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☆ The US labor market cooled off in June, adding just 209,000 jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The US job market cooled back down in June, adding just 209,000 jobs, and fueling optimism that the economy is on course to nail that elusive soft landing of lowering inflation without triggering a recession. That being said, last month’s job growth still outpaces the pre-pandemic average. “The job growth is slowing, but I don’t actually think that’s necessarily a bad thing,” Rucha Vankudre, senior economist for labor market analytics company Lightcast, told CNN. “In the tug of war between the labor market and the economy, there is still a push and pull, yet the labor market remains strong,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said in commentary issued Friday. In June, sectors such as government, as well as health care and social assistance, saw the biggest job gains: 60,000 and 65,200, respectively.

Persons: Rucha Vankudre, We’re, Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup, “, Lightcast’s Vankudre, ” “, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ We’re, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN, “, Federal Reserve, Service, BLS, RSM, Fed Locations: Minneapolis

☆ Premarket stocks: Does the Fed have the labor market all wrong?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The labor market just won’t quit, but this could be another case of “good news is bad news” for the Federal Reserve. But while job growth is a sign of a healthy economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he wants to see more slack in the labor market in order to bring inflation down. But in April, the unemployment rate reached 3.4%, with the 12-month average of unemployment reaching a record low of 3.6%. Plus, the mass retirement of baby boomers, slowing of immigration rates and long-term health impacts of Covid have also permanently altered the labor market. Why it matters: These changes have led many economists to say that the labor market doesn’t matter anymore, said Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX.

Persons: won’t, Jerome Powell, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Kathryn Rooney Vera, boomer, we’ve, “, Vera, Sam Stovall, Bryan Mena, Stovall, Jordan Valinsky Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Gross, RSM, Labor, Fed Fed, CFRA Research, Federal, CNN, Handil Holdings Locations: New York, “

☆ US consumer spending hits speed bump; inflation picture mixed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.2%. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was unchanged. Data for April was revised lower to show the so-called real consumer spending rising only 0.2% instead of 0.5% as previously reported. With consumer spending softening, inflation subsided. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in May after advancing 4.7% in April.

Persons: Kevork, Sal Guatieri, Joe Biden's, Mike Graziano, Morgan Stanley, Dana Peterson, Lucia Mutikani, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Commerce, Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Services outlays, Treasury, RSM, Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles, WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Outlays, New York, Washington

☆ Motor vehicles, building materials lift US retail sales in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a dreaded recession in the near term. Retail sales increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in April, the Commerce Department said. SLOWER MOMENTUMExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales gained 0.2% last month. Data for April was revised slightly lower to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of the previously reported 0.7%. With price pressures easing in May, economists estimated that core retail sales increased 0.2% after adjusting for inflation.

Persons: ”, Robert Kavcic, Mike Graziano, Ben Ayers, Unadjusted, Conrad DeQuadros, Tim Quinlan Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wednesday, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department, Reuters, Saks Fifth, REUTERS, RSM, Consumers, Nationwide, Labor Department, Treasury, Atlanta Fed, Writers Guild of America, Brean, Manufacturing, Federal Locations: Minnesota, U.S, Toronto, New York City, Columbus , Ohio, Texas, California, Writers Guild of America . Georgia, Florida , Illinois , Indiana , Connecticut, New York, Philadelphia, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ Bad news for the Fed: American workers are becoming less productive
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But what does the Fed mean when it talks about labor markets and their impact on inflation? What’s happening: At its most basic level, labor productivity is a measure of the value of the goods and services produced by a company compared with the amount of labor used to produce that output. Labor productivity decreased 2.1% in the first quarter of 2023, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. The silver lining: The good news is technological innovations typically drive upturns in productivity and AI could be such an innovation. Absolutely not,” Yellen said, echoing the joint statement leaders from the Group of Seven made at last month’s summit in Japan.

Persons: Lisa Shalett, ”, Lisa Cook, Joseph Brusuelas, Sundar Pichai, aren’t, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Richard Blumenthal, “, Doug McMillon, Roger McNamee, Steven Spielberg, Vito Corleone, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, Elisabeth Buchwald, Yellen, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Fed, Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, McKinsey Global Institute, Federal, RSM US, of America, Google, Yale School, Management’s, Leadership Institute, Walmart, Technology, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Inter, American Development Bank group’s, African Development Fund, IMF Locations: New York, United States, Michigan, Connecticut, China, Japan

☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

☆ Fed survey: Banks are tightening up their lending standards after rate hikes, turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Survey respondents attributed the changes in lending standards to economic uncertainty, a reduced appetite for risk, deterioration in collateral values and broader concerns about banks’ funding costs and liquidity positions, according to the Fed report. At the time, banks expected that trend of tightening credit, waning demand and deteriorating loan quality would continue. Fed president: Central bank should weigh effectsFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo! Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have previously noted that credit tightening could act similarly to a rate hike. A ‘salient risk’Separately on Monday, the Fed released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which assesses the resilience of the US financial system.

