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☆ Morning Bid: Hot, cold and skipping a beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Like a patient with a virus, incoming data appears to blow hot and cold at the same time. Private sector and full national snapshots of payroll growth for May are due later today and on Friday. But a renewed rise in U.S. staff vacancies in April showed the labor market tightening again if anything - even a Chicago manufacturing survey alarmed with a sharp contraction in factory activity last month. The central bank's "Beige Book" on economic conditions said on Wednesday that the labor market "continued to be strong" in May "with contacts reporting difficulty finding workers across a wide range of skill levels and industries." U.S. Treasury yields crept back up on Thursday after the debt ceiling vote overnight and despite the mixed economic picture.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Philip Jefferson, Larry Fink, Klaas Knot, Patrick Harker, President Biden, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, BlackRock, Treasury, U.S, San, Central Bank, Philadelphia Federal, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Cooper Companies, Republicans, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Chicago, Salesforce, San Francisco

Harker said he sees promising signs the Fed's rate hikes so far -- five full percentage points since March 2022 -- are having a cooling effect, particularly on housing prices. Uncertainty over inflation dynamics and the pace of credit tightening make him wary of continuing to raise rates. Harker said he expects the economy to grow less than 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate, now at 3.4%, to rise to around 4.4%. He said he could envision the Fed cutting rates if unemployment rises significantly faster, or inflation falls more rapidly, than he currently forecasts. "We don't have to keep moving rates up, and then have to reverse course quickly."

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, Corp's, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson

☆ US dollar advances to seven-week peak after data, debt ceiling hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Another piece of data indicated a milder-than-expected fall in a business index to -10.4 from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The dollar index touched a new seven-week high of 103.38, and was last up 0.5% at 103.34 after the economic numbers. Against the yen, the dollar rose to a fresh five-month peak of 138.39 after the data and was last up 0.5% at 138.35 . Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The focus was also on debt ceiling talks.

☆ Morning Bid: April boomlet mocks recession script
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe signal is still lost in an awful lot of noise. With next week's Big Tech earnings reports hoving into view, the overall U.S. corporate healthcheck remains pretty mixed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overall global stock market direction remains equivocal. Although Asia bourses had initially followed Wall St's Thursday swoon, European indexes and S&P500 futures were little changed on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

The inflation data came on the heels of last Friday's employment report, which showed a solid pace of job growth in March and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%. In Europe, stock markets rose after the U.S. data and the broad STOXX 600 index was last up 0.5% (.STOXX) and holding near one-month highs. BONDS UP, DOLLAR DOWNU.S. bonds yields fell after the CPI numbers. Rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields were last down 12 basis points at 3.93% , while U.S. 10-year yields fell 6 bps to 3.37%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six rivals down 0.4% at 101.72.

REUTERS/StaffApril 12 (Reuters) - World stocks and bond yields stalled on Wednesday as markets anticipated crucial U.S. inflation data which could give signals on how soon the Federal Reserve will end its aggressive rate hikes. Markets were in wait-and-see mode ahead of the data, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index inching up 0.3% by 0820 GMT, while Britain's FTSE (.FTSE) was up 0.6%. Government bond yields were also little moved with benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields unchanged on the day at 3.43%. "We do not assume that the discrepancy between Fed and market expectations will end today or in the near future," Reichelt said. With oil prices rising again and labour market cooling only gradually, risk remains tilted for core inflation to remain elevated for longer," they said.

☆ Oil edges up as market awaits key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Wednesday as the market waited for U.S. inflation data later in the day that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's policy on future interest rate hikes. The U.S. consumer price index is expected to show March core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-on-year (USCPFY=ECI), according to a Reuters poll of economists. In another negative for oil demand, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook, citing the impact of higher interest rates. In addition to the inflation data, the market is waiting for more clarity on oil demand and supply with monthly reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency due on Thursday and Friday respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday cut its forecast for oil production by OPEC countries by 0.5 million barrels-per-day for the rest of 2023 and cut its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 bpd.

☆ Asian stocks ease ahead of US inflation data, Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Eurostoxx 50 futures was down 0.16%, German DAX futures up 0.01% and FTSE futures down 0.07%. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and then pausing for the subsequent meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed last month raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. With oil prices rising again and labour market cooling only gradually, risk remains tilted for core inflation to remain elevated for longer," they said.

