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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVery difficult to take risk in equities when bond yields are at 5%, says Wells Fargo's SamanaSameer Samana, Wells Fargo senior global market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether equity markets can close the month on a positive note, what could boost the fourth quarter's equity performance, and more.
Persons: Wells, Sameer Samana Locations: Wells Fargo
Since the central bank kicked off its policy-tightening campaign in March 2022 — boosting interest rates 11 times — income investors have benefited from higher yields on Treasurys, money market funds and certificates of deposit. "From here, even if rates go higher you are locking in some really good income." If you're willing to sacrifice a little bit of liquidity, select banks will pay even higher yields. Drivers of those increases include higher-for-longer interest rates, and competition from Treasurys and money market funds, Graseck added. Money market funds Rates on money market funds have also jumped substantially since the rate-hiking campaign started.
Persons: Greg McBride, reinvest, US2Y, Treasurys, Sameer Samana, Sallie Mae, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Savings, Synchrony, Bread Financial, Investment Company Locations: maturities, Wells Fargo
U.S. retail sales also climbed 0.6% last month, against estimates of a 0.2% rise, while initial jobless claims for the latest week fell to 220.000. "We've been waiting to see exactly which of these inflation data trends would kind of knock the market off its axis. "It's likely that while the Federal Reserve won't love the August inflation data, it also is soft enough that they likely won't react to it either. ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, CONNECTICUT"Most of the rise in prices is coming from energy. "I still believe we have seen the last of the rate hikes, but there is a possibility small that November still has the potential to bring another rate hike.
Persons: Robert Graham, King, King of Prussia, Mark Makela, SAMEER SAMANA, WELLS, We've, haven't, GREG BASSUK, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, ROBERT PAVLIK, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Reuters, CHARLOTTE, Federal, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Prussia, United States, King, King of Prussia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WELLS FARGO, NORTH CAROLINA, BOSTON, DAKOTA, CONNECTICUT, WISCONSIN
Strong economic growth has spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave rates higher for longer, pushing Treasury yields this month to their highest levels since 2007. The S&P 500 has lost 4% this month as the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a more than 15-year high of 4.366% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) has dropped 5.7%, bitcoin has fallen over 10% and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.P) - a bastion of many high-growth names - has dropped 18.5%. Stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.7% and futures pointed to a further rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is over 8% below its January 2022 closing high.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, bitcoin, Sameer Samana, , Jerome Powell, Matt Maley, Miller, Goldman Sachs, Randy Frederick, Frederick, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Bill Berkrot Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Innovation, U.S ., Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Lipper, Investor, Deutsche Bank, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Samana, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The major U.S. averages have been in negative territory this month , and valuations are coming down from their lofty heights. The S & P 500 has declined 4% this month, and the Nasdaq Composite about 6%. Still, there are some who are optimistic on the S & P 500, which is at around 4,404 as of Wednesday's close. George Ball, chairman of investment firm Sanders Morris Harris, predicts that S & P 500 will land at 5,000. ZoomInfo's losses were among the biggest, tumbling nearly 30%, with average price target upside of 49%.
Persons: Sameer Samana, George Ball, Sanders Morris Harris, Stocks, Baidu, SolarEdge Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S . Federal, Vanguard FTSE, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, CNBC Pro, PayPal, ON Semiconductor, Infineon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Samana, Snowflake
Treasury yields and stocks have more upside ahead, according to some Wall Street investors, and annuities are yielding more than ever. So if you're nearing — or already in — retirement, which offers the best source of income? Stocks vs. annuities David Dietze, senior investment strategist at Peapack Private Wealth Management, recommended annuities and stocks — with some caveats. Right now, however, Rekenthaler said he would go for annuities, bonds or funds because real interest rates are high. Treasurys Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute said she likes Treasurys best — given the firm's expectations of a recession.
Persons: David Dietze, Dietze, John Rekenthaler, Rekenthaler, Samana, Morningstar Organizations: CNBC, Wealth Management, Morningstar, Securities, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, ExxonMobil, Shell Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, Samana
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket gains could start broadening into cyclical sectors like financials: Edward Jones' MahajanMona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, and Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk earnings, the banking sector, the markets as a whole and more.
Persons: Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan, Sameer Samana Organizations: Email, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo
The bullish view Just four of the 15 strategists expect the S & P 500 to end the year higher than current levels, albeit very slightly. He expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,500 — up 2.3% from its current level. Instead, Peng said the S & P 500 's performance will likely broaden over the second half of this year. She expects the S & P 500 to remain flat by the end of the year at 4,300. UBS expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,100 — a drop of 7% from current levels.
