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If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, , Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where the Federal Reserve goes from here, their thoughts on the overall economy, and more.
Persons: Betsey Stevenson Joseph LaVorgna, Betsey Stevenson Organizations: Nikko Securities America, University of Michigan, Federal
TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the biggest focus for the Japanese economy now was to ensure that momentum for wage growth stayed in place, with a 3% rise in nominal pay to back efforts to meet the 2% inflation target. "His emphasis on wage growth probably meant the BOJ will retain its easy policy until wage hikes are firmly in place following the labour talks next March." "The biggest focus now is whether this (wage growth) momentum will be maintained or not from now on as well." Noguchi said household inflation expectations are steadily rising, but if wage growth lags behind price hikes, consumers would have no choice but to reduce their spending, as seen lately. "The BOJ's mission for the time being is to realise it (positive growth in real wages) through patient monetary easing," Noguchi said.
Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Yoshimasa Maruyama, Tetsushi, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Niigata, Tokyo
Japan will take appropriate steps against excessive moves in the yen "without ruling out any options", Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday, keeping markets on alert over the chance of yen-buying intervention. Suzuki told reporters he would not comment on whether Tokyo intervened in the exchange rate market overnight to prop up the yen. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda told reporters early on Wednesday that authorities were looking at various factors, including implied volatility, in determining whether yen moves were excessive. He declined to comment on whether the overnight yen moves were excessive. He added that Japan was acting in accordance with an agreement with its G7 and G20 partners, which includes a commitment to the stance that excessive exchange rate moves are undesirable.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Masato Kanda, that's, Kanda, Fumio Kishida, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThat cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. "The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate." That sentiment was buttressed this week, when at least four central bank officials either endorsed hikes or indicated that higher rates would be staying in place for an extended period. Consumers, for one, are feeling the squeeze of higher rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards to personal loans. "Now, at some point, my guess is that markets will eventually get to cheap enough levels where you'll bring buyers in.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Larry McDonald, Treasurys, McDonald, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Labor Department, Wall, P Bank ETF, Congressional, Treasury Department, The, White House, National Economic Council, Nikko Securities Locations: New York City, Washington, U.S
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s business sentiment improved in the third quarter, a central bank survey showed, suggesting conditions for a durable economic revival are falling into place even as a global slowdown keeps policymakers cautious about the outlook. Big non-manufacturers’ index stood at 27, up from 23, the survey showed, above a median market forecast of 24 and improving for the sixth straight quarter. The survey showed big manufacturers expect conditions to improve three months ahead, though sluggish global demand and signs of weakness in China’s economy cloud the outlook. “The tankan showed Japan is on track for a domestic-demand led growth. But analysts expect a mild contraction in the July-September quarter as sluggish global demand weigh on exports.
Persons: Maki Shiraki, , Marcel Thieliant, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Nissan, Co, Ltd's, EV, REUTERS, Companies, Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Big, Nikko Securities Locations: TOKYO, Tochigi prefecture, Japan, Asia, U.S
The forecasts seem at odds as higher rates raise the credit costs that can crimp the economy. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -68.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.31%. Oil prices rose as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban countered demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and higher interest rates.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Joe LaVorgna, SMBC, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Aich, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgnaJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk current market risks, the probability of a recession and more.
Persons: fmr, Joe LaVorgna Joseph LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities America
Europe's weaker economy limits fallout of US bond rout
  + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Last week, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched their highest relative to Germany's since December. For rate-sensitive short-dated German bond yields yields are even down 17 bps in August as weak data has raised expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike pause in September. SPILLOVERBofA, Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect Treasury yields to end the year slightly below current levels. Barclays's Khanna estimates German bond yields would have been 50-60 bps lower had they only been driven by domestic factors. The spillover from higher Treasury yields is more challenging elsewhere.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mauro Valle, Valle, Salman Ahmed, Rohan Khanna, Fitch, Mondher, SPILLOVER BofA, Goldman Sachs, Jackson, Barclays's Khanna, Frederik Ducrozet, Ataru Okumura, Yoruk, Chiara Elisei, Junko Fujita, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, Generali Investment Partners, European Central Bank, Fidelity International, U.S, Fitch, AAA, Vontel Asset Management, Barclays, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ECB, Pictet Wealth Management, of Japan, Nikko Securities, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Europe, Germany, Britain, Germany's, It's, Italy, France, Japan, Amsterdam, London, Tokyo
Market reactions to Powell speech
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, , ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO
"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, recession fears, the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, and more.
Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jackson Organizations: Nikko Securities America Locations: U.S
Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: "Credit risk at this point is mispriced." The move prompted a sell-off in equities and slight widening in corporate credit spreads. The average investment-grade bond spreads as of on Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels. "With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk," BMO’s Krieter said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Cindy Beaulieu, Edward Marrinan, Moody's, Daniel Krieter, Krieter, Marrinan, Manuel Hayes, Hayes, BMO’s Krieter, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, London, Insight Investment, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
What does Moody’s downgrade mean for markets?
  + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Moody’s on Monday evening downgraded 10 US banks and put the credit ratings of six others on review, an indication that the agency could also eventually downgrade those institutions. Some investors say that while the Moody’s downgrade isn’t groundbreaking, it’s a reminder that the economy, and markets, still have challenges ahead. Moody’s downgraded Commerce Bank, BOK Financial, M&T Bank, Old National Bank, Prosperity Bank, Amarillo National Bank, Webster Financial, Fulton Financial, Pinnacle Financial and Associated Bank. Wall Street firms fined $549 million for using WhatsApp and other channelsWells Fargo is among a number of Wall Street firms that admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million, reports my colleague Matt Egan.
