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☆ Bullock takes over at Australia central bank with soft landing in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Public Lecture at the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia, August 29, 2023 in this handout image. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been on hold for three months after raising interest rates aggressively for more than a year. The tightening has slowed Australia's growth, but analysts think the economy could still achieve a soft landing. If Australia avoids recession and delivers a soft landing, history may judge outgoing Governor Philip Lowe more kindly. In the search to replace Bullock as deputy, Chalmers has indicated the government is looking at candidates inside and outside the central bank.

Persons: Michele Bullock, Leslie Melville, Tracey Nearmy, Bullock, it's, Cherelle Murphy, Philip Lowe, Lowe, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Stephen Halmarick, Stella Qiu, William Mallard Organizations: Australian National University, ANU, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, EY Oceania, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Canberra, Australia, Handout, New Zealand, Germany, Europe's, COVID

☆ Australia Q2 business investment hits highest in 7-1/2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central business district (CBD) of Melbourne can be seen from the area located along the Yarra River called Southbank located in Melbourne, Australia, July 27, 2016. Spending of A$37.58 billion ($24.43 billion) was the highest since late 2015, while investment in equipment reached a record peak of A$17.53 billion. Firms also lifted spending plans for the fiscal year to June 2024 to A$157.8 billion, up 14.5% on the previous quarter. Figures for gross domestic product (GDP) for the June quarter are due next week and analysts are tipping growth of only around 0.3%. ($1 = 1.5370 Australian dollars)Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: David Gray, Nomura, Andrew Ticehurst, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Investors, Thomson Locations: Melbourne, Southbank, Australia

☆ Australia July jobs take a surprise fall as market loosens
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A worker pushes a trolley loaded with goods past a construction site in the central business district (CBD) of Sydney in Australia, March 15, 2018. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Australia employment unexpectedly fell in July to end two months of very strong growth, while the jobless rate ticked higher in a sign the drum-tight labour market might finally be loosening. "Even so, the deterioration in the labour market has a long way to run before the RBA can completely relax." The labour market has proved remarkably resilient with 399,000 net jobs added in the 12 months to July even as interest rates have climbed 400 basis points to a decade-high of 4.1%. "It is getting harder to argue for a sustained lift in wage inflation momentum," said Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac.

Persons: David Gray, Ben Udy, Justin Smirk, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS, Oxford Economics Australia, Westpac, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Aussie set for biggest one-day drop since March, yen at 3-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.6626, wiping out the 0.87% gains it clocked in July and set for its sharpest daily drop since March. "I think it was right that the RBA held today, given trimmed mean inflation and unemployment matched the RBA's forecasts. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0975, not too far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, City, Federal, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Australia holds rates steady, might be done tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets had leaned toward a steady outcome given recent data showed inflation had eased for a second quarter and consumer spending was softening. However, economists were more split on the outcome, with 20 out of 36 polled by Reuters expecting a hike. Swaps now implied a risk of around 13 basis points of tightening by year end. In a relief for policymakers, headline inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter while retail sales posted their biggest fall this year in June. "While the RBA retains a tightening bias, we expect the hurdle to another rate hike is high.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Michele Bullock, Belinda Allen, Goldman Sachs, Hebe Chen, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Anisha Sircar, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CBA, National Australia Bank, IG, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson

☆ Australia's central bank leaves rates unchanged at 4.1%
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 4.1% for a second month on Tuesday as the central bank buys time to assess the impact of previous hikes, while warning of further hikes in the future. Economists were divided on whether the Australian central bank would raise interest rates at this meeting, with a slim majority expecting a 25-basis point hike. "The higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so," Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement. "In light of this and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the Board again decided to hold interest rates steady this month. This will provide further time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook," he added.

Persons: Philip Lowe Organizations: Opera, The Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Sydney, Australia, Australian

☆ Slowing Australia Q2 inflation lessens rate hike pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the first quarter, inflation was at 1.4%. That was balanced by a sharp fall in goods inflation, which slowed to an annual rate of 5.8% from 7.6% the quarter before. Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ, said both headline and trimmed mean inflation are tracking below the RBA's forecast for the second quarter. "(The data) highlight that a 4.1% cash rate may be restrictive enough to bring inflation down. The RBA has warned that some further tightening may be required to bring inflation to heel.

