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☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai

☆ Policymakers see darker days ahead in China as growth sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Divya Chowdhury | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Policymakers expect persistently slower growth in China, perhaps even more sluggish than current consensus estimates, seeing its transition from an infrastructure- and investment-led economy to becoming consumption-driven as "difficult". "The inflation rate in China is around 0% - that means distortion of domestic demand and domestic supply," he said. This follows economic growth in 2022 recorded at one of its worst levels in nearly half a century. The Croatian central bank chief sees narrowing room for expansionary policies in China, adding, "We have to be careful." The RBNZ has already factored in "a pretty subdued period" for commodity prices within their projections, before they see them beginning to rise again, Hawkesby said.

Persons: Takahide Kiuchi, Goushi Kataoka, Boris Vujcic, Robert Holzmann, Christian Hawkesby, Hawkesby, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Lisa Mattackal, Mehnaz Yasmin, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Former Bank of Japan, Reuters Global Markets, European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, China, Europe, Croatian, Austrian, United States, Mumbai, Bengaluru

[1/2] AI (Artificial Intelligence) letters are placed on computer motherboard in this illustration taken June 23, 2023. Some have expressed concern that students might similarly rely on AI to produce work and effectively cheat - especially as AI content gets better with time. Passing off GenAI as original work could also raise copyright issues, prompting questions over whether AI should be banned in academia. It has provided that tool free to more than 10,000 education institutions globally, although it plans to charge a fee from January. So far, the AI detection tool has found that only 3% of students used AI for more than 80% of their submissions and that 78% did not use AI at all, Turnitin data shows.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, OpenAI, ChatGPT, Bard, Leif Kari, Rachel Forsyth, Sophie Constant, Stefania Giannini, Kirsten Rulf, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Lund, University of Western, University of Hong, Microsoft, Royal Institute of Technology, United Nations Educational, Cultural Organization, UNESCO, Strategic, Lund University, England's University of Oxford, Reuters, European Union, EU, Boston Consulting Group, Thomson Locations: STOCKHOLM, University of Western Australia, Perth, University of Hong Kong, Stockholm, Sweden, Britain, Singapore

But speaking on Wednesday, the last day before the ECB's self-imposed quiet period, the Dutch, French, German and Slovak central bank chiefs all said the Governing Council's decision was still open. France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that a fresh rate hike could still come at a later date and argued that the slowdown is not a recession and that the ECB needed to persevere in its fight with inflation. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, was more explicit, arguing that another hike was still needed to tame inflation. He said the ECB could delay a rate rise to one of its autumn meetings or pull the trigger next week. "It would be wrong to bet on a rapid decrease in interest rates after the peak," Nagel told German business daily Handelsblatt.

Persons: Nagel, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Peter Kazimir, Kazimir, Klaas Knot, Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Akanksha Khushi, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, PARIS, Slovak

☆ Reaching 2% inflation goal necessary for BOJ easy policy exit, says ex-board member Kataoka
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Divya Chowdhury | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will be able to gradually shift away from its easy monetary policy only after ensuring its 2% inflation goal has been sustainably achieved, former board member Goushi Kataoka said on Monday. Kataoka expected the Spring 2024 wage negotiations to be key for the BOJ's inflation mission, Kataoka, currently chief economist at PwC Japan, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Once it begins exiting policy, Kataoka expects the BOJ to first remove the peg on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield, then exit its negative interest rate policy, and finally scrap the YCC policy. "Allowing the guide rate to effectively go as low as 1% would not be possible until the 2% (inflation) target is achieved," Kataoka said. "I'm worried about the stance of Kishida cabinet," he said, describing the previous administrations' tax hikes in 2014 and 2019 as undermining the Kuroda's bold monetary policy experiment.

Persons: Goushi Kataoka, Kataoka, Haruhiko Kuroda, BOJ, I'm, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Anisha, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Mumbai, Bengaluru

☆ Full impact of Fed hikes still to be seen in real economy, ex-vice chair Blinder says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Lisa Pauline Mattackal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed has cumulatively raised its target rate by 525 basis points to 5.25%-5.50% over the last 17 months. "I think there's a lot more to be seen," Alan Blinder, Fed vice chairman between 1994 and 1996, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF). So against that, if it's three months or four months faster, that's not a big deal, and suggests there's still plenty to come," Blinder added. Blinder also said core inflation tends to react to monetary policy action at a slower pace than headline inflation, and that coupled with the transmission lags means the Fed should consider pausing rates for some time from here. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe 'last mile' of bringing inflation down may prove difficult for the Fed, Blinder said, adding that the central bank won't be "stubborn" if inflation settles somewhat above its stated 2% goal.