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy markets wait on inflation report, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will parse through the commentary to better understand the Fed's thinking about the turmoil in the banking sector, which had stoked expectations that the Fed may need to cut rates. But economic data along with rhetoric from Fed speakers have led markets to price in a two-thirds chance of a 25bp hike in May and standing pat thereafter, according to CME FedWatch tool. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Switzerland's upper house had approved the rescue earlier on Tuesday, meaning the two chambers of the legislative body will vote again on Wednesday. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:Economic events: Inflation reports from Serbia, Hungary; Bank of Canada rate decision; U.S. inflation report; Fed minutesSpeakers: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB's Luis De GuindosReporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil steady as market awaits key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices were mostly steady on Wednesday as the market waited for U.S. inflation data later in the day that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's policy on future interest rate hikes. The U.S. consumer price index is expected to show March core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-on-year (USCPFY=ECI), according to a Reuters poll of economists. In another negative for oil demand, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook, citing the impact of higher interest rates. In addition to the inflation data, the market is waiting for more clarity on oil demand and supply with monthly reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency due on Thursday and Friday respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday cut its forecast for oil production by OPEC countries by 0.5 million barrels-per-day for the rest of 2023 and cut its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 bpd.

☆ Asian stocks subdued ahead of US inflation data, Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Data on Tuesday showed China's consumer inflation in March was at its slowest since September 2021. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and then pausing for the subsequent meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed last month raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. "Investors seem to be getting ahead of themselves in expecting the Fed to begin cutting interest rates", said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

☆ Oil steady after surprise build in U.S. crude stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed in early trading on Wednesday after industry data showed an unexpected build in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, offsetting concerns about tightening supply ahead of output cuts by OPEC producers. In a sign of market tightness, U.S. crude futures have flipped into backwardation, with the front month contract trading 6 cents higher than the second month. Brent crude fell 5 cents at $85.57 a barrel by 0029 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 6 cents to $81.48 a barrel. Prices had risen about 2% on Tuesday on hopes that the Federal Reserve might slow its policy tightening after U.S. consumer prices data releases on Wednesday. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels the U.S. central bank may soon be done raising interest rates, while Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he believes inflation, now at a rate of 5% by the Fed's preferred measure, will get to "the mid-threes" by the end of this year.

April 11 (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the U.S. central bank may soon be done raising interest rates, a year into its most rapid monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Harker joined his fellow U.S. central bankers last month in voting for a quarter of a percentage point increase in the benchmark overnight interest rate, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. In a question-and-answer session following his speech, Harker said he was among that majority. Recent inflation readings "show that disinflation is proceeding slowly - which is disappointing, to say the least," Harker said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee earlier on Tuesday said he was focused on parsing the potential impact of tighter credit conditions on the economy in the run-up to the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI increased 6%, still elevated but well off its 11.6% peak in March 2022. The PPI increase came amid a 5% increase in energy costs but a 1% decline in food. About one-third of that increase came from a 6.2% increase in the gasoline index. The services index rose 0.4%, pushed by a 0.6% increase in prices for final demand services less trade, transportation and warehousing.

☆ Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge plunges unexpectedly
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 16 (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region dropped off sharply and unexpectedly in February, and goods producers reported input cost increases accelerated for the first time in 10 months while their own price increases slowed dramatically, signaling margin pressures were building. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing index plunged to -24.3 this month from -8.9 in January, belying expectations among economists for a third straight monthly improvement. Moreover, firms expect smaller price increases for consumers in the next 12 months than they did in November. In a special question, firms said they expect to impose 4.5% price increases for their own products in the year ahead, down from 4.8% when asked the same question in November and also lower than the 7.0% price increases they'd realized over the last year. Wage increases were also expected to be lower at 4.8% in the year ahead, down from 5.0% in the November survey.

☆ Gold subdued as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold prices edged lower on Monday on a firmer dollar as investors squared positions before U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate-hike roadmap. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,861.95 per ounce, as of 0302 GMT. Bullion is often seen as an inflation hedge, but the opportunity cost of holding it is higher when interest rates are raised to combat inflation. Data on Tuesday is likely to show the U.S. monthly consumer prices climbing 0.4% month-on-month in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI data on Friday showed the consumer price index edged up 0.1% in December rather than dipping 0.1% as reported last month.

