recession, according to Wells Fargo head macro strategist Michael Schumacher. "We at Wells Fargo think that chance is vanishingly low at this point." This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, Wells, Michael Schumacher Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells

☆ A US soft landing would only be possible through fiscal measures like student-loan forgiveness and tax cuts, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If the US wants a soft landing, it needs to enact fiscal measures like student-loan forgiveness and tax cuts, Piper Sandler's chief global economist said. "There could easily be an additional 1.5% boost to GDP from fiscal stimulus this year," she wrote. AdvertisementIf the US economy wants to stick a soft landing, the government is going to have to loosen the purse strings. There are three times in history that the US has been able to nail a soft landing: 1967, 1985, and 1995. "Easing amid material fiscal stimulus risks repeating the Martin Fed's mistake...which set the stage for the 1970s' disastrous inflation cycle," she wrote.

Persons: Piper, Nancy Lazar, —, Piper Sandler's, Lazar, doling, Smith, Bill Martin, Martin Organizations: Drivers, Service, Congressional, Bloomberg, Fed, US

☆ Russia's war with Ukraine has its economy facing 'death by a thousand cuts,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's war with Ukraine has its economy facing "death by a thousand cuts," a British economist wrote. Russia's economy seems to be getting along amid its protracted war in Ukraine and harsh sanctions from the West, but that can't go on forever, according to one economist. "Russia's economy faces death by a thousand cuts," British economist Roger Bootle wrote in the Telegraph on Sunday. In spite of heavy sanctions, Russia's economy actually grew 3.6% last year, faster than most countries in Europe, Bootle noted. War spending is booming, and as war production rises, its gains spill into other pockets of the economy.

Persons: Roger Bootle, Bootle Locations: Ukraine, British, Russia, Europe, Bootle

☆ The Fed may not cut rates at all this year because high rates 'aren't hurting much,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed may not cut rates at all this year because high rates "aren't hurting much," according to analyst Jim Bianco. The opposite of what the Fed needs to administer a cut is playing out, he said. AdvertisementOne prominent Wall Street analyst says the US might sail through 2024 with no rate cuts from the Fed at all. He says that's because, as high as interest rates are, they're not doing that much damage. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Jim Bianco, —, " Bianco, they're Organizations: Service, Wall, Bloomberg, Business

☆ The era of the Magnificent 7 is over, says the analyst who invented the term
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It was a good run, but the era of the Magnificent Seven is over for the stock market. "I don't see these seven names rising together," said the analyst who coined the nickname for the group. AdvertisementThe Magnificent Seven are looking a little less magnificent, and aren't really even a band of seven anymore. In a note titled "R.I.P the Magnificent Seven Era," Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist from Jones Trading, said the group's dominance over the stock market is coming to a close. Back in April 2023, when O'Rourke invented the moniker (although some say it was BofA's Michael Hartnett who coined the term), the Magnificent Seven contributed to a stunning 88% of year-to-date gains.

Persons: —, aren't, Mike O'Rourke, O'Rourke, BofA's Michael Hartnett, Michael Hartnett, That's, it's, " O'Rourke, Tesla, Dan Niles, Satori, Niles Organizations: Service, Jones, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Companies, Satori Fund, Google, CNBC Locations: China

☆ Economists are the most skeptical they've been since 2022 about a recession striking
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Economists place the odds of a recession this year at around 40% — the lowest since January 2022, a new Bloomberg survey found. Respondents lifted their forecasts for GDP, consumer spending, private investment, and government expenditures compared to a survey last month. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In a new Bloomberg survey, economists place the odds of a recession this year at around 40% — the lowest since January 2022. The respondents lifted their forecasts for GDP, consumer spending, private investment, and government expenditures compared to a survey last month.

Persons: — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Business

☆ A booming stock market means homebuyers will be more tolerant of high mortgage rates, Compass CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A strong US stock market means homebuyers are more tolerant of high mortgage rates, Compass CEO Robert Refkin said. Mortgage rates have been climbing back up towards 8% after hotter inflation data and delayed Fed rate cuts. But "you don't need 6% mortgage rates when the stock market is at an all-time high," says Refkin. "You don't need 6% mortgage rates when the stock market is at an all-time high," Robert Refkin, Compass CEO said on CNBC on Thursday. Mortgage rates have gone back north of 7% in recent months after tumbling from recent peaks of more than 8% in October.

Persons: Robert Refkin, — Organizations: Service, Compass, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: Seattle

☆ VCs are clamoring to back 'screaming hot' startups using AI for medical records
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Rebecca Torrence | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Another AI medical records startup, DeepScribe, raised a $30 million Series A round in January 2022. AbridgeThe investor descent on medical-scribe startups reflects a blatant potential of automation tech to alleviate healthcare’s most critical issues. “This market is screaming hot,” said Bryan Roberts, a partner at Venrock and an investor in medical-scribe startup Suki. AdvertisementStill, as health systems increasingly adopt AI solutions to manage labor costs, these startups have room to grow into their valuations. Medical-scribe startups vying for the remaining slice of the pie are “in a pitch to the death,” Roberts said.