Persons: Stocks, BlackRock Karim Chedid, Jerome Powell, Karim Chedid, Chedid, Chadha, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders, Ken Peng, Peng, Savita Subramanian, Andreas Bruckner, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Matt Rowe, Mark Haefele, Christian Abuide, Sameer Samana, Rowe, Wouter Sturkenboom, Sturkenboom Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Citi Global Wealth Investments, Big Tech, Bank of, Equity, Nomura, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, UBS, Lombard, RBC Wealth Management, U.S, Global Market, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Nomura Private Capital, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Northern, Samana
The financials sector is down 2%, while energy is nearly 9% lower. These unloved sectors are growing attractive to investors increasingly torn over whether a long-feared U.S. recession will ever materialize. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial noted a "tug of war" in the market over the likelihood of a recession. The healthcare sector trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6, well below the 20.1 ratio of the broad S&P 500. Yet a continued rally in megacaps will likely stretch their valuations further, prompting some investors to rotate toward healthcare and financials, LPL Financial's Krosby said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Sameer Samana, Max Wasserman, Financials, Tom Ognar, Morgan Stanley, John Quealy, Financial's Krosby, David Randall, Megan Davies, Michelle Price, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Global, BofA, Commerce Department, LPL Financial, Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, FINANCIALS, Miramar Capital, Abbott Laboratories, Allspring Global Investments, LPL Financial Holdings Inc, Trillium Asset Management, Russell, Thomson Locations: U.S, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, megacaps
Investors should target high-quality stocks with a recession coming, according to a Wells Fargo strategist. "Move into larger cap, higher quality US equities – we like the energy, materials and healthcare sectors," Sameer Samana told Yahoo Finance. "Move into larger-cap, higher-quality US equities," Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told Yahoo Finance. "We like the energy, materials and healthcare sectors." But Samana cautioned against loading up on mega-cap tech stocks only without diversifying into other sectors, likening the AI buzz to the dot-com boom in the late 1990s.
Persons: Sameer Samana, , fretting, Samana, Price Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Wells, Investment Institute, Federal Reserve Locations: Wells, Samana
The S&P 500 now trades at 19 times its expected 12-months earnings, well above its historic average of 15.6 times, Refinitiv Datastream showed. WFII recently downgraded the technology sector, which has led this year's S&P 500 rally, to "neutral" from "favorable," citing "unattractive" valuations. Goldman urged investors to consider "downside protection" to their stock portfolios, though they expect the S&P 500 to reach 4,500 by year-end, or about 3.5% above current levels. Valuations are even more stretched for the Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), whose 36% rally this year has dwarfed that of the S&P 500. "From a near-term perspective, investors should expect stocks to just cool a little bit."
Persons: Refinitiv Datastream, Goldman Sachs, Sameer Samana, WFII, Goldman, Refinitiv, Michael Purves, Purves, Anthony Saglimbene, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Tallbacken Capital, Deutsche Bank, Ameriprise, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo
That’s a strange place to find a bull market. After a horrible year for Big Tech in 2022, optimism has returned as ChatGPT has made AI the it-thing in Silicon Valley. That brought an end to the bear market that began in January 2022, since a 20% lift from recent lows is generally accepted as the definition of the start of a bull market. However, there is no exact definition — and the current market situation is a bit more nuanced than the typical bull market-bear market binary. The silver liningEntering a bull market lifts investor sentiment, which could propel upward momentum in markets.
Persons: , Sameer Samana, ChatGPT, Tesla, Matt Bartolini, It’s, Apple iPhones, Berkshire Hathaway, James Demmert, , don’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Big Tech, Investors, Apple, Nvidia, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Meta, Google, Berkshire, Main, Research, Bank of America Locations: New York, United States, Europe, Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, SPDR Americas, Meta,
It’s official. We’re in a bull market
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
The S&P 500 rallied Thursday to end the day in a bull market, marking a 20% surge since its most recent low, reached on October 12, 2022. Buoyed by gains in big technology stocks, the broad-based index closed at 4,293.93 and crossed the threshold that separates a bear market from a bull market — that’s investor-speak for a period of time marked by rising stock prices and optimism on Wall Street. “The key difference for us is that you tend to see bull markets coincide with economic expansions, not economic contractions.”Still, since the last bull market, we’ve had a war in Europe, a banking crisis and a debt crisis among other dramas. The duck marketThe current situation is a bit more nuanced than the bull market-bear market binary, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Schwab. “Such narrowness is not what new bull markets are built on.”The bottom line: Investors should “avoid getting sucked into this as a new bull market,” said Samana.
Persons: bullish, ChatGPT, “ We’re, ” Sameer Samana, we’ve, , Kevin Gordon, Schwab, Lisa Shalett, they’ve, Sam Stovall, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Big Tech, Google, Apple, Nvidia, Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, CNN, Tech, US, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Fed Locations: New York, Silicon Valley, Wells Fargo, Europe, Samana
A recipe for a bull market, apparently. “The key difference for us is that you tend to see bull markets coincide with economic expansions, not economic contractions.”Still, since the last bull market, we’ve had a pandemic, a war in Europe, a banking crisis and a debt crisis among other dramas. “Such narrowness is not what new bull markets are built on.”The bottom line: Investors should “avoid getting sucked into this as a new bull market,” said Samana. A nationwide UPS strike would be the largest work stoppage in US history, reports my colleague Vanessa Yurkevich. US Bankruptcies reach highest level in 13 yearsChapter 11 filings in the US have reached their highest levels since the end of the Great Recession, according to new data from S&P Global Market Intelligence..
