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The presidential election was two weeks ago, and the country’s liberals are already deep into the blame phase. Before those premature post-mortems get fully baked into conventional wisdom, though, I wanted to flag a handful of observations about the race and how it’s already being interpreted — some caveats, some counterpoints, some context that may help us understand the meaning of a big messy election in a big messy country, at least until we get the actually-reliable voter data. In the end, it seems, Donald Trump’s margin in the national popular vote will be about 1.6 percentage points — the narrowest victory since razor-thin 2000. The election did mark a decisive shift: a broad, uniform move to the right, down to the county level, that carried a Republican to a popular vote win for the first time in 20 years. But this was not a wipeout even like the one in 2008 (let alone 1932, 1972 or 1984).
Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Trump Organizations: Republican Locations: Midwest
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB should cut by 50 basis points — but they won't, UniCredit's Nielsen saysErik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit, discusses the ECB's December meeting, and the need for a Capital Markets Union in Europe.
Persons: UniCredit's Nielsen, Erik Nielsen Organizations: Capital Markets Union Locations: Europe
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher on Friday, as investors closely monitored further escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war. It comes after the pan-European Stoxx 600 index snapped a four-session losing streak to close around 0.5% higher on Thursday. Gold prices extended gains on Friday and were on course for their best week in a year amid concerns over the conflict. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 index log gains for a fourth straight day. U.S. stock futures edged higher overnight, on track to end the week with gains across the three major averages.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Vladimir Putin Organizations: France's CAC, IG Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Dnipro, Asia, Pacific
Roughly half (51%) of Democrats and independents who lean toward the party say they’re optimistic, while 49% say that they’re pessimistic about its future. By contrast, 86% of Republican-aligned adults now call themselves optimistic about the GOP’s future, up from 65% who said the same two years ago. Roughly 8 in 10 said they were optimistic following Trump’s 2016 election and the 2018 midterms, with 74% calling themselves optimistic after Biden’s 2020 victory. Fewer express confidence in Trump to make good decisions on abortion policy (45%) or to bring the country closer together (41%). The Pew Research Center poll surveyed 9,609 US adults from November 12-17, using a nationally representative online panel.
Persons: they’ve, Donald Trump, Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Pew, , Trump, they’re Organizations: CNN, Pew Research Center, Democratic, Republican, Republican Party, Democratic Party, GOP Locations: Trump
The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.3345% after dipping by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were lower Friday as investors weighed mixed economic data and assessed the state of the economy. Investors considered the current state and outlook for the U.S. economy after Thursday brought a series of mixed data points. Investors also assessed the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials, scanning them for hints about whether a third back-to-back interest rate cut could be announced when policymakers meet again next month. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday indicated that he saw the need for more rate cuts ahead, but cautioned that the pace of reductions could slow.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Wall Street, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, P Global, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal Locations: U.S
Markets: The stock market is wrapping up a good week, with the S & P 500 on Friday pacing for its fifth straight session of gains. Next week: It's a holiday-shortened week with markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and closed early (1 p.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, industrials, Coterra, We're, Blackwell, CrowdStrike, Robert F Kennedy, we'll, JM Smucker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., Walmart, Costco, Utilities, Nvidia, Coterra Energy, Technology, Enterprise, Department of Health, Human Services, Department of Justice, Google, Chrome, Burlington Stores, Dick's Sporting Goods, JM, Abercrombie, Fitch, Dell Technologies, HP Inc, Federal, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Locations: New York City
Investors should brace themselves for another big move next year, according to an analysis of historical data from Bank of America. The S & P 500 is up 24.7% in 2024 and on track for its second straight year with a gain of more than 20%. After rising 31% and 38% in 1927 and 1928, respectively, the S & P 500 lost 12% in 1929 and another 28% in 1930, Hartnett said. The last time the S & P 500 posted back-to-back 20% annual gains was in the 1990s, soaring 34% in 1995 and 20% in 1996. Hartnett noted that the "secret sauce" for the S & P 500 to avoid some of the sharp reversals seen before is a decline in Treasury yields.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, wasn't, Hartnett, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Bank of America Locations: U.S
Japan's headline inflation rate slipped to 2.3% in October, its lowest level since January and down from the 2.5% seen in September. The core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food prices, came in at 2.3%, down from September's 2.4%. The figure however, was slightly higher than the 2.2% expected among economists polled by Reuters. According to LSEG data, 55% of economists polled by Reuters as of Nov. 22 expect the BOJ to hike rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, bringing the benchmark policy rate to 0.5%. On Nov. 18, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the economy is heading toward sustained wage-driven inflation, and warned against keeping borrowing costs too low, Reuters reported.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Reuters Locations: September's, Japan's
AdvertisementGreg Mansell says some employers are scrutinizing accommodation requests amid rising RTO mandates. As an employment lawyer of 15 years, here are my tips for employees to overcome four hurdles in the accommodation request process. Don't wait for your specialistAfter an accommodation is requested, employers may ask the employee's medical provider to fill out an accommodation request detailing the underlying impairment, the restrictions it imposes, and the requested accommodation. It may be useful for the disabled employee to prepare their own accommodation request and present it for their doctor's review. Document everythingIf you consult a lawyer, it's helpful to have as much documentation of the accommodation request process as possible.
