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An Australian one dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this illustration photo taken February 12, 2016. The dollar hovered close to a three-month peak on Wednesday in a big week for macroeconomic data that could reveal the path for U.S. monetary policy. The Australian dollar edged closer to a three-month trough after some stickiness in inflation suggested a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is unlikely this year. The ADP employment report is due later in the day, ahead of the potentially crucial monthly payrolls report on Friday. "The U.S. dollar continues to garner strong support as markets adjust their rate path expectations," said James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera.
Persons: James Kniveton, Kniveton, Donald Trump, Rachel Reeves, Keir Starmer, Liz Truss Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Reserve Bank, Australia's, U.S, Treasury, Republican, European Central Bank, Sterling, Labor Locations: States, U.S, Australia, Europe
They argue that Casey, a middle-of-the-road liberal, had previously not been at the forefront of the populist economic turn in both parties. Casey’s Senate website dedicates an entire page to “greedflation,” which he also discussed at length in his speech at the Democratic National Convention this summer. The core of Casey’s argument is the assertion that, from July 2020 to July 2022, corporate profits rose five times faster than overall inflation. I would concede the economy has gotten better,” said McCormick, who has run an ad to counter Casey on the topic. “If you’re living paycheck to paycheck, you’re still in the grind, and that’s what I think Bob Casey and Kamala Harris do not understand.
Persons: Sen, Bob Casey, , Casey, “ greedflation, , Mike Mikus, ” Dave McCormick, I’m, they’re, they’ve, “ greedflation ”, Joe Biden, Kellogg’s, Clark, Proctor, McCormick, ” Sen, Raphael Warnock, Donald Trump, Maria Collett, greedflation ”, “ It’s, ‘ greedflation, Biden’s, Kamala Harris, Harris, pollsters, you’re Organizations: GOP, Democratic, Republican Senate, Federal Trade Commission, Senate, Gamble, Disney, Convention, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, NBC, San Francisco Federal Reserve, The Washington Post, Republican, NBC News, Republicans, ” “, Federal Reserve Locations: , Pennsylvania, Haverford Township, Kimberly, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, U.S
That’s helped push uncertainty among small business owners to an all-time high since the nearly 40-year inception of a monthly survey the National Federation of Independent Business conducts to gauge small business sentiment. The scale of firms whose investment plans are impacted by election uncertainty is “pretty remarkable” compared to prior elections, said Daniel Weitz, survey director at the Atlanta Fed. The Fed’s Beige Book, a quarterly collection of survey responses from businesses compiled by the 12 regional Fed banks published Wednesday, highlighted a wide range of businesses that are suffering because of election uncertainty. But the blowback that businesses are facing from the election uncertainty should subside once the policy path ahead becomes more clear, at which point we could start to see a rebound in hiring and capital investment businesses make, Meyer told CNN. The combination of these three major unknowns is shaping small business owners’ uncertain outlooks, said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, That’s, ” “, Duke, Daniel Weitz, , hesitancy, Brent Meyer, Harris, Meyer, that’s, They’re, Holly Wade, “ We’re, Wade Organizations: New, New York CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Reserve, Atlanta and Richmond Federal, Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Fortune, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Fed, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Trump, CNN, Federal Reserve, NFIB Research Locations: New York,
Earnings next week will be key to where stocks head from here. While roughly one-tenth of S & P 500 companies reported over the past week, about 20% of the broader index plans to report next week. He noted that the S & P 500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 , it's the first such streak going back to December 2023. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S & P 500 slightly outpaced the market-cap weighted benchmark this week, a bullish signal for sectors such as health care.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, FactSet's John Butters, Butters, it's, Tesla, Lockheed Martin, Russell, Nelson Yu, Harker Organizations: U.S, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Lockheed, GE Aerospace, Business Machines, General Motors, Verizon Communications, United Parcel Services, Southwest Airlines, Nvidia, Philadelphia Reserve, Chicago, PMI, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Locations: Independence, Philadelphia, . Kansas
Dollar hovers near 11-week high, eyes on China property briefing
  + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Ahead of the press conference, the offshore yuan was last 0.04% higher at 7.1328 per dollar. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, fell 0.02% to $0.6665, languishing near a one-month low hit in the previous session. "Keeping a very close eye on China, waiting for yet another press conference which is probably going to be long in rhetoric and short in detail," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank. In the broader market, the dollar was on the front foot, after having scaled an 11-week top against a basket of peers in the previous session. The dollar index was last steady at 103.51, having peaked at 103.60 in the previous session.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Sterling, Donald Trump, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Reserve, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Republican, FX, Macquarie, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Asia, China
Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury yields eased, while market participants waited for more U.S. economic data to determine the number of interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver in the near term. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,667.97 per ounce by 0217 GMT, $17 shy of a record high hit last month. The 10-year Treasury yields slipped for a third straight session, making zero-yield bullion more appealing. "The game changer in gold prices is the U.S. monetary policy easing as it sets the stage for investment demand," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. Delegates to the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering predicted gold prices would rise to $2,941 over the next 12 months and silver prices would jump to $45 per ounce.
