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☆ Americans want prices to go down, but deflation could spark a wave of unemployment, top economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Falling prices could bring on a spike in unemployment and wage cuts, according to Paul Krugman. The Nobel economist pointed to pressure from consumers to lower high prices. The US appears to be entering a soft landing, he said, where inflation eases without a rise in unemployment. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAmericans hate high prices — but there's a reason people should hope the cost of goods and services don't drop back to pre-pandemic levels, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.

Persons: Paul Krugman, — Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business

☆ Opinion | Can We ‘Make America Affordable Again’? Should We?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

What do they mean by making America affordable again? Depending on the interpretation, that’s either something that has already happened or a really bad idea. Before I get there, a word about falling inflation. I get many comments to the effect that whatever official statistics may say, Americans don’t see inflation coming down. Here, for example, are the results of a survey conducted by the New York Fed:

Persons: —, Donald Trump’s Organizations: Republican Party, America, New York Fed

☆ Project 2025 and the New Spoils System - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

I’m not going to speculate about the effect of Saturday’s attempted assassination of Donald Trump on the 2024 presidential race. But two things are true at the same time: Political violence is unacceptable, full stop. And the efforts by Trump and his most hard-core supporters to undermine American democracy continue to be unacceptable. As Republicans head into their convention this week, it’s important to understand the potential ramifications of both their official platform, about which I wrote last week, and their unofficial aspirations, embodied by Project 2025. How radical is the Project 2025 agenda?

Persons: I’m, Saturday’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Trump’s, MAGA, Kevin Roberts, ” Organizations: Heritage Foundation, Trump, Leadership Locations: American

☆ Trump's trade and tax policies are the new hot-button topic dividing economists and market experts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Experts hold drastically different views, creating a new hot-button topic that will continue to be debated up until the election in November. The camp staunchly opposed to Trump's policiesThe base argument against Trump's fiscal platform is that tariffs are, by nature, inflationary. AdvertisementIn a recent op-ed for the Financial Times, he cited the "benign" impact Trump's first-term tariffs had on the US economy. Looking ahead to a new term, Yardeni thinks Trump's most extreme pursuits will likely be watered down by Congress. AdvertisementRepublican donor Kyle Bass — who serves as the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management — has taken a different tact in his support of Trump's fiscal agenda.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Trump's, Trump, he's, David Kelly, Larry Summers, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Steve Eisman, Kyle Bass —, Hayman Capital Management —, Joseph Stiglitz, Biden Organizations: Service, Donald Trump White House, Business, Trump, House Republicans, Foundation, New York Times, Peterson Institute, Yardeni Research, Financial Times, Congress, CNBC, Hayman Capital Management, Oxford Economics Locations: China, It's

☆ Opinion | Why Does the G.O.P. Despise America?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Compared with previous platforms, it dials back references to abortion — downplaying what is, for Republicans, a losing issue. Here, Trump is clearly employing sleight of hand in an effort not to be seen as autocratically inclined. But at this point, if you believe that, I have a degree from Trump University I’d like to sell you. For today, however, I want to focus not on what the platform proposes but what it says about the G.O.P. Republicans may try to brand themselves as patriots, but they truly appear to despise the nation they live in.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald Trump’s, Trump Organizations: Republican National Committee, Republicans, Trump University I’d, “ Locations: America

☆ The US battle against Chinese trade could hurt the Americans it's supposed to protect, Harvard professor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewPoliticians who champion trade restrictions on China are in for a rude awakening, Kenneth Rogoff warns. According to the Harvard professor, barriers on free trade with the Asian powerhouse are a recipe for economic fallout. "Moreover, low-income US consumers have been among the biggest beneficiaries of low-cost Chinese imports." Just months ago, President Biden announced that tariffs would rise on $18 billion worth of Chinese advanced tech products, including solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Persons: —, Kenneth Rogoff, Rogoff, Biden, Donald Trump, he's, Paul Krugman, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Service, Harvard, Project Syndicate, Business, Republican, Allies, China, Foundation Locations: China, Washington, Beijing

