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The education gap grows“The biggest single, best predictor of how someone’s going to vote in American politics now is education level. The real swing votersTo the extent that traditional swing voters are persuadable in this election, Sosnik argued they might be people like political independents or Nikki Haley Republicans. But there’s a second group of swing voters Sosnik argued is even more important. For Trump, these are non-college-educated White voters in general, particularly men, who “if they vote, you know they’re going to vote for Trump,” he said. Young voters, who are less reliable to cast ballots, also fall into this second type of swing voters, Sosnik said.
Persons: Roe, Wade, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton’s, ” Sosnik, David Chalian, Sosnik, , “ that’s, , Louis, Joe Biden, Trump, Harris, Nikki Haley Republicans, there’s, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN —, Rural, Democrats, Democratic, CNN, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Federal Reserve Bank of St, White, Lumina, Trump, Young, “ Republicans, Republican Locations: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Utah
Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China
After the latest blast of consumer inflation data, traders are facing a conundrum around how they should interpret the monthly numbers. September's consumer price index report topped the Street's expectations, rising 0.1% from the month prior and increasing at a pace of 2.4% over the past 12 months. Still, the annual inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Relative to expectations, September's CPI number does not imply a reacceleration of inflation. Rather, the rate of consumer inflation continues to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than some had hoped for.
Persons: Dow Jones, Nonfarm payrolls, Austan Goolsbee, Ron Insana Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Social Security, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CNBC Locations: U.S
Citi: 'no magic number' for RBI's FX reserves
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCiti: 'no magic number' for RBI's FX reservesCiti's chief India economist, Samiran Chakraborty clarifies how the Reserve Bank of India shores up its forex reserves, determined by India's balance of payments and capital inflows. He also discusses labor market data, noting that improving skills is a key focus for the Indian government's five-year term.
Persons: Samiran Chakraborty Organizations: Citi, RBI's FX, Reserve Bank of India Locations: India
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected, but tweaked its policy stance to "neutral," opening the door for rate cuts amid early signs of a growth slowdown in the economy. The Monetary Policy Committee, which consists of three RBI and three external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for a tenth straight policy meeting. The committee, however, changed its policy stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation." The MPC last changed rates in February 2023, when the policy rate was raised to 6.50%. India's overall growth slowed to 6.7% in the June quarter.
Organizations: Bank of, Global, Reserve Bank of India, Monetary, Committee, Reuters, MPC, PMI Locations: Bank of India, Mumbai, India
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRBNZ likely to cut rates by another 50 basis points at its next meeting: HSBC economistPaul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC, says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut rates further in 2025, reaching a policy rate of 3.25% by end-2025 or 3% by early 2026.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The New Zealand dollar slumped to its lowest since Aug. 19 at $0.6096, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week had predicted a big half a percentage point cut. The central bank kicked off an easing cycle in August seeking to trim rates from 15-year highs. The U.S. data calendar this week is relatively light, offering a breather after a strong jobs report on Friday sent the dollar jumping and markets repricing the expected scale of upcoming interest rate reductions. On Wednesday, investors will get minutes of the Fed's September meeting, which will show discussions about what at the time had appeared to be a deteriorating labor market that ended with all but one policymaker agreeing to a 50-basis point cut.
Organizations: New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: United States, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S
An aerial view shows the Central Bank of India building, in Mumbai, India, 28 September, 2022. (Photo by Niharika Kulkarni/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Asia-Pacific markets rebounded on Wednesday following a broad decline in the previous session and as Wall Street rallied overnight. Investors are focused on policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India. New Zealand's central bank is expected to slash its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%, while the RBI is expected to hold rates at 6.5%.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni Organizations: Central Bank of India, Getty Images, Wall Street, Investors, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of India Locations: Mumbai, India, Asia, Pacific, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's central bank is likely to pivot toward lower rates in the next few months, economist saysKrishna Bhimavarapu, Asia-Pacific economist at State Street Global Advisors, discusses the outlook for the Reserve Bank of India's approach to interest rates, saying it's in a "sweet spot."
