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☆ Treasury yields dip as investors await October private payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell more than 4 basis points to 4.232%, after briefly rising above 4.3% in the previous session to notch its highest level since July. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down over 2 basis points at 4.094%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday, with investors poised to scrutinize economic data for further clues on the rate cut outlook. Ahead of the all-important October jobs report at the end of the week, investors will monitor a fresh batch of economic data on Wednesday. The Fed joined several other major central banks in easing monetary policy when it lowered rates by 50 basis points in September.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce Department, Traders, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Private sector added twice as many jobs as expected in October
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Private sector hiring blew past expectations in October, another sign that the US labor market remains on solid footing, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. Non-governmental employers added 233,000 jobs in October, a sharp acceleration from the 159,000 net increase reported for September, according to ADP’s latest National Employment Report. Wednesday’s gains throttled economists’ expectations for job growth to slow to a mere 108,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 143,000, FactSet estimates show. Pantheon Macroeconomics is sticking with its forecast of 100,000 payroll gains, according to an investors note sent Wednesday. And while a resurgence in the labor market could raise concerns about a reacceleration in inflation, October’s ADP data showed otherwise, Richardson said.

Persons: Nela Richardson, Hurricane Helene, ADP’s tabulations, ” Richardson, Richardson, “, Irma, ” Samuel Tombs, Milton …, Wednesday’s, ” Organizations: CNN, ADP, Boeing, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Pantheon, Companies, Federal Reserve Locations: Hurricane Milton, Carolina, Florida, Milton, South Atlantic

☆ Why the October jobs report on Friday could sink the market's soft-landing narrative
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.

Persons: September's, —, Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI

☆ U.S. dollar rally pauses before jobs data, Aussie droops on RBA outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

An Australian one dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this illustration photo taken February 12, 2016. The dollar hovered close to a three-month peak on Wednesday in a big week for macroeconomic data that could reveal the path for U.S. monetary policy. The Australian dollar edged closer to a three-month trough after some stickiness in inflation suggested a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is unlikely this year. The ADP employment report is due later in the day, ahead of the potentially crucial monthly payrolls report on Friday. "The U.S. dollar continues to garner strong support as markets adjust their rate path expectations," said James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera.

Persons: James Kniveton, Kniveton, Donald Trump, Rachel Reeves, Keir Starmer, Liz Truss Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Reserve Bank, Australia's, U.S, Treasury, Republican, European Central Bank, Sterling, Labor Locations: States, U.S, Australia, Europe

☆ Gold marches to record as U.S. election jitters fuel safe-haven rush
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A gold ingot and gold coins are seen in this illustration picture taken November 17, 2017. "Gold is very much being anchored on the U.S. election outcome ... "If we see hot inflation numbers or a strong jobs report, then there could be a derailment in gold prices," Wong added. In addition, Goldman Sachs lowered its gold forecast from $3,080 to $3,000 by December 2025, but maintained its bullish stance. On the retail front, Indian gold buyers overlooked record high prices, purchasing for the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals, hoping for continued price rallies amid a cooling stock market.

Persons: Gold, Kelvin Wong, OANDA, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Wong, Friday's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: U.S, Asia Pacific, U.S . Labor Department

☆ 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.3% as investors look to key data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over 2 basis points at 4.304%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by less than 1 basis point at 4.146%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to trade at multi-month highs as investors looked to upcoming economic data. On Tuesday investors will be watching out for fresh consumer confidence insights and home price data as well as the latest JOLTS job openings figures. Those are the first of a series of labor market related data releases slated for the week.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Traders, Fed

☆ The stock market’s best six-month period starts this week, especially for small caps
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 typically advances about 7% from November to April, compared to the index's average 2% rise from May to October, according to CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. This year's market strength follows a standout 20% gain for the S & P 500 in 2023's "best six months" period, he noted. "This double-dose of double-digit returns has caused investors to wonder if the market has used up its energy reserves and may be headed for tough times," Stovall wrote. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has advanced more than 22% in 2024. Stocks were bhigher on both Friday and Monday , with the S & P 500 trading within a hair's breath of this month's all-time high of 5864.67.

Persons: Sam Stovall, Russell, Stocks, Stovall Organizations: Stock Traders, Research, Investors Locations: U.S

☆ How to dance the earnings two-step: Recognize initial stock distortions and then act
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +18 min

For all we know, the yield curve may simply be going through the birthing of an un-inverted yield curve. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet YTD Search used to be so simple. META YTD mountain Meta Platforms YTD Meta Platforms has run big ahead of the quarter. AMZN YTD mountain Amazon YTD Let's get to the two toughest of the week, Amazon and Apple. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: let's, Eli Lilly, nonfarm payrolls, Carl Quintanilla, batty, Jeff Marks, Waymo, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Department's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, Trump, Warren Buffett, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Microsoft, Apple, Treasury, Federal Reserve, charlatans, Honeywell, Twitter, Club, Gemini, YouTube, Google, Donner Party of cannibalization, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Merck, Pfizer, Tech Titans, Meta, Amazon Web Services Locations: Wall, cyclicals, California, Philly

☆ 14 earnings reports and major economic data will be the stock market movers this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +15 min

The Street is looking for Stanley Black & Decker sales of $3.8 billion in the third quarter and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05. The Street is looking for Linde sales of $8.35 billion in the third quarter and EPS of $3.89. In addition to the headline results and forward guidance, overall organic sales growth and data center energy power demand will be focus items for investors. The Street is looking for sales of $94.47 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter and EPS of $1.55. The Street is looking for Coterra sales of $1.3 billion in the third quarter and EPS of 34 cents.