☆ Opinion | A Beautiful Inflation Report
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

One of my go-to economic data experts emailed on Thursday morning about the latest inflation report, which showed prices actually falling in June and up only 3 percent over the past year. It was, he declared, “beautiful.”Your aesthetic sense may vary, but we’ve now had two months of really good price data, enough to puncture the bubble of pessimism that, um, inflated early this year. Many economists argued, however, that the bad data was just noise, largely reflecting one-time price resets at the start of the year. Note that the Federal Reserve focuses not on the Consumer Price Index but on an alternative measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index, which isn’t in yet for June. And since the Fed is supposed to skate to where the puck will be, not where it is right now, there’s now an overwhelming case for interest rate cuts.

Persons: we’ve, there’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer

☆ Why Are People Unhappy About a Strong Economy? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The past two years have been very good for the U.S. economy. Unemployment has crept up a bit, but not by a lot, and the employed share of Americans in their prime working years is higher than, to make a random comparison, it was at any point during the Trump years. At the same time, inflation has come way down, defying the pessimistic predictions of many economists. Here, for example, is a comparison of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation with a September 2022 prediction from Harvard’s Jason Furman — a widely respected economist whom I single out only because he was both very mainstream and admirably explicit (no good deed goes unpunished), predicting that if unemployment remained low, inflation would still be around 4 percent at the end of 2025:

Persons: Jason Furman — Organizations: Trump, Federal Locations: U.S, Unemployment

☆ President Biden, Do the Right Thing and Step Aside - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Here are three true things about President Biden: He has done an excellent job as president. And he should step aside as his party’s nominee for president, probably in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Anyone who has been following American politics and policy has to be aware just how remarkable Biden’s achievements have been. But Biden, despite having only a razor-thin legislative majority, enacted major investments in infrastructure, advanced technology and green energy. Almost as many voters give credit for infrastructure to Trump — whose repeated promises to come up with a plan became a running joke — as to Biden, who got the job done.

Persons: Biden, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Trump Locations: American, America

☆ Prominent Biden loyalists who have suggested he should step down
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | Thibault Spirlet | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Read previewFor months, Democrats have rallied behind President Joe Biden, insisting that in private moments he's energetic and up for the job. "Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight, and he didn't do it," McCaskill said. Thomas FriedmanThomas Friedman, a journalist and close friend of Biden, said in an opinion piece that the president should step aside. Nicholas KristofNicholas Kristof, a New York Times columnist, addressed Biden directly in an opinion piece, calling on him to step down. Paul KrugmanPaul Krugman, a New York Times opinion columnist, said he "very reluctantly" joined others in calling on Biden to step aside.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Biden's, David Axelrod David Axelrod, Obama, Joe Raedle, David Axelrod, Biden, Axelrod, Jason Mendez, Getty, Jon Favreau, haven't, Joe Biden —, Dan Pfeiffer, Tommy Vietor, Claire McCaskill Claire McCaskill, NBC Claire McCaskill, McCaskill, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Thomas Friedman Thomas Friedman, Michael Cohen, Thomas Friedman, Friedman, Donald Trump, Harris, Van Jones, Scott Dudelson Van Jones, Jones, Joy Reid, Ben Rhodes Ben Rhodes, Ben Rhodes, Nicholas Kristof Nicholas Kristof, Jamie McCarthy, Getty Nicholas Kristof, Kristof, Gretchen Whitmer, Sen, Sherrod Brown, Gina Raimondo, Evan Osnos, Thos Robinson, Osnos, Joe Scarborough, Noam Galai, Scarborough, Paul Krugman Paul Krugman, Paul Krugman, he's, Krugman, Chandler West, Joe Organizations: Service, Democratic National Convention, Business, GOP, Biden, CNN, Democratic, NBC, MSNBC, Gov, New York Times, Convention, CBS, Getty, Trump, Global Citizen, The New York Times, Chandler West Chandler West, White House, Axios, White Locations: America, California, Michigan, United States, Axios

