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☆ Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says the US is going through a 'textbook' financial crisis and the S&P 500 won't hit a new high for a long time
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is going through a "textbook" financial crisis, according to billionaire Leon Cooperman. That means poor returns for stocks, he added, warning the S&P 500 wouldn't hit a high again for a long time. Cooperman has warned markets of an coming recession, and said stocks could plunge 20% this year. "It's kind of like textbook," Cooperman said. Those conditions also mean tepid returns for stocks, Cooperman said.

☆ BlackRock's Larry Fink said the last few years have dramatically reshaped supply chains. Data — and experts — disagree.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

From the headlines, it's easy to think that supply chains are making a major shift closer to the consumer. "The repeated shocks of the past few years have also dramatically reshaped supply chains," Fink wrote in his highly-anticipated annual letter to shareholders Wednesday. His statements echo those from other top execs and prognosticators, who looked at the last few years and saw inevitable evolution toward more localized supply chains. Before the pandemic, supply chains were largely built with cost as a guiding principle. Is a "dramatic" redesign of supply chains possible?

☆ It's crystal clear now: More banks are going to fail
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It is likely that more bank failures are coming after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. "There's no doubt in my mind: There's going to be more. Investors are clearly nervous about the potential for a cascade of bank failures, reflected in the stock price of a handful of regional banks on Monday. Biden, Yellen vow no bailoutsThough depositors have been made whole in both recent failures, banks and their shareholders should be prepared for the government to let them fail, and should not count on anything resembling a 2008-style bailout. "And the reforms have been put in place means that we're not going to do that again."

☆ Nobel economist Paul Krugman says doomsday economic predictions were wrong, and the Fed risks a recession if it tries to respond to 'imaginary' stagflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Predictions of a steep recession and runaway inflation are wrong, Paul Krugman said in an op-ed. The Fed, however, still risks causing a recession if it tries to respond to "imaginary" stagflation. He previously predicted that the "true" rate of inflation was hovering around 4%, instead of the 6.5% recorded in December. "Will policymakers, especially at the Fed, who understated inflation risks in 2021 be flexible enough to accept that they overcompensated in 2022? Because if they don't, the policy response to imaginary stagflation may yet produce an unnecessary recession," Krugman warned.

☆ I see this year's budding stock rally signaling a different kind of bull market, one that's not so reliant on just a few stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

This nascent bull market started with the peak in interest rates and the dollar back in the fall and then broadened to include bank and semiconductor stocks in 2023. That's right we created FANG a decade ago this week on "Mad Money," and it was a really good call — until it wasn't. The stability of a market that's based, in part, on the assumption of a JPMorgan (JPM) or an American Express or even a Boeing rallying on earnings, seems tidal to me. That's what's happening as we consider the market to be far bigger than any group of a half-dozen stocks. Yes, I am shredding the cynicism and heralding the new bull market, one that's not ignorant of what ails things, but is benignly rotational.

☆ The Things We Might Cringe At in the Future
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( George Gurley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

One day we’ll look back on this moment and wonder: What were we thinking? What are the things we do today that will seem embarrassing or otherwise regrettable to our future selves — the stuff that will make us cringe when we look back on how we lived our lives in the early 2020s? More than 30 people from academia, fashion, media, the arts and business weighed in, as did a certain infamous chatbot. One day, perhaps very soon, many of these prognosticators said, we will blush to recall how we fished for likes on social media or shared our most private thoughts (and pics) with strangers. But our online behavior was just one of a multitude of potentially lamentable habits and trends cited by those who took a moment to predict what will make our future selves ashamed.

☆ The SEC Seeks to Supplant the Market
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Phil Gramm | Hester Peirce | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

When the financial crisis ended in the summer of 2009, economic prognosticators were virtually unanimous in predicting a strong, sustained recovery. But Obama-era regulatory policy smothered that recovery and made it the weakest since the Great Depression. Now, with the economy expected to slip into recession, the coming regulatory tsunami far exceeds the excesses of the post-financial-crisis period. Nowhere are the current regulatory excesses more evident than at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

☆ Wall Street 2023 Predictions Already Wrong: Recession, Inflation, China
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Across Wall Street, finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season. Of course, there's some uncertainty in all this, and Wall Street could still be proved right. Already some Wall Street economists are revising their predictions given the strong economy, even if they're not backing off their priors quite yet. It may take years to get the Chinese consumer, on which Wall Street has placed so many hopes, back to the strength of yesteryear. Don't hatchet your chickens before they countTo be fair, not every Wall Street analyst is looking sheepish right now.

