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Destruction near the village of Robotyne, in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, late last month. For their part, Ukrainian military officials refrained from making any sweeping claims. Ukrainians forces enjoyed surprising successes earlier in the war by holding Kyiv, the capital, and repelling Russian forces at the end of March last year. The Ukrainian military aims to reclaim land in the south and east of the country. To reach that city, Ukrainian forces would have to fully break through the defenses around Verbove and then breach additional layers.
Persons: Oleksandr Shtupun, Daniel Berehulak, Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, Volodymyr Zelensky, Gen, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Zelensky Organizations: Ukrainian Army, Black Bird Group, The New York Times, Presidential Press Service, Russian Locations: Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Verbove, Russian, Moscow, Kyiv, Dmytrivka, Azov, Melitopol, Crimea, Tokmak, Bakhmut, Donetsk
Russia has sent elements of an elite paratrooper division to the south of Ukraine, reports say. Ukraine recently sent its powerhouse 82nd Air Assault Brigade into battle in Robotyne, which helped it achieve its breakthrough, per Forbes. Using the 76th in the south suggests Russia lacks reserves, experts sayElements of Russia's elite 76th Guard Air Assault Division have been deployed in key parts of Ukraine throughout the conflict. Russia's decision to redeploy elements of these units to the south suggests that Russian forces lack sizable operational reserves, the ISW said. The units sent to Robotyne appear to have been moved from the Kremmina area in eastern Ukraine, ISW noted.
Persons: Rob Lee, ISW Organizations: Analysts, Service, 76th Guard Air Assault Division, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Reuters, Air Assault Brigade, Forbes, Twitter Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia, Philadelphia, Azov
The Russian military has spent months digging in and fortifying its positions in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian marines during combined exercises with Ukraine's military near Sevastopol in May 2011. "In many cases when they counterattack, this is fundamentally a battle of tree lines," Lee said of Ukraine's advance. "If Ukrainian forces advance and take a tree line, Russian armor moves out and begins to engage that entire tree line at the range of a couple of kilometers. Russian "units are fighting," Lee said.
Persons: Rob Lee, Lee, they've, Stringer Russia, Wojciech Grzedzinski, Putin, Ukraine didn't, we've, They're, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Russian Army, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Storm, REUTERS, Naval, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Kharkiv, Defense, Foreign Policy, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russian, Sevastopol, Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian, Kharkiv, Forbes
Ukraine's opening move in the counteroffensive was unsuccessful, experts just back from a trip there assert. Part of the problem is that it relied on newer, less experienced units that made mistakes at a critical moment. That does not "mean that the offensive has failed," he said, adding important context to his assessment of the first round. And that assessment is supported by Lee's account of Ukrainian assault forces advancing against Russian defenses without suppressing artillery fire. Combined arms warfare is not something most countries do effectively, and Ukraine lacks both equipment and experience with this kind of fighting.
Persons: Rob Lee, Lee, Dmytro Smolienko, Michael Kofman, Franz, Stefan Gady Organizations: Service, Foreign Policy Research Institute, NATO, Publishing, Getty, Artillery, Center for Naval, Center for New American Security Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia
A dog named BradleyThe armored fighting vehicles are so admired by Ukrainian soldiers that running around Kach’s team’s camp barking is “Bradley” – the brigade press officer’s 6-month-old rescue puppy. Russian artillery started to pick off the vehicles sent out to de-mine the area. The 47th ran into trouble very quickly trying to pierce the Russian line in their newly acquired armor. Outside loud booms from Ukrainian artillery cannons sweep across the heavily damaged and now largely empty town. They have more guns, they have more shells and they have more people so we must counter that with our … professionalism.”These days, that means the slow grind of the exposed troops fighting from trench to trench, assaulting tree line to tree line under heavy fire.