☆ Trump's wide-reaching tariff plan will hurt average Americans and only help the top 1%, Nobel-winning economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump's proposed tariffs would benefit only the wealthiest Americans, Paul Krugman wrote in a new op-ed. Goldman Sachs also sees higher tariffs triggering sizable Fed interest-rate hikes, Goldman Sachs says. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDonald Trump has pitched sweeping tariffs as a win for the US consumer, but only the wealthiest Americans will benefit from rising trade barriers, Paul Krugman wrote in The New York Times. In Tuesday's opinion piece, the Nobel-winning economist took aim at Trump's recently floated idea to replace the US income tax with higher import duties.

Persons: Trump's, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, —, Donald Trump, Krugman Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday to talk about interest rates, which many voters are really frustrated about. People are saying high rates make it hard to buy a home or car or deal with debts. We eventually need to get into the underlying economics — why are interest rates high, and will they stay there? But first, on how interest rates influence people’s views, we need to deal with an odd aspect of the situation. High interest rates are, indeed, a burden on some Americans, especially first-time home buyers.

Persons: Peter Coy, Paul, we’ve, They’re, they’re, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Krugman, Peter Organizations: Fed, University of Michigan, Biden

☆ Opinion | Freedom’s Just Another Word for Not Paying Taxes
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

This action may have shocked some old-line conservatives who still thought of Heritage as a serious institution, but Heritage is, after all, just a think tank. It’s not as if upside-down flags were being flown by people we expect to defend our constitutional order, like Supreme Court justices. Why would billionaires support Trump? Stock prices — which Trump predicted would crash if he lost in 2020 — have soared. High interest rates, which are a burden on many Americans, are if anything a net positive for wealthy people with money to invest.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, MAGA, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Biden, Trump Organizations: Heritage Foundation, Trump, Heritage Locations: Silicon Valley

☆ Opinion | Why You Shouldn’t Obsess About the National Debt
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The United States government is more than $34 trillion in debt. Did you know that our government owes $34 trillion? That’s $34 trillion! So I thought it might be useful to talk about how I see the issue of public debt and why it doesn’t loom larger in my concerns. isn’t unprecedented, even in America: It’s roughly the same as it was at the end of World War II.

Persons: I’m, hypocrites Organizations: United Locations: United States, America, Japan

☆ Opinion | Should Biden Downplay His Own Success?
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The performance of America’s economy over the past two years has been remarkable, especially given the dire predictions of many observers. Remember the economists who forecast a recession in 2023? Remember all those warnings that getting inflation down would require years of high unemployment? Stocks are way up since President Biden took office. Yet there’s still a lingering conventional wisdom that says Biden shouldn’t trumpet his economic record.

Persons: Biden, there’s, Jimmy Carter’s Organizations: Washington

☆ Opinion | What if This Is Our Last Real Election?
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Some of the Americans protesting the war in Gaza have turned on President Biden. The answer I’ve been hearing is that the goal is to send a message: If Gaza costs Biden the election, Democrats will understand that in the next election they will need to rethink their seemingly reflexive support for Israel’s government and commit as a party to the protection of Palestinian rights. There are many questions one could ask about this argument, but from a certain perspective, the most important one for American voters may well be: What next election? There’s a very real possibility that if Trump wins in November it’ll be the last real national election America holds for a very long time. And while there’s room for disagreement here, if you consider that statement to be outrageous hyperbole, you haven’t been paying attention.

Persons: Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, Netanyahu, it’ll, haven’t Organizations: Trump, America Locations: Gaza, Israel

☆ Opinion | The Stench of Climate Change Denial
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-27 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

This may sound a bit weird, but when I think about my adolescent years, I sometimes associate them with the faint smell of sewage. You see, when I was in high school, my family lived on the South Shore of Long Island, where few homes had sewer connections. Most had septic tanks, and there always seemed to be an overflowing tank somewhere upwind. Climate change. Along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts, The Washington Post reported last week, “sea levels have risen at least six inches since 2010.” This may not sound like much, but it leads to rising groundwater and elevated risks of overflowing tanks.