Persons: Robert Carnell, Carnell, Adelaide Timbrell, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Wednesday, ING, ANZ, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific

☆ Australia jobs jump again, heaping pressure on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The jobless rate held at a downwardly revised 3.5%, when analysts had expected 3.6%, leaving it just above the 3.4% trough from October last year. Markets moved to priced in a 42% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would resume hiking rates in August, compared with 35% before the jobs data. Incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock has said the jobless rate would need to rise to about 4.5% to curb inflation. "The hotter-than-expected jobs numbers... leave no room whatsoever for an upside surprise in next Wednesday's Q2 CPI data. However, pressure on the RBA to keep pace with its overseas counterparts on rate hikes has eased somewhat in recent weeks.

Persons: Michele Bullock, Tony Sycamore, Marcel Thieliant, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Incoming, IG, Capital Economics, Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Australia

☆ Australia's central bank loses chief to public ire over rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Lowe's dedication to the bank is not in doubt, having joined straight from school in 1980. The first mainly impacted markets while the second, and more fateful, soured sentiment with the public and politicians. A later review found the event had caused the bank "reputational damage" and the policy was unlikely to be used again. Lowe's mistake in 2021 was to be too specific on timing by repeatedly saying rates were unlikely to rise until 2024. With prices rising rapidly, Lowe was forced to reverse course and hike rates in May, a whole two years earlier than forecast.

Persons: Philip Lowe it's, Lowe, I'm, we'd, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, MIT, Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Australia, Lincoln

☆ RBA's Lowe says it remains to be seen if more tightening needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Speaking in Brisbane, Lowe said there has been a "significant and rapid" tightening and the rate-setting policy board is very conscious that policy operates with a lag, with the full effects yet to be felt. "It takes time for households and businesses to adjust their spending and investment plans, and there are still significant resets of low fixed-rate loans to come," said Lowe. Markets expect that the central bank may have to hike two more times to tame inflation. "Whether or not this (further tightening) is required will depend on how the economy and inflation evolve," Lowe said. From 2024, the RBA will meet eight times a year, compared with 11 times currently, with meetings set to last longer than currently, Lowe said.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Jim Chalmers, Stella Qiu, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Edmund Klamann Organizations: SYDNEY, The Reserve Bank of Australia, SEA, Thomson Locations: Brisbane

☆ Australia markets in the dark as clock ticks down on govt choice of RBA chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are still in the dark whether Treasurer Jim Chalmers will reappoint Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe or bow to public pressure for a new pair of hands at an institution that stumbled over its policy messaging during the pandemic. "Markets would be more concerned if there wasn't that list," noted Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital. They are among the front runners in part because there is much pressure for Chalmers to appoint the first female head of the RBA. One dark horse also being mentioned is Guy Debelle, a former RBA deputy governor who resigned last year to join the green energy business of mining billionaire Andrew Forrest. It is possible Chalmers could reappoint Lowe for a shorter period to see out the RBA's current tightening cycle and planned changes in its operation and structure.

Persons: missteps, Jim Chalmers, Philip Lowe, Chalmers, Lowe, Shane Oliver, Michele Bullock, Jenny Wilkinson, Guy Debelle, Andrew Forrest, reappoint Lowe, AMP's Oliver, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Chalmers, Markets, AMP, Thomson

☆ Asian shares fall on growth concerns, focus shifts to Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.2%. Australia's resources heavy shares (.AXJO) fell 0.2% after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady on Tuesday but warned of more tightening ahead. However, shares of some Chinese makers of products used to make chips rallied as supply concerns sent prices of the metals higher. "It now seems the thesis has evolved, and the market wants to see strong job creation, conditional on subdued wage growth." Brent crude futures fell 0.6% to $75.78 a barrel after climbing 2.1% overnight.