Persons: That's, It's, Stanley Black, Decker, we're, We're, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Amy Hood's, Brian Niccol, Wednesday's, Linde, it's, we'll, Phillips, Horton, Kraft Heinz, SIRI, Estee Lauder, BUD, Cardinal Health, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Stephanie Keith Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Fed, PCE, YouTube, Justice, AMD, GE Healthcare, Reality Labs, Microsoft, Management, Starbucks, U.S, Presidential, Linde, Apple Intelligence, Amazon, Services, Coterra Energy, WM, Cadence Design Systems, Labor, PayPal, BP, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Cruises, JetBlue, HSBC, Devices, Grill, Electronic Arts, EA, Gross, Caterpillar, Brinker International, AFortive Corporation, Illinois Tool, Coinbase, eBay, EBAY, Booking Holdings, MGM Resorts, MGM, Bausch Health, LIN, Merck, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Altria, Cruise, Myers Squibb, Comcast, Mobileye, Cheniere Energy, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Intel, United States Steel, Juniper Networks, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Dominion Energy, Charter Communications, LyondellBasell Industries, Cardinal, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Eaton, Corning, Illinois, Bristol, New York City

☆ How America's Economy Managed to Avoid Recession, Job Market Disaster
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.

Persons: We're, —, Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America

☆ The biggest pressing market questions with two months to go in rewarding year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-26 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.

Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells

The 2024 World Series showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees begins Friday — a clash between two coasts and two rosters of star-studded players. The matchup features the titans of the National and American Leagues in 2024, along with Major League Baseball's most talented players, on two legendary franchises with historical baseball legacies. It will be the 12th time these teams have met in the World Series, the most of any two teams in the league. Game 1 will be played at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles at 8:08 p.m. ET/5:08 p.m. PT Friday. All games are also available on MLB.TV, though you’ll need authentication with a participating pay TV provider to watch.

Persons: It's, Aaron Judge Organizations: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, National, American Leagues, Major League, Yankees, Dodgers, MLB, Dodger, Fox, New York, Hulu, Live, YouTube Locations: . New York, Los Angeles, New, New York

☆ World Series ticket prices are the second-highest ever—a Yankees home game could run you nearly $5,000
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tickets for the 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers — two iconic franchises with deep histories and star-studded lineups — come with the kind of premium price tags you'd expect from teams in the biggest U.S. markets. The average price for a World Series ticket in the secondary market is $3,887, according to ticket reseller TicketIQ. The teams — which sport two of the three highest payrolls in the league — are meeting in the World Series for the first time since 1981, marking their 12th championship series matchup. Average prices for home games in New York and Los Angeles are $4,875 and $3,146, respectively — the second- and third-highest average home game prices since 2010. The lowest price available for the series on TicketIQ is $1,156 for Game 2 in Los Angeles.

Persons: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, — Organizations: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers, Yankees, All Locations: New York, Los Angeles

☆ Conflicting economic signals are causing confusion in the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek

☆ The Hater’s Guide to the 2024 World Series
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( Grant Brisbee | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +10 min

AdvertisementPlease note that this isn’t the same as the worst World Series matchup possible. In the actual 2024 World Series, there will be several future Hall of Famers playing, most of them in their absolute prime, doing unreal things to and with baseballs. It’s a very good World Series if you like to watch excellent players and displays of baseball ability. Been there, done thatThis World Series is a Simpsons episode from Season 43 where Homer gets a new job. But even though it has the potential to be the best World Series, it’s guaranteed to be the most annoying World Series possible.

Persons: it’s, I’m, Homer, It’s, Bobby DeNiro, Luke Hales, Fox, haven’t, They’re, they’ll, Craig Calcaterra smartly, Yogi Berra’s, Berra, Mick, Billy Martin didn’t, ”, that’s, There’s, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Mookie Betts, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Michael King, Shohei Ohtani, Sean Reilly, Orlando Ramirez, Mary DeCicco, Katelyn Mulcahy, Carmen Mandato Organizations: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, of Famers, Yankees, Dodgers, Alabama, Auburn, Fox, Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, Brewers, 49ers, Fenway Sports Group Holdings, Liverpool, RFK Racing, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, of Fame, San Diego Padres, Padres, Dodger, Athletic, Images, Getty Locations: It’s, Los Angeles

☆ We're buying more shares on the dip in this Fed rate-cut stock tied to housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Following Tuesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 145 shares of HD, increasing its weighting to 1.65% from 1.14%. Dow stock Home Depot has dropped $18 per share — or a little more than 4% — since making a new high of $418 last Wednesday. Some of this decline is probably due to profit-taking since the stock has gone straight up since Sept. 6. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, nonfarm payrolls, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Dow, Home, Federal, UBS, CNBC

☆ The bond market is selling off after traders got their Fed forecasts wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.

