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Meanwhile, analysts polled by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, forecast earnings of 81 cents per share and $4.34 billion in revenue. Peloton — Shares fell more than 23% on the back of the company's bleak outlook for the current quarter and full-year sales. Peloton is forecasting sales to come in between $700 million and $725 million for the quarter. Analysts polled by LSEG expected revenue of $9.70 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.10 versus the $1.66 expected from analysts polled by StreetAccount.
Persons: Robinson, Nextracker, Wolfspeed, MaxLinear, Qorvo, TD Cowen, Gabe Daoud Jr, — CNBC's Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim, Spencer Kimball, Scott Schnipper Organizations: LSEG, , Honeywell, New York Community Bank, Regional Banking, Western Alliance, T Bank, Norfolk Southern, Ancora Holdings, Street Journal, Merck —, Merck, FactSet, StreetAccount, Revenue, Qualcomm, Citi
Data compiled by The Earnings Scout shows the early reporters have had no trouble beating earnings expectations so far. Tuesday Goldman Sachs is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. What history shows: Goldman exceeds earnings expectations 85% of the time, data from Bespoke Investment Group shows. What history shows: Bespoke data shows PNC tops earnings expectations 75% of the time. What history shows: KeyCorp shares have fallen on four of the last five earnings days, Bespoke data shows.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Hugh Son, Goldman, James Gorman, Ted Pick, it's, Jefferies, Schlumberger, SLB, Wells, Roger Read Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wall, PNC Financial, CNBC, Investment Group, Management, LSEG, PNC, Regional Banking, JPMorgan, UST, Schlumberger Locations: Wells Fargo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, 3Q23, SLB
The equity market is due for a cooldown, according to several strategists, who are telling clients to begin positioning themselves defensively in preparation for a slow-growth earnings environment next year. The S & P 500 has rallied almost 24% this year, but is up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , for example, is up 24% this quarter, but still down 12% for the year. According to Calvasina, industrials are the most overvalued sector in the S & P 500, while energy and communication services offer the most attractive valuations. .GSPHC YTD mountain S & P Health Care sector performance this year.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, haven't, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Barclays, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Regional Banking, RBC Capital, P Health Care, JPMorgan Locations: Krishna, SPX, Europe
It's time to pick positions in bank stocks heading into year end as peak rates could be a "mini clearing event" for the sector, according to Bank of America. "While we are careful to not [get] carried away, peak interest rates do have potential to serve as a mini clearing event for bank stocks," BofA's Ebrahim Poonawala wrote in a Sunday note. Regional banks are down by 27% this year, and have continued to face intense scrutiny due to their exposure to commercial real estate. "Best case, peak rates could mark near term bottom in bank stocks vs. S & P." To be sure, there remain issues in the sector. Bank stocks are highly tied to the broader economy and their loans could take a hit if the U.S. falls into a recession.
Persons: BofA's Ebrahim Poonawala, JPMorgan Chase, KRE, Poonawala, NIM, it's, Bryn Talkington, Talkington, Morgan Stanley, Bill Gross, Gross Organizations: Bank of America, Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Regional Banking, P Bank, Federal Reserve, Capital Management, West Bancorp, Truist Financial, Citizens, Apple Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S
Longtime investor Bill Gross said Thursday that regional banks are poised to bounce back with the tailwind of falling interest rates. "Regional banks … benefit from lower interest rates," Gross said on CNBC's " Last Call ." Many of these banks including Bank of America, including Schwab, have long-term bond positions … a 2% or 3% rise in prices is beneficial for them." Gross also noted that regional bank shares are now very cheap, and many of them offer hefty dividends. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which tracks 140 regional banks, has fallen about 28% this year.
Persons: Bill Gross, Gross, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Truist, Citizens, Apple, Regional Banking
Steve Eisman of the "The Big Short" fame said Thursday that one investment mantra he swears by is telling him that buying beaten-up bank stocks won't be fruitful. "One thing I've learned in my career over the years is that buying something just because it's cheap is a value trap and shorting something because it's very expensive is a death wish," Eisman said on CNBC's " Squawk Box ." Uncertainty caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year triggered outflows at other regional banks as well as larger institutions, he said. KRE YTD mountain SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , which tracks 140 regional banks, has fallen about 30% this year. Apart from banks, Eisman said companies selling high-priced real estate, cars and solar panels could be under pressure as lofty interest rates could keep consumers from borrowing.
