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He's steering clear of Big Tech stocks, and for now he's only bullish on "dull, boring, and predictable" names. Tech stocks now account for highest portion of the S&P 500 since the early 2000s, according to an analysis from Société Générale. AdvertisementAnother risk to stocks lies in interest rates, Blain said, as borrowing costs look poised to stay higher for longer. "There is an awful lot of people in the financial markets who just don't understand that zero interest rates and ultra-low interest rates are not normal," Blain added. AdvertisementThe final risk Blain is eyeing is the upcoming presidential election, which contains a handful of uncertainties that could batter stocks, Blain said.
Persons: Bill Blain, Blain isn't, , that's, Blain, Biden, he's, Générale, John Hussman, I've, eyeing, We've, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Big Tech, Service, China, Nasdaq, Tech, stoke, Richard Bernstein Advisors
The SocGen strategist has been warning of a recession and coming stock crash for months. The tech sector is showing a number of signs that valuations are an overstretched "timebomb," he said. AdvertisementThe stock market is flashing warning signs that the tech stock frenzy is about to end, according to one of Wall Street's most bearish analysts. "As time marches on, there are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash let alone the 1987 crash. Analysts are expecting tech stocks to post forward earnings growth of around 30% year-over-year, Edwards noted, though tech stocks have actually been posting around 20% yearly earnings growth.
Persons: Albert Edwards, , He's, Edwards, Russell, Morgan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Tech
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is set to keep interest rates steady this week after cutting in June for the first time since September 2019. The hold would come amid uncertainty about underlying inflation dynamics, especially stemming from the labor market, which have weighed on the central bank's resolve to embark on a rapid path of cuts. "ECB speakers, including President [Christine] Lagarde and Chief Economist [Philip] Lane, have made it quite clear that the July meeting is set to be more of a stock-taking exercise than a policy-decision meeting, also given the absence of new staff forecasts," Anatoli Annenkov of Societe Generale said in a recent research note. "With no new quarterly data available, e.g. GDP, compensation and labour productivity data, the [ECB's] Governing Council will instead have to make do with mostly survey data," he said, adding that previous data points to a bumpy recovery in the euro area — the 20 countries that share the single currency.
Persons: Christine, Lagarde, Philip, Lane, Anatoli Annenkov Organizations: FRANKFURT, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale
CNBC Daily Open: S&P retreats, yen surges, Tesla sinks
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The declines follow the lowest consumer price index in over three years. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell, while U.S. oil prices rose on hopes of a rate cut. The Fed is "one step closer to a September rate cut," said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade.
Persons: Jesse Pound, Chris Larkin, Kit Juckes, Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Dow Jones, Treasury, U.S, Societe Generale, Delta Air Lines, Paris, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: U.S
People stand outside a money changer looking at the rates of the Japanese yen against foreign currencies, along a street in central Tokyo on April 29, 2024. The dollar lost around 2% against the Japanese yen on Thursday as the market was suddenly jolted by fresh inflation U.S. data. The dollar rose as the U.S. reacted to its lowest CPI (consumer price index) reading in more than three years. But it comes at a time when traders are on high alert for more yen intervention from Japanese authorities as they try to prop up its ailing currency. Masato Kanda, the vice-minister of finance for international affairs of the Ministry of Finance, told Jiji Press that he was not in a position to comment on any possible intervention.
Persons: Kit Juckes, Marc Ostwald, Masato Kanda, wasn't Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Societe Generale, CNBC, ADM Investor Services, CPI, Ministry of Finance, Jiji Press Locations: Tokyo, London, JPY
Poster of Christophe Versini for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on it, on June 24, 2024. Recent polling suggests the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) party, led by Jordan Bardella, could win the most seats in the National Assembly, followed by the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, or New Popular Front). French bond yields — which move inversely to prices — have been relatively contained. Even then, he added, the spread of French bond yields over their German counterparts looked set to remain higher than before Macron called the election. There is little concern over France enacting its own "Frexit," he said, with even National Rally having moved away from actively proposing leaving the euro area or the European Union.
