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Annual pay growth including bonuses also accelerated, hitting 8.2%, the fastest outside the coronavirus pandemic period when government job subsidies distorted the data. Two-year British government bond yields, which are sensitive to speculation about BoE rate changes, hit their highest level in a month. Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said wage increases were set to slow in the second half of 2023. "The momentum in wage growth still is too strong for the Committee to take a break just yet," Tombs said. However, inactivity due to long-term sickness rose to a new record high, adding to the problems for employers seeking to fill job vacancies and adding to the pressure on pay growth.

Persons: BoE, Sterling, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, it's, Sharon Graham, Sachin Ravikumar, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Reuters, Sterling, Bank of England, Pantheon, Public, Unite, Union, Thomson Locations: Britain

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to approvals of 49,000, after 51,143 mortgages were approved in May. The value of net mortgage lending for the second quarter as a whole fell compared with the first quarter - the first quarterly contraction since records began in 1987. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates to 5.25% on Thursday from 5.0%, which would be the highest Bank Rate since 2008. "Looking ahead, growth in households' real disposable incomes will be weighed down by mortgage refinancing," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics. The BoE reported a 1.661 billion pound ($2.13 billion) monthly increase in net consumer lending June, the largest such increase since April 2018.

Persons: Banks, Liz Truss, BoE, Thomas Pugh, Samuel Tombs, Andy Bruce, David Milliken, Sarah Young, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of, RSM, Thomson

☆ UK borrows less than thought but Hunt pledges budget discipline
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although borrowing remains high after the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic and last year's energy price surge, the budget deficit in June stood at 18.5 billion pounds ($23.8 billion), down by 0.4 billion pounds from June 2022. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to higher borrowing of 22 billion pounds last month. "Now more than ever we need to maintain discipline with the public finances," Hunt said after Friday's borrowing figures. As this week's fall in inflation showed, we will start to see results if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, grow the economy and get debt falling." However, a measure of consumer confidence fell in July for the first time since January as households felt the hit from higher inflation, borrowing costs and taxes.

Persons: Hunt, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Martin Beck, Beck, David Milliken, Angus MacSwan Organizations: LONDON, Conservative Party, National Statistics, Conservatives, Pantheon, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Wall Street on ice ahead of big tech earnings, UK shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tech stocks have been boosted by exuberance about artificial intelligence as well as hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end the aggressive interest rate rises that bludgeoned valuations of more speculative businesses in 2022. Owning big tech is also the "most crowded" trade in global markets, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a note to clients this week. This was just the latest downside surprise on prices for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. Sterling lost 0.96% to trade at $1.291 as market bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates as high as 6%, from the current 5%, faded out. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) added 1.6% and the domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 3.2%, on track for its best daily performance since February 2.

Persons: Sterling, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Stuart Kaiser, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Tom Westbrook, Bernadette Baum, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: Stock, Wall, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, Tech, Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Sterling, . Federal, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: London, Sydney

Headline British consumer price inflation fell to 7.9% year-on-year in June, against expectations for 8.2%, in the latest downside surprise for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. The BoE now had "the green light" for a 25 basis point (bps) rate rise next month, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said, after markets had previously priced a further 50 bps hike. "Profit taking in sterling should not be a surprise," added Kenneth Broux, head of FX and rates corporate research at Societe Generale in London. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for debt costs in the Euro-zone, fell 5 bps to 2.35% . Futures trading indicated Wall Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 share indices would open steady later in the day.

Persons: Sterling, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Klaas, Chris Weston, Sam Holmes, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Headline, Sterling, . Federal, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, Pepperstone, Nasdaq, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, London ., disinflation, Europe, Melbourne

☆ UK wage growth matches record high, keeping BoE under pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The labour market became less tight in May and there are some signs of momentum in wage growth slowing a bit," Ashley Webb, an economist with Capital Economics, said. "But with wage growth still well above the levels consistent with the 2% inflation target, this won't ease the Bank of England's inflation fears significantly." The BoE is monitoring pay growth closely as it assesses how much inflationary pressure remains in Britain's economy even after its 13 back-to-back interest rate increases. "But it always has taken a little time for changes in labour market slack to influence wage growth and some leading indicators remain encouraging." Annual pay growth including bonuses sped up to 6.9%, the fastest on record excluding the coronavirus pandemic period when government job subsidies distorted the data, the ONS said.