Persons: —, ’, Kleiner Perkins, Andreessen Horowitz, Suki, Punit Soni, Shiv Rao, ”, Bryan Roberts, ” Roberts, Annie Case, Case, Hermann, Keith Srakocic, Roberts, there’s, “ Organizations: Service, Business, Healthcare, Fund, Optum Ventures, Medical, Cathay Innovation, Microsoft, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, University of Kansas Health, AP

☆ The number of home sales per real estate agent is at its lowest level in over a decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, Apollo's Torsten Slok said. There are also fewer real estate agents per 1,000 jobs in states like California and New York as people flock to southern states. And it's slowing things down for real estate agents. The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, a note from Apollo Management's Torsten Slok stated. Real estate agents per 1,000 jobs Apollo ManagementThe cost of living and even the climate have helped warp the market.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok, —, Apollo Management's Torsten Slok, Sløk, There's, Still Organizations: Service, Apollo, San Locations: California, New York, Florida , Texas , Arizona, Colorado, Real, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, New York City

☆ Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. The short-volatility trade became very popular after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. AdvertisementIt's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient.

Persons: —, Tom Essaye, Essaye Organizations: Service, Business

☆ The Fed is going to hold out on rate cuts longer than we think, investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed is going to hold out on rate cuts longer than we think, a John Hancock strategist said. Consumer spending and market momentum are strong, while elevated rates haven't created meaningful cracks in the economy. "We're seeing riskier areas like crypto-related stocks and AI darlings' momentum taking hold in the market." And the flurry of cash is also being fed into the stock market. AdvertisementBitcoin's price has punched past $51,000 to levels last seen in 2021, rallying regardless of hiccups in the stock market like Tuesday's pullback after a hot CPI report.

Persons: John Hancock, —, John, Emily Roland, Jerome Powell, Roland, we're Organizations: Consumer, Service, CNBC, splurging, Nvidia, Fed Locations: YOLO

☆ No soft landing: The US economy is going to fall into recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist said. The economic data, while strong on the surface, is actually hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. AdvertisementThe soft landing dream is over. Instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024. "There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi chief economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a CNBC interview.

Persons: —, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Service, Citi, CNBC, Business

☆ The Evergrande collapse is not China's 'Lehman moment,' but it does complicate an economic recovery, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Evergrande collapse is not China's 'Lehman moment,' but it does complicate an economic recovery, CFR expert said. "Unlike Lehman, Evergrande's insolvency is due to its excessive borrowing and aggressive use of leverage, not over-securitization." This has spurred on the question: is the Evergrande collapse China's "Lehman moment?" One famed hedge-fund boss said China's property crash was like the Great Financial Crisis from 2008 "on steroids." "Unlike Lehman, Evergrande's insolvency is due to its excessive borrowing and aggressive use of leverage, not over-securitization."

Persons: Lehman, —, Evergrande, Zoe Liu, Liu Organizations: Service, of Foreign Relations, Lehman Brothers Locations: Hong Kong

☆ What the latest inflation data means for interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at what a hotter-than-expected inflation report means for markets and the econom y . That silver lining doesn’t address the elephant in the room: What does the latest CPI data mean for interest rates? AdvertisementMadison Hoff/Noah Sheidlower/Business InsiderThe hot inflation report comes just a few weeks after some industry experts felt the market was in a perfect position. Stubbornly elevated inflation means Powell might be less willing to cut rates and risk further fueling inflation. It’s particularly painful for smaller companies, which tend to carry floating-rate debt more susceptible to elevated interest rates.

Persons: —, Angela Weiss, Insider’s Madison Hoff, BI’s Aruni Soni, Madison Hoff, Noah Sheidlower, we’ve, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Zelter, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, Alyssa Powell, Peter Thiel, bitcoin, Noah Berger Sam Altman’s, Jensen Huang, Altman's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bezos, Rob Dobi, doomsayers, Brace, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Dow Jones, Bank of America, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New, BlackRock, Strategic Investors Group, BI, Fund, Reuters, Apple Vision, BI Sky, Employees, Cisco Systems, Sony, McLaren Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dubai, Miami, Washington, New York, London

☆ Home prices are 65% higher in places with high-risk air quality as climate change warps the housing market
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Home prices are 65% higher in places with high-risk air quality as climate change warps the housing market, Redfin report says. The median sale price in a high-risk metro was $563,710 as of December, far above the $341,483 price in low-risk metros. Metro areas where air-quality risks are high are seeing median sale prices soar by 65%, according to a Redfin report published on Monday. That's a median price of $563,710 in high-risk areas as of December — far above the $341,483 median sale price in low-risk metros. Unsurprisingly, most of those high-risk areas are concentrated on the West Coast, an area that has recently been prone to disastrous wildfires.

