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Surging Shanghai metal stocks have injected an element of doubt into the bull narrative and the LME Index is now showing year-to-date gains of only 3% after a February pull-back. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks of aluminium, copper and zincSEASONAL SURGEMetals bulls have been nervously watching the fast build in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stocks over the past few weeks. Copper stocks have grown equally dramatically, from 69,268 tonnes to 242,009 tonnes over the same period. It is currently assessed by Shanghai Metal Market at a bombed-out $22.50 a tonne, down from an October high of $152.50. WAIT AND WATCHIt's difficult to say until China's seasonal stocks pattern plays out in full.

Maike's absence has encouraged some direct trade between sellers and buyers in the market but they face challenges. Fitch Solutions expects China's copper consumption to rise 4.4% this year, after just 1.5% growth in 2022. Anti-pandemic restrictions had also prolonged smelter maintenance and curtailed copper production growth last year, especially in the Guangdong area. Some smelters there have hiked their offers for 2023 copper premiums to 300 yuan a tonne, up from 200 yuan a tonne last year, a Shanghai-based trader said. While Maike's disappearance from the import market has been blamed for disrupting supplies and pricing, China's refined copper imports increased 6.6% in 2022, according to customs data.

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China raised export tariffs on unwrought primary aluminium and alloy at the start of this year after a rare burst of export activity in the first part of 2022. Russian aluminium dominated the import mix and Russian smelters were the main recipients of Chinese alumina exports last year. China's unwrought aluminium imports vs Russian metalRUSSIAN IMPORTS GROWDecember's imports of primary aluminium, by contrast, accelerated to 128,000 tonnes, the highest monthly tally in over a year. China's total alumina exports vs RussianCHINA LIFTS ALUMINA EXPORTSThe two countries' aluminium trade also extends to the intermediate alumina stage of the processing chain. It could also mean China returning to consistent net importer of unwrought aluminium, particularly if domestic smelter production continues to be plagued by power constraints.

China's net refined copper imports and year-on-year changeBOOMING IMPORTSThe strength of last year's imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group. But it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China. But China's imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022. China's net imports of refined copper were running below year-earlier levels through May but steadily accelerated over the second part of the year. Goldman suggests that a sign of restocking by China's copper sector would be net refined imports being consistently higher than 280,000 tonnes per month.

China's own production of refined tin was flat year-on-year at 165,900 tonnes in 2022, according to Shanghai Metal Market. ShFE tin price, market open interest and stocksSHIFT IN POSITIONINGWhile China has reshaped tin's fundamental picture, the price recovery has forced an equally significant shift in fund positioning. Investment funds turned net short on the LME tin contract in September as the price was imploding. Tin market open interest collapsed from 102,106 to 71,218 contracts in the week before the Lunar New Year holidays, indicating a big clean-out of short positions. GOLDILOCKS PRICEThe tin price is now in the Goldilocks zone, not high enough to frighten off physical users, and not low enough to threaten existing supply.

LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Global aluminium production rose by a marginal 2.0% last year, a rate of growth that was down from 2.7% in 2021 and the slowest since 2019, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Global aluminium production by region change versus 2021EUROPE POWERS DOWNWestern European aluminium output was running at an annualised 2.73 million tonnes in December, down by 540,000 tonnes on December 2021 and the lowest production rate this century. Latin America was the fastest-growing aluminium production region last year with output up 10.7% year on year. As ever more smelters switch to green energy sources, global aluminium production is ever more dependent on seasonally variable power availability. Such regional adjustments are now part and parcel of the global aluminium production landscape but they have injected a new degree of volatility into aluminium's previously slow-changing supply side.

London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stocks of the galvanising metal total 36,525 tonnes, the lowest amount this century. LME zinc price, spread and stocks; Shanghai Futures Exchange stocksSMELTER DISRUPTIONGlobal refined zinc output fell by 3.2% in January-October, according to the ILZSG, matching the drop-off in usage. Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) estimates total "social" inventories of zinc ingot across seven domestic markets at a low 56,000 tonnes. The longer-term question-mark over Europe's power-hungry smelters hasn't gone away, injecting a whole new twist in the zinc market narrative. In the short term the zinc market is going to remain beholden to the European power market.

ShFE stocks, bonded warehouse stocks and Yangshan premiumSHANGHAI SQUEEZEThe ShFE copper contract has been characterised by low inventory and rolling tightness for some time. It is probable that troubled trade house Maike Group is also somehow in the Shanghai copper cocktail right now. LONDON'S RUSSIAN DILEMMAChina's strong call on copper is being felt in London, where falling LME stocks have rekindled time-spread volatility. The micro-macro divergence looks set to accentuate as LME stocks are stripped for shipment to China. Over 60% of LME copper stocks at the end of September were Russian metal.

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - European copper buyers are going to be paying a lot more to get their metal next year. Aurubis (NAFG.DE) cited a combination of high freight and power costs and low visible copper stocks. European annual copper premiumsSANCTIONS CREEPThere were no official sanctions on Russian copper until earlier this month, when the British government announced an asset freeze on Iskander Makhmudov. ASIAN DISCOUNTWhat will happen to all the Russian copper if Europe stages a collective boycott? The sharp hike in next year's European premiums says much about the cost of refusing Russian metal.

REUTERS/Kham/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - While the rest of the world worries about recession, China is steadily increasing its imports of physical copper. The country's net call on refined copper from the rest of the world was up by 9.8% in the first eight months of the year. China's imports of copper scrapSCRAP AND CONCENTRATES IMPORTS UPThe restocking momentum is also travelling down copper raw materials import channels. GREEN DEMAND DRIVERChina's copper import hunger appears unsated. The sign-posting of more government investment in decarbonisation is a major reason for China's copper buyers to feel confident about restocking physical units at current price levels.

REUTERS/Alexandre MeneghiniLONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The puzzle facing the zinc market is whether demand or supply will fall hardest this year. LME zinc fund net positioningLOW STOCKSThe outright price is falling despite low exchange inventory. Fastmarkets assessments of Antwerp and Italy premiumsSUPPLY HITEurope is at the epicentre of the global zinc supply hit as smelters struggle to cope with soaring power prices. SHIFTING BALANCEZinc's micro dynamics are shifting fast and at the moment it seems that the demand hit is outpacing the supply hit. It's the demand outlook that's weighing on the outright zinc price.

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