☆ Cramer sees bullish signs starting to emerge in the stock market, just not in the same places as before
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Case in point: Mike Wilson, the genius of 2022, the strategist who was the most negative — and, therefore, the most right. Seven days ago, he predicted the bank earnings, the kick-off, would jolt the market by coming in sharply below expectations. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

☆ Buy these 30 stocks that are all on track to outperform a 'flattish' market in 2023, according to RBC, which says it's safe to bet on Facebook parent Meta this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

RBC says its list of 30 favorite global stocks has steadily outperformed over the past 3 years. The group is made up of Global Head of Research Graeme Pearson, Head of US Research Mark Odendahl, Head of Canadian & APAC Research André‐Philippe Hardy, and Head of European Research & Global Head of Research Product Management Michael Hall. Painful as that is, its benchmark, the MSCI World Net Total Return Index, suffered an even bigger loss of 18.4%. Since the end of 2019, the firm adds that the top 30 list "has delivered a total return of +23.2%, above the benchmark at +15.6%." The 30 stocks are ranked here from lowest to highest based on the total return (share price and dividends) that RBC expects them to deliver in 2023.

☆ Jim Cramer: My worldview for the first half of 2023 and the stocks that will win
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +27 min

Our stock market comes out of 2022 better than any other. The profitless companies today — like the dot-com stocks in 2000 — almost all disappointed and will continue to disappoint in 2023. I had thought these people would come back to work when they realized that savings from the stock market and Social Security aren't enough of a safety net. Money will be exiting the stock market all year into the safer and somewhat greener pastures. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Nasdaq closes out its first four-quarter slump since dot-com crash
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Ari Levy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The only other negative four-quarter stretch in the Nasdaq's five-decade history was in 1983-84, when the video game market crashed. watch nowOther than 2008, the only other year worse for the Nasdaq was 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst and the index sank 39%. Numerous companies went bankrupt, most notably crypto exchange FTX, which collapsed after reaching a $32 billion valuation earlier in the year. In total, Nasdaq companies have shed close to $9 trillion in value this year, according to FactSet. At its peak in 2000, Nasdaq companies were worth about $6.6 trillion in total, and proceeded to lose about $5 trillion of that by the time the market bottomed in October 2002.

☆ Dow headed back below 30,000, slim chance of soft landing for economy in 2023: CNBC CFO survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Throughout 2022, conversations with individual CFO Council members have more often than not tended to the view that the economy is headed for a hard landing. The CNBC CFO Council Q4 2022 survey is a sample of the current outlook among top financial officers. Recession is comingIt's been remarked that no recession has been more predicted than the one that still hasn't hit the economy. In a few key areas for the economy and markets, CFOs do think the worst is in. An equal percentage (roughly 40%) of CFOs say their spending and headcount will remain the same next year as those who expect it to increase.

☆ Honeywell is well-positioned to capitalize on pockets of strength in the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Aerospace well positioned Honeywell's aerospace division — which supplies parts to plane makers Boeing (BA) and European rival Airbus — falls on the positive end of the economic spectrum. Warehouse automation weaker While Honeywell's warehouse automation business saw growth in the first two years of the Covid pandemic, it's been hurt by the shift in consumer spending toward services, away from goods. The change in how dollars are being spent has led to challenges for retailers and, by extension, softened demand for Honeywell's warehouse automation offerings. "We look at the other end like warehouse automation, which is really tied to retail growth and products and distribution. This means that revenue growth may decline year-over-year, but each dollar of warehouse automation sales could be more profitable in 2023 than in 2022.

The congressional races were seen as tests of what has become conventional wisdom and a GOP mantra: that Latino voters are shifting to the Republican Party after President Donald Trump made inroads in the region in 2020. Vallejo won 55.3% of the vote to De La Cruz’s 42.7%, according to unofficial results from the Texas secretary of state. Gilbert Hinojosa, the Texas Democratic Party chairman, said Wednesday that Republicans' "red wave didn’t materialize." In the 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ended Republican Rep. Mayra Flores' short stint in Congress. Suzanne Gamboa / NBC NewsAs voter Benjamin Garza saw it, the Rio Grande Valley is a Democratic oasis in Republican Texas.

☆ White House buoyed by early midterm results as Biden avoids fate of his predecessors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Shannon-Pettypiece-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Shannon Pettypiece | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

MILWAUKEE — President Joe Biden appears to have pulled off something few of his recent predecessors managed — a midterm election that wasn’t a clear shellacking for his party, providing a sense of vindication for the White House. Biden's losses are likely to tally far fewer than President Barack Obama suffered in 2010 or President Donald Trump in 2018. The president spent election night at the White House watching returns with top advisers and family and making calls to Democrats who won their races. For many voters, Biden appeared to play little role in their decision. That compares to 2018 when only a third of voters said Trump was not a factor in their House vote.

