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☆ Credit crunch will help Fed's job of financial tightening, says Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCredit crunch will help Fed's job of financial tightening, says Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaJamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, and Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the banking credit crunch tightening financial conditions, the potential for a gradual decline in 10-year Treasury yields, and concerns about a 2024 recession.

Persons: Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa Organizations: Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Harris Financial's Jamie Cox and Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harris Financial's Jamie Cox and Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaJamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, and Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the banking credit crunch tightening financial conditions, the potential for a gradual decline in 10-year Treasury yields, and concerns about a 2024 recession.

Persons: Harris, Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa Organizations: Societe, Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale

☆ China’s economy is way more screwed than anyone thought
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

The bubble in China's property market finally popped. In April, China's economic data came in weak largely across the board. The problem is that while consumers may be picking up, the biggest drivers of the Chinese economy — property and exports — are going to stay dormant. Consumer consumption makes up about 37% of the Chinese economy (in the US that figure is about 70%). Beijing has tried to shift the country toward a consumption model, like the US, but exports still make up 20% of China's economy.

Persons: lockdowns, it's, Xi Jinping, Stanley Druckenmiller, We're, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wei Yao, Leland Miller, Miller, Yao, Wright, I've, —, Kearney, Linette Lopez Organizations: Trade, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Invest Conference, Bank of America's, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Societe Generale, Analysts, Beijing, China, Chinese Communist Party, China's Locations: China, globalism, Beijing, York, Asia

☆ Dollar steady, with Fed pause eyed in busy c.bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will set the tone for the week, as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last marginally higher at 103.58. The euro slipped 0.02% to $1.0744 in early Asia trade, after having risen 0.4% last week, its first weekly gain in roughly a month. "Central banks have raised rates aggressively over the past 12-15 months and given the lagged effects with which monetary policy affects demand, are central banks teeing up for a pause, following the RBNZ's example?" "We change our BOJ call to no YCC revision at this week's meeting," said Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki, referring to the central bank's controversial yield curve control policy.

Persons: Alvin Tan, Jin Kenzaki, Rae Wee, Muralikumar Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Money, U.S, Reuters, ECB, ANZ, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Dollar steady, with Fed pause eyed in busy central bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will set the tone for the week, as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last marginally higher at 103.58. "Outside of the decisions that the central banks make at this meeting, what will be of particular interest is their forward guidance," economists at ANZ wrote in a note. "Central banks have raised rates aggressively over the past 12-15 months and given the lagged effects with which monetary policy affects demand, are central banks teeing up for a pause, following the RBNZ's example?" "We change our BOJ call to no YCC revision at this week's meeting," said Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki, referring to the central bank's controversial yield curve control policy.

Persons: Alvin Tan, Jin Kenzaki Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Money, U.S, Reuters, ECB, ANZ, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Asia, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ A top Wall Street investment strategist breaks down why stocks are setting up for a 22% drop in the second half of the year — and shares 2 signs that show a recession is likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz says a recession is hurtling toward the US economy. He pointed to stocks falling in lockstep with rising unemployment claims in 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1973, and 1969. Today, investors are again doing a poor job of forecasting rising unemployment claims in the months ahead, Kantrowitz believes. Underpinning Wilson's call is an earnings recession this year that investors aren't pricing in. "We first started talking about the coming earnings recession a year ago and received very strong pushback, just like today.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz doesn't, Piper Sandler, it's, Louis, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Venu Krishna, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Albert Edwards Organizations: Energy, Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BNP, Barclays, Conference, Board, National Federal, Independent, of Labor Statistics, Generale's Locations: lockstep

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crypto firm Ripple has bought Switzerland-based crypto custody firm Metaco for $250 million, in its first major acquisition, Ripple said on Wednesday. Investor interest in crypto assets has cooled following a drop in cryptocurrency prices in 2022 and series of collapses at major crypto firms, including U.S. exchange FTX. Investors have become increasingly cautious about where and how crypto assets are stored, after crypto platforms freezing withdrawals left them facing large losses. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he expected increased demand from institutional investors for crypto custody services. More than half of the $250 million acquisition was paid for in cash, and the rest in equity, Ripple said.

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

☆ Asian stocks edge lower amid gloomy China data as US CPI looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Asian stocks eased back from more than two-week highs on Tuesday as traders squared positions heading into a key U.S. inflation report, while gloomy Chinese trade data also kept risk sentiment in check. Mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) turned lower after early gains, with the benchmark CSI 300 dropping 0.8%. "So when you have some trend data which is not as good as people expect, it raises doubts," he said. "The surprise lies on the downside" for the inflation data, particularly the risk of a drop below 5%, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG markets. Brent crude was down 30 cents at $76.71 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 26 cents to $72.90.

