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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "much much too high" despite the rate hikes. Investors now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for any clues on potential rate cuts this year. Shares of Magellan jumped 13.7%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 44 new highs and 110 new lows.
Yields on U.S. short-dated Treasury bills , jumped sharply as investors sold off bonds, which mature as early as June. That weighed on shares of high-growth companies, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), which fell about 0.5% each. ET, Dow e-minis were down 82 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 15.25 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 73.25 points, or 0.55%. Chip-gear maker Skyworks Solutions Inc's (SWKS.O) shares tumbled 11.7% after forecasting current-quarter revenue and earnings below estimates. Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Qorvo (QRVO.O) fell 0.9% and 2.3%, respectively.
Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) dropped 10.5% and led declines on the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) after the company cut its margin forecast. They were also among the top drags on the Nasdaq Composite index (.IXIC). Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), Qorvo (QRVO.O) and Corning (GLW.N) fell between 0.9% to 2%. That weighed on shares of high-growth companies, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), which fell about 0.3% each. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and 10 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 20 new highs and 54 new lows.
Also, weaker Chinese manufacturing data was outweighing support from OPEC+ supply cuts slated for this month. In currencies, the dollar index rose 0.383%, with the euro down 0.45% to $1.097. In Treasuries, yields on benchmark 10-year notes were up 9.7 basis points to 3.549%, from 3.452% late on Friday. The yield on the 2-year note was last was up 7.3 basis points at 4.1366%. Gold gave up all of its gains in volatile trading after the better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data.
Crude oil prices were lower as weak economic data from China and expectations of another Fed interest rate hike on Wednesday outweighed support from OPEC+ supply cuts due this month. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields added to gains throughout the session, adding to a boost from the release of economic data Monday. In Treasuries, benchmark 10-year notes were up 12.4 basis points to 3.576%, from 3.452% late on Friday. The 2-year note was last was up 7.5 basis points to yield 4.1386%, from 4.064%. Gold prices edged lower as the dollar rose after better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data.
The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) has lagged the broader S&P 500 (.SPX) this year with a 13% decline, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) has already lost 20% in its worst performance since 2009. "The retail sales are kind of a disappointment," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. Traders stuck to bets the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark rate in May by another 25 basis points after the retail sales data. Among other big-ticket earnings, healthcare conglomerate UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.N) beat estimates for quarterly profit and raised its annual forecast, pushing its shares up 0.4%. BlackRock Inc's (BLK.N) quarterly profit also beat analysts' estimates as investors continued to pour money in the world's largest asset manager's various funds.
The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) surged 3.3% to a one-month high, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) rose 0.8%. Bank stocks lag S&P 500 this yearDampening the mood, however, data showed retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, raising fears of an economic slowdown. "The retail sales are kind of a disappointment," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. Following Friday's retail sales data, traders stuck to bets the U.S. central bank will raise rates by another 25 basis points in May. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 14 new highs and 25 new lows.
Wall St ends mixed as inflation data comes into focus
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The bellwether S&P 500 ended essentially unchanged. "With huge inflation data tomorrow, Fed minutes coming out soon and earnings right around the corner, traders are taking a wait and see approach to see how the inflation data comes in." Analysts expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings falling 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) ended in the red, while energy (.SPNY) and financials (.SPSY) enjoyed the largest percentage gains. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 118 new lows.
S&P 500 edges higher as investors look to CPI
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
With a lack of market moving catalysts, investors looked ahead to Wednesday's consumer price index (CPI) for any evidence that the long, slow inflation cooldown continues. Beyond CPI, investors are eyeing first-quarter reporting season, which surges from the starting gate this Friday with results from three major banks, Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N). Analysts expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings falling 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, energy (.SPNY) and materials (.SPLRCM) were enjoying the biggest percentage gains, while communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) were in the red. The S&P 500 posted eight new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 56 new highs and 86 new lows.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.03%. Treasury yields slipped further, with the benchmark 10-year yield touching lows last seen in September as the weak data supported the notion of a "Fed pause." The dollar index rose 0.07%, with the euro down 0.25% to $1.0925. Gold prices briefly touched their highest level since March 2022 before reversing course after a spate of soft U.S. economic data.
Traders' bets are almost equally split between the Fed pausing its rate hikes in May and another 25 bps hike, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Communication services (.SPLRCL) and information technology (.SPLRCT) led the gains among the S&P 500 sector indexes, all of which rose, except utilities (.SPLRCU). Bank of America (BAC.N) and UBS (UBS.N) now see the Fed funds rate target peaking at 5-5.25% in May compared to earlier forecasts of 5.25-5.5%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.62-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 3.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and five new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 17 new highs and 27 new lows.
Core CPI without food and energy prices increased 0.5% after rising 0.4% in January. Year over year core CPI gained 5.5% vs 5.6% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast monthly CPI and core CPI up 0.4%. So they're going to have to respond to the banking crisis that's probably just not over yet." If the Fed’s worried about saving face or coming off as wishy washy or worried about losing credibility with the market, they're going to raise by 25 basis points.
NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.
Traders drastically increased their bets of a 50-basis-point rate hike in March after Powell's comments, with money market futures pricing a more than 40% chance of such a move, from 23% before the remarks. Meanwhile, Fed fund rates were seen peaking at 5.56% in September compared to 5.47% earlier. Investors are awaiting data later this week that is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 in February, compared with the much stronger-than-expected 517,000 jobs reported in January. Among individual stocks, Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) tumbled 10.5% after the electric automaker unveiled plans to sell bonds worth $1.3 billion. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 30 new highs and 77 new lows.