Persons: Steve Eisman, I've, Eisman, Michael Lewis, Oscar, Neuberger Berman Organizations: Regulators, Regional Banking, Regional Banking ETF Locations: Silicon
Following the bank closings, many other regional banks have had to pay higher interest rates on deposits in order to prevent customers from heading towards the exit. Comerica saw declines in both provisions and net interest income and a 28% decline in net income compared to last year. Zions Bancorp had a dramatic decline as well, seeing yearly declines in net interest income and provisions. Going forward, if demand for loans dries up, that gets rid of a key source of income for regional banks. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, a benchmark for judging the performance of shares of regional banks, was down 2.9% over five days as of midday trading on Friday.
Persons: , ” Nathan Stovall, Stovall, ” Stovall, Huntington Bancshares, , Jerome Powell, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: CNN, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal, P Global Market Intelligence, US Bancorp, Financial Corp, T Bank Corp, PNC Financial Services Group, Inc, Commerce, Comerica, Zions Bancorp, Keycorp, Zions, T Bank, PNC, Regional Banking, Fed, Citi Group, Wells, JPMorgan Locations: Ohio, Dallas, Salt, Huntington, Commerce, Keycorp, Regions, Gaza, Wells Fargo
One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.
Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ
Regional banks will be in focus in the week ahead as traders head into the thick of third-quarter earnings season. Regional bank earnings are also expected to be a weak point this season. But a closer look into the sector's sub-industries showed that regional banks are anticipated to have tumbled by 15% last quarter. Traders parsing through regional bank earnings will pay special attention to signs of narrowing net interest margins (NIM). Earnings season underway Many investors anticipate that the third-quarter earnings season will be alright.
Persons: Wells, Kumar, FactSet's John Butters, NIM, They'll, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet's Butters, Nancy Tengler, Lauren Goodwin, we'll, Goodwin, Charles Schwab, Lockheed Martin, Goldman, Zions, Kinder Morgan, Lam, McLennan, Philip Morris, Huntington Bancshares, , Jesse Pound Organizations: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Sri, Kumar, Silicon Valley Bank, Regional Banking, Dow Jones Industrial, JPMorgan, Hamas, Northern Trust, U.S . Bancorp, T Bank, Citizens Financial, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Companies, Investments, New York Life Investments, Index, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, Goldman Sachs Group, Hunt Transport Services, Omnicom, United Airlines Wednesday, Housing, Elevance, Citizens Financial Group, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Discover Financial Services, Las Vegas Sands, PPG Industries, Steel Dynamics, Tesla, Netflix, Lam Research, Philadelphia Fed, Truist, Alaska Air Group, Fifth Third Bancorp, American Airlines Group, Marsh, Philip Morris International, Union, CSX, Comerica, Regions Financial, American Express, Interpublic, Cos Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon, Ukraine, Israel, J.B, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Truist Financial, Union Pacific, Freeport, Huntington
JPMorgan Chase Bank is seen in New York City, U.S., March 21, 2023. In the first 10 days of this month, the $1.46 billion Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB.O) saw net outflows of $336.18 million, while the $2.49 billion SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF saw net outflows of $19.58 million. Overall, the Invesco fund and the SPDR fund posted net inflows of $381.16 million and $565.15 million so far this year. The prices of the ETFs are down 23% and 28.4%, respectively, as bank stocks fell sharply earlier this year following the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank and two other U.S. lenders. "Although, our equity research team indicates that selling may have pushed prices down too far and created a buying opportunity."
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Hogan, Riley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Bryan Armour, Bansari Mayur, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Bank, REUTERS, Exchange, KBW Bank, Regional Banking, Valley Bank, U.S, Federal, JPMorgan, Citigroup, North America, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, California, Bengaluru
Goldman Sachs expects rates to hold steady again as inflation trends down and the labor market remains strong. But Raymond Bridges, the portfolio manager of the Bridges Capital ETF, an actively managed equity long-only fund, believes the overall macro outlook is still bearish. But regional banks continue to access this program every week, Bridges said. But just because he's bearish on the macro outlook doesn't mean he's not going to take advantage of short-term opportunities. His ETF, launched on May 11, is a mix of US equity-index ETFs, large-cap stocks, and cash or cash equivalents.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Raymond Bridges, Bridges, Joseph Abate, Jerome Powell, he's bearish, Russell Organizations: Fed, Bridges Capital ETF, Barclays, Reuters, Regional Banking, Trust, BPI
Steve Eisman, the investor who called and profited from the subprime mortgage crisis, said Thursday that he's staying away from bank stocks due to risks from crimped margins and tougher regulations. "I happen to think the whole bank sector is uninvestable," Eisman, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said on CNBC's " Squawk Box. " Uncertainty caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year triggered outflows at other regional banks and larger institutions. With short-term rates spiking higher than long-term rates, bank margins have been hurt. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , which tracks 140 regional banks, has fallen more than 33% this year.