Persons: Alan Blinder, there's, Blinder, Lisa Mattackal, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Reuters Global Markets, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S . Federal, Bangalore, Mumbai

☆ Stubborn euro zone inflation fails to settle ECB rate debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The ECB has raised rates at its fastest pace on record in the past year, taking them to a more than two-decade high. "We still do not expect the Governing Council to raise key rates further at its September meeting." "The latest inflation figures raise the probability of a new increase in interest rates in September," Diego Iscaro at S&P Global Market Intelligence said. "However, this is far from a done deal, and a rapidly deteriorating economic background will still give doves in the ECB's Governing Council plenty of ammunition to argue for a pause." "This decline could counteract our efforts to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner."

Persons: Eric Gaillard, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Christoph Weil, Diego Iscaro, Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Thomson Locations: Nice, France, Austria's, ECB's, Frankfurt

A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. Interest rate futures are pricing in no change next week, but are nearly split over whether rates rise once more. In the latest poll, eight of 34 economists expect one more rate rise to 5.25% by the end of this year, compared with only one in a July poll. "We expect the Bank will hold the overnight rate steady at 5.00% through mid-2024 as the full impact of past rate hikes helps push the economy into a moderate recession. A scenario in which Canadian interest rates stay higher for longer could increase pressure on highly-indebted households, with almost 20% of Canadian mortgages due for renewal next year.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Claire Fan, Tony Stillo, We're, Sal Guatieri, BMO's Guatieri, Milounee Purohit, Prerana Bhat, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, BoC, Canada, RBC, Oxford Economics, U.S . Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Canadian

☆ Euro zone growth risks materialising, warranting ECB caution: Centeno
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The ECB is debating whether to raise rates again in September to combat stubborn underlying price growth or pause given the weakening outlook that is now raising recession fears. "We need to be very cautious about our decisions, because a lot has been done," Centeno told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "The labour market in Europe is performing in a novel way... I see a degree of flexibility in the European labour market that we were not used to see in the past," Centeno said. "This will ease wage pressures in our labour market, contrary to what we have [been used to] in the past."

Persons: Mario Centeno, Pedro Nunes, Centeno, Mehnaz Yasmin, Balazs Koranyi, Alison Williams, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank of Portugal, European Central Bank, Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Europe

☆ Privacy, market maturity hurdles facing Brazil's CBDC rollout -cenbank official
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Lisa Pauline Mattackal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Aug 29 (Reuters) - Maintaining privacy and increasing understanding of blockchain technology are primary issues to solve before Brazil's central bank digital currency (CBDC) is ready for widespread use, the central bank's coordinator of the project said on Tuesday. Named DREX, the digital real is set for a first phase launch aimed at financial institutions in May 2024, though postponed from an initial planned launch in February. "We need to ensure that the privacy is compatible with the law," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Market maturity is another important issue to solve as the central bank wants businesses to develop new use cases for the technology, Araujo said. The Atlantic Council says 130 countries are in some process of exploring a CBDC, with 21 in the pilot stage.

Persons: Fabio Araujo, Araujo, Lisa Mattackal, Divya Chowdhury, Marcela Ayers, Lincoln Organizations: Machine, Banco Central, Reuters Global Markets, Atlantic Council, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, Bangalore, Mumbai

Only one of 22 economists, or 5%, expected the BOJ to start unwinding its ultra-easy policy this year, the Aug 15-23 poll found, significantly down from 50% in a July survey. Four said the BOJ will start unwinding in January-March 2024, five chose April-June, six selected July-September and another six opted for October-December. A separate question showed 73% of economists expecting the BOJ to end YCC next year, up from 50% in July. A question about when the BOJ ends its negative short-term interest rate policy showed 41% of economists anticipating it in 2024, down from 54% in a May poll. Economists raised their projection for Japan's fiscal 2023 GDP growth to 1.8% from 1.1% in the previous poll.

