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☆ Meet the group preparing for a Soviet Union-type collapse of the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.

Persons: —, Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago

☆ The revived craze for GameStop is confusing Wall Street. It's 'not in a position to be profitable'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The return of "Roaring Kitty" sparked a jaw-dropping advance in GameStop shares Monday, but such a speculative rally in an unprofitable company will likely end badly once again. Roaring Kitty, the man who inspired the meme stock mania of 2021, resurfaced online with a cryptic image showing a man in a chair leaning forward. GME 5D mountain GameStop Pachter has a underperform rating on GameStop and a $5.60 price target. At Monday's peak, GameStop hit $38.20. During 2021's mania, GameStop shares hit an all-time high of $120.75 intraday, adjusted for a subsequent 4-for-1 stock split in the summer of 2022.

Persons: Kitty, Michael Pachter, Pachter, Jeff deGraaf, he's, deGraaf, Jerome Powell, Bernstein, Mark Schilsky Organizations: GameStop, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Macro

☆ Here's why Renaissance's Jeff Degraaf is bullish on China
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why Renaissance's Jeff Degraaf is bullish on ChinaJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his market outlook and bullish attitude toward China.

Persons: Jeff Degraaf, China Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro Locations: China

☆ Two rate cuts this year is still reasonable, says Renaissance's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo rate cuts this year is still reasonable, says Renaissance's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss what today's CPI report could mean for the Fed's next move.

Persons: Renaissance's Neil Dutta Neil Dutta

☆ Gold still has more upside duration ahead, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGold still has more upside duration ahead, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman and CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss technicals for commodities and energy.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ It's been four years since the market's Covid low with the S&P 500 returning 25% annualized since
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.

Persons: –, Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America

☆ Nvidia's rally has 'stalled' and could be stuck for months, says Renaissance Macro chair
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Nvidia 's long rally could be giving way to a consolidation period that lasts for months, according to Renaissance Macro Research chairman Jeff DeGraaf. "I think we're stalled here for Nvidia," DeGraaf said Monday on CNBC's "Money Movers ." This combination of a big rally plus elevated trading activity suggests that the stock is overheated, according to DeGraaf. The stock was trading near the $870 level on Monday. This period could take three to six months, DeGraaf said, and he compared it to a brief slump Nvidia had last summer.

Persons: Jeff DeGraaf, DeGraaf, It's Organizations: Nvidia, Macro

☆ Room for Nvidia's stock to consolidate and absorb momentum, says Renaissance Macro's deGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRoom for Nvidia's stock to consolidate and absorb momentum, says Renaissance Macro's deGraafJeff Degraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman and CEO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what deGraaf expects to happen to Nvidia's stock, if investors will have more chances to get invested in Nvidia, and more.

Persons: Jeff Degraaf Organizations: Macro, Nvidia

☆ Move on from Apple, tactically: Renaissance Macro Research CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMove on from Apple, tactically: Renaissance Macro Research CEOJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman and CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss watching the market for momentum exhaustion.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Apple, Macro

Recent job cuts have been concentrated mainly in just a few sectors: technology, finance and media. Relative to the U.S. labor force of 160 million people, layoffs so far have been dwarfed by consistently vigorous hiring — a monthly average of 248,000 jobs added over the past six months. THE LAYOFFS ARE SPREAD OVER TIMEHigh-profile job cuts typically involve many layoffs that aren't implemented immediately. So they weren't included in the January jobs data that was released Friday because the layoffs hadn't yet taken place. Jobs cuts are deeply distressing and disruptive for people who suffer them.

Persons: they've, —, They're, That's, binges, Todd McKinnon, ” Organizations: WASHINGTON, Blockbuster, eBay, UPS, Spotify, Manufacturers, Labor Department, Companies Locations: Federal, U.S

☆ Fed is only likely to deliver 3 or 4 rate cuts this year, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed is only likely to deliver 3 or 4 rate cuts this year, says economistNeil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research says the U.S. economy is on "pretty firm ground" and explains why he is not concerned about a recession this year.

Persons: Neil Dutta Organizations: Macro Locations: U.S

☆ Good news for economy shouldn't mean the Fed needs to stay hawkish: Wilmington Trust's Meghan Shue
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood news for economy shouldn't mean the Fed needs to stay hawkish: Wilmington Trust's Meghan ShueNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research head of U.S. economics, and Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust head of investment strategy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Wilmington, Meghan Shue Neil Dutta, Meghan Shue Organizations: Wilmington Trust Locations: hawkish, Wilmington

☆ Stocks end 2023 with a 4th-quarter rally and many soft landing converts. Breaking down the '24 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-30 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD As for the "too far, too fast" argument, it's worth recalling that all the S & P 500 has done is nearly complete an almost-symmetrical two-year round trip. Ned Davis Research U.S. strategist Ed Clissold looked back at prior times the S & P 500 has gone more than a year without making a record high. This is always a tricky proposition – cash that leaves money markets to buy stocks leaves the seller of the stocks with cash. For one thing, $6 trillion is only about 12% of total U.S. equity market cap, near the lower end of its historical range. At the 2009 market low money markets were 50% of equity market cap.