Persons: Soni Kumari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: SA, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ANZ, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta Fed, London Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S, rearming
But they’re growing increasingly anxious about mounting credit card debt. Debt balances have been growing, and US consumers are nervous about whether they’ll be able to keep up: Americans haven’t been this worried about missing a minimum debt payment since April 2020. Outside of the pandemic, that’s the highest delinquency expectation reading seen in the monthly survey since January 2017. “For people with good incomes and good credit scores, things are going well; they’re still able to access plenty of credit and, by and large, paying on time,” he said. Now the other half, that can be a much more troublesome situation when you think about potentially longer-term credit card debt.”Lower-income Americans face higher inflation, research shows.
Persons: they’ll, haven’t, Ted Rossman, it’s, that’s, ” Rossman, Rossman, , they’re, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, Fed, Bankrate, , Minneapolis Federal, of Labor Statistics, York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, Minneapolis
Trump's proposed tax break would make interest on car loans fully tax deductible. That tax break lets homeowners deduct annual mortgage interest payments from their taxable income, thereby reducing their tax bill. Few taxpayers claim itemized tax deductionsTo get the deduction, car owners would need to itemize their tax return to include their borrowing costs. About 14.8 million federal tax returns, or about 9%, claimed an itemized deduction on their 2021 federal tax returns, according to the most recent IRS data. An itemized tax break on car loan interest "would help only a fraction of taxpayers," said Leonard Burman, an institute fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
Persons: Donald Trump, Sarah Rice, Trump's, Experian, It'd, Seiberg, Trump, didn't, Erica York, , Leonard Burman, Burman, York, it'd Organizations: Detroit Economic, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Federal Reserve Bank of New, AAA, Trump, Cowen Washington Research Group, Republicans, CNBC, Finance, Social Security, Taxpayers, Tax, Center, Federal Tax, Urban, Brookings Tax Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Detroit, York
The education gap grows“The biggest single, best predictor of how someone’s going to vote in American politics now is education level. The real swing votersTo the extent that traditional swing voters are persuadable in this election, Sosnik argued they might be people like political independents or Nikki Haley Republicans. But there’s a second group of swing voters Sosnik argued is even more important. For Trump, these are non-college-educated White voters in general, particularly men, who “if they vote, you know they’re going to vote for Trump,” he said. Young voters, who are less reliable to cast ballots, also fall into this second type of swing voters, Sosnik said.