Persons: Issei Kato, Takumi Tsunoda, YCC, Kazuo, Ueda, Hiroshi Namioka, Kantaro Komiya, Satoshi Sugiyama, Susobhan Sarkar, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, D, Management, U.S, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

Despite that, the latest Reuters poll narrowly showed Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, down from 5.75% predicted in July. All but one of 62 economists in the Aug. 16-23 poll expected Bank Rate to go up 25 basis points to 5.50% next month. The medians showed Bank Rate remaining on hold after September's hike until Q3 next year, though a significant minority - 47% or 29 of 62 economists - estimated a higher peak. That is a flip from a July poll when a slim majority, 51% or 31 of 61 participants, predicted Bank Rate at 5.75% or more by year-end. The wider poll showed inflation averaging 6.8% and 4.7% this quarter and next.

Persons: Luke MacGregor, BoE, James Smith, Simon Wells, Shaloo Shrivastava, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Rahul Trivedi, Purujit Arun, Ross Finley, John Stonestreet Organizations: of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Reserve, European Central Bank, HSBC, Thomson Locations: of England, London, BRITAIN, BENGALURU, LONDON, Western Europe

Men watch a screen displaying the Sensex results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, February 1, 2023. REUTERS/Niharika Kulkarni/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - India stocks will trade only modestly higher at year-end, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts who said a correction was likely before then, citing tightening global financial conditions as a risk. Driven by positive foreign and domestic investment inflows, the benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time high of 67,619.2 on July 20, up around 18% from the year's low of 57,084.9 set only four months earlier. Over 70% of analysts who answered an additional question, 21 of 29, said a correction - a decline of 10% or more - in the Indian equity market was likely by year-end, including five who said it was highly likely. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Sujith Pai; Polling by Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Rajat Agarwal, Devayani Sathyan, Sujith Pai, Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Monday's, Asia, U.S

A 90% majority, 99 of 110 economists, polled Aug 14-18 say the Fed will keep the federal funds rate in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting, in line with market pricing. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of 7.0% following 11 interest rate hikes from near-zero in early 2022. As recently as June, over a three-quarters majority of economists polled said the Fed would start by end-March. Another 33 respondents, roughly 35%, forecast the Fed will go for its first rate cut in Q2, leaving 79 of 95, or 83% expecting at least one rate cut by mid-2024. That would help price pressures decline over the coming months, making the fed funds rate adjusted for inflation - the real interest rate - more restrictive if held unchanged.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Sal Guatieri, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Pranoy Krishna, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru

Alchemation, known for the international hit "SIX," is among an increasingly established presence of musical theatre at the Fringe, which takes over the Scottish capital for the month of August. The company's "Hello Kitty Must Die," based on the novel by Hong Kong-born, U.S.-based writer Kate Kamen (formerly Angela S. Choi) is playing at Edinburgh's Pleasance until Aug. 27. It transferred to London's West End, where it was spotted by Alchemation, which took it to Broadway and beyond. It is the first time one of its diversity grants has supported a musical as the genre cements its presence. The Pleasance alone has 16 musicals this year, its most yet, it said, out of roughly 140 across the Fringe as a whole.

Persons: Lucas McMahon, Kitty, Kate Kamen, Angela S, Choi, Edinburgh's Pleasance, Anthony Alderson, Henry VIII, Alderson, Levi Roots, Ray Shell, Barbara Lewis, Sarah Mills, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Edinburgh Fringe, SIX, Scottish, Reuters, Edinburgh's, Pleasance Theatre Trust, Broadway, Thomson Locations: York, Hong Kong, U.S, Edinburgh, Cambridge, New York, London

☆ ECB to pause in September, say slim majority of economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

There have been nine consecutive ECB rate rises since July 2022. In the poll 37 - or 53% - of 70 economists predict no move at the Sept 14 meeting compared with 47% in last month's poll, which would mean the ECB leaving its deposit rate at 3.75%, in line with market pricing. The poll also showed 53% expecting a deposit rate rise to 4.00% sometime this year, with 33 economists saying September, and four October or December. While markets are priced for a roughly 60% chance of a pause in September, they are split for year-end, with just over a 50% probability of a 4.00 deposit rate by then. However, inflation setbacks could still force a rate hike later this year," said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, bloc's, Lagarde, Bas van Geffen, Michael Kirker, Prerana Bhat, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Sarupya Ganguly, John Stonestreet Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Rabobank, spillovers, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Ukraine, European