Persons: Ukraine CNN —, , , Kach, Bradley, “ Bradley ” –, Seb Shukla, “ It’s, Rob Lee, ” Lee, Tral, Stanislav, ” Stanislav Organizations: Ukraine CNN, Bradley, CNN, 47th Mechanized Brigade, US, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, Russia, Kharkiv, American, Germany, Kach’s, Crimea, Donbas, Azov, German, , Russian
Kyiv, Ukraine CNN —Despite an underwhelming first month of Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer push to liberate territory from Russian forces, Kyiv says its Western backers are not pressuring the country for quick results. Ukraine had hoped to use the push to expel a significant amount of Russian forces from Ukrainian soil and turn the tide of the war. Asked by CNN if Ukraine’s western allies were looking for quicker gains on the battlefield, Yermak said there was no such pressure from partner countries. Ukrainian Army spokesman Serhiy Cherevatyi said on Ukrainian television that Russian forces are putting up a “fierce resistance,” but Ukraine has the initiative. In his comments Saturday morning, southern command head Tarnavsky told Ukrainian TV viewers that nine Russian ammunition depots had been destroyed in the last day.
Persons: Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelensky, Yermak, Serhiy Cherevatyi, , Daniel Carde, Kupiansk, Cherevatyi, , ” Lyman, ” Cherevatyi, Rob Lee, ” Lee, Alex Chan Tsz Yuk, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, Tarnavsky Organizations: Ukraine CNN, NATO, CNN, United, Army Tactical Missile Systems, Bakhmut, Ukrainian, State, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Kremlin, Arms Army Locations: Kyiv, Ukraine, Ukraine’s, Russian, Ukrainian, Lithuania, United States, France, United Kingdom, Bakhmut, Berhivka, Vremivka, Lyman, Donetsk, Russia, Novoselivske, Crimean, Zaporizhzhia, Berdiansk
Ukrainian soldiers said their lives were saved by the US-supplied Bradley IFVs they were riding in. One soldier said that if they were in a Soviet carrier "we would all probably be dead after the first hit." The soldiers are part of Ukraine's 47th brigade, according to ABC News, which is fighting near Zaporizhzhia in southeastern Ukraine. The US has sent 109 Bradleys to Ukraine, and this month pledged to send 30 more. While Ukraine is getting modern weapons and ammunition from Western partners, many Ukrainian soldiers still have to rely on Soviet-era weaponry.
Persons: Bradley IFVs, Bradley, , Serhiy, Andriy, It's, Rob Lee, Hanna Maliar, Oryx, Bradleys, Pat Ryder, Insider's Chris Panella Organizations: Service, Bradley, Russian, ABC News, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Twitter, Russian Grad, US, Pentagon Press, Air Force Locations: Ukraine's, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Soviet, Russian
Some Russian military bloggers with substantial followings expect a serious reshuffle of the military in the light of the Wagner uprising, and perhaps within the security services for not seeing the preparations for it. Putin has sought to reassert his authority after Prigozhin's mutiny. There is no way to verify Rybar’s allegations, but their airing may demonstrate a level of apprehension in the Russian military in the light of the mutiny. At one point, according to Russian military bloggers, Surovikin interceded to try to procure ammunition for Wagner. There is still considerable respect in Russian military circles for what Wagner has contributed to the Ukraine conflict.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Wagner, Sergey Shoigu, Rybar, ” Rybar, Putin, Valery Gerasimov, Mikhail Teplinsky, Boris Rozhin, Sergey Surovikin, , Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, , Dmitry Peskov, Surovikin, Mark Galeotti, Galeotti, Tatiana Stayonova, Rob Lee, “ Wagner, ” Surovikin, Prigozhin, Vyacheslav Volodin, ” Volodin, Anastasia Kashevarova, Mikhail Tereshchenko, Stayonava, Shoigu, Yevgeny Prigozhin, George W Bush, Concord Company ”, we’ll, eking, Viktor Zolotov, ” Zolotov, ” Anastasia Kashevarova, Russia “, there’s Organizations: CNN, FSO, Federal Guard Service, Federal Protective Service, AP, General Staff, The New York Times, Mayak Intelligence, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Russian Aerospace Forces, Sputnik, Getty, Western Military, Concord Company, Kremlin, MoD, Defense Ministry, Russian National Guard, Ministry of Defense, Telegram Locations: Rostov, Moscow, Don, Russia, Ukraine, AFP, Bakhmut, Shoigu, Putin, St, Petersburg, Russian, Minsk, Belarus, Prigozhin
How is Ukraine’s counter-offensive going so far?
