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China is considering a fresh $1.4 trillion stimulus, Reuters reported. The package could be approved next week and would increase in size if Trump wins the election. The large fiscal stimulus would be increased if Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump wins the US election, the report says. The remaining 4 trillion yuan would be raised by local government bonds and put toward idle land and property purchases, the sources told Reuters. AdvertisementIf Trump is elected, the stimulus package could be higher due to the economic challenges Trump's policies would pose for China, the sources told Reuters.
Persons: Trump's, , Donald Trump, Trump, he's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Reuters, Trump, Service, Republican, National People's Congress, China, Wall Locations: China, Beijing
This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.
Persons: Harris, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China
There is also a larger share of single women with children. As marriage rates fell, the number of women heading families rose. Across the board, women in the workforce faced steeper job losses and slower job recovery than men, according to research by the U.S. Census Bureau. Yet, even now, the labor force participation rate for women has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels. "This is another area where we see returning to a pre-pandemic status quo as not good enough," said Julie Vogtman, the National Women's Law Center's director of job quality.
Persons: Marc Morial, Julie Vogtman Organizations: U.S, Center for American, Finance, U.S . Census, National Urban League, CNBC, National Women's Law
China's industrial profits in September dropped at its fastest pace since the pandemic, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, as the country tussles with an economy plagued by slow growth, lack of demand and a property crisis. After a 17.8% fall in August, industrial profits declined 27.1% in September from a year ago, marking the steepest plunge since March 2020, when it dropped by 34.9%, according to data kept by Wind Information. In the first nine months, industrial profits fell by 3.5% from a year ago. NBS statistician Yu Weining said "insufficient demand and a sharp decline in producer prices" weighed down the profitability of industrial firms. Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said in an email to CNBC that "the weakness of industrial profits indicates China's greater need for demand-side policies."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Yu Weining, Gary Ng Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Information, People's, CNBC, Reuters, PMI Locations: Jiangxi Province, Shanghai, China, Beijing
Federal authorities, meanwhile, say their security procedures are sound heading into Election Day, Nov. 5. Its domestic flight bookings are down 19% for the week of the election compared with the same week last year. That has left more room for political jitters to creep into consumers’ travel considerations, travel agents say. That’s partly why Olivia MacLeod Dwinell, 64, and her husband Ross Dwinell, 74, were in Europe this month. Olivia MacLeod Dwinell and her husband, Ross Dwinnell.
Persons: Emily Reeve, , , Reeve, Ed Bastian Delta, Ed Bastian, Delta, they’d, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, they’re, Kelly Soderlund, Thibaud Moritz, ” Soderlund, Transportation Security Administration “, Jeffrey Price, Olivia MacLeod Dwinell, Sonia Bhagwan, Ross Dwinell, Dwinell, Ross’s, “ We’re, ” Kimberly Kracun, Kimberly, Ross Dwinnell, Olivia MacLeod Dwinell “, ” Kracun, Chirag, Panchal Organizations: Federal, Delta Air, Ed Bastian Delta Air, CNBC, United Airlines, AFP, Getty, Republican, Trump, Transportation Security Administration, ” Flyers, MMGY Travel Intelligence, Future Partners, Baby Boomers, Chirag Panchal, Dallas Locations: Hawaii , Florida, Portland , Oregon, U.S, Navan, Portland, Europe, London, France, Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, Dallas
“It kept these players alive that couldn’t survive in normal situations.”Competition from juggernauts like Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Home Depot and other big-box retailers has also squeezed smaller chains. In 2017 and 2018, retailers closed a combined 13,400 stores, according to Coresight. Retailers closed a record 9,800 stores in 2019. Around 9,700 stores closed in 2020, according to Coresight. Drug store chains are also shrinking.
Persons: , , Michael Brown, Kearney, ” Brown, Barbara Kahn, Charlotte Russe, Shopko, Ted Decker, Joann Fabric, Denny’s, Kelli Valade, Justin Sullivan, Amazon’s, It’s, ” Kahn, TJ Maxx, TJX Organizations: New, New York CNN, Walgreens, Research, Companies, Consumers, , Walmart, Costco, Home, ” Retailers, United, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Coresight, Retailers, Sears, P Global Market Intelligence, CVS, Aid, Marshalls, Aldi Locations: New York, , Amazon, United States, Gymboree, JCPenney, Tijuana, HomeGoods
For Chinese imports, Trump has proposed an even steeper 60% tariff. Many economists have warned that tariffs planned by Trump will hurt global economic growth and drive up inflation in the US, as well as abroad if other countries introduce higher levies on US imports in response. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees a hit to global gross domestic product from increased tariffs around the world, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. Mario Tama/Getty ImagesA rise in protectionism around the world means open trade is already under threat and the ability of its champion, the World Trade Organization, to settle international trade disputes is severely constrained. “What we’d see in Trump 2 is far more radical than what we saw in Trump 1.”