Hawkish Powell puts 50 bp Fed rate hikes back on table
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
"Powell makes it clear the Fed would react accordingly if the data suggests that inflation continues to move in the wrong direction. It was very clear to the market that the Fed is not going to equivocate in terms of data that suggests inflation continues to climb higher or remain sticky." "Six percent (terminal rate) would be a little higher than it is likely. ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT"The focus of the Fed is trying to get inflation down to 2%. "I prefer just one more 25 basis point rate hike, but probably we're going to get three 25 basis point rate hikes."
The week also saw the benchmark S&P 500 break through its 50- and 200-day moving averages, two closely watched technical levels. [1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. Fourth-quarter earnings season is on the final stretch, with all but seven of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. This would imply the S&P 500 entered a three-quarter earnings recession in the closing months of 2022, per Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 79 new highs and 57 new lows.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. The week also saw the benchmark S&P 500 break through its 50- and 200-day moving averages, two closely watched technical levels. Fourth-quarter earnings season is on the final stretch, with all but seven of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. This would imply the S&P 500 entered a three-quarter earnings recession in the closing months of 2022, per Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 49 new lows.
Coming out of the Internet bubble in 2003, Microsoft implemented a dividend for the first time in its then nearly three-decade history. Over the next decade, the software giant slowly hiked that dividend annually, while its shares languished mostly in the 20s. But despite the recent struggle in Alphabet shares, and fears over what lies ahead for the dominant search engine, big investors say a dividend isn't the best use of cash to convince investors to stay the course. Like some of its tech peers, Alphabet could pay a small dividend to "check the box for institutional investors," Meeks said. "Last thing you want to do is commit yourself to a dividend and then all of a sudden retrench it."
Futures cut some gains after data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. "Markets are tracking the earnings reports overnight from Nvidia," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. ET, Dow e-minis were up 39 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15 points, or 0.38%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 106.25 points, or 0.88%. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a correction within the next three months even though they expect the S&P 500 (.SPX) to climb 5% by year-end. Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) fell 4.4% after the vaccine maker reaffirmed its annual sales forecast of $5 billion for its COVID-19 vaccines despite its fourth-quarter sales exceeding estimates.
January CPI accelerates, but trend easing
  + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +9 min
Data for December was revised higher to show the CPI gaining 0.1% instead of the 0.1% fall as previously reported. “It's not going to necessarily influence the Federal Reserve one way or another. "You have a little bit of a negative reaction because these numbers are not going to take the pressure off the Federal Reserve. "The real issue is what is the Federal Reserve going to do, it's pretty widely expected that they're going to raise rates both at their March meeting as well as their May meeting. "There's not much there for the Federal Reserve to give them some sort of a justification for taking their foot off the brake and reducing interest rates."
The data tentatively eased concerns about the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path after a strong January employment report rattled markets last week. Weighing on the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) indexes, Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) extended losses from the previous session to fall 5.6%. The S&P 500 communication services sector (.SPLRCL) sank 2.6%, while Alphabet shares eyed their worst weekly performance since November. Ralph Lauren Corp (RL.N) gained 1.2% after beating quarterly sales expectations, while peer Tapestry Inc (TPR.N) soared 5.4% on a strong annual profit forecast. More than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings so far, and 69% of them have beaten estimates, according to Refinitiv data.
Oracle moved its AI and data unit under its cloud business amid a leadership shakeup. Oracle is moving its data and artificial intelligence unit under its cloud business and making its health initiatives a major focus, an internal email shows. The reorganization means Oracle is "consolidating all of the new data and AI initiatives back into OCI," according to an internal email. Don Johnson, the former Oracle Cloud Infrastructure boss once named by Ellison as a potential contender for co-CEO, recently left his latest role leading Oracle Health and Artificial Intelligence, Insider previously reported. After about six months, he returned to run engineering for Oracle Health after the company bought Cerner in 2022.
U.S. labor costs increased at their slowest pace in a year in the fourth quarter as wage growth slowed, bolstering expectations of the Fed slowing the pace of its interest rate increases. "As the Fed meeting begins today, they'll be looking at every index that could give them a better judgment on inflation and this is one of them," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities LLC. "Labor costs are still high, but this means costs have come down, and that's a key factor for future wage inflation." United Parcel Service (UPS.N) jumped 4% on strong quarterly earnings, boosting the Dow Jones Transport Average index (.DJT). The S&P index recorded four new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 32 new highs and 14 new lows.
Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes were set to open higher on Tuesday after wage growth data pointed to easing inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. U.S. labor costs increased less than expected last quarter as wage growth slowed, suggesting that the central bank's aggressive approach to taming inflation was taking hold. "Labor costs are still high, but this means costs have come down, and that's a key factor for future wage inflation." The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell after the labor costs data, and was last at 3.50% compared to 3.55% on Monday. The world's largest parcel delivery firm United Parcel Service(UPS.N) also added 1.9% on strong quarterly earnings.
The S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) is up 4.2% year-to-date, slightly lagging the rise for the broader index (.SPX). Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets and UBS Global Wealth Management are among the Wall Street firms recommending energy stocks. He said he is slightly overweight the energy sector, including shares of Chevron and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N). But earnings are expected to decline 15% this year, the biggest drop among the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Energy companies executed $22 billion in share buybacks in the third quarter, just over 10% of all S&P 500 buybacks.
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