And the House Democrats’ campaign arm last week deployed hundreds of thousands of dollars to save its chairman in a Biden district north of New York City. “And I think that right there explains why this red wave is going to be so big.”The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for House Democrats, said it isn't throwing in the towel. “Nearly a week from Election Day, House Democrats are well positioned to retain the majority despite a Republican gerrymandered map and MAGA Republicans’ dark money-fueled campaigns. Connecticut’s 5th District: Democrats have already spent $4.5 million to re-elect Hayes in a district that backed Biden 54.6% to Trump's 43.9% in the last election. Between now and Election Day, Democrats said they plan to spend an additional $1.5 million in ads to combat comparable spending by Republicans.

☆ Recession obsession: Warnings grow but nobody knows for sure
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The welcome GDP report comes amid almost daily recession warnings from bank CEOs, business economists, think tanks and former Treasury secretaries. But as the dread grows, today’s news is a reminder that no one knows for sure whether the US economy will tip into a recession. Moreover, most of those same prognosticators agree that even if we do have a recession, it would be mild. Thirdly, we won’t know if we are, or were, in a recession until it is over:A recession may be coming. But even the staunchest recession hawks think a recession — if it happens — would be mild.

House Democrats have unified as they fight to retain their fragile majority in next month’s midterms. But given Biden’s unpopularity and the GOP lead on the generic congressional ballot (which asks only which party people would support), the more likely scenario is a bad election night for House Democrats. If Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn head for the exits, the leadership matchups become pretty clear. Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., conducts a news conference in the Capitol Visitor Center on Sept. 20. The Massachusetts Democrat has significant support from fellow female members and has stayed close to the Black, Hispanic and Asian caucuses — big voting blocs in the diverse 220-member Democratic Caucus.

Rep. Mayra Flores speaks at the University Draft House in McAllen, Texas, on Oct. 10. “I still believe at the end of the day this is still a solid, moderate Democratic region,” González said. A fighting chanceOf the three Latina Republicans running, Mónica De La Cruz, endorsed by former President Donald Trump and running in an adjacent congressional district, Texas' 15th, is considered the party's best chance to win. Soon after being sworn in to Congress, Flores voted against the landmark gun safety bill pushed through Congress by Sen. John Cornyn, the Texas Republican. Francisco Medrano Jr., of Harlingen, says he’s likely to support Republican Mayra Flores.

☆ Bruno Mars withdraws Silk Sonic from Grammy Awards consideration
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

Bruno Mars has announced that Silk Sonic — the R&B duo consisting of himself and Anderson .Paak — have withdrawn their album “An Evening With Silk Sonic” from consideration for the 2023 Grammy Awards, he told Rolling Stone. “We truly put our all on this record, but Silk Sonic would like to gracefully, humbly and most importantly, sexually, bow out of submitting our album this year,” Mars said. That year, Jay was nominated for eight awards and shockingly won none; Lamar won five, but all in the hip-hop or video categories. Grammy nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Nov. 15. The 65th annual Grammy Awards take place at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Feb. 5, 2023.

☆ Biden heads to Oregon as Democratic hold on governorship threatened
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Daniel Trotta | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Oregon race pits Democrat Tina Kotek against Republican Christine Drazan and a strong independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat who is financially backed by Nike co-founder Phil Knight. Biden will stump for Kotek just as recent public opinion polls suggest Drazan has pulled into the lead. While some Democratic candidates around the country have distanced themselves from Biden, seeing him as a political liability, Kotek is hoping for both a political and fundraising boost. Len Bergstein, a Portland-based public affairs consultant and political analyst, said that unlike in other states Biden could offer the Democrat a needed jolt in Oregon. "The Democratic governor's candidate has got to pull in the kind of voter that normally votes for Joe Biden in a race like this, and energizes that turnout," Bergstein said.

“We’re going to bring a focus, particular focus, on the former president’s state of mind and his involvement in these events as they unfolded,” a committee aide said. Ginni Thomas, who advocated for Trump to remain in power, embraces the lie that the 2020 election was stolen. “What we’re going to be doing is taking a step back,” the aide said of Thursday’s hearing. The panel is working under a time crunch as it gathers and publicizes evidence prior to issuing a final report. If Republicans win control of the House in November’s elections, as most prognosticators predict, the committee will be disbanded in January.

☆ Op-ed: Tune out the forecasters. Here’s how investors should approach this bear market
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-16 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on August 15, 2022 in New York City. Economists, Wall Street analysts, hedge fund managers and public prognosticators have been all over the map lately in trying to divine the ways of Wall Street. Some have suggested the market has already bottomed and the bear market is over. Others are calling for another 20% decline in the S&P 500, which is down nearly 20% in 2022. Still others are forecasting a complete collapse that would be worse than 2000-2003 or 2007-2009.

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