Persons: Krishna Bhimavarapu Organizations: State Street Global Advisors, Reserve Bank of Locations: Asia, Pacific
A security guard stands in the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand located in central Wellington, New Zealand, July 3, 2017. New Zealand's central bank has slashed its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points after its monetary policy meeting, marking a second straight cut to its benchmark interest rate. The cut brings the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate to 4.75% from 5.25%. The central bank said at the time that the pace of further easing will depend on how confident it is about a low inflation environment. New Zealand's annual inflation rate hit 7.3% in the June quarter 2022, its highest level in over three decades.
Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, Reuters Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington , New Zealand, New
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures retreated 4.63% during U.S. trading hours Tuesday, halting the red-hot rally oil prices have experienced the past week. The central bank's likely to make another half-point cut in November, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, told CNBC. On the back of such turbulence, CNBC Pro asks two strategists whether now's the time to invest in China.
Persons: It's, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's Organizations: Central, CNBC, Technology, Nasdaq, Google, U.S . Department of Justice, U.S, The New York Times, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Reserve Bank of New, CSI, CNBC Pro Locations: New York, United States, Jerusalem, Israel, Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Australia, New Zealand, China
Foreign investors now hold 39% of Peru's sovereign bond market holdings, the highest level across all emerging market countries. This underscores the increasingly positive sentiment surrounding the Peru's fixed income outlook. "It has recognized the need to provide international investors positive returns on domestic assets, and for central banks to be aligned with international investors and provide positive returns on domestic assets." "In some sense, the lack of a strong executive has led to better fixed income outcomes," Austerweil added. Dhawan also underscored that Peruvian fixed income is a high quality market for foreign investors.
Persons: Moody's, Dina Boluarte's, Pramol Dhawan, Pimco, Dhawan, David Austerweil, Soberano, Austerweil Organizations: Southern Copper Corp, Lawmakers, Peruvian, International Monetary Fund, Central Reserve Bank of, Bank of America, Mining Locations: Peru, Sol, Central Reserve Bank of Peru, America, U.S, Peruvian, China
The dollar clung to seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors ponder the outlook for U.S. rates after a strong jobs report last week dashed bets for large rate cuts, while escalating tensions in Middle East dented risk sentiment. Traders have drastically shifted their monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve this year. That has kept the dollar on the front foot and surging to a multi-week high against the euro, sterling and the yen. The New Zealand dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.6144 ahead of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rate by 50 basis points.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Louis, Alberto Musalem, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asia FX, InTouch, Reserve Bank of St, Treasury, Bank of, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Middle East, Asia, China, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher. Spokespeople for General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo did not immediately respond to requests for comment. President Joe Biden has mentioned shrinkflation numerous times, declaring it a “rip-off” in a video he posted to X. Sarah Gallo, senior vice president of federal affairs at Consumer Brands Association, a trade group that Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and General Mills all belong to, defended industry practices to NBC News. Dean said the letters were sent to “ease the wrongful burden” the companies are imposing on consumers.
Persons: Sen, Elizabeth Warren of, Madeleine Dean of, Mills, General Mills, Jeff Harmening, James Quincey, , Ramon Laguarta, Spokespeople, Warren, Dean, ” Warren, ” Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Ting Shen, Joe Biden, Nailya Ordabayeva, , ” Ordabayeva, shrinkflation, Doritos, Sarah Gallo, ’ ” Dean Organizations: Democratic, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cola, PepsiCo, NBC, North, Retail, CNBC, Gatorade, Republican, Taxation, Economic, , NBC News, Bloomberg, Boston University Questrom School of Business, Consumer Brands Association, General, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: shrinkflation, Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Monday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 2% as investors look ahead to a week of central bank decisions from around the region. Three central banks are set to release their interest rate decisions this week, namely the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOK and RBNZ to cut rates, while the RBI will hold. The BOK on Friday is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate to 3.25% from 3.5%, while the RBNZ is expected to enact a 50-basis-point cut to 4.75% on Wednesday. Back in August, the RBNZ surprised economists after it lowered its policy rate to 5.25% from 5.5%.
