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Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters in these states, one-fifth of voters don’t like either of them, and enthusiasm about the coming election is down sharply compared with a poll conducted before the 2020 contest. That frustration and malaise have prompted voters to entertain the idea of other options. When asked about the likeliest 2024 matchup, Mr. Biden versus Mr. Trump, only 2 percent of those polled said they would support another candidate. But when Mr. Kennedy’s name was included as an option, nearly a quarter said they would choose him. That number almost surely inflates the support of Mr. Kennedy, the political scion and vaccine skeptic, because two-thirds of those who said they would back him had said earlier that they would definitely or probably vote for one of the two front-runners.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Mr, Kennedy Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College

The polls found that, for the most part, Mr. Trump is politically surviving the criminal charges against him before voting in the G.O.P. He leads Mr. Biden by between 4 and 10 percentage points in five of the six battleground states surveyed. A majority of voters say Mr. Trump’s policies helped them personally. Voters trust Mr. Trump more than Mr. Biden to manage the economy by a margin of 22 percentage points. On the economy, Mr. Trump is more trusted across every age group, among white and Hispanic voters and across the educational spectrum.

Persons: Trump, Mr, Biden, they’ve, — Organizations: White Locations: Wisconsin

The Times/Siena College battleground polls released on Sunday and Monday were conducted over the past week in six swing states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Five of the states were won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, which has always been a close state, came down to less than one percentage point in the 2022 U.S. Senate election. These states also contain some of the coalitions that will be crucial next fall: younger, more diverse voters in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada; and white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who helped swing the election to Trump in 2016, and were central to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. They also provide some geographic diversity.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joseph R, Biden, Biden’s Organizations: Trump Locations: Siena, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, . Nevada, Nevada, Michigan , Pennsylvania

☆ Americans Still Put Their Trust in Juries. Will Trump’s Trials Break That Faith?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Ruth Igielnik | More About Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

And those jurors will, no doubt, face intense scrutiny, which for many is reason enough to not want to serve. In fact, a majority of Americans said they were not personally interested in serving on a jury for Mr. Trump. The demographics of those who have served also differ notably from those of the general public. Two thirds of those who have served on a jury are over 50, compared with less than half of the general public. Former jurors skew slightly more Democratic than all Americans, and men are more likely than women to have served.

Persons: Trump

☆ These Voters Share Almost No Political Beliefs, but They Agree on One Thing: We’re Failing as a Nation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Ruth Igielnik | More About Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Why Republicans say the U.S. is in danger of failingRepublican fatalists, much like Republican voters overall, overwhelmingly support Donald J. Trump. This group is largely older — two-thirds of Republicans over 65 say the country is on the verge of failure — and less educated. They are also more likely than Republican voters overall to get their news from non-Fox conservative media sources like Newsmax or The Epoch Times. Many of these gloomy Republican see the Biden administration’s policies as pushing the country to the verge of collapse. “The first day Biden became president he ripped up everything good that happened with Trump; he opened the border — let everyone and anyone in.

Persons: fatalists, Donald J, ”, Margo Creamer, “, Biden, Trump, It’s, we’re Organizations: Republican, Trump, Fox, Epoch Times, Biden, Republicans Locations: Southern California

Early on March 18, former President Donald J. Trump hit send on a social media post saying he would be “arrested on Tuesday of next week.”“Protest,” he wrote on his Truth Social website. “Take our nation back!”Mr. Trump’s prediction was based on media reports, according to his lawyers, and his timing was off by two weeks. Yet the statement set in motion events that profoundly altered the course of the Republican nominating contest. The party apparatus rushed to defend Mr. Trump. These series of falling dominoes — call it the indictment effect — can be measured in ways that reveal much about the state of the Republican Party.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, ”, Donors Organizations: Republican, Fox News, Mr, Republican Party, New York Times

So far, however, having reservations about Mr. Trump’s alleged wrongdoing does not appear to be leading Republican voters to reconsider their support for him. Views of Mr. Trump have long been remarkably stable, and the public’s views of his potential criminality are no exception. About half of all voters say they think he has committed serious federal crimes, nearly identical to the share that held that view last year. Much like the overall public, Democrats have held firm in their views on Mr. Trump: Nearly 90 percent of Democrats consistently say they think Mr. Trump has committed serious federal crimes. To be sure, nearly 75 percent of Republicans still say Mr. Trump did not commit any serious federal crimes.

Persons: Trump’s, Trump Organizations: Republican, Times, Democrats Locations: Manhattan, Siena, Iowa

President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. Mr. Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else. Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.

Persons: Biden, Mr, Donald J, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Democrats, Republican

Mr. Smith is not the first special counsel to investigate Mr. Trump. Mr. Smith, by contrast, faces no such limits given that Mr. Trump is no longer in office. Mr. Mueller said little when faced with a barrage of falsehoods pushed publicly by Mr. Trump and his allies about him and his investigative team. During Mr. Trump’s arraignment in Miami in June, Mr. Smith sat in the gallery, closely watching the proceedings. Some in the courtroom suggested he stared at Mr. Trump for much of the hearing, sizing him up.

