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Home Depot reported its biggest revenue miss in more than 20 years and lowered its forecast for this year, as consumers delay big projects and buy fewer big-ticket items like patio sets and grills. The company said it now expects sales and comparable sales to decline between 2% and 5% for the fiscal year. Yet he said the anticipated pullback has been compounded by rising mortgage rates and a shift toward spending on services. It marked the second quarter in a row that Home Depot missed Wall Street's revenue expectations. Home Depot in the quarter sold fewer pricier discretionary items, such as new appliances, McPhail said.
Robyn Beck | AFP | Getty ImagesHome Depot and Target may sell very different kinds of merchandise. But the home improvement retailer's slashed forecast could be seen as a warning sign for the cheap chic retailer. On the other hand, Target, Walmart and other retailers that report in the coming weeks draw from a more representative pool of Americans. Discretionary spending fell year over year in the U.S., according to data from Circana, a market researcher formerly known as The NPD Group and IRI. Plus, Home Depot has some sector-specific advantages — even as mortgage rates rise — that could insulate it from some of the effects of lower discretionary spending.
Shoppers are pulling back at Home Depot
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
New York CNN —Consumers are taking on smaller home improvement projects as higher interest rates and inflation take their toll. Home Depot (HD) said Tuesday that sales fell 4.5% at stores open at least a year during its latest quarter, and its income decreased 6.4% from the same stretch a year ago. It expects sales to decline between 2% and 5% in 2023 from a year prior. Home Depot said 2023 would be a “year of moderation” for the home improvement market, and sales for the quarter were below its expectations. “The state of the homeowner is that they’re very healthy,” Home Depot chief financial officer Richard McPhail said in an interview with CNBC.
Home Depot cuts annual sales forecast on slowing demand
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Shares of the largest U.S. home improvement chain tumbled about 4% in premarket trading after the company also missed first-quarter sales estimates, hit by adverse weather and falling lumber prices. The company now expects comparable sales to decline between 2% and 5% in fiscal 2023, compared to its prior outlook for sales to remain nearly flat. Analysts were expecting comparable sales to decline 0.9% this year, according to Refinitiv IBES data. The company forecast earnings per share to decline between 7% and 13%, compared to prior expectations for a mid-single digits decline. Home Depot's first-quarter comparable sales decreased 4.5%, missing estimates of a 1.74% drop.
Home Depot says the $1 billion boost to worker pay that it announced earlier this year is already yielding results. The move has led to better staffing, which has improved customer satisfaction and worker safety, the company told investors. In spite of a gloomy financial forecast, the company says the investment in employees is locked in. Campbell said the wage boost has enabled Home Depot to hire top-tier workers across the US — and keep them for longer, even as labor turnover remains high in the retail industry. If you are a Home Depot worker who wants to share your perspective, please contact Dominick via email or Signal 646.768.4750.
Recent consumer sentiment reports have been poor, so it's reasonable to assume the consumer spending backdrop has softened. The company is cutting guidance due to the weaker lumber prices, weather and is also citing "further softening of demand relative to our expectations, and continued uncertainty regarding consumer demand." If we are on the side of the American consumer (I am), then lower lumber prices are good, right? Running shoes are hot. Second case in point: On Holding (ONON), which makes the trendy ON running shoes, is up 94% YTD.
"We are confident we can make the investments needed to remain competitive in a tight labor market while also growing our profitability." "The [home improvement] environment seems to be weakening, not accelerating, and therefore incremental wage investments at this time would open the door to more questions and surprise. "They're behaving as they should given the tight labor market, showing leadership and not just thinking about a 12-month timeframe. And in a tight labor market, it's getting increasingly difficult to keep talent [if] you pay unlivable wages and [offer] few opportunities for growth and success." It's hard to say when, and if, Home Depot will see a demonstrable return on the monumental expenditure for its frontline workers.
Home Depot warned the boom may be over as higher prices and borrowing costs squeeze consumers. Here's a closer look at the US home improvement boom, and why Home Depot warned this week it might be over. Why might the home improvement boom be over? The upshot is that consumers are spending less on goods, battling rising prices and borrowing costs, and feeling less wealthy. Against that challenging backdrop, Home Depot warned on Tuesday that it anticipates flat sales and a 5% drop in diluted earnings per share.
Home Depot misses on revenue, issues muted outlook
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Gabrielle Fonrouge | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Home Depot's revenue fell short of Wall Street's estimates in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report Tuesday. The company also provided a muted outlook for the next year amid a tough consumer backdrop. In the quarter ended Jan. 29, Home Depot reported $35.83 billion in sales, up 0.3% from the year ago period, which saw $35.72 billion in revenue. Home Depot said it expects sales and comparable sales to be approximately flat for the new fiscal year. The retailer issued the muted outlook because it expects some pressure in the goods sector and flat consumer spending, McPhail said.
If you want to know how this year may be for the retail industry, look no further than Walmart 's cautious outlook. At Walmart, that means shoppers are buying more necessities like groceries and lightbulbs rather than big-ticket items or discretionary items like electronics and home decor. At Home Depot, it could mean customers may delay a home project or opt for cheaper floor tiles or kitchen appliances. Home Depot Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said the higher prices of groceries and more are influencing customers' decisions. "We've seen an increasing degree of price sensitivity as the year's gone on, which is actually sort of what we predicted in the face of persistent inflation," McPhail told CNBC.
Walmart and Home Depot warned that sales growth is likely to slow as shoppers look to save money. Between inflation, rising interest rates, layoffs, and other uncertainties, the stresses on household bank accounts are mounting, which could spell trouble as consumer spending represents roughly 70% of the US economy. "Prices are still high, and there is considerable pressure on the consumer," Walmart CFO John Rainey said. In Home Depot's case, CFO Richard McPhail told analysts: "We've assumed, like many economists, that we will see flat, real economic growth and consumer spending in 2023." We don't know what happens to consumer spending.
The soft landing is still alive, but so is inflation Watching the stock market from Yucatan last week, it was pretty clear that firmer inflation numbers from the consumer price index and producer price index meant the glidepath to lower inflation will likely be bumpier than the bulls have been hoping for. The problem is clear: We have to figure out the glidepath of the inflation decline. We'll get more inflation data this week with the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The good news is that other economic data indicates that the economy is very strong, particularly on the jobs front . The problem is a lack of bounce in growth stocks: Technology is expected to be flat in 2023, with only a modest 8.7% bounce in communication services earnings expected.
Suzanne Kreiter | The Boston Globe | Getty ImagesWith rising mortgage rates, homeowners are staying in place. By the end of the first quarter of this year, before the steep runup in mortgage rates caused the housing market to falter, homeowners had a collective $11 trillion dollars in so-called tappable equity, according to Black Knight. That equity is part of a three-pronged driver of home improvement, according to the CEO of Lowe's, Marvin Ellison. "The growth rate for improvement spending will slow due to declines for existing home sales," said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. "However, an aging housing stock, work from home trends and a decline for household mobility all favor remodeling spending."
Now for the bad news: Home Depot lost customers again. The DIY leader said in its third quarter earnings report that the number of customer transactions fell more than 4% from a year ago. Home Depot noted that the average customer ticket was nearly $90, up about 9% from a year ago. “Home Depot is not immune to a tightening economy,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, said in a report. “Moving into 2023, the picture becomes more complicated and much depends on the trajectory of the economy,” Saunders said.
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