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Ketchup inflation hits your weekend barbecue
  + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
New York CNN —Planning on squirting some ketchup on your hot dog at a barbecue this weekend? Though shoppers have been starting to see some relief in the grocery aisle, food inflation has been consistently outpacing overall inflation. Ketchup prices are piling up. Stefani Reynolds/AFP/Getty ImagesIn the year through April, grocery prices jumped 7.1%, according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. NIQ’s own data shows that in the week through April 30, ketchup prices were up about 14% year-over-year.
Budweiser owner AB InBev is the largest brewer in the world. Budweiser-owner Anheuser-Busch InBev on Thursday reported a jump in profit for the first quarter, saying the beer industry had proved resilient despite inflationary pressures. Underlying profit attributable to shareholders came in at $1.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion during the same quarter last year. In April — following the reporting period — AB InBev faced online backlash against its Bud Light brand after a brief social media partnership with a transgender influencer. Online personalities called for a boycott of the beer, while others said AB InBev did not show enough subsequent support for the TikTok star, Dylan Mulvaney.
Sifting through the flood of financial reports this week, Goldman Sachs analysts have named a slew of stocks poised for more growth ahead. Constellation Brands Shares of the beer and wine maker are just too attractive to ignore, the firm said. Braze "Long-term fundamentals are intact," analyst Gabriella Borges said of the cloud software marketing company. Braze shares are up more than 7% this year, after coming off of a better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter report . Importantly, the company raised its full year outlook at the high end of prior range, with ~8% net sales growth and ~11% adj.
A big shift in consumer demand is coming as global population growth slows, and that means companies need to respond with more active approaches to generate outperformance, according to Evercore ISI. Historically, booming population growth, globalization and industrialization have supported economic growth, Julian Emanuel, the firm's senior managing director, wrote in an April 5 note. "Companies with higher value-added services and better quality will likely better capture market share than those relying solely on volume growth." "Consumer companies that focus on 'trade-up' categories and premiumization could benefit as middle-income discretionary spend continues to rise," Emanuel said. Meanwhile, McDonald's top six markets — including the U.S., U.K. and France — are all experiencing slowing population growth.
Now is the time to buy Procter & Gamble , according to UBS, which says the company's recent underperformance is "unwarranted." Analyst Peter Grom upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and raised his price target for Procter shares to $163 from $157. The analyst also noted that Procter shares are trading slightly below their average five-year valuation, making "the risk/reward at current levels is attractive." Grom added that a return to share gains, premiumization and a China reopening are leading to estimates of nearly 5% growth in organic revenue in 2024. P & G shares have fallen more than 9% in 2023, while the S & P 500 is up 3.4% in that time.
European demand is deepening a shortage of agave, the prickly plant native to Mexico's Jalisco region that's used to make tequila. Tequila prices have leapt. Compounding matters, the flow to Europe of high-quality 100% agave tequila - which has to be bottled in Mexico - has also been constrained by the supply-chain chaos from COVID-19. Michael Merolli, head of Pernod Ricard's tequila business, which includes Olmeca, said there were far fewer tequila brands in Europe than the United States, where the market was more mature and competitive, with new brands emerging every week. U.S. A-listers like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Kendall Jenner and Kevin Hart have all launched tequila brands in recent years.
Spirits like whiskey, cognac and tequila, a celebrity favorite, have surpassed beer's U.S. market share for the first time due to price hikes and high-end cocktail trends, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. U.S. sales for spirits totaled $37.58 billion last year, while beers like Anheuser-Busch inbev SA's (ABI.BR) Bud Lite tallied $37.46 billion, according to data compiled by the Distilled Spirits Council. Spirits' market share was 42.1%, while beer's was 41.9%, according to the data. Tequila and ready-to-drink canned cocktails including Constellation Brands Inc's (STZ.N) Fresca vodka spritz were among the fastest-growing types of spirits, the Distilled Spirits Council said. "The 'premiumization' trend, where people look at distilled spirits as an affordable luxury, is affirmed by these numbers," said Chris Swonger, CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council.