Persons: Christophe Versini, Jordan Bardella, Magali Cohen, Emmanuel Macron, Sunday's, Giorgia Meloni, Viraj Patel, Patel, Liz, Truss, Andrew Kenningham, Macron, Kenningham, François Mitterrand, Christian Keller, CNBC's, Keller Organizations: Rassemblement National, Afp, Getty, National Assembly, Societe Generale, BNP, Vanda Research, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Barclays, European Union Locations: Germany, Italy, Europe, France, Britain
Steady dollar sends yen to the brink of 160
  + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of U.S. price data at the end of the week. The dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of U.S. price data at the end of the week. The Australian dollar dipped 0.1% to $0.6640 and the New Zealand dollar similarly slipped to $0.6115, with small moves reflecting thin trade. Sterling was steady at $1.268, while bitcoin has recovered somewhat from a dip below $60,000 this week to trade at $61,668. "The yen moves more, and yuan moves are more controlled, but they seldom move in opposite directions," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes.
Persons: Pat Bustamante, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, bitcoin, Kit Juckes Organizations: Canadian, Westpac, Federal, Fed, New Zealand, Citi, Sterling, Generale Locations: Asia, U.S, China
The big storyEmerging markets have been on tenterhooks for the better part of this year as the Federal Reserve has been dangling the prospect of an interest rate cut. Historically, as U.S. interest rates fall, the allure of the mighty dollar fades to the benefit of other currencies. Indeed, unlike most developed economies, India's interest rate regime in 2024 isn't any different from that of 2018. There lies the disconnect between the economy, the stock market, and a single stock. Non-bank lender Akme Fintrade India and engineering firm DEE Development Engineers will debut on the stock market on Wednesday.
Persons: Sumant Sinha, we've, Sinha, It's, Fitch, Rahul Jain, Goldman Sachs, Jake Sullivan, Modi, Narendra Modi, CNBC's Charmaine Jacob, Raamdeo Agrawal, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Jain Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, India Inc, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of, U.S, Societe Generale, Goldman, Clean Energy, CNBC, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, of India, Bangladesh, Australia, DEE Development Engineers Locations: Tuticorin, India, Reserve Bank of India, Japan, Britain, Delhi
London CNN —London’s stock market has edged ahead of its rival in Paris as fears grow over the outcome of France’s looming parliamentary elections. The first round of the French elections is scheduled for June 30, followed by a second round on July 7. Hubert de Barochez, a senior market economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said investors might be concerned that a parliament run by the National Rally would penalize banks. In contrast with the political and financial turmoil in France, UK financial markets are “relatively stable,” said Rudolph at IG Group. Credit ratings agencies are already keeping a close eye on France, one of the EU’s three most-indebted countries.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Axel Rudolph, you’ve, , OpinionWay, Macron, Hubert de Barochez, Rudolph, Richard Hunter, Mohit Kumar Organizations: London CNN, Bloomberg, CAC, FTSE, European Union, , CNN, National, BNP, Credit, Capital Economics, IG Group, Labour Party, Interactive Investor, National Rally, Jefferies Locations: Paris, France, United Kingdom, Europe’s, Britain
Prices in 70 major cities were down 0.7% in May from April, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures showed on Monday. According to separate calculations by the Macquarie Group, prices of existing homes in those cities fell by 7.5% year-on-year last month, marking the biggest decline on record. A month ago, Beijing unveiled wide-ranging measures to rescue the crisis-hit property market, including asking local governments across the country to buy unsold homes from beleaguered developers and easing rules on purchases. Measures, including efforts to provide cheap loans to state-owned enterprises for buying unsold homes from distressed developers, will “take time” to have an impact on the property market, the analysts said. Property investment for the first five months of the year dropped 10.1% from a year ago, according the NBS on Monday.
Persons: , Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Macquarie Group, Societe Generale, NBS, Labor, Macquarie, HSBC, Communist Party Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
Matthieu Delaty | Afp | Getty ImagesFrance's election campaign kicked off in earnest Monday following a weekend of violent nationwide protests against the far-right National Rally, or RN, whose record European Parliament gains sparked the snap vote. Protesters gather during an anti far-right rally after French president called legislative elections following far-right parties' significant gains in European Parliament elections, in Paris on June 15, 2024. More likely, however, is a "messy" hung parliament, he said — part of Macron's gamble to discredit RN's legitimacy ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. French stocks gained on Monday, with Goldman Sachs' senior European strategist Sharon Bell saying that the sell-off may have been premature. Protesters gather during an anti-far-right rally after French President Emmanuel Macron called legislative elections following far-right parties' significant gains in European Parliament elections in Paris on June 15, 2024.
