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The bank cited still-strong growth and tight labor markets as the reason for the latest increase. But it eliminated the forward guidance it has used since it began cranking rates higher in March, dropping language that said they would have to rise further. Money markets had bet on a 25-basis-point increase, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expected a 50-bps move. Overall, however, the central bank said that data supported its October forecast that growth would stall through the middle of next year. Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto, Editing by Sandra Maler, Kirsten Donovan and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada set to hike rates, may signal it is near end of tightening cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"It's a close call but we're expecting a 50-basis-point rate hike from the Bank of Canada," Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. In October, the Bank of Canada forecast that economic growth would stall from the fourth quarter this year through the middle of next year. "Whether or not the Bank of Canada raises rates 25 or 50 basis points, there's a separate question about whether the Bank of Canada can or should really be committing to raise rates further in 2023," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. The bank has been providing forward guidance that it "expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further" since it began this tightening cycle. "At some point, the Bank of Canada is going to be in a position where it's appropriate to just let rates be for a while," Mendes said.

Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%, Statistics Canada said. Analysts had forecast the jobless rate would tick up to 5.3%. The November report follows a monster gain of 108,300 jobs in October and comes just days ahead of a Bank of Canada policy-setting meeting on Wednesday. The central bank has raised rates by 350 basis points since March, one of its steepest tightening cycles ever. The small jobs gain was entirely for full-time work and mostly in the services sector, while the participation rate edged down to 64.8% from 64.9% in October.

☆ Bank of Canada focus on more timely inflation data lowers overshoot risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation tends to be reported on a year-over-year basis to smooth out fluctuations that occur in shorter-term measures. Some forecasters expect Canada's economy to dip into recession next year along with a downturn in global activity. Twelve-month rates include price growth that occurred much earlier in the year, economists explain. Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices into slower-moving items, such as wages and services. Still, the BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of tightening to more normal steps of 25 basis points.

☆ Canadian dollar forecasts cut as BoC trails Fed on peak-rate bets - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The currency has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus 1.30 expected in last month's poll. "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates, from the BoC in the coming months of 4.25%. "We see less interest in investing money back into the ground in the oil patch when oil prices are high and so there's less room (for the currency) to fall when oil prices are low."

☆ Canada recession may be ‘necessary evil’ as central bank queues big hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThat may be just what the central bank is looking for, said analysts. Inflation in Canada edged down to 6.9% in September, below June's peak of 8.1%, though still well above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. A majority of Canadian firms, meanwhile, think a recession is now likely in the next 12 months, a Bank of Canada survey showed this week. This means the central bank will not start cutting rates until inflation is "within shouting distance" of the 1-3% control range, he said. "I don't think they necessarily are aiming for a recession," said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities.

OTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Business sentiment has softened in Canada and most firms now think a recession is likely, a Bank of Canada survey showed on Monday, but inflation expectations remain high, leaving the central bank little choice but to continue raising rates. The bank's Business Outlook Survey showed 77% of firms see price growth staying above 3% for the next two years. A separate survey showed near-term consumer inflation expectations at record highs, though longer term expectations have eased, providing some relief. "Still-high expectations for inflation will keep the Bank of Canada in rate hike mode," said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a note. That is cause for concern for the central bank as it seeks to avoid a wage-price spiral, analysts said.

☆ Canada's economy unexpectedly grows in July, though momentum slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Canadian economy grew 0.1% in July, compared with analysts' forecast for a 0.1% decline, Statistics Canada data showed. Growth in goods-producing industries more than offset the first decrease in services-producing industries since January. "After a solid first half of the year, momentum appears to be slowing as multi-decade-high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates weigh on the economy," Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Economics, said in a note. Hot inflation means the Bank of Canada will likely hike interest rates at its next decision in late October, but then the game may change, economists said. "The deceleration in economic momentum is why we see the Bank of Canada only hiking rates once more in October," Mendes said.

☆ Analysis: Loonie bulls reel as Bank of Canada trails Fed on terminal rate bets
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly called a "loonie," and an American dollar bill are seen in this staged photo in Toronto, March 17, 2010. ,A lower terminal rate for the BoC than the Fed is not uncommon, but it threatens to pour cold water on Canadian dollar bulls' expectations that interest rate differentials would help underpin the currency over the coming year. The Canadian dollar has weakened 7.5% against the greenback since the start of the year. Canada's housing market has slowed rapidly in recent months, while its share of the economy, at 9%, is nearly twice that of the U.S. housing market. "Canada's economy is simply more interest rate sensitive than the U.S. economy," said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.

OTTAWA, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Inflation in Canada remains "too high" but is headed in the right direction, a Bank of Canada official said on Tuesday, adding that the central bank will do whatever is needed to bring price increases back to target. While we're headed in the right direction, that's still too high," Beaudry said in prepared remarks provided ahead of the speech. While some have argued policymakers need to engineer a recession to avoid this, Beaudry said the bank is working to convince Canadians the current period of high inflation is temporary and it will tame surging prices. Still, economists said if consumer and business surveys due out next month show inflation has become more entrenched, the Bank of Canada may have to change its tune. The Bank of Canada has boosted its policy rate by 300-basis points in six months and earlier this month signaled it was not yet done.

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