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Western equipment like battle tanks and armoured vehicles should help protect the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. "Ukraine's got choices," said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at International Institute for Strategic Studies. Those thrusts may indicate Ukraine's generals have their eye on Tokmak, an occupied town in Zaporizhzia region some 25 km from the front line. Military analysts saw it as unlikely this would become the focus of the main Ukrainian offensive. Images shared by Russian military bloggers showed destroyed or damaged U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks, headline items of military aid sent by the West for the counteroffensive.
Persons: Rob Lee, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's, Ben Barry, Lee, Konrad Muzyka, Hanna Maliar, Muzyka, Maliar, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Jack Watling, Tom Balmforth, Mark Trevelyan, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Western, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Reuters, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russian, West, Interior Ministry, Deputy, Troops, Military, Bradley, Leopards, Thomson Locations: Kyiv, KYIV, Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Moscow, Kherson, Kharkiv, Poland, Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Zaporizhzia, Melitopol, Velyka Novosilka, Bakhmut
Moscow's strategy in the south likely aims to maximise Ukrainian casualties before Kyiv can reach the main Russian line of defences about 10-15 km (6-9 miles) away, according to Lee. The main thrusts have come near the Kyiv-controlled town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia region and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk region, about 80 km to the east. "My main concern five or six days into this main phase is that the progress appears to have stopped. Military analysts saw it as unlikely this would become the focus of the main Ukrainian offensive. Images shared by Russian military bloggers showed destroyed or damaged U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks, headline items of military aid sent by the West for the counteroffensive.
Persons: Rob Lee, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's, Ben Barry, Lee, Konrad Muzyka, Hanna Maliar, Muzyka, Maliar, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Jack Watling, Tom Balmforth, Mark Trevelyan, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Western, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Reuters, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russian, West, Interior Ministry, Deputy, Troops, Military, Bradley, Leopards, Thomson Locations: Kyiv, KYIV, Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Moscow, Kherson, Kharkiv, Poland, Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Zaporizhzia, Melitopol, Velyka Novosilka, Bakhmut
Russian nationalists blamed military leaders after a shocking report said a large number of troops was killed. "We are at war with our own stupidity and sloppiness," a Russian blogger wrote. It wasn't clear if the latest casualties also included troops from the naval infantry that Akhmedov had led before commanding a Russian field army. Russian generals and colonels have previously been accused of incompetence that led to military disasters. A Ukrainian New Year's strike led to as many as 400 deaths and fueled outrage that Russian officers had bivouacked troops within range of the GPS-guided HIMARS rockets.
Persons: , Sergey Kolyasnikov, Rob Lee, Zurab Akhmedov, milbloggers, Akhmedov Organizations: Service, Armed Forces, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Defense Locations: Russian, Kreminna, Ukraine, Luhansk, Ukrainian
Ukraine has lost 16 US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, open-source analysis found. The losses are a sizeable chunk of the 109 Bradleys sent to Ukraine by the US. Dutch website Oryx, which tracks visual evidence of losses on both sides, documented five destroyed Bradleys and 11 that have been damaged and abandoned. The report on the Bradleys comes after Ukraine lost around half of its specially adapted Leopard 2R mine-clearing vehicles donated by Finland, as Forbes reported. The findings come as Ukraine reported retaking three settlements — Velyka Novosilke, Blahodatne, and Neskuchne in Donetsk region, as CNN reported.