☆ Fed's Harker says small rate hikes on table, opens door to cuts next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"What is driving our rate increases right now is inflation, and we are starting to see signs, early signs that inflation is starting to move down," Harker said in a Reuters interview. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is now in the 4.50%-4.75% range. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was running at more than double the 2% target in December. DOOR OPENINGIn the interview, Harker said he sees the Fed's policy rate going up to somewhere above 5% and holding there for a while. Harker said he expects the jobless rate to move up to 4.5% from its current level due to the impact of Fed policy before ebbing.

☆ Morning bid: No safety net?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I just think we need to keep going," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. And many forecasters are now wary the Fed will err on the side of tighter policy to ensure inflation is slayed. Markets wobbled on the prospect on Wednesday, with the S&P500 (.SPX) staging its biggest decline of the year so far. At 3.32%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since September. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Before the market opened, U.S. economic data showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December, while production at U.S. factories fell more than expected and November output was weaker than thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 613.89 points, or 1.81%, to 33,296.96 and the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 62.11 points, or 1.56%, to 3,928.86. Today's economic data served as a trigger to initiate a profit taking spell and the groups with most profits to take have been the ones that have done best last year," said Stovall. Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 20 new lows.

☆ Fed's Harker says ready to downshift to 25-basis-point rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker reiterated on Wednesday that he's ready for the U.S. central bank to move to a slower pace of interest rate rises amid some signs that hot inflation is cooling off. To get there, Harker, who will hold a voting role on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, is ready to raise the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate beyond the current 4.25%-4.50% range. It will take a while to achieve that goal, Harker said. Harker said the U.S. economy should grow 1% this year, adding that he doesn't believe it will fall into a recession. Harker also expects the U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 3.5%, will rise to 4.5% this year before falling back to 4% in following years.

☆ Stock futures are flat as investors look ahead to economic data, Federal Reserve speeches
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were flat Wednesday night as investors awaited economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve leadersFutures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9 points, or 0.03%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.03% and 0.05%, respectively. Bank stocks such as JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo slid, weighing on the broader market. "The data continue to confirm sharp declines in inflation," said Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group. On Thursday, investors will weigh more economic data that could give further clues as how much the Fed may raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting.

☆ Fed's Harker says he is ready to downshift to 25-basis-point rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

To get there, Harker, who will hold a voting role on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, is ready to raise the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate beyond the current 4.25%-4.50% range. Harker said he is expecting the Fed to get rates over 5% and added that uncertainty about the stopping point is why the central bank should slow the pace of its rate hikes. At the Fed's last meeting, officials penciled in a 5.1% stopping point for rate rises this year. Harker said the U.S. economy should grow 1% this year, adding that he doesn't believe it will fall into a recession. Harker also expects the U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 3.5%, will rise to 4.5% this year before falling back to 4% in following years.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Goldman Sachs isn't too worried about a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In their 2023 outlook, Goldman analysts noted that disagreement about the economic forecast abounds within their own circles. Bill Dudley, a former Goldman Sachs partner and president of the New York Fed, puts the chance of recession this year at about 70%. Goldman analysts say that even with a sour economy, they predict the 2023 investment return on the S&P 500 will most likely be between 9-12%. The Fed’s days of three-quarter-point rate hikes are behind us, said Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker in a blog post Friday. Better-than-expected price data shows that the Fed’s aggressive and economically painful rate hikes are successfully slowing the economy and fighting inflation, he said.

☆ Morning Bid: Disinflation elation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Whether the Federal Reserve policymakers will publicly chime with the disinflation narrative or not, many acknowledge their policy stance is now 'data dependent' from here. And unless disavowed of it by hard evidence, markets already assume the inflation battle is as good as won. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower. China's inflation rate crept back up last month too but it remains below 2% and annual producer price inflation is still in negative territory. Although UK bond yields and sterling skidded lower on Wednesday in mix of recession concerns and energy price disinflation hopes, there was better news on the retail front today.

☆ Missing jobs mystery puts Fed on back foot
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A study published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve last week said 10,500 new jobs were added in the second quarter of 2022. Yet the national statistics bureau had previously reported a total over the same period of more than 1 million. Those seemingly missing jobs put the Federal Reserve, which uses the job market as a signal in its fight against inflation, on the back foot. The BLS jobs report includes job counts from both a household survey and a survey of businesses’ payrolls. The federal government releases monthly jobs data, but revises its numbers once a year as part of a process known as benchmarking, which factors in more comprehensive data only released quarterly.

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