Persons: CNN — Moody’s, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Goldman Sachs, BNY, Cullen, Frost, ” Moody’s, , Kara Murphy, Fitch, Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, Price, Matt Egan, Houlihan Lokey, Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Banking, BNY Mellon, Northern Trust, Frost Bankers, Truist Financial, US Bank, Moody’s, Commerce Bank, BOK, T Bank, National Bank, Prosperity Bank, Amarillo National Bank, Webster Financial, Fulton Financial, Pinnacle Financial, Associated Bank, PNC Financial Services, Financial, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bank, Huntington Bank, Regions Financial, Cadence Bank, FNB Corp, Simmons, Ally Financial, Bank OZK, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Reserve, Kestra Investment Management, Consumer, Wall Street, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Wells Fargo, Amarillo, Marinac, Wells, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York
The SEC and CFTC have fined a group of Wall Street firms a combined $549 million. The firms admitted to employees using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. A pair of regulatory agencies on Tuesday announced large fines for a group of Wall Street banks that admitted to using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. The Securities and Exchange Commission is fining nine firms a total of $289 million, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued $260 million in fines, for a combined sum of $549 million. The Wednesday announcements bring the SEC's total fines related to the matter to $1.5 billion, while the CFTC's statement said it's imposed more than $1 billion in penalties to date.
Persons: Grewal, SEC Wells, Houlihan Lokey Organizations: SEC, CFTC, Wall Street, BNP, BMO Capital Markets, Morning, Securities, Exchange, Futures Trading, Americas Securities, Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities USA, Company, Wedbush Securities, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo, Wall
WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Tuesday hit another batch of Wall Street firms with $549 million in civil penalties over widespread record-keeping failures related to employees' use of personal text messages and other messaging apps. Eleven firms, including Wells Fargo Securities and BNP Paribas Securities Corp, have agreed to pay $289 million in fines to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to resolve the allegations. Regulators require broker dealers and investment advisers to keep certain work-related communications, but Wall Street dealers have increasingly used personal devices in recent years. Spokespeople for BNP, which agreed to pay $110 million to the regulators, and Mizuho, which agreed to pay $25 million to the SEC, declined to comment. The regulators have already fined units of JPMorgan Chase and Co (JPM.N), Barclays, Bank of America and others for similar record-keeping failures.
Persons: Wells, Société, Spokespeople, Gurbir Grewal, Chris Prentice, Susan Heavey, Nivedita Balu, Nupur Anand, Saeed Azhar, Bernadette Baum, Jason Neely Organizations: Wall Street, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, BNP Paribas Securities Corp, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Futures Trading, BNP, Bank of Montreal, Wedbush Securities Inc, Wall, SEC, CFTC, Mizuho, Nikko Securities, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Bank of America, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Nikko, New York, Washington, Toronto
New York CNN —Wells Fargo and a slew of other Wall Street firms admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million. The SEC said the firms violated federal securities laws by failing to maintain or preserve the “substantial majority” of these communications. Another regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also fined four of the same Wall Street firms for failing to maintain records and failing to supervise matters related to their businesses. The CFTC hit Bank of Montreal with a $35 million fine and a $75 million fine each for BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Wells Fargo.
Persons: Wells, Houlihan Lokey, ” Sanjay Wadhwa Organizations: New, New York CNN, Securities, Exchange Commission, Wall Street, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Bank of Montreal, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp
That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point aheadJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to help make sense of market moves with the economy, Fed, GDP and markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the FM Traders.
Persons: Joe LaVorgna, Joseph LaVorgna, Melissa Lee Organizations: Nikko Securities America, FM Traders
If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.
Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed might cut rates this year if the U.S. gets weak employment data, says SMBC's Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the possibility of a recession, recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and what would need to happen in order for the Fed to cut rates.
Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nikko Securities America, Fed Locations: U.S
AMSTERDAM, June 14 (Reuters) - Electric grid operator TenneT Holding (IPO-TTH.AS) said on Wednesday it has signed an 8 billion euro ($8.63 billion) credit facility to support its spending plans as it awaits a deal to sell its German operations to the German state. Governments of the two countries have said they hope to agree a deal on the sale of TenneT Germany this summer and close a deal by the end of 2023, though talks have been going slowly. TenneT, which had a debt-heavy balance sheet of 38.5 billion euros at the end of 2022, in March estimated equity needs at its German arm of 15 billion euros and of 10 billion euros at its Dutch arm. TenneT said the 2.5-year facility is provided by BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, BNG, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, ING, Rabobank, Santander, SMBC Nikko, and UniCredit. ($1 = 0.9271 euros)($1 = 0.9268 euros)Reporting by Toby Sterling, Editing by Louise Heavens and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: TenneT, Toby Sterling, Louise Heavens, Sharon Singleton Organizations: TenneT, BNP, ABN AMRO, Deutsche Bank, ING, Rabobank, Santander, Thomson Locations: AMSTERDAM, Dutch, Germany, Netherlands, BNG, Nikko
Japan's Q1 GDP growth seen revised up on strong capex
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TOKYO, June 2 (Reuters) - Japan's economy likely grew more than initially estimated in the first three months of this year, thanks to solid investments by manufacturers, a Reuters poll showed. Economists also projected Japan's current account balance stayed in black in April thanks to a smaller services deficit as tourists flocked back to the country. The median estimate for April current account stands at a surplus of 1.6638 trillion yen ($12 billion). The government will release the revised first-quarter GDP figures and the current account balance data at 8:50 a.m. on June 8 (2350 GMT, June 7). Household spending data is due at 8:30 a.m. on June 6 (2330 GMT, June 5).
Persons: Kantaro Komiya, Kim Coghill Organizations: Ministry of Finance, Manufacturers, Nikko Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is making a classic policy mistake, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, former NEC chief economist and SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether a hike or pause in rates is more likely this month, and more.
Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: NEC, Nikko Securities America
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