Persons: Greg Mansell, Mansell, It's, Jill Kramer, Tess Martinelli Organizations: Accenture Locations: New York City, tmartinelli
Now we see it's very common for these store cards to charge over 30%." Just before the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in September, many retailers and their bank partners raised interest rates on their store cards to protect their profits when the federal funds rate — which determines their own interest rates — came down. Now, the average interest rate on a store card is at an all-time high just ahead of the holiday shopping season, which is when most consumers sign up for store cards. That was less than half of the interest rate increase for store cards seen from September 2023 to September 2024, when the federal funds rate didn't budge. When asked why they increased the APR on their store cards, the companies that returned CNBC's request for comment pointed vaguely to industry standards and the current economic environment.
Persons: Tommy, Petco, Ted Rossman, it's, Jasmine Matheney, Nordstrom, Matheney, you've, preemptively Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Navy, Academy Sports, Fed, CNBC, Comenity Bank, Big Lots Locations: Petco, Burlington, Macy's, Michael's, Michigan
This isn't the first time I've received travel credit in exchange for taking a later flight — and it happens more often than you might think. How to get travel credit or compensation for giving up your seatPeak travel season often coincides with flight snafus from inclement weather or mechanical issues. If your schedule can accommodate a spontaneous change of plans, here's what you should know about volunteering for travel credit. AdvertisementUnderstanding bumping and denied boardingOperating a commercial flight is expensive, so most airlines slightly oversell each flight to compensate for no-shows and last-minute cancellations. You'll get the fastest response if you include your date(s) of travel, flight number(s), full contact information, and airline frequent flyer number.
Persons: I'm, I've, you'll, It's, you've, You'll Organizations: American Airlines, Department of Transportation, Aviation, Airlines Locations: New Orleans, Austin, Italy, U.S
FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment is poised for even more gains ahead as its U.S. growth takes off, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Ben Andrews initiated coverage of the online sports betting operator with a buy rating and $320 price target. Andrews sees upside to Flutter's 2027 revenue guidance for existing states and sees double-digit percentage upside to Wall Street's consensus targets on Flutter's U.S. EBITDA in 2027 and 2028. S & P) and Flutter building a track record of consistent delivery and as a compounding cash generator." The company continues to acquire new customers in existing states, which "Flutter is doing more efficiently than competition, supported by their scale," Andrews said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ben Andrews, Andrews Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, U.S
Stock futures edged lower on Thursday evening with Wall Street poised to end the week with gains in the three major averages. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 0.3%. All three major averages are on track for a positive week, led by the Nasdaq Composite's gain of 1.56%. That's a change from last week, when Wall Street's postelection rally appeared to stall. Shares of Gap jumped 15% after the company beat earnings estimates and hiked its full-year sales guidance.
Persons: Wall, Saira Malik Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, market's, Intuit Locations: New York City
To deliver with Blackwell, Nvidia must juggle performance expectations and complex supply chains. How next year plays out will significantly depend on the performance of Blackwell, its next-generation AI chip. The Santa Clara-based chip giant reminded everyone why it has grown more than 200% this year to become the world's most valuable company. AdvertisementNvidia must navigate complex supply chainsFirst, Blackwell is what Nvidia CFO Colette Kress called a "full-stack" system. There had been some recent suggestions that cooling issues were plaguing Blackwell, but Huang seemed to suggest they had been addressed.
Persons: Blackwell, Dan Ives, Jensen Huang, Colette Kress, Kress, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Huang, I've, Hopper, Hamish Low, Low Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Revenue, Hopper, SK Hynix, Blackwell's, AMD, Enders Analysis Locations: Santa Clara, Silicon Valley, Connecticut
The Army is doing what it can to make it easier for its football team and the man in charge. As he watched his very first practice as athletic director, Buddie saw his football coach picking up errant wrappers on the field. The Army football team wakes up before sunrise and leaves the practice field after dark, unbeaten and almost too busy to notice anyone noticing. Army coach Jeff Monken, 57, is the second-winningest coach in program history. And Jeff Monken is still the Army football coach.