Persons: Steve Eisman, he's, Eisman, Neuberger Berman, Eisman's, Banks, Michael Lewis Organizations: Federal, Regional Banking ETF Locations: Silicon
Stock futures are near flat Tuesday night as investors came off a losing session that marked the latest leg down in an August slump. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were also both little changed. The moves follow a losing session on Wall Street, with all three of the major indexes finishing more than 1% lower on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ended the session below its 50-day moving average, which could signal a downturn ahead. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are on track to end 5% and 3.3% lower, respectively, while the Dow is slated to drop 1.7%.
Persons: Dow, Wells, Fitch, Neel Kashkari, Keith Buchanan, It's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Minneapolis Federal, Regional Banking, Globalt Investments, Target, TJX Companies Locations: New York City, Cava, Wells Fargo, China
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari favors getting tougher on regional banks, following a crisis earlier this year that he said may not be over. Regional bank shares fell as Kashkari spoke. Those banks holding longer-dated Treasurys faced capital losses as rates went up and bond prices fell. Should the Fed have to keep raising rates, that could affect banks in the same situation.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Treasurys Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal, Regional Banking, Troubled Asset Relief, Bank Locations: New York City , New York, Minneapolis
U.S. bank shares dropped on Tuesday after ratings agency Moody's downgraded credit ratings of several U.S. regional lenders and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrade. It warned lenders will find it harder to make money as interest rates remain high, funding costs climb and a potential recession looms. The warning caught some investors off guard. On Tuesday, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF's (KRE.P) options-based 30-day implied volatility rose to 31.1%, up from 28.9% touched on Monday. "In the near term, there are reasons for caution about banks in general and we have made changes where appropriate," he said.
Persons: SPDR, Steve Sosnick, There's, David Wagner, David Smith, Brian Mulberry, Michelle Price, Diane Craft Organizations: Moody's Corporation, P Bank, Regional Banking, Silicon Valley Bank, Banking, Interactive, Alert, Aptus Capital, Autonomous Research, Analysts, Zacks Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Silicon
Moody's warning this week about the credit worthiness of more than two dozen banks has created a buy-the-dip opportunity in shares of regional lenders, according to JPMorgan. The credit rating agency downgraded the ratings of 10 regional banks on Monday evening, and signaled concern for about 17 more. But JPMorgan analyst Steven Alexopoulos said in a note to clients on Wednesday that those concerns are already priced in to bank stocks, and regional bank stocks now have upside from current levels. That means that many bank stocks look cheaper today than before the downgrades, Alexoloulos said. JPMorgan's top picks among regional banks include New York Community Bancorp.
Persons: Steven Alexopoulos, Moody's, Alexoloulos, JPMorgan's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Silicon Valley Bank, First, Pinnacle Financial, Pinnacle, Regional Banking, New York Community Bancorp, Western Alliance Locations: Silicon, New
.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 1-month Since then, it's been one excuse after another. Everything Tuesday was down about 1.0-1.25% midday, including the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) the market-cap weighted S & P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the small-cap Russell 2000, but most ended down a fraction of a percent. At nearly 5% yield, money market funds are still sucking in money, even with the S & P 500 up 18% this year. I mentioned Monday that money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pace of money market flows reflects a larger apathy towards stock," Todd Sohn from Strategas told clients.
Persons: it's, Moody's, Mike O'Rourke, Dow Jones, Sellers, Harry Whitton, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Todd Sohn, Strategas, David Kelly Organizations: Bank of Japan, Jones Trading, Regional Banking, Nasdaq, Chief Global, Morgan Asset Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S
JPMorgan's top stock picker Marko Kolanovic says investors should stay underweight equities. But Kolanovic said investors are ignoring the risks that could still lead to a recession. These include the small chance that central banks in developed markets around the world would ease back on interest rates anytime soon. Given this, the strategist advised investors remain underweight equities, particularly in riskier growth stocks. "As such, we maintain an overall defensive stance in our model portfolio, and continue to be UW equities and credit vs. OW in cash and commodities," he said.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Moody's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Reserve, Regional Banking
Moody's downgraded the credit of 10 small regional banks by one notch apiece, while 17 other banks were either given negative outlook or had their rating put under review. In a note, Moody's cited many of the concerns around interest rate risk that led to the collapse of several regional banks earlier this year. Among the banks that were downgraded on Tuesday, shares of M&T Bank and Webster Financial fell more than 3% each. Shares of PNC Financial and Citizens Financial Group , which were given negative outlooks by Moody's, fell about 4%. That puts the fund on track for its worst day since May 4, when the fund fell nearly 5.5%.