Persons: HSI, Andrew McCaffery, Janet Yellen, Chris Weston, Brent, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, SYDNEY, Federal, Day, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fidelity International, Traders, Reuters, Australian, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, US, Beijing, Washington, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia

July 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Traders will also have Japanese, Australian and Indian services PMIs to digest, as well as the latest inflation data from Thailand and the Philippines, and can expect trading volume to return to more normal levels after the July 4 U.S. holiday. Service sector activity, however, has held up reasonably well and has expanded every month this year, according to the PMI data. This comes ahead of a planned visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen, Alistair Bell Organizations: Service, PMI, U.S, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, PMIs, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Thailand, Philippines, Beijing, Tokyo, Japan, China, India, Australia

☆ Yen steady, markets on intervention alert; Aussie up before RBA decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This is sending signals that a coordinated intervention may be coming as yen continues to hover above 144 per dollar," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets. "A coordinated intervention usually has a longer lasting impact on the yen than a unilateral intervention would have." RBA WATCHThe focus in Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). "We estimate that a hike would push up Aussie modestly by 0.8% so long as the post‑meeting statement was not dovish. The Australian dollar was at $0.668, up 0.16% against the U.S. dollar, while the New Zealand dollar was also up 0.16% at $0.616.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Charu, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Saxo Markets, Bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S . Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Australian, U.S ., New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, U.S, United States, U.S ., Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Zuckerberg takes on Musk; RBA stands pat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Musk and Facebook parent Meta CEO Zuckerberg have been egging each other into a mixed martial arts cage match in Las Vegas, with both billionaires trading jabs (online) last month. Beyond Silicon Valley, markets seem content to take it easy with a light data calendar and a U.S. holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) inched higher, the dollar was firm, while the oil prices were steady. Since then, the yen has stayed below 145 but remains perilously close enough to keep markets nervy. The Reserve Bank of Australia chose to stand pat on interest rates after data last week showed consumer inflation slowed to a 13-month low in May.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Sam Holmes Organizations: Ankur, Facebook, Investors, U.S, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Independence, Thomson Locations: Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Singapore

☆ Australia's central bank leaves its key rate unchanged, says inflation 'passed its peak'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

David Gray | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesAustralia's central bank held its official cash rate steady at 4.10% in a closely watched decision Tuesday. Economists were split on expectations ahead of the decision, with 16 out of 31 respondents surveyed by Reuters forecasting a hike of 25 basis points and 15 expecting the central bank to hold. Stocks cheered the move as the central bank said inflation in the economy has "passed its peak." He added that the central bank will continue to closely monitor developments in the global economy, household spending trends and inflation forecasts. The central bank's decision to hold rates steady was to "assess" the effects of the multiple rate hikes so far, according to IG's Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore.

Persons: David Gray, Stocks, RBA, Philip Lowe, Lowe, Tony Sycamore, —, Sycamore Organizations: Sydney Opera House, Getty, Reuters, U.S ., Australia Bureau, Statistics, CNBC Locations: Australia

☆ Yen steady, markets on intervention alert, Aussie up before RBA decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen nudged up on Tuesday but remained vulnerable to more weakness, hovering near the key 145 per dollar level as markets were on alert for signs of intervention, while the Australian dollar moved up ahead of a central bank policy decision. "This is sending signals that a coordinated intervention may be coming as yen continues to hover above 144 per dollar," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets. "A coordinated intervention usually has a longer lasting impact on the yen than a unilateral intervention would have." The focus in Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA. The Australian dollar was at $0.668, up 0.16% against the U.S. dollar, while the New Zealand dollar was also up 0.16% at $0.616.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Charu, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Saxo Markets, Bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S . Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Australian, U.S ., New Zealand Locations: Japan, U.S, United States, U.S .

[1/2] Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. Interest rate swaps markets are only attaching a one-in-three probability of a hike, and around a two-in-three likelihood of no move. In another Reuters poll, economists said they expect annual consumer price inflation in South Korea to have slowed in June to 2.85% from 3.30%. Figures on Monday showed that factory activity in South Korea shrank for a record 12th consecutive month in June. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia interest rate decision- South Korea inflation (June)- Germany trade balance (May)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: David Gray, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, U.S, Investors, Japan, Wall, Traders, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Sydney, Australia, U.S, Asia, South Korea, Korea, Germany