Persons: Jeff Monken, , ” Monken, , I’m, ” It’s, Army –, it’s, Monken, irrelevance, , Luke Proulx, Earl “ Red, Steven Gilland, Mike Buddie, Mike, Monken’s, I’ve, Paul Johnson, you’ve, weren’t, ” Proulx, Army hasn’t, Lucas Scott, Buddie, disperses, Cody Winkour, Drew Thatcher, Cody Worley, Nate Woody, Thatcher, Worley, who’d, Bryson Daily, ” Worley, Woody, Andon Thomas, Jon Rhattigan, who’s, he’s, Dan Patrick Show ”, needling, he’ll, “ I’ve, , they’re, might’ve, Kanye Udoh, David Jensen, Tom Osborne, Woody Hayes, Joe Paterno, Johnson, ” Johnson, ” Buddie, He’s, – Johnson, ’ ” Johnson, they’ll, “ That’s, ” Scott, Udoh, It’s, ‘ I’m, Meech Robinson, Dustin Satloff Organizations: Army, College Football, Michie, they’re, Knights, Notre Dame, Yankee, United States Military Academy, Black Knights, Associated Press, Navy, ” Army, Millikin University, of Fame, Georgia Tech, III, Georgia Southern, Military, NCAA, Division II Nebraska, Monken, Ohio State, North, Carolina Panthers, Football, North Texas, Daily, The Army football, Longevity, Nutrition, American Athletic Conference, College, Cadet Locations: Fort Putnam, Hudson, Decatur , Ill, Joliet, Hawaii, Honolulu, Illinois, U.S.A, Kearney, North Texas, Carolina, West, , Georgia, Russia, Ukraine
But cargo container trade data reviewed by CNBC tells a more nuanced tale. "We took some action to move product ahead of the port strike which came with more cost," Fiddelke said. Target's peak season imports for 2024 compared to 2023 were flat to down, according to cargo container volumes data pulled and analyzed by ImportGenius. According to customs data aggregated by Panjiva, Walmart imported 25,000 shipments from May 31-August 31, valued at $1.3 billion. "With any frontloading for the port strike, inventory would be up even higher than that."
Persons: Brandon Bell, Brian Cornell, Michael Fiddelke, Fiddelke, William George, Lynn Hughes, we're, Jerry Storch, Storch, Joe Feldman, Feldman, Bill Simon, Simon, Melissa Repko Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Target, ILA, ImportGenius, Storch Advisors, Panjiva, Walmart, Telsey Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, New England, Texas, West Coast, Savannah , Georgia, Long Beach , California, of Virginia, West, East Coast, Gulf
The stock market has always pulled back when valuations are stretched as they are now, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients this week. "[T]urning points can happen quickly, and … when valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains," Allen noted. "[E]xamples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals." The bank cited lofty current readings in the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, arguing that "the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century" than it is today. "Indeed, on both the occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction."
Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Robert Shiller, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: Deutsche Bank
Deportation often hinges on diplomacy – and has been a steep challenge for the US when dealing with countries where there are frosty relations. Taken together, it’s a return to a hardline approach meant to get countries receiving deportees to comply and attempt to curb migration. But sources close to and involved in discussions argue they’ve identified the incentives and pressure points to have countries cooperate. The executive actions and reviews underway by the Trump team include the return of the program informally known as “remain in Mexico,” which requires migrants to stay in Mexico during their immigration proceedings in the US. “A second-term Trump administration will expand ‘burden-sharing’ deals with Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador that cut off pathways to the US for asylum-seekers.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, it’s, they’ve, Biden, , they’re, “ It’s, Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump’s, El, Nayib Bukele, , Andrew Selee, CNN’s Phil Mattingly Organizations: Washington CNN —, , Western Hemisphere, Governments, Trump, Northern, Policy Institute Locations: America, United States, Mexico, Panama, Darien, Venezuela, China, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Angeles
CNN —Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola signed a new two-year contract extension on Thursday, extending his club tenure to over a decade. “Manchester City means so much to me,” Guardiola said in a Thursday club statement. Begiristain worked with Guardiola at Barcelona and was key to his appointment at City, having joined the club in 2012. City acknowledged the rumors surrounding Guardiola’s future in a social media video post announcing a new extension deal had been struck. The 53-year-old sounds just as driven for success as he was when he signed for City in 2016.
Persons: Pep Guardiola, ” Guardiola, Begiristain –, Begiristain, Guardiola, , Ballon d’Or, Rodri, Organizations: CNN, Manchester City, Barcelona, City, Premier League, Champions League, FA, Barça, Bayern Munich, Citizens, Abu Dhabi United Group, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur Locations: Manchester City, , Abu,
There's no denying how important Nvidia is to the stock market. Stock futures followed Nvidia's lead, riding slight losses at the time. In that time, stock futures recovered their earlier losses and were last up around 0.5%. Many firms lifted their price targets on the chipmaker, including Citi, Wells Fargo and Bernstein . Elsewhere Thursday morning on Wall Street, Wells Fargo initiated GE Vernova as overweight, citing growing power demand from artificial intelligence.