Persons: Smoot, Donald Trump, Federal Reserve — Trump, Trump, , Evan Vucci, he’s, Maurice Obstfeld, Kristalina Georgieva, , Mario Tama, ” Obstfeld, ” Petros Mavroidis, Scott Olson, Joe Biden, André Sapir, Bruegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Trump, ” Edward Alden, ” Alden Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Republican, UBS, Monetary Fund, ABN AMRO, Peterson Institute, IMF, White, Port, World Trade Organization, CNN, Columbia Law School, US, European Union, EU, greenback, Foreign Relations, Locations: United States, Hawley, Washington, DC, China, Ukraine, Chicago, Japan, France, South Korea, Port of Los Angeles, Indiana, Portage , Indiana, Brussels, Trump
Treasury yields are raining on the stock market's parade. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield soared above 4.2% on Tuesday for the first time since late July. The bank compiled different scenarios for how the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields may react, depending on the election outcome. "We think a blue or red sweep is likely to impact Treasury yields more than a divided government," traders at the bank wrote. "We expect FSLR to benefit from either candidate winning the presidential election," analyst Vikram Bagri wrote.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Kamala Harris, Vikram Bagri Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Trump, NBC News, Citi, Democratic, Republican Locations: China
"We find President Trump's campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances," the CRFB budget group said in a blog post. Social Security trust funds are set to be exhausted by Fiscal Year 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "If you cut income taxes and cut payroll taxes, then you're going to have an impact on Social Security," Freese said. "I don't believe the Trump campaign is looking to undermine Social Security," said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration. "And likewise, Social Security is so big, any changes to Social Security will affect other things."
Persons: Trump's, Trump, Karoline Leavitt, Leavitt, Kamala Harris, Maria Freese, Freese, Harris, Andrew Biggs, Biggs Organizations: Republican, CNBC, Social Security, Democratic, Social, Congressional, Trump, National Committee, Preserve Social Security, Medicare, American Enterprise Institute, Social Security Administration, Security Locations: Monday's
But what was most impressive about this game was the Packers’ defense. Love has to be better and the offense will have better days, but the Packers defense was lights out. The Lions are the best team in the NFC at the moment, maybe even the best team overall. But the Lions looked like the best team in the division heading into the season, and they looked like the best team in the division on Sunday. He is on a pace to rush for 1,864 yards — his best season by far.
Persons: Saquon Barkley, Jeff Howe, Ted Nguyen, Dan Pompei, Jordan Love’s, C.J, Matt LaFleur, Jeff Hafley, Brett Favre, Love, Favre, Howe, I’m, Caleb Williams, Aidan Hutchinson, Will Aaron Glenn, Jared Goff, Goff, Brian Flores, he’s, Flores, Sam Darnold, he’ll, Williams, Barkley, aren’t, didn’t, They’ve, Andre Cisco, Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr, Stephen Maturen Organizations: NFC, NFL, Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, The Athletic NFL, Packers, Texans, Stroud, Love’s Packers, AFC, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, Bears, Lions, Vikings, Detroit, New York Giants, Eagles, Patriots, Jaguars, Jacksonville, Indianapolis Colts Locations: London, Stroud, New York, Jacksonville
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . LVMH, the largest of the luxury conglomerates, announced its third-quarter earnings this week, and the results were grim. AdvertisementWhile personal luxury sales in China grew by more than 37% each year from 2019 through 2021, that annual growth is not expected to hit more than 4.2% through 2028, according to EMARKETER data. AdvertisementEMARKETER's Canaves pointed to the collaborations and moves toward streetwear that helped some brands emerge from the last luxury slump. Of course, any expansion into new categories should not take attention from handbags and clothing, the revenue drivers of luxury brands.
Persons: LVMH, , Louis Vuitton, Salvatore Ferragamo, Goldman Sachs, Gucci, Hermès, Jean, Jacques Guiony, Adam Cochrane, Chanel, Canaves, Guiony, Birkin, Deutsche Bank's Cochrane, Cartier, Brunello Cucinelli, Rambourg, Louis Organizations: Service, Revenue, Louis, Burberry, Business, Deutsche Bank, Gucci, Deutsche Bank's, Chez Locations: China, Asia, Japan, COVID, streetwear, Paris
My family of six spent $2,677 for a day at Disneyland and $1,990 for a day at Universal Studios. AdvertisementBoth parks provide great entertainment, but Universal has one show Disney can't compete with"WaterWorld" blew our family away. Our Universal line-skipping passes had a steeper price tag at $600 compared to the $180 we paid for Disney's equivalent service. Even so, our Universal tickets still cost about $200 less than the Disney ones. We enjoyed Disney and Universal for different reasons, but the latter was better for my familyMy family had a great time at Universal.