Persons: BOK Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of India, Reuters Locations: Seoul . Asia, Pacific, Bank of Korea, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.
Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, , Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, , there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a "pattern of profiteering" through shrinkflation and by "dodging taxes." The same with PepsiCo, which "replaced its 32 oz Gatorade bottle with a 28 oz bottle for the same price." Spokespeople for General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo did not immediately respond to requests for comment. President Joe Biden has mentioned shrinkflation numerous times, declaring it a "rip-off" in a video he posted to X. Sarah Gallo, senior vice president of federal affairs at Consumer Brands Association, a trade group that Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and General Mills all belong to, defended industry practices to NBC News.
Persons: Sen, Elizabeth Warren of, Madeleine Dean of, Mills, General Mills, Jeff Harmening, James Quincey, Ramon Laguarta, Spokespeople, Warren, Dean, Joe Biden, Nailya Ordabayeva, Ordabayeva, shrinkflation, Doritos, Sarah Gallo Organizations: Democratic, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cola, PepsiCo, NBC, North, Retail, CNBC, Gatorade, Republican, Taxation, Economic, NBC News, Boston University Questrom School of Business, Consumer Brands Association, General, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Western sanctions have forced Russia to rely on the Chinese yuan for reserves and trade. China's financial system is deeply tied to the greenback, limiting diversification options. These include the entrenched role of the greenback in the global commodities trade and much larger foreign reserves than Russia, wrote Greene, a former senior advisor at the US Treasury. However, many CIPS participants are highly connected to the dollar financial system and potentially subject to the reach of US sanctions. The dollar is still kingIn short, China just can't copy Russia's sanctions-proofing playbook and is likely to continue orbiting around the dollar financial system in the near-term.
Persons: , China —, Robert Greene, Greene, China's, It's, dollarization, James Lord, Morgan Stanley's, Michael Zezas Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment Asia, US Treasury, Patomak Global Partners, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Locations: Russia, China, Beijing, Russia's, Ukraine
Between 1979 and 2024, productivity in the U.S. soared by 80.9%, while hourly pay grew by just 29.4%, according to research by the Economic Policy Institute. But more recently, some economists have suggested that deliberate policy decisions have actively suppressed workers' wage growth. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the natural rate of unemployment has hovered between 4.5% and 5.5% throughout history. But since 1979, the U.S. has spent far more time with actual unemployment well above that estimated natural rate. Watch the video above to find out how middle-class wages are being suppressed.
Persons: Josh Bivens Organizations: Economic, Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The average credit-card interest rate is now just over 21%, up from about 15% a decade ago. Additionally, as credit-card companies continue to charge high interest rates, more cardholders in debt become delinquent — and that could push the US economy closer to recession. Advertisement'The highest credit-card rates we've ever seen'Until 1978, most states had laws capping interest rates for credit cards and consumer products. Lowering the current high interest rates, and the profits that come with them, has become a priority across the aisle. Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, described the feedback loop of high prices and high interest rates as "a tough cycle to break."
Persons: Lana Linge, it's, Linge, isn't, Adam Rust, Bruce McClary, TransUnion, Austan Goolsbee, Rust, You've, you've, Antoinette Schoar, Schoar, David Silberman, GOP Sen, Josh Hawley, Hawley, Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Michele Raneri, Ranieri, Ted Rossman Organizations: Consumer Federation of America, Federal Reserve, National Foundation, Credit, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Louis Federal Reserve, Federal, Financial, MIT, Center for Responsible Lending, Lawmakers, GOP, Democratic, Reserve, TransUnion Locations: overspending, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, South Dakota, Delaware
Bankrate found the "most valuable" majors among 152 fields of study. Valuable majors were based on unemployment, salary, and people with advanced degrees. AdvertisementA new analysis of 152 majors found engineering degrees are valuable financially and in the labor market. Bankrate analyzed 2022 American Community Survey data to determine the "most valuable college majors." AdvertisementBelow are the majors that made the top 10 in Bankrate's ranking:The top nine most valuable majors had median salaries of at least $100,000.