Persons: Roe, Wade, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton’s, ” Sosnik, David Chalian, Sosnik, , “ that’s, , Louis, Joe Biden, Trump, Harris, Nikki Haley Republicans, there’s, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN —, Rural, Democrats, Democratic, CNN, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Federal Reserve Bank of St, White, Lumina, Trump, Young, “ Republicans, Republican Locations: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Utah
New York CNN —On the second Monday of October, Americans will be celebrating Indigenous Peoples’ Day, also known as Columbus Day. Indigenous Peoples’ Day recognizes the contributions and legacy of those who lived here long before Christopher Columbus erroneously claimed to have discovered America. President Joe Biden formally recognized Indigenous Peoples’ Day in 2021 by signing a proclamation stating that federal policies “systematically sought to assimilate and displace Native people and eradicate Native cultures.”Some states officially celebrate Indigenous Peoples’ Day and others commemorate it through proclamations. More than 100 cities have replaced Columbus Day altogether with the holiday. Chase Bank and TD Bank will be open for Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
Persons: Christopher Columbus, Joe Biden, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Indigenous, Columbus Day . Indigenous, , Indigenous Peoples, Columbus, Banks, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, Bank of America, Citibank, Chase Bank, TD Bank, Mail, United States Postal Service, UPS, FedEx, FedEx Express, Target, Walmart, Kroger Locations: New York, America, Wells Fargo
Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China
After the latest blast of consumer inflation data, traders are facing a conundrum around how they should interpret the monthly numbers. September's consumer price index report topped the Street's expectations, rising 0.1% from the month prior and increasing at a pace of 2.4% over the past 12 months. Still, the annual inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Relative to expectations, September's CPI number does not imply a reacceleration of inflation. Rather, the rate of consumer inflation continues to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than some had hoped for.
Persons: Dow Jones, Nonfarm payrolls, Austan Goolsbee, Ron Insana Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Social Security, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CNBC Locations: U.S
Citi: 'no magic number' for RBI's FX reserves
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCiti: 'no magic number' for RBI's FX reservesCiti's chief India economist, Samiran Chakraborty clarifies how the Reserve Bank of India shores up its forex reserves, determined by India's balance of payments and capital inflows. He also discusses labor market data, noting that improving skills is a key focus for the Indian government's five-year term.
Persons: Samiran Chakraborty Organizations: Citi, RBI's FX, Reserve Bank of India Locations: India
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures retreated 4.63% during U.S. trading hours Tuesday, halting the red-hot rally oil prices have experienced the past week. The central bank's likely to make another half-point cut in November, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, told CNBC. On the back of such turbulence, CNBC Pro asks two strategists whether now's the time to invest in China.
Persons: It's, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's Organizations: Central, CNBC, Technology, Nasdaq, Google, U.S . Department of Justice, U.S, The New York Times, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Reserve Bank of New, CSI, CNBC Pro Locations: New York, United States, Jerusalem, Israel, Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Australia, New Zealand, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's central bank is likely to pivot toward lower rates in the next few months, economist saysKrishna Bhimavarapu, Asia-Pacific economist at State Street Global Advisors, discusses the outlook for the Reserve Bank of India's approach to interest rates, saying it's in a "sweet spot."
Persons: Krishna Bhimavarapu Organizations: State Street Global Advisors, Reserve Bank of Locations: Asia, Pacific
The New Zealand dollar slumped to its lowest since Aug. 19 at $0.6096, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week had predicted a big half a percentage point cut. The central bank kicked off an easing cycle in August seeking to trim rates from 15-year highs. The U.S. data calendar this week is relatively light, offering a breather after a strong jobs report on Friday sent the dollar jumping and markets repricing the expected scale of upcoming interest rate reductions. On Wednesday, investors will get minutes of the Fed's September meeting, which will show discussions about what at the time had appeared to be a deteriorating labor market that ended with all but one policymaker agreeing to a 50-basis point cut.
Organizations: New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: United States, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected, but tweaked its policy stance to "neutral," opening the door for rate cuts amid early signs of a growth slowdown in the economy. The Monetary Policy Committee, which consists of three RBI and three external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for a tenth straight policy meeting. The committee, however, changed its policy stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation." The MPC last changed rates in February 2023, when the policy rate was raised to 6.50%. India's overall growth slowed to 6.7% in the June quarter.