Persons: Sterling, Ashley Webb, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Samuel Tombs, William Schomberg, Sachin Ravikumar, Kate Holton, Christina Fincher Organizations: Reuters, of England, Sterling, Bank of England, National Statistics, Capital Economics, of, Pantheon, MPC, Thomson

☆ UK shoppers boost spending again despite inflation's squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But Friday's retail sales figures showed that, at least for now, British consumers were weathering the cost-of-living storm. "But our view is still that the growing drag on activity from higher interest rates will eventually tip the economy into recession, generating a 0.5% peak to trough fall in real consumer spending." The statistics agency said the one-off holiday to celebrate the king's coronation was not factored into its seasonal adjustments, meaning it helped to boost the sales volumes reading. Retail sales volumes in May were 2.1% lower than a year earlier. The Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a fall of 2.6% in sales volumes on an annual basis.

Persons: Sterling, King Charles, Ruth Gregory, Samuel Tombs, Heather Bovill, William Schomberg, William James, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Office, National Statistics, Capital Economics, ONS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Britain

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that the annual consumer price inflation rate would drop to 8.4% in May, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1%. "May's CPI figures ratchet up the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee to increase Bank Rate substantially further over the coming months," Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. Food and drink price inflation dropped slightly to 18.3% from April's 19.0%. The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates on Thursday to 4.75% from 4.5%. After Wednesday's data, markets fully priced in interest rates reaching 6% by December - up from around a 50% chance of such a move on Tuesday.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Samuel Tombs, Sterling, BoE, Grant Fitzner, . Paul Dales, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Bank of, Reuters, Monetary, Committee, Pantheon, U.S ., National Statistics, ., Capital Economics, Bank, Fed, ECB, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Bank of England

☆ Retail and films drive modest growth in UK economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Britain's economy grew by 0.2% month-on-month in April, the Office for National Statistics said, matching the consensus in a Reuters poll of economists. Over the three months to April, Britain's economy expanded just 0.1% - a "low growth trajectory" according to the British Chambers of Commerce. The ONS said the economy in April stood 0.3% above its pre-pandemic level of February 2020. Services output rose 0.3% on the month, with the wholesale and retail trade the biggest driver of growth. But manufacturing output dropped 0.3% and the construction sector contracted unexpectedly by 0.6%, the figures showed.

Persons: Samuel Tombs, Jeremy Hunt, Sumanta Sen, William James, Sarah Young, Kate Holton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: National Statistics, Financial, Bank of England, British Chambers of Commerce, Reuters, ONS, Thomson Locations: British

☆ UK homeowners brace for more mortgage pain as borrowing costs shoot up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Existing and aspiring UK homeowners are bracing for a fresh wave of misery as a rise in benchmark borrowing costs threatens to push up monthly mortgage payments. The yield on the country’s two-year government bonds — which is used to set interest rates on mortgages — jumped to 4.87% on Tuesday. The figures have pointed to persistent inflationary pressures, increasing the chances of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and driving up gilt yields. “We’ve had to reflect that in our mortgage rates,” the spokesperson said. “[UK inflation] is a chronic problem, and it’s not something that you can deal with quickly.”