Persons: , Daryl Austin, Minnie, Winnie, Harry Potter Organizations: Universal Studios, Universal, Service, Universal Studios Hollywood, Disney, Tiana's, Cafe Orleans, Nintendo, Lightning, nab Locations: California
Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China
Metros in Florida, Texas, and other states are seeing prices fall by as much as 12%, per Realtor.com. Miami, FloridaPedro Portal/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty ImagesMedian list price: $525,000Change from last year: -12.4%2. Orlando, FloridaSmithlandia Media/Getty ImagesMedian list price: $429,950Change from last year: -5.6%Advertisement9. Tampa, FloridaJohn Coletti/Getty ImagesMedian list price: $414,948Change from last year: -5.5%10. Nashville, TennesseeJohn Coletti/Getty ImagesMedian list price: $547,865Change from last year: -5.4%
Persons: , Miami , Florida Pedro, Swapan Jha, San Francisco , California Nicholas Klein, Kansas City , Missouri Edwin Remsberg, Austin , Texas RYAN KYTE, Jacksonville , Florida Dan Reynolds, Tampa , Florida John Coletti, Nashville , Tennessee John Coletti Organizations: Metros, Service, metros, Miami Herald, Tribune, Getty, Kansas, Orlando , Florida Smithlandia Locations: Florida , Texas, Realtor.com, Florida, Texas, Miami , Florida, Cincinnati , Ohio, San Francisco , California, Kansas City , Missouri, Austin ,, Jacksonville , Florida, Denver , Colorado, Orlando , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Nashville , Tennessee
A big jump in retail spending would be the next data point indicating a "no landing" of the economy. A no-landing scenario occurs when strong economic growth fuels inflation and hinders rate cuts. Bank of America analysts expect September retail sales data, set for release on October 17, to show a 0.8% surge. "Monthly retail sales data can be volatile. If retail sales accelerate considerably, in our view, the narrative may shift further toward 'no landing' or even re-acceleration," they said.
Persons: , Helene Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank, America
Some of the biggest losing stocks in 2024 could be in for even steeper declines as investors jettison them to save on taxes, according to Morgan Stanley. Such moves, known as tax loss harvesting, helps investors trim their tax bills the next year. Boeing pressure Beleaguered aerospace company Boeing was also called out by Morgan Stanley as likely to see pressure tied to tax loss selling. Morgan Stanley also called out oil service giant Halliburton . Other names on Morgan Stanley's list include Chord Energy , Simply Good Foods and timeshare operator Hilton Grand Vacations .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michelle Weaver, Morgan, Jackson Ader, Ronald Epstein, who's, Epstein, Keith Mackey Organizations: Nasdaq, Wall, Computer, Adobe, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Bank of America, Aerospace, Defense, Halliburton, RBC Capital, HAL, Energy, Hilton Locations: Alaska, Seattle
Propelled by US incentives, Saudi Arabia and Israel seemed closer than ever to a historic normalization of relations. It was October 10, and Major General Itai Veruv of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was leading the first international press access to see the devastation of Hamas’ attacks. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unwilling to be a partner in a deal that would resow Middle East relations. Nearly 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, many by US bombs and bullets in Israel’s hands, authorities in Gaza say. Tehran’s Shia proxies in Iraq have also answered its calls and begun escalating drone attacks on Israel.
Persons: Butchery, Yahya Sinwar, Itai Veruv, General Eisenhower, Benjamin Netanyahu, Jack Guez, haven’t, Israel’s, Netanyahu, Joe Biden’s, Hassan Nasrallah, Israel –, Biden, Mohammed Bin Salman, Anwar Gargash, cleaver Organizations: CNN, Hamas, Aza, Israel Defense Forces, Israel's, Getty, West Bank, Saudi, Saudi’s Crown, MBS Locations: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, AFP, Lebanon, Iran, United States, Tehran, Tel Aviv, Iraq, Saudi, Palestinian, UAE
Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's
AdvertisementIn recent years, many young people have questioned whether the benefits of a college degree are worth the cost of tuition. According to a new survey, college graduates appear to have a clear edge in one area: their social lives. However, the widespread decline in socialization in recent decades has been steeper for people without a college degree. AdvertisementAdditionally, people without a college degree may also be more likely to work multiple jobs, or have roles with unpredictable hours, Pressler said. Going to college can be a "supercharger of relationships"Of course, some of the social benefits of a college degree date back to the connections fostered on campuses.