Persons: General Merrick B, Garland, Jack Smith’s, Donald J, Trump, Smith, Maddie McGarvey, The New York Times “, ”, Ryan Goodman, Trump’s, Robert S, Mueller, Smith —, —, Goodman, Smith “, Edgar Hoover, Mueller III, Anna Moneymaker, Ted Stevens, “, Robert McDonnell, Rick Renzi, James, Smith’s, Jay I, Bratt, Cooney, Robert Menendez, Greg Craig, Obama, Andrew G, McCabe, Roger J, Stone Jr, William P, Barr, Aaron Zelinsky, Thomas P, Windom, Peter Dejong Mr, John H ., Carlos F, legwork, sotto, intently, Alan Feuer Organizations: White, The New York Times, New York University School of Law, Capitol, Washington, Department, Just Security, Trump, U.S, New York Times, Justice Department, Justice, Republican, Supreme, Mr, Department of Justice, Democrats, Robert Menendez of New, Hague, Credit, House Republicans, U.S . Postal Inspection Service Locations: Washington, The Hague, Russia, Alaska, Virginia, Arizona, Robert Menendez of, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, U.S, Netherlands, John H . Durham, ’, Miami

Even though Democrats held off a widely expected red wave in the 2022 midterm elections, Republican turnout was in fact stronger, and the party energized key demographic groups including women, Latinos and rural voters, according to a report released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center. The report serves as a warning sign for Democrats ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with early polls pointing toward a possible rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. People who had voted in past elections but sat out 2022 were overwhelmingly Democrats. And for all the Democratic emphasis on finding Republican voters who could be persuaded to buck their party in the Trump era, Pew found that a vast majority of voters stuck with the same party through the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections. Just 6 percent of voters cast ballots for more than one party over those three elections — and those voters were more likely to be Democrats flipping to Republican candidates than Republicans to Democratic candidates.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Pew Organizations: Republican, Pew Research Center, Pew, Democratic, Republicans

The case, though framed as clash between free speech and gay rights, was the latest in a series of decisions in favor of religious people and groups, notably conservative Christians. A Colorado law forbids discrimination against gay people by businesses open to the public as well as statements announcing such discrimination. But when the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, 303 Creative L.L.C. He was the author of every major Supreme Court decision protecting gay rights under the Constitution. But he was also the court’s most ardent defender of free speech.

Persons: Neil M, Gorsuch, Lorie Smith, Smith, Smith’s, Mary Beck Briscoe, Judge Briscoe, “, ” Judge Briscoe, Timothy M, Tymkovich, George Orwell, ’ ”, ”, Anthony M, Kennedy, Justice Kennedy, Jack Phillips, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Brett M, Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett Organizations: Supreme, U.S ., Appeals, Circuit, Colorado Civil Rights Commission Locations: Colorado, Denver, “ Colorado

☆ Views on affirmative action are split along racial and political lines.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But a close look at recent polling on the issue shows that attitudes about affirmative action differ based on whom you ask — and how you ask about it. Most respondents who disapproved of affirmative action said the policy made the admissions process less fair overall, and a narrow majority said it would result in less-qualified students being accepted. Affirmative action supporters, by contrast, largely said it ensured equal opportunity and improved students’ educational experiences. A majority of Asian Democrats who had heard of affirmative action said it was a good thing, while Asian Republicans were more likely to say it was a bad thing. Asian Republicans with a postgraduate degree were nearly twice as likely to disapprove of affirmative action than those with a high school diploma or less.

Organizations: Pew Research Center, Pew, Black, Democrats, Republicans

☆ Ron DeSantis Is Young, Has Little Kids and Wants America to Know It
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Nicholas Nehamas | Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

As top-tier presidential candidates go, Ron DeSantis is something of a rarity these days. He was born after the Vietnam War, he came of age when computers were common in American homes and he still has young children of his own, rather than enough grandchildren to fill a basketball team. Mr. DeSantis would be 46 on Inauguration Day if elected, younger than every president since John F. Kennedy. It’s a fact he doesn’t state explicitly, but his campaign has set out to make sure voters get it. He and his wife, Casey DeSantis, often speak about their young children, who are 6, 5 and 3 and have joined their parents on the campaign trail.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, John F, Kennedy, It’s, Casey DeSantis, — Organizations: White Locations: Vietnam, Florida

☆ Abortion Pills, the Latest Battleground, Have Been Little Known to Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Ruth Igielnik | Andrew Fischer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Abortion pills have dominated headlines in the past week, but until recently, relatively few Americans were familiar with the concept of medication abortions, even as the use of pills like mifepristone has surpassed surgical procedures as the most common method to terminate pregnancies and as national support for abortion rights has grown in recent years. Two conflicting rulings on mifepristone, the first pill in a two-drug regimen used to terminate pregnancy, have put the long-term availability of the medication in limbo. The Justice Department has asked the Supreme Court to step in and ensure the drug’s accessibility while it pursues an appeal. About one in three Americans said they had heard of mifepristone or a medication abortion in a January survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan research group that focuses on health issues. But that share is most likely growing, Ashley Kirzinger, the organization’s director of survey methodology, said.

We’re tracking the remaining uncalled House races — and showing when they are called — as states continue to count the outstanding votes from the midterm elections. The tallies below are based on the reported vote so far, and the margin in many races will continue to change as more ballots are counted in the coming days.

Tracking the most competitive statesEach party needs to win a share of the most competitive races for Senate control. The win targets below are based on what each party needs for control after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily. Alaska is expected to be won by one of the two Republicans leading the vote count in that state.

Tracking the most competitive districtsEach party needs to win a share of the most competitive districts for House control. The win targets below are based on what each party needs for control after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily. There is one race in a district rated competitive prior to the election that has not yet been called.

Live forecast: Estimating the outcomeThis is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. See the full forecast ›

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