Persons: Matthieu Delaty, Jordan Bardella, France's Le, Lou Benoist, Emmanuel Macron's, Mujtaba Rahman, Mujtaba, Goldman Sachs, Sharon Bell, Bell, CNBC's, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: National Rally, Afp, Getty, France's Le Monde, CGT, CNBC, Union, Eurasia, CAC, Generale, Protesters Locations: Lyon, France, Paris, Europe
A growing realization that President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold snap elections in France may backfire sent the French stock market tumbling on Friday to its lowest level in two years, and prompted warnings from the French finance minister that the economy risks stumbling into a financial crisis. Amid growing signs that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party may be ushered to the brink of power, France’s benchmark stock index, the CAC 40, slumped 2.7 percent. The losses capped a weeklong losing streak that sent shares down more than 6 percent, wiping out all the bourse’s gains since the start of the year. Among the hardest hit stocks were France’s biggest banks, including BNP Paribas and Société Générale, which hold hefty amounts of French sovereign debt. Equally worrisome, the risk premium that investors demand to hold French government bonds over Germany’s, a eurozone benchmark, rose to the highest since 2017, the biggest weekly jump since 2012, when the euro debt crisis was underway.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron’s, Société Organizations: CAC, BNP Locations: France
French election shock hits stocks and the euro
  + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
London CNN —The decision by French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election after losing to the far right in a vote for European lawmakers roiled markets and the euro Monday. The first round of the French election is scheduled for June 30, followed by the second round on July 7. Under the French system, parliamentary elections are held to elect the 577 members of the lower house, the National Assembly. Higher yields indicate that investors want a bigger premium to buy French bonds given the political uncertainty. “A right-wing majority in the (French parliament) would hamper any reform plans.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Générale, , , Mike O’Sullivan, whittle, Andrew Kenningham, ” Mohit Kumar Organizations: London CNN, BNP, Credit Agricole, National, National Assembly, CNN, Capital Economics, Jefferies Locations: Paris, Europe, , France
Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFrench President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap national election after a surge for his far-right rivals is a high-stakes move and a huge political gamble, analysts say. Macron's decision to call a snap parliamentary vote comes after the right-wing National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, won around 31% of the vote in Sunday's European Parliament election. That was more than double the 14.6% seen for Macron's pro-European and centrist Renaissance Party and its allies. France's CAC 40 slumped 1.8% in the early hours of trading Monday morning with French banks trading sharply lower. "This is an essential time for clarification," Macron said in a national address Sunday evening as he announced his decision to dissolve parliament.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Macron's, Macron, Le Pen, Macron —, , Daniel Hamilton, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, Antonio Barroso, Teneo, Barroso, Le, Douglas Yates, Yates Organizations: Getty, Getty Images, Marine, Sunday's, Renaissance Party, CAC, BNP, Societe Generale, Foreign, Institute, Johns Hopkins University, CNBC, Research, National Assembly, American Graduate School Locations: Chesnot, France, Paris
Read previewThe US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale. New manufacturing orders contracted in May, and overall manufacturing activity contracted for the 18th time over the last 18 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Advertisement"Although many may dismiss the importance of the manufacturing sector for the overall economy, it is undeniable that overall GDP ebbs and flows closely with it. SocGen isn't alone in sounding the alarm, and other economists say that high interest rates are finally working their way through the economy and depressing growth. New York Fed economists see a 52% chance the economy could slip into recession within the next 12 months.
Persons: , it's, Société, Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, That's, SocGen isn't Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Institute for Supply Management, New York Fed
CNN —France’s iconic Eiffel Tower is increasing its ticket prices by 20%, CNN’s affiliate BFMTV has reported, to help cover the costs of renovation work and financial losses during the coronavirus pandemic. An adult ticket including an elevator ride to the summit of the Parisian landmark will cost €35.30 ($38.31) from June 17 onwards, rising from €29.40 ($31.91), BFMTV reported. In both years, operating costs were around triple that of the the landmark’s overall turnover, SETE said. Renovation work is also behind the cost increase, including “lead prevention measures” related to the painting of the tower, BFMTV reported. The painting work is expected to last until 2027 while work is also planned on the elevators, which will lead to occasional closures.
