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☆ Dow, S&P edge up as data, debt ceiling curb gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 47.98 points, or 0.14%, to 33,348.6, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.2 points, or 0.30%, to 4,136.28 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 80.47 points, or 0.66%, to 12,365.21. Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) climbed 2.16% as one of the top boosts to both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Loop Capital upgraded it to "buy" from "hold." Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIn a relatively light week for economic data, investors will focus on retail sales, weekly jobless claims and housing data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 136 new lows.

Barkin said he remained open-minded on whether the Fed at its June 13-14 policy meeting should raise the benchmark policy rate for an 11th straight time or leave it at the current range between 5.00% and 5.25%. I do wonder whether we're not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go," Barkin said, laying out a potential case for further rate increases. Barkin said he is comfortable overall with the Fed's move earlier this month to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach after having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022 in an effort to lower the highest inflation in 40 years. "I'm still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation," he said. "I continue to believe that inflation will last longer than perhaps market measures of inflation compensation would suggest.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he could see rates at 5.5%-5.75%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he could envision a scenario where the central bank pushes the U.S. benchmark policy interest rate to the 5.5%-5.75% range that some in financial markets are now betting it will. Barkin said it's "entirely possible" that inflation cools faster than he expects, which would imply a shallower rate path. "But I think it's entirely possible that it persists, which would require us to do more," he added. By this time next year, Barkin said, he does not expect the Fed to have started any rate cuts. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie Adler and Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he doesn't see case for a rate pause now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he does not understand the case for pausing interest rates now, although delivering rate increases in smaller increments means that if the Fed does end up going too far it won't have gone much too far. Rates are currently restrictive, meaning that they are slowing the economy, but the Fed still needs to "feel" its way to a level of rates that is high enough to bring inflation back down, Barkin said at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin calls for deliberate rate hikes to fight 'exhausting' inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Policymakers have forecast "additional rate increases" and have been clear "we don’t anticipate rate cuts this year," he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred year-over-year gauge was 5.4% in January, an increase from the 5.3% pace in December. The Fed's target is 2% inflation. Barkin said he is not sure that the strength in spending that bolstered inflation is sustainable. That's putting some upward pressure on inflation, he said, as workers ask for more pay.

While the Fed settled for a quarter-percentage-point rise, it also said "ongoing increases" would push the policy rate as high as needed. Recent data also showed inflation continuing to slow, though by less than expected. Today's 4.5%-4.75% policy rate is its highest since the eve of the housing crisis in 2007. "I don't see that indicating to me that we're slowing the economy," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said of recent data, including strong retail sales and job growth. Richmond Fed's Barkin, by contrast, said he took little "signal" from recent data, anticipating inflation would continue falling.

☆ Morning Bid: Elusive peaks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Unlike much of last year, the rates market is now inclined to believe the central bank on the direction of travel. And implied year-end rates are as high as 5.12% - almost half a point higher than where the current rate sits. Two-year Treasury yields hit a three-month high at 4.72% on Friday, with 10-year yields at 3-month peaks too - homing in on 4% for the first time since November. So as impressive as this week's stock market resilience had been to the new inflation and rates environment, it appears to be buckling again already. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* U.S. Jan import and export prices, leading indicator.

☆ Morning bid: Cloudy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And deep in the weeds of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings season, Microsoft's (MSFT.O) overnight rollercoaster probably defines the uncertainty. Microsoft stock surged almost 5% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after its bottom line beat the Street consensus. The mixed earnings picture dampened early week enthusiasm surrounding tech stocks and chipmakers. The chance it may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift interest rates again boosted the Aussie dollar. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:* Bank of Canada policy decision.

☆ Gold slips as dollar gains momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold will bounce around $1,900 level in near term - analystBarrick set to report highest quarterly gold output for 2022Jan 18 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar firmed, while expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes limited the losses. A stronger dollar tends to make gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. If the narrative continues to be that inflation is cooling and interest rates will come down, then it will be bullish for gold." FEDWATCHLower interest rates tend to be beneficial for bullion, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. On the physical front, Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) reported on Tuesday a 13.4% sequential rise in gold production in what could be its highest quarterly output last year.

☆ Stocks rise, dollar stumbles after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. U.S consumer prices fell in December for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years as prices fell for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation was on a sustained downward trend. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a signal of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% and then rebounding. Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Stocks climb, dollar falls after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin echoed the sentiment about the data and said it allowed the Fed to "steer more deliberately". Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ The Investing Club's top 5 things to watch in the market Wednesday: Equities, oil, China
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Club's top 5 things to watch Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2022 1. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Stock futures are flat as investors look to new year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders Gregory Rowe (R) and Peter Tuchman work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) ahead of the closing bell, June 21, 2019 in New York City. Stock futures are near flat Tuesday evening as traders look to the end of a losing year and prepare for 2023. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 11 points, trading near flat. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were also both near flat. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track to lose 8.5% and 19.7%, respectively.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.13% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.09%. "It's going to be a busy second half of the week with all the data points we're expecting. Oil prices climbed on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls, which had fueled demand concerns. Gold prices rose with help from the dollar's retreat and hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes going forward.

The Euro STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.4%, recovering from its worst session in almost two weeks a day earlier. Shares in London (.FTSE) were up 0.8% and markets in Paris (.FCHI) and Frankfurt (.GDAXI) gained around 0.2%-0.3%. Hopes of faster easing of China's strict restrictions rose after an official said they will continue to fine-tune policy to reduce the impact of its "Zero COVID" on society. The sudden bout of optimism on China combined with talk of possible output cuts by OPEC+ to help oil prices rally. Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms.

☆ Asia shares take comfort in China property rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms. read moreThat helped Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) bounce 1.1%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.7%. Markets were still nervous that the widening web of restrictions in China would lead to more public unrest and further undermine growth. read more"The zero China COVID policy has been an absolute gut punch to Apple's supply chain," said Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush. The dollar index rallied to 106.57 , having been as low as 105.31 overnight.

☆ Morning Bid: Congress unswept, crypto a mess
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Incumbent Democrats enjoyed a stronger-than-expected showing, with a chance of retaining the Senate, limiting expected losses in the House of Representatives and taking important governors' races. Regardless of the poll results, problems in the crypto world deepened amid fears of widespread contagion and selling following the near collapse of a major exchange on Tuesday. Perhaps partly related to the crypto shakeout, shares in Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped as much as 5% on Tuesday after filings showed owner Elon Musk sold almost $4 billion Tesla shares before his Twitter takeover. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Barkin: U.S. likely on "back end" of inflation surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. is likely at the "back end" of the current inflation surge though it remained unclear how long it may take the rate of price increases to decline to the Fed's 2% target, Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. “My personal hypothesis is that we are on the back end” of the surge that has pushed consumer price increases to a 40-year high, Barkin said. How high the Fed needs to raise interest rates to fix the problem is "highly related to how malleable you think inflation is going to be" to things like improvements in supply chains or other factors, Barkin said, "That is a question we are trying to figure out." Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin sees 'potentially a higher end point' for rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin on Friday said he is ready to act more "deliberatively" on consideration of the pace of future U.S. interest rate hikes, but said rates could continue rising for longer and to a higher end point than previously expected. And I think the implication of that is probably a slower rate of pace of rate increases, a longer pace of rate increases and potentially a higher end point," Barkin said in the interview. "The labor market remains tight, and you can point to the unemployment rate. You can point to wages," Barkin said. "I do think the labor market remains tight and that means there's still more work to do."

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