Persons: Bankrate, , Alex Gailey, Gailey, grads Organizations: Service, Survey, Petroleum, Pew Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Bankrate's, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty ImagesAs she unveiled her most detailed economic plan yet this week, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris pledged to fight price gouging in order to rein in voters' grocery costs. Although Harris released more detail Wednesday as part of her 82-page economic plan, it's still unclear what price hikes her administration would see as illegal "price gouging." Generally, Republicans support fewer economic regulations, although Trump has suggested limiting food imports as a way to lower grocery prices. What is price gouging? Thirty-seven U.S. states already have laws that forbid price gouging in emergencies.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Doug Emhoff, Angela Weiss, Donald Trump, Harris, it's, Walz, Trump, YouGov, Rakeen Mabud, Mabud, Mario Tama, markups, , Jerome Powell —, Sarah Gallo, Brian Cornell, Jharonne Martis, Brandon Bell, Kroger, Arun Sundaram, Sundaram, JBS, Joe Raedle Organizations: Democratic, AFP, Getty, Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Voters, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Consumer Brands Association, Federal Trade, Department of, Kroger, Procter, Gamble, Albertsons, Federal Trade Commission, CFRA Research, Pilgrim's Pride Corporation Locations: Coraopolis , Pennsylvania, Los Angeles , California, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Houston , Texas, Miami , Florida
The conditions on the ground can vary widely across state and even county lines. The higher the index value, the higher the difficulty. A low index value, of 10 for example, suggests better purchasing conditions for a buyer — low interest rates, ample homes for sale. Chambers County, Texas, near Houston, is one of the 50 least difficult places to buy in in the country as of May, with low scores on scarcity, cost and competition. For July, the national Home Buyer Index was 85.3, nearly even with June and two points lower than it was this time one year ago.
Organizations: NBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chambers, U.S Locations: Chambers County , Texas, Houston, Coconino County , Arizona
Australia's inflation rate has come within the RBA's target range in the month of August, easing from 3.5% in July to 2.7%., according to a Wednesday release from the country's Bureau of Statistics. The drop puts the rate below the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2%-3% for the first time since August 2021. He said that while the relief programs will bring headline inflation to the top of the RBA's target range, the RBA will be "looking through" these subsidies and focusing on core inflation. He writes, "the path of core inflation back to the target range has stalled somewhat, and it is hard to see a major improvement in the near term. We think the bank will need to see three more inflation prints before they are comfortable embarking on an easing cycle."
Persons: Australia's, Michelle Bullock, Bullock, Sean Langcake, Langcake Organizations: Statistics, Reserve Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, ., Australia's Locations: SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA, Sydney, Australia, country's, Oxford
Yet, India's central bank appeared to dismiss the negativity earlier this month and reiterated its bullish view of India's growth rate, still expecting the economy to grow by 7.2%. However, when prompted on whether India's growth rate could compete with what China has already achieved for over two decades, the governor was less buoyant. But if you are looking at 10-plus growth, before I venture into that, I have to really do my homework much more," Governor Das said. This week, China's central bank, President Xi Jinping and other top leaders announced plans to boost the country's economy and attract investment. If India intends to grow as fast as China did, it may have to get a move on.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Shaktikanta Das, Das, Narendra Modi, he's, , Xi Jinping, David Tepper, he'd, Kaanhari Singh Organizations: Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Reserve Bank of India, CNBC, Bank, Appaloosa Management, Barclays Locations: Wall, India, China
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