Persons: BFMTV, Organizations: CNN, Eiffel Locations: SETE
“The policymakers recognize the urgency to prevent an outright property crisis,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Research. According to Goldman Sachs, the total value of unsold homes, unfinished projects and unused land in China is about 30 trillion yuan ($4.1 trillion). On Friday, Tao Ling, deputy governor of the PBOC, said the relending program could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of bank loans to support the buying. The Housing Ministry said Friday that local governments can instruct local state-owned enterprises to help purchase some unsold homes from developers. Just the beginningAddressing the oversupply of unsold homes is only the first step, experts say.
Persons: , Zhaopeng Xing, Goldman Sachs, it’s, Tao Ling, Ting Lu, Nomura, Helen Qiao, It’s, Tao, ” Jing Liu, Taylor Wang, Xing, Goldman, Donald Trump, Michelle Lam, Wei Yao, Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, ANZ Research, Goldman, People’s Bank of China, Greater China, Bank of America, Housing Ministry, HSBC, European Union Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hong Kong CNN — Beijing, Beijing, Greater, Société, Japan
Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech
Societe Generale economist discusses Chinese property market
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSociete Generale economist discusses Chinese property marketMichelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale, discusses the potential headwinds for Chinese markets.
Persons: Michelle Lam Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: China
Hong Kong CNN —China has unveiled wide-ranging measures to rescue its property sector, including asking local governments across the country to buy unsold homes from beleagured developers and easing rules on purchases. In a coordinated move, the People’s China of China (PBOC) announced that it will set up a nationwide program to provide 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in loans to fund state purchases of unsold homes. The 300 billion yuan provided by the central bank could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of credit to support such purchases, she estimated. Expectations that Beijing was preparing a plan to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes have successfully buoyed China stocks. On Friday, He also urged local governments to buy back or directly purchase land that has been sold to developers but not yet used.
Persons: Lifeng, Tao Ling, Larry Hu, , Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist, China Real Estate Business, Macquarie Group, Reuters, provident Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
GameStop shares soared once again ahead of Tuesday's opening bell. Other meme stocks like AMC and BlackBerry have also racked up big gains this week. Market gurus like Jim Chanos and Larry McDonald aren't convinced by the Reddit-fueled rally, though. AdvertisementGameStop and other big-name "meme stocks" kept rising ahead of Tuesday's opening bell — but some of the best-known voices in the market are highly skeptical about the rally. AMC, BlackBerry, and several other meme stocks — notable for their popularity on retail investing forums such as Reddit's r/WallStreetBets — also racked up major gains in early-morning trading.
Persons: Jim Chanos, Larry McDonald aren't, , Keith Gill's, Gill, Kitty, Keith Gill, Roaring, Lol, Ferris, Larry McDonald, Jerome, Powell's Organizations: GameStop, AMC, BlackBerry, Service, Pirates
Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
Credit Agricole , France's second-biggest listed bank, posted a forecast-beating 55% jump in first-quarter net profit on Friday, helped by corporate and investment banking sales that outperformed rivals. Net profit in the January to March period rose to 1.9 billion euros ($2.04 billion), above the 1.48 billion-euro average of 19 analyst estimates compiled by the company. Sales climbed 11% to 6.81 billion euros, topping analyst expectations of 6.47 billion euros. The cost of risk, or money put aside for bad loans, was 400 million euros, 105 million euros less than expected. Targets include annual underlying net income of more than 6 billion euros and a return on tangible equity of more than 12%.
Persons: Amundi Organizations: Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Agricole Locations: France's, France
European stock markets are set to open in the green on Friday, rounding off a broadly negative week dominated by corporate earnings. The Stoxx 600 index has finished lower for the past three sessions as investors digested a slew of results from the biggest companies in Europe and the U.S.On Friday, those included French banks Société Générale , which reported a smaller-than-forecast decline in first-quarter profit, and Crédit Agricole , which saw a leap in net profit. Data is due on U.K. retail sales, Turkey's inflation rate, French industrial production and Spanish employment.
Organizations: U.S, Crédit Agricole Locations: Europe
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