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

☆ Watch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decisionHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.

☆ There isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William Lee
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William LeeHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.

☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.

☆ Multi-strategy hedge funds had mixed results for a mad March. Here's how Citadel, Millennium, and Point72 did.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Michelle Abrego | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Multi-strategy hedge funds had a mixed March after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse put markets on edge. The Citadel Wellington fund ended the month up 1.38%, while Steve Cohen's Point72 was up 1.33%. Equities was up 2.16% in March, bringing year-to-date performance to 4.56%. Its global fixed income fund returned 0.12% in March, bringing year-to-date performance to 1.77%. Hedge fund performance figures are still trickling out, but data and reports suggest that trend-following and macro funds were caught out after the banking crisis rocked markets.

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - Even after a bank shock that could well have changed the whole picture, investors appear reluctant to give up the ghost just yet. The tech-heavy, interest-rate sensitive Nasdaq (.IXIC) is up 14% and even broad European bank stock indices (.SX7P) are still up more than 4% for the year. Pull the lens out as far as it can go and MSCI's all-country index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) is up more than 5%. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. by Mike Dolan; Editing by Toby Chopra; Twitter: @reutersMikeDOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.

☆ The chief investment strategist at a $540 billion firm explains why the stock market may have already bottomed for the year — and why he sees opportunity in the market's most beaten-down names
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wes Crill believes the stock market may have already bottomed, according to historical precedence. In the long term, he's bullish on value stocks once again taking the reigns as market leaders. "In fact, the average return for value stocks was a little bit higher in periods where the overall stock market was positive." Across Wall Street, Crill's not the only one with a longer-term overweight towards value stocks. Instead, he says investors should stick to what history dictates works best: value stocks over a long time horizon.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks still have 60% further downside as sky-high valuations remain more inflated than every other crash over the last 100 years exce
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

John Hussman says stocks remain more overvalued than nearly every bubble over the last century. This week, Mike Wilson and Albert Edwards also said stocks remain highly overvalued. Right now, that risk-reward ratio for stocks is abysmal, says John Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes. Hussman FundsTo illustrate how out-of-whack stocks are relative to Treasury rates, Hussman compiled the below chart. This would mean around 60% further downside from levels seen earlier this week, when Hussman published the commentary.

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com crash warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels — and suggests that tech stocks could be the market's 'Achilles' heel'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Societe Generale's Albert Edwards warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels. Historically, when yields are low, higher stock valuations are accepted as investors seek yield. But currently high yields in the Treasury market mean stock valuations, on a historical basis, should be lower. Societe GeneraleEdwards said the drop in long-term growth expectations could be assigned to a deteriorating outlook for tech stocks. Societe Generale"An expensive US CAPE ratio has long been justified by the US market's far higher weighting in tech," he said.

Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

The reported group net income for the three months ending in December came at 1.16 billion euros ($1.24 billion), beating the analyst consensus of 834 million euros provided by Visible Alpha. SocGen's quarterly net income was however 35% lower than the same period a year ago, as the bank's hiked provisions for failing loans, which increased by close to fivehold to 413 millions in an uncertain economic environment. Group revenues were up by 4% to 6.89 billion euros in the fourth quarter, also beating the Visible Alpha consensus. Like its bigger French rival BNP Paribas(BNPP.PA), SocGen is enjoying higher revenues from debt and trading in volatile markets. It plans a 440 million-euro share buyback in 2023, on top of a cash dividend of 1.70 euro per share.

☆ Bonds a very good hedge against volatility and risky assets, says Societe Generale's Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBonds a very good hedge against volatility and risky assets, says Societe Generale's RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital Partners CIO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the net impact of rising interest rates, Rajappa's thoughts on investing in the bond market and how Forrest views the investing landscape right now.

☆ Analysis: Investors face dilemma as capital increases fill IPO void
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro | Oliver Hirt | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This is a test as to whether shareholders want to support a company they know well already," he said. In contrast with a drought of initial public offerings (IPO), EMEA companies have raised an overall 33.3 billion euros ($34.99 billion) through capital increases so far this year. Meanwhile, fund managers' cash holdings stand at a near 21-year peak, according to poll data from Bank of America. "However, the market could see more firms turn to shareholders for funding given the rising cost of debt and changing outlook," he added. ($1 = 0.9517 euros)Reporting by Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro and Oliver Hirt; Editing by Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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