Persons: Liz Truss, Craig, Samuel Tombs, “ We’ve, Paul Dales, “, Truss, Henry Nicholls, ”, Ed Al Organizations: London CNN, Bank of England, Royal London Asset Management, CNN, Pantheon, UK Finance, HSBC, HSBC UK, Capital Economics, Reuters, Columbia Threadneedle Investments Locations: United Kingdom, Europe, United States

☆ UK economy limps along as high inflation hits spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“Sky-high inflation, negative real wage growth and general cost of living pressures are weighing on the consumer, and in turn the services industry which is typically a key growth engine for the UK economy,” she added in a note. The Bank of England raised interest rates for the 12th consecutive time Thursday in its battle with double-digit inflation. The central bank expects the UK economy to grow by 0.25% this year and by 0.75% in 2024 — a much more positive assessment than in February, when it forecast contractions of 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively. Inflation still highConsumer price inflation in the UK remains stubbornly high, holding above 10% in the year to March. “With inflation still in double digits, it feels depressingly like a re-run of the 1970s.”The Bank of England expects inflation to fall sharply over the coming months.

Food prices soared 18.2% through the year to February, the sharpest rise since the late 1970s. The latest figures could make it more likely that the Bank of England hikes interest rates again when it meets Thursday. "It's still a very close call, but these figures give us a bit more confidence in our forecast that the Bank will raise interest rates from 4% to 4.25% tomorrow." The data complicates the central bank's decision over whether it should raise rates for the 11th consecutive time Thursday — and makes it harder for the government to deliver on its January pledge to halve inflation this year. Wages rose 6.5% in January compared with a year prior, far below the inflation rate both that month and in February.

[1/5] A Venezuelan flag next to some flags of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA is pictured near the company's headquarters, in Caracas, Venezuela March 20, 2023. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez ViloriaCARACAS, March 20 (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Monday accepted the resignation of the country's powerful oil minister following the detention of at least six high level officials amid a corruption probe focused on state-run company PDVSA and the judiciary. Arresting government officials for corruption is rare in Venezuela, a country that rights groups such as Transparency International have described as opaque. The sources also said that at least 20 lower level officials at PDVSA have been arrested in recent days. The arrests are the largest recent crackdown on alleged PDVSA corruption.

☆ Caroline Ellison made $6 million at Alameda – a fraction of Sam Bankman-Fried's $2.2 billion's haul
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Pete Syme | Sam Tabahriti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Caroline Ellison received $6 million by Alameda, according to court documents filed Wednesday. Sam Bankman-Fried transferred himself $2.2 billion, while $587 million went to Nishad Singh. Alameda Research has been accused of using customer deposits from Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange FTX for daily operations, including risky investments. FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on November 11 after it imploded, wiping out billions in customer deposits. Court documents filed Wednesday show he transferred $2.5 million from Alameda to American Yacht Group in March 2022, with the cited reason "for the benefit of John Samuel Trabucco."

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt presented less gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsROSIER OUTLOOKA rout in global banking stocks on Wednesday overshadowed many UK-specific moves. Investments announced by Hunt such as a corporate spending tax break, a boost for defence and extra childcare support were not viewed as particularly inflationary. Unlike in the last budget, noise around windfall taxes on oil and gas companies was muted in the run-up to the budget since energy prices have fallen dramatically since then. "In general, the budget is not the big story for gilts right now, global drivers are in the driving seat," said James Smith, economist at ING.

"Some further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided," Bailey added. Bailey said that the economy had developed largely as expected since the BoE raised rates on Feb. 2. "Inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger, though I would emphasise 'slightly' in both cases," he said. Bailey also highlighted how the central bank shifted its language in February, when it said further tightening would be required if there was evidence of more persistent inflation pressures. But two MPC members - Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro - voted in February to pause the rate hikes.

☆ A millennial went from living paycheck to paycheck to earning $100,000 last year helping people move through TaskRabbit
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Two years later, the 33-year-old earned $100,000 helping people move through TaskRabbit. And he did so working just 10 to 30 hours per week. Samuel does some furniture assembly and delivery tasks, but his typical job involves helping clients move. "I will work around 30 hours a week. "My favorite part of working through Taskrabbit is the travel and helping my clients," he said.

With a shaky economy, some brands have reduced or cut sponsored content deals with creators. "That was definitely a bummer," Williams told Insider. "I think people are wanting to try things before they go all in with larger investments," Samuel told Insider. Taking on speaking engagementsThree creators told Insider that speaking engagements, in-person and virtual, have been a growing income stream for them. "You need to understand where you're spending money," Reed Duchscher, CEO of management company Night, previously told Insider.