☆ Premarket stocks: What happens above 5%? The Fed's big risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, job openings that month tumbled to their lowest level since May 2021, according to data released Tuesday. The shifting landscape paved the way for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March and First Republic Bank this week. By blessing JPMorgan’s takeover of First Republic Bank, the Democratic US senator fears federal regulators just made the “too big to fail” problem even worse. To the relief of investors and bank customers, the JPMorgan deal protects all of First Republic’s depositors. The decision to invest in food and grocery delivery during the pandemic has become a big advantage for Uber.

☆ First Republic may not survive, even after two multibillion-dollar bailouts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —First Republic Bank is in a fight for its survival. “It’s becoming clearer each day” that First Republic is “toast,” said Don Bilson at Gordon Haskett, in a note Wednesday. First Republic said in its latest earnings call that is exploring its strategic options, Wall Street code for searching for a white knight. First Republic CEO Michael Roffler attempted to assure investors in an earnings call Monday that the bank had enough liquidity to do that. That’s what happened to Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 when the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation took possession of and closed Silicon Valley Bank and on March 12 Signature Bank was closed by the New York State Department of Financial Services.

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ Can the Fed help fend off a banking crisis while also cooling the economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

To stave off the latter, the Fed offered a solution that seemingly contradicted its hawkish flight path: looser purse-strings. That means the Fed can still fight the battle against inflation even while it shores up the banking sector. Although the Fed’s new program is an extraordinary action to ensure bank stability, the Fed is engaged in the lending business every day, Brusuelas noted. “The Fed buys and sells government securities each day to maintain the range of its policy rate — the federal funds rate — between 4.5% and 4.75%,” he said. Once that returns, the central bank can shift its focus back to restoring price stability, he said.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

☆ Why did we get a monster jobs report if the economy is slowing?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, even though it seemed impossible, the labor market is somehow getting tighter, said Rucha Vankudre, senior economist at business analytics firm Lightcast. “I think pretty much all the labor economists in the country this morning are shocked,” Vankudre said Friday during a webinar after the jobs report was released. The January jobs report shouldn’t trigger a wholesale change of what Fed members are thinking or what they were planning on doing before this report, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN. Strong labor market in a slowing economy? January’s jobs report came with added complexity, because it included annual updates to populations estimates and revisions to employer survey data.

☆ How the crypto fallout could affect you
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN Business —The crypto industry is still reeling from last week’s shocking death spiral of digital currency exchange FTX. While these funds say they had limited exposure to FTX, their inclusion points to a growing but alarming trend that could affect you even if you’re not a buyer of crypto yourself. What’s happening: Pension funds are increasingly investing in alternative assets in search of bigger returns. In the United States, public pension funds are facing serious challenges that threaten the retirement plans of millions of state and local government employees. It’s not just a trend that’s happening in the United States.

☆ The Fed may have to blow up the economy to get inflation under control
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Jobs report also on tapThe Fed meeting takes place just two days before the nation will get its next report card on the labor market. Another jobs report, from payroll processor ADP, is also due out next week, and this one looks just at Corporate America. The government said in the September jobs report that average hourly earnings rose 5% in the past 12 months. The Fed typically prefers to see wage growth in the 2% to 3% annual range as a sign that inflation is under control. Discovery, Starbucks (SBUX), PayPal (PYPL), Amgen (AMGN) and Block (SQ)Friday: US jobs report; earnings from Cardinal Health (CAH), Duke Energy (DUK) and Hershey (HSY)

☆ Forget a soft landing. The market’s best hope is a ‘growth’ recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

It wants to achieve a soft landing — that Goldilocks ideal of cooling the economy enough to bring down prices but not enough to cause a recession. The new aim appears to be for a so-called growth recession: A prolonged period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The pain is sharper and lasts longer than that of a soft landing, but a “growth” recession doesn’t pull the entire economy into contraction the way a proper recession would. It looks like a recession, and feels like a recession, but it isn’t a recession — at least not officially. A growth recession is still painful.

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