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BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

The rupee finished last week 1.2% lower at 82.27 per dollar, tumbling swiftly from trading in the 81-handle initially. Considering that, the rupee is still expected to be "stuck" in a range, they added. Meanwhile, India's benchmark government bond yield ended last week at 7.2982%, with the 8 bps gain its biggest weekly rise since late-September. Yields are expected to move in a narrow range of 7.26%-7.36%, with high chances of the upper end being tested, said a fixed income trader. After the Fed meeting, traders will also watch out for the central bank's dot plot to see where terminal rates could go.

France, Spain and Finland said their rules are already structured to automatically take account of market tensions. The data tracked German, Italian, French, Spanish and Dutch bonds, markets which account for the vast majority of euro zone debt with nearly 8 trillion euros outstanding. So governments expect, and some formally require their primary dealers - banks that buy government debt at auctions and then sell to investors and manage its trading - to keep those tight. The euro zone is roughly 60% the size of the U.S. economy but it relies on Germany's 1.6 trillion euro bond market as a safe haven - a fraction of the $23-trillion U.S. Treasury market. Smaller governments pay premium over bigger rating peersEfforts by debt officials are welcomed by European primary dealers, whose numbers have dwindled in recent years because of shrinking profit margins and tougher regulation.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Germany, considered Europe's most reliable debtor, is having trouble selling its bonds, just as it seeks billions to tackle the energy crisis. Hit hard by its over-reliance on Russian energy, Germany intends to borrow particularly large amounts in the coming years, with Parliament last week voting to suspend the constitutional debt brake that limits new borrowing. France's finance agency, in contrast, issued 10 billion euros of medium term bonds on Oct. 20 into strong demand. VOLATILITY HURTS AUCTIONSThe uncertainty around borrowing and QT has increased volatility in euro zone bond markets, already rocked by the knock-on effects from Britain's now-scrapped plans for large unfunded tax cuts. Volatility is deterring the banks that act as dealers for German bonds from bidding in debt auctions, Tammo Diemer, head of the country's finance agency, said at an event on Tuesday.

Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is asking primary dealers of U.S. Treasuries whether the government should buy back some of its bonds to improve liquidity in the $24 trillion market. The Treasury is also querying whether reduced volatility in the issuance of Treasury bills as a result of buybacks made for cash and maturity management purposes could be a "meaningful benefit for Treasury or investors." But it let that exclusion expire and big banks had to resume holding an extra layer of loss-absorbing capital against Treasuries and central bank deposits. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a group of banks and investors that advise the government on its funding, has said that Treasury buybacks could enhance market liquidity and dampen swings in Treasury bill issuance and cash balances. The Treasury is posing the questions as part of its regular survey of dealers before each of its quarterly refunding announcements.

☆ US Treasury asks major banks if it should buy back U.S. government bonds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is asking primary dealers of U.S. Treasuries whether the government should buy back some U.S. government bonds to improve liquidity in the $24 trillion market. Investors are worried about rising volatility in bonds as the Federal Reserve rapidly raises interest rates to bring down inflation. The Treasury is also querying whether reduced volatility in the issuance of Treasury bills as a result of buybacks made for cash and maturity management purposes could be a "meaningful benefit for Treasury or investors." The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), a group of banks and investors that advise the government on its funding, has said that Treasury buybacks could enhance market liquidity and dampen swings in Treasury bill issuance and cash balances. The Treasury is posing the questions as part of its regular survey of dealers before each of its quarterly refunding announcements.

Finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's plans will require an extra 72 billion pounds ($79 billion) of government borrowing over the next six months alone, and - a particular concern for investors - cement permanent tax cuts costing 45 billion pounds a year. But to bond investors, they bring the prospect of more persistent inflationary pressures - at a time when inflation is already near a 40-year high - as well as tighter Bank of England (BoE) policy. Government borrowing is likely to total 218 billion pounds this financial year and 229 billion pounds in 2023/24, Citi predicted, and it expects benchmark 10-year British government bond yields to rise to 4.25%. Adding to the pressure, on Thursday the BoE confirmed it planned to reduce its own 838 billion pounds of gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over the coming year. "That is a strong indication that domestic and overseas investors are losing confidence in the UK's inflation-fighting credibility," he said.

☆ Confidence in UK assets on thin ice, investors warn - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.

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