Organizations: Service, Business Locations: West Coast, Metro, Los Angeles

☆ 'YOLO spenders' have created a 'super-duper' credit bubble in the US economy, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US has a "super-duper" credit bubble on its hands as "YOLO spenders" take on massive debt, David Rosenberg said. US household savings are quite low at 3.7%, while consumer spending bulged by $208 billion last quarter, financed with debt. "As far as consumer credit is concerned, the default cycle isn't merely looming. AdvertisementToday's consumers — or rather, "YOLO spenders" — have taken on a massive amount of debt, top economist David Rosenberg said. "There is no acknowledgment today that, yet again, we have a super-duper credit bubble on our hands," he wrote in a note on Thursday.

Persons: David Rosenberg, It's, —, it's Organizations: US, Service, Business Locations: YOLO

☆ There's 'no chance' China's property market rebounds to what it was, researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

There's "no chance" China's property sector rebounds, a researcher from the Eurasia Group told Bloomberg. China's real estate sector was once 25% to 30% of the country's GDP, and "there's not really any sector that can fill in that gap." AdvertisementBack in 2021, China's real estate sector went topsy-turvy — and according to one researcher, it's never going to go back to its halcyon days. "The property market contributes about 10% of China's GDP," Anna Ashton from the Eurasia Group told Bloomberg. "There's not really any sector that can fill in that gap, and there's no chance of the property market rebounding to what it was before."

Persons: —, turvy, it's, Anna Ashton, There's, there's Organizations: Eurasia Group, Bloomberg, Service, Business Locations: what's

☆ Americans are feeling the most optimistic about the mortgage market since the Fed started hiking rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A Fannie Mae survey released Wednesday found that optimism around mortgage rates has hit a two-year high. "Mortgage rate optimism increased markedly again in January, with a survey-high percentage of consumers anticipating mortgage rate declines over the next year," Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist, said. The slide arrives as the Fed mulls cutting interest rates in 2024 as inflation continues to decline. A previous report showed that Fannie Mae now expects mortgage rates to dip below 6% this year, a revision of their earlier forecast. According to Fannie Mae, 82% of consumers indicated in January that they are not concerned about losing their job in the next year, up from 75% last month.

Persons: —, Fannie Mae, Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's, Freddie Mac, it's, Duncan, Fannie Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business Locations: Fannie Mae's

☆ The 'zombie economy' is haunting the stock market and stoking uncertainty, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The "zombie economy" is haunting the stock market and stoking uncertainty, Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist told Bloomberg. AdvertisementThe stock market has been jittery lately. One strategist says they've created a "zombie economy" that's contributed to volatility as interest rates have risen. "We kind of still have the zombie economy," Tony Dwyer, the chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, told Bloomberg on Wednesday. It's that uncertainty that is bleeding into the stock market.

Persons: Canaccord, —, they've, that's, Tony Dwyer, Genuity, It's, That's, Dwyer, haven't, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bloomberg, Service Locations: New York

☆ The Fed shouldn't 'waste' rate cuts now and risk another inflation spike, 'Big Short' investor Steven Eisman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed shouldn't waste rate cuts right now and risk a resurgence of inflation, "Big Short" investor Steven Eisman said. AdvertisementThe US economy is healthy, which means the Fed shouldn't needlessly cut rates, "The Big Short" investor Steven Eisman said. AdvertisementBut Eisman thinks there's no need for the Fed to cut rates without a significant negative data point. GDP, jobs, and inflation data have all been strong in the past few months. The commercial real estate sector seems to be crumbling, but the office market crash at the center of those gyrations is not big enough to knock down the economy, Eisman said.

Persons: Steven Eisman, —, Powell, redoing Volcker, Eisman, Jerome Powell, Powell's hawkish, It's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Bank of America, Fed

☆ Why one firm thinks a March cut is even more likely after 'surprise' Fed comments
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks a March cut is even more likely after "surprise" Fed comments. Powell's cautious tone sent stocks into the red on Wednesday, after he announced a March rate cut was unlikely. "We perceive such remarks as the Fed trying to herd the 'hawks.'" "We see higher probabilities for March cut than consensus," Fundstrat's Tom Lee wrote in a note on Thursday. Bank of America said Powell's remarks were a "surprise" to investors who have been pining for an early Fed pivot.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, —, Tom Lee, Jerome Powell's, Stocks, Powell's Organizations: Service, Fed, Bank of America, Business

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