Persons: “ We’re, ” Sameer Samana, we’ve, , Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Lisa Shalett, they’ve, Vanessa Yurkevich, We’ve, Fred Zuckerman, pare Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, CNN, Tech, Nvidia, US, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, UPS, Teamsters, , Brotherhood of Teamsters, 1st, , , P Global Market Intelligence, Bed, P, Retail, City Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, Europe, Samana, America
NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead. "Typically in a recession, small caps underperform." Last month it downgraded its view on U.S. small caps from "unfavorable" to "most unfavorable." Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months. One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.
Minneapolis CNN —The labor market heated back up in April as employers added 253,000 jobs, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s a surprising increase at a time when many indicators were pointing to a slowdown in the job market. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%. Only three economists of the 87 polled by Refinitiv had projected job growth near or above 253,000. In March, the monthly and annual measures of wage gains in the private sector was up 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively.
US March CPI comes in on the cool side
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Year to date, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest 12-month gain since May 2021. "The data was a little bit better than what was expected, so that tells me that the bond market is saying that the probability of this next rate hike has decreased just a little bit." "The other number that's important is the PPI number that comes out this week. That will probably change a little bit today as people digest this data, maybe even within the next half an hour or so." It weakens the argument for a pause.”“Futures are going up based on the topline number, that’s what markets are focusing on.”“Inflation is cooling down.
Two-year yields have risen from a seven-month intraday low of 3.555% last Friday as Treasuries rallied on safe-haven buying. "Some of the banks there were in the spotlight, their stock prices are starting to at least stabilize," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. The U.S. regional KBW bank index (.BKX) has tumbled about 25% this month, but has gained about 3.8% this week as tensions eased. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy from a number of major central banks, including the Fed and European Central Bank. Oil edged lower in choppy trading as investors looked to pocket profits from two straight days of gains, and as markets debated supply tightness.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic data still too hot so expect continued market volatility all year, says Wells Fargo's SamanaSameer Samana, Wells Fargo, joins 'Closing Bell' to offer his market outlook and why he expects rates to remain higher for longer.
S&P 500 index seen climbing 5% by end of 2023
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The S&P 500 was expected to end 2023 at 4,200 points, which would amount to a 9.4% increase for the calendar year, according to the median forecast of 42 strategists polled by Reuters. After falling 19.4% in 2022, the S&P 500 index is up 4.1% for the year so far. S&P valuations have fallen but still above 20-year averageAs of Feb. 17, Wall Street's expectation for S&P earnings growth for 2023 has fallen to 1.6% from an expected 4.4% on Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. But while Sandven's year-end S&P 500 target doesn't depend on interest rate cuts he said "it does depend on moderating inflation and improved earnings visibility". Strategists had expected the Dow to end 2023 at 36,500, according to a November poll.
The S&P 500 was expected to end 2023 at 4,200 points, which would amount to a 9.4% increase for the calendar year, according to the median forecast of 42 strategists polled by Reuters. After falling 19.4% in 2022, the S&P 500 index is up 4.1% for the year so far. S&P valuations have fallen but still above 20-year averageAs of Feb. 17, Wall Street's expectation for S&P earnings growth for 2023 has fallen to 1.6% from an expected 4.4% on Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. But while Sandven's year-end S&P 500 target doesn't depend on interest rate cuts he said "it does depend on moderating inflation and improved earnings visibility". Strategists had expected the Dow to end 2023 at 36,500, according to a November poll.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession is still likely with a backdrop of high interest rates, says Wells Fargo's Sameer SamanaBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners, and Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the day's market activity.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Vantage's Avery Sheffield, New York Life’s Lauren Goodwin and Wells Fargo’s Sameer SamanaVantage's Avery Sheffield, New York Life’s Lauren Goodwin and Wells Fargo’s Sameer Samana, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the markets and whether it's time for investors to go on the offensive in the market.
The heavyweight tech sector (.SPLRCT) dropped 1.9% while energy (.SPNY) shed 2.3%, the biggest drop among the S&P 500 sectors. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are expected to report results this week, which also includes central bank meetings in the United States and Europe and closely watched U.S. employment data. Despite Monday's declines, the S&P 500 remained on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019. With more than 140 companies having reported so far, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 3% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior-year period, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 67 new highs and 20 new lows.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate on Thursday. The swing in inventories was the wildcard and that added 1.46 percentage points to GDP growth. "If you look at the GDP data it does seem like we left 2022 with a little bit more momentum than people had thought and with consumption we're also in a pretty good spot. “We have a GDP number that is well above trend, and the previous quarter’s number was well above trend. That suggests higher rates were starting to take a bigger toll, and sets the stage for weaker growth in the first quarter of this year."
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