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Here's what five forecasters have to say about the latest rally — and why they think the stock market is headed for a fall. In 2009, he wrote a book predicting a stock market crash and ensuing economic depression, which he said could last for 10 years or more. The research firm is predicting the S&P 500 could see a steep correction following a rally to 6,500. Yet, that could end up being an excellent opportunity for investors who are diversified in other areas of the market, Bernstein said. AdvertisementTypically, there are eight warning signs of a market bubble forming, and six of them have already flashed, the bank said.
Persons: Stocks, , haven't, Harry Dent Stocks, Harry Dent, Dent, John Higgins, Higgins, John Hussman, Hussman, Richard Bernstein, Bernstein Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Fox Business Network, Stocks, Capital Economics, John Hussman Elite, UBS
The first half of the year has generally been good for the market, with the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq repeatedly reaching record highs. Year-to-date, the S & P 500 is up around 13% and the Nasdaq has risen 14.9%. Against that uncertain backdrop, investors might be looking at exchange-traded funds or mutual funds to diversify their investments. Morningstar provided the list of top-performing funds, which all beat the S & P 500. Using FactSet, that list was screened for funds that analysts give 10% or more upside, and that at least half give a buy rating.
Persons: Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Morningstar, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CNBC Pro, Copper Miners, X Copper Miners, Industrial, Richard Bernstein Advisors Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, Turkey
The stock market's leaders are overvalued and could suffer a big correction, RBA's Richard Bernstein said. The RBA chief investment officer pointed to a discrepancy between the debt and equity markets, which could hint at a soon-to-come market correction. But, only a narrow group of stocks are dominating the equity market, which implies profits aren't expanding for most companies. While large-cap stocks tanked during the lost decade of the 2000s, small-cap, energy, and emerging market stocks did exceedingly well. In a previous note, he said the stock market's shifting leadership from the most-hyped names to underloved equities presents once-in-a-generation opportunity for investors.
Persons: RBA's Richard Bernstein, , Richard Bernstein, Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research Bernstein, Russell Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Apollo, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research, Nasdaq
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at the central bank's building in Sydney, Australia on May 2, 2022. Asia-Pacific markets are mixed on Wednesday as the Nasdaq Composite hit another new record high on Wall Street to surpass 17,000 for the first time, powered by a 7% gain in tech darling Nvidia. Investors will be assessing Australia's inflation numbers for April, with the weighted inflation rate expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.5% in March. Two more, and we may consider adding a rate hike." The Australian S&P/ASX 200 started the day down 0.29%, ahead of the CPI announcement.
Organizations: Bank of Australia, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Investors, ING, [ Reserve Bank of Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, [ Reserve Bank of Australia
Recent reports indicate that Australian home prices are set to continue their upward trend, driven by increasing migration rates and a shortage of housing supply. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to deliver the budget on Tuesday, which is expected to focus on addressing the nation's housing crisis. The Albanese government has already said it plans to allocate 88.8 million Australian dollars ($58.7 million) to train 20,000 local workers for the construction and housing sector. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) said Australia's limited housing supply has been further stretched by a number of factors, including "the resumption of migration at pace, rising interest rates, skills shortages, elevated construction company insolvencies, weak consumer confidence and cost inflation." She also said high housing prices have "ugly" long-term effects.
Persons: Andrew Merry, Eliza Owen, Jim Chalmers, Albanese, Peter Dutton, Owen, CoreLogic's Owen Organizations: Australia, Reserve Bank, Australian Bureau, Statistics, CoreLogic, ABS, Housing Supply, Authorities, Australian Bureau of Statistics Locations: North Bondi, Sydney, Australia, CoreLogic Australia
Yen eases despite intervention threat, Aussie steady before RBA
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen continued to drift lower against the dollar on Tuesday as gaping interest rate differentials weighed on the currency, despite fresh warnings from Japanese officials following two rounds of suspected dollar-selling intervention last week. The U.S. dollar gained 0.22% to 154.235 yen in early Asian trading, adding to its 0.58% rally from Monday. The Aussie edged up 0.17% to $0.6636, heading back towards the high of $0.6650 from Friday, a level last seen on March 8. All but one of the 37 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll expect the RBA to keep rates on hold, with the other predicting a quarter point rate hike, amid stubbornly high inflation. "A different set of central bankers would have had the policy rate higher sooner on the same set of data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note.
Persons: Michele Bullock, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, Bullock, Taylor Nugent Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, The U.S ., Bank of Japan, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of, National Australia Bank Locations: The, Japan
In Asia, investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia decision on rates as the bank concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA to hold its benchmark lending rate at 4.35% for its fourth meeting in a row. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.23% ahead of the decision, on course to gain for a fourth straight day. South Korea's Kospi popped 1.6% as trading resumed after a public holiday, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.08%. Japan's Nikkei 225 also resumed trading after a holiday to rise 0.96%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.61%.