Persons: Nvidia's, Wells Fargo, Bernstein Organizations: Nvidia, Barclays, Bank of America, Citi, GE Vernova Locations: Wells Fargo
CNN —LeBron James announced on Wednesday that he’s taking a break from social media. The Los Angeles Lakers star made the announcement on his X, formerly known as Twitter, and Instagram accounts, writing: “Getting off social media for the time being. “When the platform is so big, you can make the change and allow us all an escape from real life negativity. Knecht scored a career-high 37 points in the Lakers’ 124-118 win over the Utah Jazz on Tuesday, tying the NBA rookie record of nine three-pointers in a single game. It is unclear when James will return to social media.
Persons: LeBron James, , James, Rich Kleiman, Kevin Durant’s, ” Kleiman, Dalton Knecht’s, Knecht, he’s Organizations: CNN, Los Angeles Lakers, Twitter, Tennessee, Lakers, Utah Jazz, NBA
That's partly due to higher inventory levels, which rose 19% in October compared to last year. Existing home sales rose 3.4% in October, the group said. Sales rose 2.9% year-over-year for the first annual rise since July 2021 when Americans were still in the midst of a pandemic homebuying boom. Despite higher inventory levels, existing home prices have continued to rise, with the median existing home price climbing 4% in October to $407,200. Last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked lower but remained elevated at 6.78%, three basis-points higher higher than the 52-week average, according to Freddie Mac.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Freddie Mac, Yun, Zillow Organizations: National Association of Realtors, NAR, Bank of America Locations: Real
In the months ahead, Democratic Party officials and operatives will analyze election returns and voting patterns to try to make sense of what happened on Election Day. Like Goldwater after 1964, the Democratic Party can seize defeat to establish a new order — but the era of tinkering around the edges is over. Look no further than solid blue New York: Vice President Kamala Harris had the worst statewide performance for a Democrat since 1988. The contemporary Democratic Party emerged from the “greed is good” era of the 1980s in part by co-opting pieces of the Reagan agenda. President Bill Clinton built a coalition — part working class, part Wall Street — that led Democrats back to the White House without redefining the political system.
Persons: Goldwater, Ronald Reagan’s, Donald Trump didn’t, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s, Reagan, Bill Clinton, Organizations: Democratic Party, Democratic, Democrat Locations: York, New York City
New research based on the findings, published in several papers Wednesday in Nature and its sister journals, represents a “leap in understanding of the human body,” according to the Human Cell Atlas consortium. Regev compared scientific knowledge of cell biology before the Human Cell Atlas initiative with a “15th century map.”“Now, years later, the resolution of the map is a lot higher,” she said. The cell atlas aims to fill in a missing link between genes, diseases and treatment therapies. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Human Cell Atlas community used the available data to reveal that the nose, eyes and mouth were most vulnerable to infection. “It was only clear through the Human Cell Atlas data that those cells were … entry points before the virus continued into the internal organs.
Persons: , , Aviv, Daniel Montoro “, we’ve, Regev, , Sarah Teichmann, Ken, Blain, Robert Hooke, ” Teichmann, Jeremy Farrar, ” Farrar Organizations: CNN, Human Cell Atlas, Genome, Cell, Google, Human, Human Cell, Cambridge Stem Cell, UK’s University of Cambridge, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Institut, la Vision, HCL, Lyon, World Health Organization Locations: Nature, Genentech, South San Francisco , California, Cambridge, England, Paris, Lyon English
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFears are mounting that the U.S. could soon experience its own version of Britain's "mini-budget" crisis, with bond strategists warning that Donald Trump's return to the White House brings with it the specter of currency volatility and surging bond yields. The former president's economic agenda has ratcheted up concerns about a surge in consumer prices, which strategists say could spark significant shifts in bond yields and investor behavior. They warn a scenario that mirrors Britain's mini-budget crisis of 2022 is not out of the question. watch nowBritain's mini-budget crisis refers to a tumultuous period under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher consumer prices or a growing budget deficit.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Remtulla, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Althea Spinozzi, Trump's, Spinozzi, Angela Weiss, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Thierry Wizman, likelier, Wizman Organizations: Economic, of New, Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, CNBC, U.S ., Finance, U.S, Bank of England, Saxo Bank, White, Treasury, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Capital Economics, Macquarie Group Locations: of New York, New York, U.S, Foreign, Treasurys, Treasuries, New York City, America
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