Persons: Bonds, —, Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta

☆ What we learned in the LCS round: Bullpen dominance, Soto significance, money talks
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Rustin Dodd | Sam Blum | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +8 min

Bring on the most anticipated World Series in recent memory. The bullpens could decide the World SeriesThe Yankees’ series victory over the Guardians offered two gifts for Yankee fans:The club’s first World Series appearance since 2009. Not bad for an outfielder who will turn 26 on Friday — on the opening day of the World Series. This is not the roster that Los Angeles thought would carry them to the World Series way back in March. Can Freddie Freeman get back on the field for the World Series?

Persons: Mariano Rivera, Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase, Clase, Rivera, Nobody, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, Soto, Alex Gordon, Jayson Werth, Shin, Soo Choo, salivating, Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis — Soto, It’s, He’s, Ted Williams, you’re, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Alex Vesia, River Ryan, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, James Paxton, Tommy Edman, Walker Buehler, Freddie Freeman’s, Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith, they’d, they’re, Freddie Freeman, Harry, Freeman, Max Muncy, Dave Roberts, Luke Hales Organizations: Major League Baseball, Dodgers – Yankees, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Dodgers, Yankees, League, Yankee, Yankees ’, Guardians, Washington Nationals, Baseball, Astros, Padres, Mets, Dodger, Atlanta Braves Locations: Angeles

☆ Yankees, Dodgers to square off in World Series: 5 storylines to watch
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Marc Carig | Tyler Kepner | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +8 min

For the first time in 43 years, two of baseball’s bluebloods are squaring off in the World Series. Finally, it will happen with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani making their respective World Series debuts against one another. Of course, baseball’s postseason is often defined by upsets, and not since 2013 has the World Series featured a matchup of each league’s top team. The Juan Soto ShowcaseThe World Series begins Friday, which is Juan Soto’s 26th birthday. When the Yankees eliminated the Guardians on Saturday night, the last three clubs standing — the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets — were also one-two-three in payroll when the season began.

Persons: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Shohei, Nick Cammett, Ohtani, Judge, he’s, Aaron Boone, Dave Roberts, Roberts ’, Roberts, Boone, Clay Holmes, Jason Miller, —, Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm, Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, Juan Soto’s, Soto, Tim Britton, there’s, Steve Cohen, Rustin Dodd, Sean M Organizations: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, National League, American League, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Baseball, NL, Mets, MLB, Kansas City Royals, East Locations: Los Angeles, pinstripes, Los Angeles and New York, Ohtani

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected; jobless claims dip
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A customer during the grand re-opening of a Century 21 department store in New York, US, on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. Retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August and better than the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast, according to the advanced report. Excluding autos, sales accelerated 0.5%, better than the forecast for just a 0.1% rise. The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2% on the month as measured by the consumer price index. Despite the decline in initial filings, continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged higher to 1.867 million.

Persons: Dow Jones, Helene, Milton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Labor Department, Stock, Boeing Locations: New York, Florida, North Carolina, U.S, Michigan

☆ Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150 per dollar
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. central bank kicked off its easing cycle with an aggressive 50 basis points at its last policy meeting in September. The dollar got a lift after Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead, citing recent economic data. That has cast doubts over when Japan's central bank will next tighten policy.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Kazuo Ueda, Shigeru Ishiba, Tony Sycamore Organizations: U.S, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Traders, Boeing, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Caixin Global, Treasury, IG, China National, Congress Locations: U.S, Japan, China

☆ Don't let September's jobs report fool you — the labor market is still deteriorating at a worrying rate, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.

Persons: —, bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This is while S&P 500 valuations remain high, putting the market at risk for big declines. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued. That means the S&P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, —, Merrill Lynch, St, Louis Fed, Wolfenbarger, September's, it's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, Conference Board, Global, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Nvidia Locations: St

☆ Ron Insana: September consumer inflation report was a mere blip in a wider cooling trend
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After the latest blast of consumer inflation data, traders are facing a conundrum around how they should interpret the monthly numbers. September's consumer price index report topped the Street's expectations, rising 0.1% from the month prior and increasing at a pace of 2.4% over the past 12 months. Still, the annual inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Relative to expectations, September's CPI number does not imply a reacceleration of inflation. Rather, the rate of consumer inflation continues to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than some had hoped for.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nonfarm payrolls, Austan Goolsbee, Ron Insana Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Social Security, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar bulls suffer setback as traders add to Fed cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar fell from two-month highs hit overnight versus its major peers after signs of weakness in the labor market boosted the case for quicker Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bets for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Nov. 7 increased to 83.3% from 80.3% a day earlier, with the remaining odds for policy to stay steady, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A week earlier, there was a 32.1% chance of a half-point reduction and 67.9% probability of a quarter-point cut. The dollar added 0.06% to 148.68 yen , inching back towards Thursday's high of 149.58 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 2. The Australian dollar held firm at $0.67395 after rebounding from its lowest since Sept. 16 at $0.6702 on Thursday.

Persons: Tapas Strickland, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: China

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