General Mills was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS, which said it's optimistic about the outlook despite the stock's rocky performance, and investor concerns are overblown. The Pillsbury and Cheerios maker's stock has fallen 12% since mid-December, UBS said, vs. a 5% loss for peers, UBS said. "Investors are concerned that structural headwinds are beginning to form in Pet," analyst Cody Ross wrote in a note, referring to the pet food business. UBS foresees strong consumer demand for upgraded dog food in coming years, driving market growth of 5%. This will be critical in helping General Mills achieve 2% long-term sales growth, the note added.
Citi reiterates Apple as buy Citi says it's sticking with its buy rating heading into earnings next week. We maintain our Buy rating." Citi reiterates Intel as neutral Citi says it's standing by its neutral rating on the stock, but that Intel's earnings report on Thursday was "bad news." Wells Fargo reiterates Amazon as overweight Wells says it's standing by its buy rating heading into Amazon earnings on February 2. Argus reiterates Tesla as buy Argus says it's sticking with its buy rating after the company's earnings report earlier this week.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Diageo CEO Ivan Menezes
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Diageo CEO Ivan MenezesDiageo CEO Ivan Menezes joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss repairing supply chain discontinuities, consumer shopping behavior, and ongoing brand strength in premiumization.
Diageo CEO: Consumer offtake is robust in the U.S.
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDiageo CEO: Consumer offtake is robust in the U.S.Diageo CEO Ivan Menezes joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss repairing supply chain discontinuities, consumer shopping behavior, and ongoing brand strength in premiumization.
It's time to move to the sidelines on Starbucks , according to Jefferies. Analyst Andy Barish downgraded the coffee chain to hold from buy, saying shares are likely going to trade in a narrow range after their outperformance this year. Additionally, the analyst is concerned a recession in the second half of calendar year 2023, or in the first half of 2024, will hurt discretionary spending and same-store sales at the coffee chain. Our FY23/24 U.S. SSS ests are 7%/5% vs guide 7-9% in each year and Cons 8%/6%," Barish wrote. Starbucks shares are down about 16% in 2022, better than the S & P 500's more than 19% decline.
Starbucks previously reported that premium add-ons like syrups are a $1 billion business. A drop in traffic amid a looming 2023 recession could also hit Starbucks. Jefferies is "baking into our forecast" that a recession will lower US same-store sales at Starbucks due to negative traffic growth, Barish said. Those modifiers are big business for Starbucks, according to Sara Trilling, president of Starbucks North America. Add-ons are a $1 billion "high margin" business for Starbucks that has doubled since 2019, the company said during the November call.
Of the roughly 20% of companies that have reported quarterly results so far, 72% have beat expectations, according to FactSet data. Technology giant Apple , which is slated to report earnings Oct. 27, is also on the list. JPMorgan recently reiterated its overweight rating on shares of Apple ahead of its earnings report next week. Mastercard is another large company that's included in the list, with a 94% earnings beat rate and average earnings day move of 2%. Teledyne has an earnings beat rate of 100%, according to the Bespoke data.
Boston Beer has an average analyst rating of hold and 8% downside to the average price target, according to FactSet. "In a recession, beer tends to gain about one percentage point of share from spirits. How to play the space With that mindset, you shouldn't alter your long-term investments because of a potential recession, Sarwat said. Its average price target is buy. Duckhorn also has an average rating of buy, with 30% upside to the average price target.
As CNBC Pro has previously reported, pet ownership in the U.S . is booming, and will help sustain a higher level of sales in the coming years. However, that 4% increase in pet ownership has resulted in an 11% gain in pet spending, it said. "Despite now being [circa] 30 months away from the start of the pandemic, pet care is still going strong," AllianceBernstein analysts wrote. That pace is faster than 8% global growth rate from 2021 to 2022 predicted by Euromonitor and Bernstein analysis, the report said. It owns Diana Pet Foods, and is the leading pet food ingredients company.
Even earlier in the session, when all three major U.S. stock indexes were in the red, STZ shares were slightly in the green. "Pricing optionality" — jargon that really just means raising prices to help offset rising costs — is another part of Wedbush's bullish case. The Club's take Wedbush's positive note comes less than a week after Constellation released its very solid second-quarter results . Just as we saw little to nitpick in the company's numbers and guidance, we see little to disagree with in Wedbush's STZ thesis. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
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