Persons: , American Enterprise Institute —, Vivek Murthy, Sam Pressler, Pressler, they'd Organizations: Service, Survey Center, American Enterprise Institute, Survey, University, Virginia's, of Democracy, YMCA
Modelo and Corona brewer Constellation Brands is a tale of two businesses. Constellation Brands Why we own it : Constellation Brands' beer franchise, which includes popular Mexican brands Modelo, Corona and Pacifico, is the growth engine and by far the most attractive part of the business. And, the profitability of its beer business — operating margins were an impressive 42.6% in the quarter — puts Constellation in a position of strength. Still, raising an anchor is always welcome news, and talk of its booming beer business would, at last, no longer need the wine-and-spirits caveat. Looking ahead, its beer business should continue grabbing market share and its hard to imagine the wine-and-spirits unit getting much worse.
Persons: Bill Newlands, Thursday's, Newlands, Kim Crawford, There's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Corona, Constellation Brands, LSEG, Modelo, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Molson Coors, Investors, Constellation, National Football League, Bloomberg, Brier, Modelo Especial, CNBC Locations: Corona, Pacifico, Wednesday's, U.S, Campo, West Coast, San Rafael , California
Bill Gates' ideal tax system would leave him worth 62% less, but still a billionaire. The Microsoft cofounder said the rich should pay higher taxes and give the rest to good causes. The Future with Bill Gates." Gates' latest comments suggest he'd like to be about $100 billion less wealthy at around $62 billion. He's previously said he would have paid "tens of billions" more in taxes if he'd designed the US tax system.
Persons: Bill Gates, , Microsoft wouldn't, Gates, Kara Swisher, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, that's, Melinda Gates, whatever's, He's, he'd Organizations: Microsoft, Service, Netflix, Bloomberg, Melinda Gates Foundation Locations: Korea, America
Otis Keys II, 41, The Colony, Texas UPS driver grappling with smaller average paychecks despite a new union contract. When Otis Keys II hit top-level pay for his role at UPS in 2019, he expected to start checking items off his financial bucket list. That’s not what happened, even after the Teamsters union he belongs to negotiated a historic new contract last summer. “There’s a lot of guys that actually had to take a hard layoff and sit home.”Primary source of income: Keys drives full time for UPS. A UPS spokesperson said feeder drivers “are the best compensated in the industry” and “their total pay and benefits package is valued at nearly double our competitors’.”Otis Keys II is a feeder truck driver at UPS.
Persons: Otis Keys, Kamala Harris, , , , Keys, he’s, Kara Deniz, ” Otis Keys, ” Keys, “ I’m, that’s, , “ sneakerholic, “ I’ve, Tesla, Elon Musk, Trump, Trump “, Harris Organizations: NBC, UPS, Teamsters, Fort, Texas, The, Utilities, Dallas, Democratic, Trump, Republican Locations: Colony, Texas, The, Dallas, Fort Worth, U.S, Arlington, New York, America, Tx,
The job market is about to see a big shift that could bring faster Fed rate cuts, David Rosenberg said. That will emphasize the need for faster Fed rate cuts, he said in a note to clients. The ratio of the vacancy rate to the unemployment rate has tumbled in recent months. It's the unemployment rate that's moving up (+0.5 percentage points this year alone), while the vacancy rate has stabilized." "As the labor market eases, we'll see more modest changes in the vacancy rate and larger changes in the unemployment rate.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg, we've, Powell Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Atlanta
Why oil prices have plunged 3% today
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Saudi Arabia is committed to boosting oil output in December, the FT reported. The kingdom is resigning itself to a period a lower prices, sources told the FT.Oil markets spiraled on the news, falling as much as 4% on Thursday. AdvertisementA report that Saudi Arabia would ditch its unofficial crude price target sent crude oil prices sharply lower on Thursday. In essence, the kingdom is giving in to lower prices, FT sources said. The eastern-based faction has committed to reopening the country's oil fields in response, a move that could bring more crude output back online.
Persons: , Brent Organizations: FT ., Service, Financial Times, West Texas Intermediate, Saudi, Bloomberg Locations: Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Iraq, Kazakhstan, China, Libya
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during an 'In Conversation' event with Debbie Weinstein, managing Director Goole UK&I during the Labour Party Conference at the ACC Liverpool. Liverpool, ENGLAND — U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted on Tuesday that tough decisions taken now will spark a new era for Britain, as he sought to shake a fog of pessimism that has clouded his new premiership. "Change must mean nothing less than national renewal," he told a crowd of Labour Party delegates Tuesday. Wes Streeting, minister for health and social care, said that promised improvements to the U.K.'s National Health Service (NHS) would take time to implement. We need to rebuild the economy, rebuild public services and rebuild trust in politics," he said at the conference Monday.
Persons: Sir Keir Starmer, Debbie Weinstein, Keir Starmer, Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Wes Streeting, Tulip Siddiq Organizations: Goole, Labour Party Conference, ACC Liverpool, Labour Party, Conservative, Wealth Fund, Finance, National Health Service, Treasury, Labour, CNBC, Conservative Party Locations: Liverpool, ENGLAND, Britain, England
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