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☆ US investors flag retaliation risks after Biden's China tech curbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But several portfolio managers said the bigger worry was whether China would strike back, as it has in the past. "It is naïve to think that there won't be some type of retaliation from China," said Tom Plumb, CEO of mutual fund Plumb Funds. China could restrict exports of rare earths used in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and other components, or target other U.S. technology companies, Plumb said. SELF-SUFFICIENCYChina hawks in Washington say American investors have transferred capital and valuable know-how to Chinese technology companies that could help advance Beijing's military capabilities. Phillip Wool, a co-portfolio manager of Rayliant Quantamental China Equity ETF, said U.S.-China tensions were causing investors to miss out on China growth.

Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Biden, Rick Meckler, Tom Plumb, Plumb, Michael Ashley Schulman, Phillip Wool, Shashwat Chauhan, Amruta, Chibuike Oguh, Laura Matthews, Herbert Lash, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, Cherry Lane Investments, China Exchange, Wall, Micron Technology, U.S, Funds, Reuters, Running, Capital Advisors, China Equity, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, New Jersey, Washington, Rayliant

☆ Stock-market investors rarely see a recession coming despite warning signals. As all the classic alarm bells ring again, this time is no different, experts say — setting investors up to get crushed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics

☆ 'All roads lead to TSMC' for AI chip manufacturing
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'All roads lead to TSMC' for AI chip manufacturing, but it's still a small part of the businessPhillip Wool of Rayliant Global Advisors says it will take time for AI chip manufacturing to become a meaningful part of TSMC's overall business.

Persons: it's, Phillip Wool Organizations: Rayliant Global Advisors

☆ Bad news on China's economy now is 'good' news, says fund manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBad news on China's economy now is 'good' news, says fund managerAny bad news on the Chinese economy now is probably "good" because the market is expecting decisive policy support to stimulate growth, says Jason Hsu, chairman and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors.

Persons: Jason Hsu Organizations: Rayliant Global Advisors

☆ A 20-year fund manager shares 8 mega-trend stocks he's betting will take market share — and the 5 he's shorting
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Gary Black says the stock market will continue to trend higher with volatility this year. What the remainder of 2023 has in store for the stock market is anyone's guess at this point. But Gary Black, a 20-year fund manager, and the portfolio manager and managing partner at The Future Fund, has a more positive outlook. The next mega trend is big data and cyber security. mega trend losersOn the side of stocks being shorted, these are the companies that Black expects will lose market share due to these mega trends.

Persons: Gary Black, Phillip Wool, it's, Black, He's, cybertruck, Tesla, Elon Musk, Eli Lilly, Lilly, LULU, Armour Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, EV, Tesla, Company, Palo Alto Networks, Nvidia, Toyota, CNBC, Bloomberg, UA, MAX Holdings Locations: China's, overproducing

☆ 'Fundamentals still matter': A portfolio manager at a firm managing $17 billion warns stocks are due to sink 15% as AI hype fuels the current rally and drowns out recession alarm bells
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.

Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, …, Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group

☆ Services and consumer is where investors need to be in China, says Hightower's Stephanie Link
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailServices and consumer is where investors need to be in China, says Hightower's Stephanie LinkStephanie Link, Hightower Advisors chief investment strategist and portfolio manager, and Jason Hsu, Rayliant Global Advisors CIO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss China's new game plan to revive its flagging economy.

Persons: Stephanie Link Stephanie Link, Hightower, Jason Hsu Organizations: Services, Hightower Advisors, Rayliant Global, CIO Locations: China

☆ Premarket stocks: Banking chaos could break the strong job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The job market has remained strong even as the Federal Reserve has spent a full year attempting to cool off the economy by raising interest rates. But economists think that the recent banking turmoil may be what finally raises unemployment. Even with those big job cuts, the labor market in the United States remains white hot. Since the pandemic, regional banks “have provided a vast majority of lending to small firms, underwriting local small business formation,” said Philip Wool, an analyst with asset manager Rayliant. AI will likely lead to job loss, they wrote, but technological innovation that initially displaces workers has historically created employment growth over long haul.

☆ As tech gets hit again, strategists say these stocks present a buying opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that interest rates are likely to remain "higher than previously anticipated" — usually viewed as bad news for the tech sector. But some market pros see the volatility as an opportunity to snap up growth stocks at bargain prices. Big Tech stock picks Speaking last week, before the sell-off, Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs, urged investors to watch for pullbacks. AI is expected to grow at a compounded rate of 37% by 2026, Jablonski added, citing research by global market intelligence firm International Data Corporation. Firetrail Investments' Anthony Doyle also identified Microsoft as a tech stock he's bullish on , despite the volatility.

☆ We expect one or two more small rate hikes before the Fed pauses, says investment management firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect one or two more small rate hikes before the Fed pauses, says investment management firmPhillip Wool of Rayliant Global Advisors says U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's suggestion that he would like to keep monetary policy restrictive for a little longer can be taken at "face value."

☆ Has inflation finally peaked?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-08 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But for investors, consumers and the Federal Reserve, inflation remains a major economic concern, just as it was in 2022. The hope is that inflation pressures will cool even more dramatically as the year progresses. We believe inflation peaked in June,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer with Laffer Tengler Investments, in a report. Inflation impact on the Fed and housingWhat’s more, lower levels of inflation should allow the Fed to keep slowing its pace of interest rate hikes. But if inflation pressures continue to abate – and the Fed acknowledges that by pulling back on rate hikes – then the housing market may rebound.

Underlining the bleak return prospects at home, hedge funds with Greater China strategies have lost 12.9% for the year to end-November - on track for their worst year since 2011, according to Eurekahedge data. Rich Chinese are also fretting about Xi Jinping's "common prosperity" drive to reduce income inequality, asset managers said, adding that they are looking at overseas private equity and property investment opportunities in countries like the United States and Japan. Although investing outside of mainland China is not a new development, a significant chunk of that wealth has usually been invested in Chinese assets such as Chinese securities listed in the offshore markets. The Boston-based asset manager has been receiving many queries from Greater China family offices to learn about U.S. economic policies and investment rules, he said. The U.S. consulate told Reuters that it frequently explains investment and economic trends in the United States to a wide variety of audiences.

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