Organizations: Bank of, Global, Reserve Bank of India, Monetary, Committee, Reuters, MPC, PMI Locations: Bank of India, Mumbai, India
An aerial view shows the Central Bank of India building, in Mumbai, India, 28 September, 2022. (Photo by Niharika Kulkarni/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Asia-Pacific markets rebounded on Wednesday following a broad decline in the previous session and as Wall Street rallied overnight. Investors are focused on policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India. New Zealand's central bank is expected to slash its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%, while the RBI is expected to hold rates at 6.5%.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni Organizations: Central Bank of India, Getty Images, Wall Street, Investors, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of India Locations: Mumbai, India, Asia, Pacific, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New
A security guard stands in the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand located in central Wellington, New Zealand, July 3, 2017. New Zealand's central bank has slashed its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points after its monetary policy meeting, marking a second straight cut to its benchmark interest rate. The cut brings the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate to 4.75% from 5.25%. The central bank said at the time that the pace of further easing will depend on how confident it is about a low inflation environment. New Zealand's annual inflation rate hit 7.3% in the June quarter 2022, its highest level in over three decades.
Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, Reuters Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington , New Zealand, New
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRBNZ likely to cut rates by another 50 basis points at its next meeting: HSBC economistPaul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC, says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut rates further in 2025, reaching a policy rate of 3.25% by end-2025 or 3% by early 2026.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The dollar clung to seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors ponder the outlook for U.S. rates after a strong jobs report last week dashed bets for large rate cuts, while escalating tensions in Middle East dented risk sentiment. Traders have drastically shifted their monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve this year. That has kept the dollar on the front foot and surging to a multi-week high against the euro, sterling and the yen. The New Zealand dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.6144 ahead of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rate by 50 basis points.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Louis, Alberto Musalem, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asia FX, InTouch, Reserve Bank of St, Treasury, Bank of, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Middle East, Asia, China, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Foreign investors now hold 39% of Peru's sovereign bond market holdings, the highest level across all emerging market countries. This underscores the increasingly positive sentiment surrounding the Peru's fixed income outlook. "It has recognized the need to provide international investors positive returns on domestic assets, and for central banks to be aligned with international investors and provide positive returns on domestic assets." "In some sense, the lack of a strong executive has led to better fixed income outcomes," Austerweil added. Dhawan also underscored that Peruvian fixed income is a high quality market for foreign investors.
Persons: Moody's, Dina Boluarte's, Pramol Dhawan, Pimco, Dhawan, David Austerweil, Soberano, Austerweil Organizations: Southern Copper Corp, Lawmakers, Peruvian, International Monetary Fund, Central Reserve Bank of, Bank of America, Mining Locations: Peru, Sol, Central Reserve Bank of Peru, America, U.S, Peruvian, China
Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher. Spokespeople for General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo did not immediately respond to requests for comment. President Joe Biden has mentioned shrinkflation numerous times, declaring it a “rip-off” in a video he posted to X. Sarah Gallo, senior vice president of federal affairs at Consumer Brands Association, a trade group that Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and General Mills all belong to, defended industry practices to NBC News. Dean said the letters were sent to “ease the wrongful burden” the companies are imposing on consumers.
Persons: Sen, Elizabeth Warren of, Madeleine Dean of, Mills, General Mills, Jeff Harmening, James Quincey, , Ramon Laguarta, Spokespeople, Warren, Dean, ” Warren, ” Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Ting Shen, Joe Biden, Nailya Ordabayeva, , ” Ordabayeva, shrinkflation, Doritos, Sarah Gallo, ’ ” Dean Organizations: Democratic, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cola, PepsiCo, NBC, North, Retail, CNBC, Gatorade, Republican, Taxation, Economic, , NBC News, Bloomberg, Boston University Questrom School of Business, Consumer Brands Association, General, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: shrinkflation, Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.
Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, , Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, , there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Monday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 2% as investors look ahead to a week of central bank decisions from around the region. Three central banks are set to release their interest rate decisions this week, namely the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOK and RBNZ to cut rates, while the RBI will hold. The BOK on Friday is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate to 3.25% from 3.5%, while the RBNZ is expected to enact a 50-basis-point cut to 4.75% on Wednesday. Back in August, the RBNZ surprised economists after it lowered its policy rate to 5.25% from 5.5%.
Persons: BOK Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of India, Reuters Locations: Seoul . Asia, Pacific, Bank of Korea, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
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