☆ UK public borrowing hits record 22 billion pounds in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - British public borrowing rose to its highest for any November since records began, at 22.017 billion pounds ($26.77 billion), reflecting higher costs for energy subsidies, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast public sector net borrowing, excluding state banks, of 13.0 billion pounds for the month. Public borrowing for the first eight months of the financial year, from April to November, totalled 105.4 billion pounds, up by 7.6 billion pounds from the same period in 2021. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Economics, said that full-year public borrowing looked on course to hit the OBR's forecast for 2022/23, but risked overshooting in future years. The ONS said new energy subsidies accounted for roughly 7 billion pounds of the extra borrowing in November, while debt-interest costs rose by 2.4 billion pounds to 7.3 billion pounds from a year earlier.

☆ UK government borrows less than expected in October, but worse to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said headline public sector net borrowing totalled 13.549 billion pounds ($16 billion) last month. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a higher reading of 22 billion pounds, largely because the figures were expected to show large first payments under the government's energy bill support to households and energy suppliers. Tuesday's data showed a relatively modest 3.4 billion pounds of "other" subsidies - an initial indicative estimate of the energy bill support measures. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the full cost of these measures would show up in the coming months. ($1 = 0.8447 pounds)Reporting by Andy Bruce, Editing by Kylie MacLellan, Paul Sandle and Raissa KasolowskyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Biden's Education Department says it's 'examining' extending the student-loan payment pause to remedy the 'significant confusion' among borrowers after federal courts blocked debt relief
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Education Department said it is "examining" extending the student-loan payment pause. This comes after two federal courts blocked the department from implementing debt relief. "Most borrowers have been told that all they need to do is submit an application to obtain one-time student loan debt relief. Now, as a result of litigation they are left to wonder when, if at all, if debt relief will be effectuated. Advocates and some Democratic lawmakers have been amplifying their calls to extend the payment pause in recent days.

☆ The White House is reportedly considering extending the student-loan payment pause again as Biden's debt relief sits in federal courts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The White House is considering extending the student-loan payment pause again, per The Washington Post. This comes as Biden's debt relief is on pause after federal courts blocked its implementation. Given that these legal proceedings could take months, extending into the new year, calls to extend the student-loan payment pause beyond December 31 have been amplifying. The Washington Post reported on Monday that White House officials are considering another extension, according to two people familiar with the matter who stressed that no final decisions have been made. Advocates have also been calling on Biden to extend the student-loan payment pause.

☆ Hong Kong's economy shrinks for third straight quarter, outlook dims
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's economy contracted 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, advance government data showed on Friday, weighed down by rising global interest rates and a slump in trade. It was the third consecutive quarter of year-on-year contraction for the Asian financial hub's gross domestic product (GDP), and marked the worst contraction since the second quarter of 2020. "Looking forward, the markedly deteriorating external environment will continue to pose immense pressure on Hong Kong's export performance," a government spokesman said in a statement, adding that geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over COVID-19 will add downside risks. Cases of negative equity in Hong Kong's residential mortgage loans registered a near nine-fold increase in the third quarter from the previous one, with a fall in house prices accelerating during the period. "(Hong Kong) economic outlook remains cloudy on all fronts if the border remains partially opened in the fourth quarter," said Samuel Tse, an economist at DBS Bank.

☆ Bank of England to hike by 75 bps on Nov. 3 but may go bigger
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Annual price rises were expected to peak at 10.4% this quarter, the poll showed, before gradually declining, but won't fall to target until at least 2025. The median forecast in the Oct. 18-25 poll showed the BoE would take Bank Rate up by 75 bps to 3.00% next week. But while that was a view held by 18 of 30 respondents, 10 expected 100 bps, one said 125 bps and one said 150. It was then expected to add another 75 bps in December and 50 bps next quarter before pausing, meaning rates would peak at 4.25% in the current cycle. Both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 75-bps increases at their next meetings.

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