Persons: , BMP2, Bradley, Rob Lee, Mala Tokmachka, Forbes, James, Spider, Marks Organizations: Bradley, Service, Institute for, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Twitter, Forbes, Oryx, CNN Locations: Ukraine, Ukraine —, Russia, Finland, Zaporizhzhia, Mala, Ukrainian, Neskuchne, Donetsk
Three senior U.S. officials, as well as military analysts, said that a long-awaited major Ukrainian counteroffensive appeared to be underway, after months spent mobilizing and training new units, and arming them with advanced Western weapons. A strong indication, they said, was the Ukrainians’ use in combat on Thursday of German Leopard tanks and American Bradley fighting vehicles. “Ukrainian forces have made some tactical gains and sustained losses.”The United States and other Ukrainian allies trained and equipped the nine brigades that were designed to lead Ukraine’s counteroffensive to recapture Russian-occupied land. Ukraine is widely expected to mount a multipronged assault along a front that arcs for hundreds of miles, focusing on a swath of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. Ukraine’s plans target specific areas to try to break through Russian lines, but can adjust to concentrate on those thrusts that prove most successful, U.S. officials said.
Persons: American Bradley, , Rob Lee Organizations: Kyiv, U.S, German Leopard, Foreign Policy Research Institute Locations: Zaporizhzhia, American, Ukraine, United States, Russian, Donetsk, U.S
A photo of the wreckage, posted by a Russia-backed official, resembles the Iranian Mohajer-6 drone. The wreckage closely resembles the wing of a Mohajer-6 drone, which Iran manufactures, and Russia uses in the war. "So-called 'head' of Crimea claimed yesterday that a 'Ukrainian army' drone was taken down in Crimea and posted a photo," he wrote. "It seems they took down their own Iranian Mohajer-6 drone. While the shape of the object appears to resemble that of a Mohajer-6 drone, Insider could not independently verify the authenticity of the video.
Persons: , Sergey Aksyonov, Aksyonov, Rob Lee, Anton Gerashchenko Organizations: Service, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Internal, Russia's Defense Ministry Locations: Russia, Ukrainian, Crimea, Iran
Russia has essentially captured the city of Bakhmut, but it paid a heavy price, exhausting its forces. The win in Bakhmut, which remains contested, is its first battlefield victory in almost a year. The win is likely Pyrrhic, and analysts say there's little Russia can do but wait for Ukraine's next move. Libkos/APUkrainian and Russian troops have been engaged in intense combat over Bakhmut for nearly a year now, and both sides have seen countless soldiers killed and wounded. ISW noted around the time of Russia's claimed victory over Bakhmut that "Russian forces will likely need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut City and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions."
The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was bombed in an apparent incendiary attack on Friday. Video shows the city ablaze with a bright glow, demonstrating Russia's "scorched earth" tactics. "The Kremlin or Prigozhin might have decided to resort to incendiary weapons as a last roll of the dice to force out Ukrainian troops." Videos circulated on social media early Friday, showing the Ukrainian city ablaze with a glow that prompted military analysts to suggest chemical weapons had been used. "The use of these horrific arms may violate the 1983 Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Incendiary Weapons.
A map shows all the locations in Russia, along its border with Ukraine, and in Russian-held Ukraine, where the American Enterprise Institute found any kind of fortification built by Russia. Four maps show when the fortifications built by Russian along its border with Ukraine and in Russia-held Ukraine were first spotted on satellite imagery. In December 2022 and January 2023, fortifications appeared inside Russian regions and more parts of occupied Ukraine. Russian forces have dug many such trenches along what they see as key roads and junctions, and outside strategic cities, Africk said. A zoomed-in map shows fortifications around several towns such as Tokmak, Bilmak and Mykhailivka, along plain terrain and along major roads in Russian-held Ukraine.