Persons: Moody's Organizations: T Bank, Webster Financial, PNC Financial, Citizens Financial Group, Regional Banking
Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan
Morgan Stanley — Shares of the James Gorman-led bank jumped more than 6% after the firm posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations. Bank of America – Bank of America shares rose nearly 4% after the company reported second-quarter financial results. Bank of New York Mellon — Shares rose more than 4% after Bank of New York Mellon reported second-quarter revenue and profit that beat Wall Street's expectations. PNC Financial — Shares gained 2.6% after PNC Financial reported second-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street's earnings expectations but came in slightly short on revenue. The Swiss pharmaceutical firm reported second-quarter earnings that topped estimates, according to StreetAccount.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley —, James Gorman, Morgan Stanley's, Refinitiv, PacWest, Bernstein, UnitedHealth, Pinterest, intraday, Masimo preannounced, Stifel, Lockheed Martin, Macheel, Sarah Min, Yun Li, Alex Harring, Michelle Fox Organizations: Bank of America – Bank of America, Regional Banking, Western Alliance, FB Financial, Verizon, AT, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC, PNC Financial, Novartis — U.S, Novartis, Sandoz, Masimo, Lockheed Locations: San Francisco , California, Swiss, FactSet
The new corporate earnings season revs up next week, and some stocks could do well on the back of their reports. The regional bank has beat earnings expectations in 70% of its past reports and typically advances 1.7% on the back of a report. Blackstone Investment firm Blackstone also made the list, with the company beating expectations 70% and 79% of the time for earnings and revenue, respectively. Horton , which is also set to report Thursday, has beat earnings expectations 76% of the time and sales forecasts 70%. The company, which reports Thursday after the bell, has beat earnings and sales expectations 87% and 83% of the time, respectively.
Persons: revs, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, they've, Wells, Jared Shaw, WAL, Blackstone, D.R, Horton D.R, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert Organizations: Bank of America, Netflix, United, Investors, CNBC Pro, Investment, Western Alliance, Western Alliance Bancorp, Regional Banking, Blackstone Investment, Truland Locations: Horton, Friday's
Lucid Group — Lucid shares jumped 9% after the electric vehicle maker said it will provide powertrain and battery systems to British luxury automaker Aston Martin. Davidson upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, noting WSFS could benefit from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. UBS upgraded the pharmaceutical stock to buy from neutral, saying the potential for other vaccines for the company isn't fully appreciated by investors. Alphabet — Shares of Alphabet fell 1.8% after UBS downgraded the tech giant to neutral from buy. Tesla — The electric vehicle maker dropped 2.8% after Goldman Sachs downgraded Tesla to neutral from buy.
Persons: Aston, Davidson, WSFS, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound Organizations: Aston Martin, D.A, Regional Banking, Pfizer, Cruise, Moderna — Moderna, UBS, Barclays Locations: Royal Caribbean
A major financial services CEO warns the economy hasn't fully absorbed higher interest rates yet. "The bite of these higher rates is gaining traction almost every day." Michaud delivered the call hours after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged. According to Michaud, the regional bank rally is a short-term bounce. He sees a shift from adjusting to the new interest rate environment to credit quality in the second half of this year.
Persons: Thomas Michaud, there's, CNBC's, " Michaud, Michaud, Banks, haven't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Regional Banking
A small bank based in West Virginia has positioned itself as a key figure in the online betting world, and that first-mover advantage should have staying power, according to JPMorgan. "We find that the MVB team has been forming an ecosystem around the bank over the past five years serving the online gaming industry (which was legalized at the federal level in 2018). MVB Edge Ventures is a subsidiary of the bank, and it provides management oversight for the firm's tech investments. JPMorgan first initiated coverage of MVB with an overweight rating on Feb. 27 , before the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. MVBF YTD mountain Shares of MVB Financial have performed better than many other regional bank stocks in 2023.
Persons: Steven Alexopoulos, MVB, that's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, MVB, Edge Ventures, MVB Edge Ventures, Silicon Valley Bank, Regional Banking Locations: West Virginia, Silicon, MVB
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