☆ Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4, decision on a knife edge, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. "We don't think a pause in July will reduce the total number of cash rate hikes the Reserve Bank needs to do. Among major local banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac expected a hike on Tuesday while CBA predicted no move. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Taylor Nugent, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of, ANZ, Bank, NAB, Westpac, CBA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia

☆ RBA to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4 but decision on a knife edge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Of the remaining, 13 saw rates at 4.35% and one expected no change from 4.10%. That was 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken after the June meeting. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

☆ Australia eyes bigger budget surplus but warns economy still slowing
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Renju Jose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, June 28 (Reuters) - Australia's budget surplus for 2022/23 will be bigger than the A$4.2 billion ($2.81 billion) projected in the May budget but high inflation and global challenges will "significantly slow" the domestic economy, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday. "I can reveal that we're expecting the surplus will be bigger than forecast in May," Chalmers said in a speech to the Property Council of Australia. Australia's Labor government in May boasted the first budget surplus in 15 years for the year to June 2023, a huge turnaround from the A$37 billion shortfall forecast last October. "We expect (inflation) to stay higher than we'd like, for longer than we'd like, but still tracking in the right direction," Chalmers said. ($1 = 1.4963 Australian dollars)Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Renju Jose, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Property Council of Australia, Labor, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Australian, Sydney

☆ Australia's central bank hiked rates for fear inflation was becoming entrenched
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, June 20 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank's decision to hike interest rates in June was "finely balanced" but judged necessary to ensure high inflation did not become embedded in wage and price expectations. "Members recognised the strength of both sets of arguments, concluding that the arguments were finely balanced," the minutes showed. Low productivity and rising wages was a particular worry, with the board noting that a recent national award for low-paid workers had been higher than expected. "Members discussed the possibility of implicit indexation of wages to past high inflation and the potential for this to become widespread," the minutes showed. This behaviour raised the risk that inflation would not return to the RBA's 2-3% target band in a "reasonable timeframe", the minutes showed.

Persons: Wayne Cole Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson

☆ Australia May employment blows past expectations, piling pressure on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bond yield curve, which was already inverted to signal risks of a recession, inverted further after the jobs report, with the spread between ten-year and three-year government bond yields turning negative. "The labour market remains very tight, which will contribute to stronger wage growth over 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone following the June rate rise, expressing concerns over the persistence of underlying inflation. Job advertisements were mostly steady in May after three months of declines and remained 52% above pre-COVID levels. Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Langcake, Langcake, Philip Lowe, Stella Qiu, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sonali Paul Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Oxford Economics Australia

☆ Australian businesses, consumers at risk of sharp slowdown ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"There is a growing risk that the RBA's attempts to maintain an even keel 'run aground,'" said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster. The survey, however, pointed to persistent price pressures, with the measure of labour costs and purchase costs accelerating, in a concern for the RBA. NAB on Tuesday raised its call on peak rates in the current cycle, adding two more quarter-point hikes to 4.6%. Markets are now pricing the risk of two more hikes, and see rates staying elevated for the remainder of the year. CONSUMERS UNDER THE PUMPData from Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) also points to the strains consumers are feeling as high living costs and surging mortgage rates erode spending power.

Persons: Alan Oster, Bill Evans, Belinda Allen, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Jamie Freed Organizations: NAB, RBA Westpac, SYDNEY, National Australia Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Melbourne Institute, CBA, Thomson

☆ Australia recession risk heightens after RBA warns of bumpy path to low inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For a year, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has been talking of successfully navigating a narrow path to lower inflation while keeping unemployment near 50-year lows. He expects quarterly growth to average just a 0.1% over the next four quarters, with a 50% chance that the economy would enter a recession. Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at investment firm Challenger and a former RBA executive, says the risk of trying to hold on to job gains was that higher inflation expectations hardened and kept the actual inflation rate high. And pushing rates higher is increasing the chance that Australia goes into a recession," said Kearns, who headed the RBA's domestic markets department until earlier this year. A survey of union officials cited by Lowe showed that medium-term inflation expectations have risen to a 3-4% range.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's, Bloxham, Jonathan Kearns, Kearns, Ivan Colhoun, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: CBA, HSBC, SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Global Commodities, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Challenger, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand

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