A video appears to show a Ukrainian tank firing on a Russian trench, backed by troops in an IFV. The drone footage, shared by Ukrainian forces, says the attack is in the town of Ivanivske. Russian forces are continuing attacks in eastern Ukraine as they try to seize the town of Bakhmut. In the video, a tank can be seen rolling up to the trenches through a barren landscape before firing several rounds. The tank then quickly reverses and moves away, at which point an infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) pulls up with Ukrainian troops inside.
Since production capacity changed after the Cold War, the US can no longer keep up with wartime demands. In fulfilling those promises, The New York Times reported the US has sent Ukraine so many stockpiled Stinger missiles that it would take 13 years of production at recent capacity levels to replace them. US officials in January proposed a production increase up to 90,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition each month to keep up with demand. The United States has rarely seen production shortages in ammunition and missiles to the degree the country currently faces. While improvements to production facilities have been budgeted for going forward, the US is currently pushing suppliers to capacity to meet current wartime demands in Ukraine and keep pace with China's production.
Days after Putin's dead-of-night trip in Ukraine, Zelenskyy visited troops near the front lines. State media followed the Russian President meeting with residents who told him the occupied, war-torn Ukrainian city is a "little piece of paradise." Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) visits a recently renovated theater in Mariupol. In the original video, Putin meets with local residents near a new apartment complex in the dead of night. Zelenskyy visits troops fighting on the front lines in BakhmutUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with troops near the front lines of Bakhmut.
Yet Russia and Ukraine are still battling for the small city of Bakhmut. After nearly eight months of trench warfare Ukrainian forces are surrounded on three sides, Kyiv's supply lines are fraying, and Moscow is in control of just under half of Bakhmut. Volodymr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's president, has portrayed "Fortress Bakhmut" as a symbol of defiance which is bleeding the Russian military dry. It also claims to be decimating Ukrainian forces. A regional transport and logistics hub, Bakhmut would be useful for Russian forces although that depends on how much of its infrastructure is intact.
In the months after, artillery ammunition came, then Western artillery and vehicles. Ground-Launched Small Diameter BombAdd a description of the graphic for screen readers. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. Although it uses a NATO-standard calibre for its main gun--120mm--the Challenger 2's barrel is rifled, unlike the smoothbore weapons used in other Western tanks. Air defense Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, including power plants and residential buildings, have come under increasing attack from Russian missiles and one-way drones, often launched from outside Ukraine's territory.
By September, the tally of lost and captured Russian tanks reached 1,000 — more than all the tanks in the British, French, German, and Finnish militaries combined. The first time these British tanks found a fight, only 25 of the 49 of them actually moved when ordered to commence the attack. Nonetheless, before the conflict was over, Churchill himself would decide tanks had, once again, run their course, declaring, "we have too much armor — tanks are finished." And that is the real lesson we can glean from the performance of Russian tanks in Ukraine over the past year. Maxim Shemetov/ReutersThis point becomes evident when you look at Russian tank losses recorded by the Oryx Blog between February and April 2022, when Russian tank losses were at their absolute worst.
The US is again warning China not provide military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russia's military has structural problems that foreign gear can't fix, a retired US general says. While lower-level Russian units have been able to adapt, "I think the big problem in the Russian military is that the culture is not very conducive to" learning, added Lee, an expert on Russia's military. Russian military leadership failings and inability to perform under fire will limit the utility of whatever hardware Beijing may provide, Breedlove said. While US officials have not specified what military support China may provide, there are signs Russia is using artillery ammunition more sparingly.
The US, UK, and Germany have agreed to provide their tanks to Ukraine, as have some other countries. Those tanks now join hundreds of other armored vehicles delivered or promised to Kyiv. The 31 Abrams tanks the US will send to Ukraine likely won't arrive for months or longer, but the US and European countries have already committed to sending Ukraine several different types of armored vehicles. (On Wednesday, US officials said M88 recovery vehicles would be delivered with the Abrams tanks.) The US and Germany have agreed to send M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
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