Persons: —, we've, Jason Goepfert, Jeff deGraaf, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jerome Powell, it's, Cash Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Timely, National Association of Active Investment, Ned Davis Research, Investment, of

☆ After 3 years of pain, America has finally achieved economic nirvana
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

The October jobs report — with the economy adding just 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% — was a disappointment. Of particular notice, the unemployment rate has increased by half a percentage point over the past six months. A simple way to show that things are still in balance is to look at Okun's law, a relationship between movements in the unemployment rate and economic activity. The historical record shows that once it rises half a percentage point, the unemployment rate tends to rise even more. The unemployment rate is already above the Fed's year-end forecast of 3.8% — the first time that's happened since March 2022.

Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, It's, we're, What's, what's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro Locations: joblessness, nonfarm payrolls

☆ Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf gives the technical take for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf gives the technical take for 2024Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market setup and the technicals he's seeing.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ Focus on the trend of price not of breadth, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFocus on the trend of price not of breadth, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his year-end level expectation, Disney and market trends.

Persons: Jeff DeGraaf Jeff DeGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ The Dow is nearing the dreaded 'death cross.' What investors should know
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If the two cross over, it would form the dreaded "death cross," which can indicate that momentum is weakening or sentiment is souring — and more downside could be on the horizon. It would be the first death cross for the average since late 2022. 'Something bad could happen' The threat of a death cross also underscores challenges specific to the Dow this year. Oppenheimer managing director Ari Wald advised investors to stay away from indexes near or at the death cross like the Dow or the Russell 2000 . Ultimately, technical analysts argue the death cross is both an important yet flawed measure.

Persons: Todd Walsh, Jeff deGraaf, That's, deGraaf, John Kolovos, Dow, Kolovos, Alpha Cubed's Walsh, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Alpha Cubed Investments, Macro, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve

☆ Renaissance's Jeff Degraaf explains why he's bullish on the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance's Jeff Degraaf explains why he's bullish on the marketJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research Chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to break down the current market and why he has pivoted to a bullish stance.

Persons: Jeff Degraaf, Jeff DeGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ Here's what analysts see in store for stocks as the US government barrels towards a shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US government is more likely than not to shutdown by the end of the month, Goldman Sachs warned. But stocks could rebound quickly from any ensuing volatility, stock market experts say. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro. "I think the government shutdown itself isn't a major issue from a stock market perspective," Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner said to CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, it's, aren't, Charles Schwab, Alec Phillips, shutdowns, Dow Jones, Wells, Truist, Keith Lerner Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Research, CNBC

☆ Energy remains the cheapest sector in the market: Renaissance Macro's Jeff DeGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy remains the cheapest sector in the market: Renaissance Macro's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his bull case for energy.

Persons: Jeff DeGraaf Jeff DeGraaf Organizations: Email Energy

☆ The US will be 'drowning in debt' over the next 30 years as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster," the research firm said. "Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster." Meanwhile, the government's debt servicing costs hit $475 billion in 2022, up 35% from the $352 billion spent to service the national debt in 2021. Debt servicing costs will likely increase to $663 billion this year, the CBO estimated, with total interest payments on the debt potentially mounting to $10.6 trillion over the next 10 years. Rising debt servicing costs pose trouble for markets and economy.

Persons: Stephen Pavlick, Pavlick, that's, Glenmede Organizations: Service, Macro, Congressional, Office, Committee, Federal Budget, Fed, CBO, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The easy money phase of this rally is probably behind us, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe easy money phase of this rally is probably behind us, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the overall equity markets, whether the markets will continue to broaden their rally, and more.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ Forget recessions and vibecessions, we're in the middle of a confused-as-hell-cession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Sirena Bergman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk is confused as hell by the economy. It feels like a recession is coming, but the details are hard to understand for the average person. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. No wonder we're all spending less time doing our jobs, we're too exhausted from trying to figure this all out. It's a confused-as-hell-cession, and Elon Musk has never been more relatable.

Persons: Elon Musk, you've, you'll, Neil Dutta, who's, It's Organizations: Service, Elon, York Life Investments, Macro Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Labor markets will hold up better than price inflation, says RenMac's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor markets will hold up better than price inflation, says RenMac's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his case for avoiding a recession, tailwinds of fiscal policy, and understanding the uptick in consumer delinquency rates as a credit normalization.

Persons: RenMac's Neil Dutta Neil Dutta Organizations: Email Labor, Macro

☆ 'I've seen this show before': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still barreling toward the US economy — and stocks are due to suffer as misguided optimism fuels
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, —, I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro

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