Persons: Australia's Organizations: Opera, Vivid, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Nikkei Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific
China's and Australia's flags are seen on the tables where China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong held their bilateral meeting at Parliament House in Canberra on March 20, 2024. Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street gains on Monday as a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates soon. Investors, meanwhile, awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision on Tuesday and China's April trade data on Thursday. ING said in a note last week that the RBA meeting was "worth watching closely," adding that recent inflation data from Australia showed growth in prices was starting to accelerate. However, the analysts said Australia's inflation data was better than they had expected, and compared to the US, the country's economy had slowed more with the labor market softening substantially.
Persons: Wang Yi, Penny Wong Organizations: House, Wall, Federal Reserve, Investors, Reserve Bank, ING, Global Locations: Canberra, Asia, Pacific, Australia, Hong Kong, China, India, Japan, South
Markets wary of intervention as yen struggles at 155 level
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Having traded in a tight range over the past few days, a buoyant dollar finally broke above the 155 yen level for the first time since 1990 in the previous session, and was last steady at 155.34 yen in early Asia trade. The breach of the 155 yen level comes as the BOJ meets to discuss monetary policy, though expectations are for the central bank to keep its short-term interest rate target unchanged following last month's landmark exit from negative rates. "We expect the BOJ meeting to deliver a marginally hawkish hold outcome," said Carl Ang, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. Continued expectations of gradual policy tightening and a low terminal policy rate make it difficult for the yen to appreciate significantly, even if at historically depressed levels." The dollar steadied at 105.79 against a basket of currencies, pulling away from a nearly two-week low hit in the previous session.
Persons: Carl Ang, Kazuo Ueda, Justin Smirk Organizations: Bank of Japan, MFS Investment Management, Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia building in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, Sept. 6, 2021. Australia's central bank intends to change the way it provides liquidity to the banking system, moving to one that provides ample liquidity through regular money market operations. Australia's central bank intends to change the way it provides liquidity to the banking system, moving to one that provides ample liquidity through regular money market operations. In a speech on the plumbing of monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said the central bank would end its current system of setting a floor for rates with excess reserves and an exchange settlement, or ES, rate. "Under the ample reserves system, the supply of reserves can rise and fall in line with changes in demand, with minimal effects on the cash rate and other money market rates," Kent said.
Persons: Christopher Kent, Kent Organizations: Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Sydney, Australia, Australia's
The "US industrial renaissance" will be the top investment theme of the coming decade, Richard Bernstein Advisors said. The trend of American companies shifting away from dependence on foreign labor and supply chains should dominate investment strategies in the coming decades the firm said. "The market is already rewarding the beneficiaries of this capital reallocation, but we expect years, if not decades, of further performance from this critical investment theme," RBA president Richard Bernstein said in a note this week. For the US, that means big investment in infrastructure on manufacturing will be needed in the coming years as the world reorients. "The market has already recognized the re-industrialization investment theme despite investors' myopia with respect to more exciting technology-related themes, like artificial intelligence.
Persons: Richard Bernstein, Overreliance, Bernstein, Organizations: Richard Bernstein Advisors, Service, Republicans Locations: America
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Asia-Pacific markets were set to fall ahead of central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia. All eyes will be on the BOJ amid expectations that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy after 17 years. Economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to raise its rates to 0% from the current -0.1%. Separately, the RBA is forecast to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for its third meeting in a row.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific
Yen holds nerve as BOJ decision looms; dollar resurgent
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The yen was last little changed at 149.14 per dollar, while the Australian dollar fell 0.06% $0.6556. Against the euro, the yen steadied at 162.18, with the Japanese currency likewise little changed against the Aussie at 97.78. So BOJ's decisions generally are, as far as the yen is concerned, a matter of secondary importance," said Berry. "Holding policy rates steady and policy guidance broadly unchanged seems like a reasonably straightforward decision in the presence of high uncertainty," said Carl Ang, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. The New Zealand dollar was similarly pinned near Monday's two-week low and last bought $0.6079.
Persons: Gareth Berry, It's, they're, it's, Berry, Carl Ang, Sterling, , Goldman Sachs, David Mericle Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Aussie, Nikkei, Macquarie, Federal Reserve, MFS Investment Management, U.S ., New Zealand Locations: Bath, England, Asia, Japan, United States, Down, Australia, Monday's
EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.
Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia
Lamp posts in front of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) building in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open ahead of the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia later Tuesday. Twenty-nine economists polled by Reuters unanimously expect the RBA to hold rates at 4.35%. In Japan, household spending dipped more than expected in December, falling 2.5% year on year compared with the 2.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. The Bank of Japan has said sustainable wage increases are one of the prerequisites for unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy.
Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Bank of Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Bank of Japan
Dollar firms near 3-month high as rate cut bets dwindle
  + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar was perched near a three-month peak on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated Treasury yields, on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates aggressively this year. The U.S. dollar was perched near a three-month peak on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated Treasury yields, on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates aggressively this year. The string of robust U.S. economic data has quashed any lingering hopes of early and steep interest rate cuts by the Fed, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers also pushing back against the notion. Figures showed that the unemployment rate was likely much lower late last year than previously thought, which could push out rate cuts there, too. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.07% to 148.56 per dollar, hovering around a two-month low of 148.90 it touched on Monday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Wong, Michele Bullock, Kristina Clifton Organizations: U.S, Federal, Investor, Reserve Bank of Australia, Investors, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Singapore, Asia
Morning Bid: RBA holds and the dollar pauses, too
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets are pricing in bigger rate cuts by the Fed next year than by any other major or emerging market central bank. But will the Fed cut rates by 125 basis points next year? Doubts about that prospect have for now put the brakes on dollar selling. Gold , which shot to a record high in Asia's notoriously thin morning hours on Monday, has recoiled sharply.
Persons: David Gray, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Bank, Aussie, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, U.S, Europe, Tokyo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAustralia is six months behind the rest of the world in the inflation fight: NABAlan Oster of NAB says that the RBA will only consider reducing interest rates "in the back end of next year".
Persons: NAB Alan Oster Organizations: Australia, NAB
Two women walk next to the Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in central Sydney, Australia February 6, 2018. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday as expected, buying it more time to assess the state of the economy and to determine whether further hikes might be needed next year. Wrapping up its December policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%, adding economic data received since November had been broadly in line with expectations. "Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market," RBA Governor Michele Bullock said. She has since warned that inflation has become increasingly driven by domestic demand, requiring a more "substantial" response from interest rates.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia
A worker is reflected in a wall of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) head office in central Sydney, Australia, March 1, 2016. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets have the Fed cutting rates next year more than any major or emerging market central bank. And even if the Fed does go that far, other central banks are sure to lower their policy rates more than markets are currently predicting. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia interest rate decision- Japan - Tokyo inflation (November)- South Korea inflation (November)By Jamie McGeever Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: David Gray, Michele Bowman's, Philip Lowe, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Reserve Bank of, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Asia, masse, Tokyo
Dec 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. Many will argue that the U.S. bond and rates markets have gotten far too carried away, and that the Fed will not ease so quickly and aggressively next year. But Fed policymakers are now in their 'blackout period' ahead of the December 12-13 policy meeting. In stark contrast to the Fed, rates futures markets are barely pricing in any rate cuts from the RBA next year at all.
Persons: Wall, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Treasury, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea
IBM, which decades ago helped lead the shift from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans, recently told U.S. employees it will be scrapping its 401(k) match in favor of funding what it calls a "retirement benefit account." Starting next year, IBM will no longer provide a 5% match and a 1% automatic contribution into an employee's 401(k). IBM says the change adds a stable and predictable benefit to employees and helps diversity their retirement portfolios. "Under the plan, IBM bears 100 percent of the risk and must be prepared to pay the benefit at time of employee separation," IBM said in a statement. "Other companies may not have structure to pull off this type of change," said Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at the Employee Benefit Research Institute.
Persons: Craig Copeland Organizations: IBM, Treasury, Finance, Research Institute Locations: New York
For the month, CPI fell 0.3%, driven by declines in petrol, rent and holiday travel. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rose an annual 5.3% in October, easing from 5.4% the previous month. "It's hard to find bad news in Australia's October inflation print," said Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Prices for tradable goods fell 1.6% in October from a month earlier. It also left the door open to further tightening if necessary to meet its annual inflation target of 2-3%.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, Harry Murphy Cruise, Jonathan Kearns, Wayne Cole, Stella Qiu, Lincoln, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Australian Bureau, Statistics, Moody’s, Reserve Bank Board, Reserve Bank of Australia, Challenger, Thomson Locations: Australia
The Australian dollar held near a four-month peak while the New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495 in early Asia trade. Australian inflation data is due later in the day, followed by a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The dollar index was eyeing a nearly 4% loss for November, its worst monthly performance in a year. "We have become less constructive on the prospects for the U.S. dollar, as progress in reducing U.S. inflation suggests the risks are tilted toward earlier rather than later Fed easing," said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. Sterling last bought $1.27105, hovering near the previous session's roughly three-month high of $1.2715.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Capital.com's Rodda, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Fed, U.S ., Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Wells
Women shop for clothes on a store in a shopping mall in Sydney's central business district (CBD) Australia, February 5, 2018. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales unexpectedly slipped in October as consumers cut back on everything but food, though analysts believe many were merely saving some money to splurge on Black Friday sales that took place this month. Retail sales fell 0.2% from September to A$35.77 billion, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Tuesday. "This is a pattern we have seen develop in recent years as Black Friday sales grow in popularity." Data from e-commerce firm Shopify also showed that point-of-sale sales made by its merchants in Australia during this year's Black Friday sales grew 27% from a year ago.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, Ben Dorber, Shopify, that's, Marcel Thieliant, Michele Bullock, Stella Qiu, Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Black, ANZ, Asia Pacific, Capital Economics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Australia
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