☆ Wall St shares pare losses after choppy trading as yields spike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | Thomson Reuters | Delevingne Works Primarily On Enterprise Stories Related To Finance. He Joined Reuters In | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street investors weighed another rise in Treasury yields with the latest batch of economic data and earnings. U.S. long-term Treasury yields hit nine-month highs on Thursday after employment and other economic data pointed to easing inflation, maintaining their high levels in the afternoon. EURO SHARES DOWNEuropean shares (.STOXX) slipped 0.6%, the third straight day of losses, bruised by disappointing earnings reports and elevated U.S. bond yields. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2%, extending losses after a drop of 2.3% a day earlier. Spot gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,934 an ounce, held in check by a robust dollar and elevated bond yields.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, BoE, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Sterling, Stuart Cole, Morgan Stanley, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Jonathan Oatis, Will Dunham, Alexander Smith Organizations: Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall Street, Nasdaq, TD Securities, Reuters Global, . Labor Department, FTSE, Bank of England, Equiti, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Saudi, Boston, London, Sydney

☆ Australia holds rates steady, might be done tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets had leaned toward a steady outcome given recent data showed inflation had eased for a second quarter and consumer spending was softening. However, economists were more split on the outcome, with 20 out of 36 polled by Reuters expecting a hike. Swaps now implied a risk of around 13 basis points of tightening by year end. In a relief for policymakers, headline inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter while retail sales posted their biggest fall this year in June. "While the RBA retains a tightening bias, we expect the hurdle to another rate hike is high.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Michele Bullock, Belinda Allen, Goldman Sachs, Hebe Chen, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Anisha Sircar, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CBA, National Australia Bank, IG, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson

☆ Bank of England rates set to peak at 5.75% by year-end: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will raise its Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 5.25% on August 3, making borrowing the costliest since early 2008, and hike twice more by the year-end as price pressures persist, a Reuters poll showed. While the median peak rate forecast was 5.75%, nearly half of respondents, 29 of 61, still said 5.50%, the same as a June 26 poll. As recently as a June 14 poll, the consensus was for Bank Rate to peak at 5.00%. Predictions for Bank Rate at year-end were in a wide range. Asked where core inflation will be at year-end, nearly two thirds of respondents, 14 of 22, said slightly lower.

Persons: BoE, Bruce Kasman, Morgan, Stefan Koopman, Shaloo Shrivastava, Mumal Rathore, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Bank of England, Bank, Company, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, J.P, British

☆ India's economy to hold top spot for GDP but not so much for jobs growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The world's most populous country aspires to leapfrog to the status of a developed nation, riding on the unprecedented demographic dividend, which demands an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of around 8% for the next 25 years. It was forecast to grow 6.5% next fiscal year, with expectations of 6.2% growth this quarter, followed by 6.0% and 5.5%. "I think 6.0% to 6.5% is a very achievable and a very conservative forecast for India's growth trajectory," Nim added. The remaining six said the PLI scheme, which allocated billions of rupees as incentives from the Union budget in 2023-24, will have no impact. While India has a lot more ground to cover to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub, some economists acknowledged the PLI scheme was a step in the right direction.

Persons: Dhiraj Nim, Nim, Ajay Banga, Radhika Piplani, PLI, Piplani, Suman Chowdhury, Milounee Purohit, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: ANZ Research, World, Capital Advisors, Union, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, People's Republic, India

Inflation is falling, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. The current debate is whether more rate increases might be needed to ensure "disinflation" continues or if doing more could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Core PCE was last reported at 3.8% for May. But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest. A slight majority of economists who answered an additional question, 14 of 23, said wage inflation would be the most sticky component of core inflation.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jan Nevruzi, Doug Porter, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, NatWest Markets, PCE, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S

☆ China's Q2 GDP seen rising 7.3% y/y but on low base, recovery fades: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economic growth is likely to slow to 4.8% in the third quarter and 5.3% in the fourth, with full-year growth expected to reach 5.5%, the poll showed. China's central bank on Monday extended until the end of 2024 some policies which were unveiled in a November rescue package to shore up the real estate sector, including loan repayment extensions for developers. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points in the third quarter, while keeping benchmark lending rates steady. The central bank cut the RRR - the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves - in March. But the central bank is likely to be wary of cutting lending rates further.

Persons: it's, Zhang Yiping, Li Qiang, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Kim Coghill Organizations: Beijing, Reuters, Gross, China Merchants Securities, stoke, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Bengaluru, Shanghai

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates in May but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, pollled, Nick Tuffley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reuters, ANZ, ASB, Bank of New, Kiwibank, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of New Zealand

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