Organizations: The Washington Post Locations: Shore, Long, Nassau County, Atlantic, The

☆ Opinion | America Is Still Having a ‘Vibecession’
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

If Donald Trump wins the election, the main reason will surely be that a majority of voters believe that America’s economy is in bad shape. By normal measures, however, the U.S. economy isn’t in bad shape. So much, you may say, for official statistics: If people feel that they’re doing badly, well, when it comes to the economy, the customer is always right. But here’s the kicker: When asked, most Americans don’t say that they’re doing badly. And respondents are typically much more positive about the economy in their own state than they are about the nation’s as a whole.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump Locations: U.S

☆ Opinion | Return of the Inflation Truthers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation swaps, which allow Wall Street in effect to make bets on future inflation, are implicitly projecting just 2.1 percent inflation over the next year. And it’s really hard to deny that inflation is way down from its peak. Yet many Americans don’t believe that inflation has fallen, and there are a number of commentators with large audiences insisting that there has been no improvement. Instead, they became “inflation truthers,” insisting that the benign numbers were fake. Now the inflation truthers are back.

Persons: don’t, ”

☆ What the Dow Jones Hitting 40,000 Points Tells Us - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Last week, for the first time in history, the Dow Jones industrial average closed above 40,000. Unlike many right-wing commentators, I don’t consider the stock market the best indicator of the economy’s health, or even a good indicator. The background here is the gap between what we know about the actual state of our economy and the way Trump and his allies describe it. Unemployment has now been below 4 percent for 27 months, a record last achieved in the late 1960s, ending in February 1970. U.S. economic growth over the past four years has been much faster than in comparable major wealthy nations.

Persons: hyperpartisanship, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Dow

☆ Opinion | Beware the Pettiness of the Powerful
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Donald Trump isn’t exactly Don Quixote, but he does have a thing against windmills. Indeed, Trump’s animus toward wind power is one of the strangest obsessions of a man with many unusual preoccupations (toilets! Over the years, he has asserted, falsely, that wind turbines can cause cancer, that they can cause power outages and that wind energy “kills all the birds” (cats and windows do far more harm). Now he says that if he wins in November, on “Day 1” he’ll issue an executive order putting the brakes on offshore wind farm construction. Over the past 15 or so years we’ve seen revolutionary progress in the technology of renewable energy; the idea of an economy reliant on solar and wind power has gone from hippie fantasy to realistic policy goal.

Persons: Donald Trump isn’t, Don Quixote, Trump, It’s

Derek Arthur andGovernor Ron DeSantis of Florida recently signed a bill that bans both the production and the sale of lab-grown meat. In this audio essay, the columnist Paul Krugman argues that DeSantis’s actions represent a window into the modern Republican Party, a party in which “politics is about displaying what kind of person you are and what your allegiance is, as opposed to actually getting policies that work in place.”(A full transcript of this audio essay will be available within 24 hours of publication in the audio player above.)

Persons: Derek Arthur, Ron DeSantis, Paul Krugman Organizations: Republican Party Locations: Florida

☆ Biden's new tariffs show he's willing to play hardball as China ramps up exports, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Biden's tariffs on China are a gesture to show the US will not accept another wave of Chinese imports, Paul Krugman wrote in an op-ed. The previous "China shock" was damaging to US employment, given the localized nature of US industry. China is relying on heavy production to manufacture its way out of an economic slump. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. "They're a shot across the bow — a signal that the United States won't accept a second so-called China shock, a surge of imports that could undermine crucial parts of the administration's agenda."

Persons: Paul Krugman, Biden's Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business Locations: China, United

☆ Why Biden Is Putting Tariffs on Chinese Imports - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

His signature legislative achievement, the Inflation Reduction Act — which is actually mainly about fighting climate change — contains several nationalistic provisions designed to limit subsidies primarily to manufactured goods produced in North America. And the Biden administration is now imposing tariffs as high as 100 percent on Chinese exports of electric vehicles and taxes on other imported goods, including semiconductors and batteries. The immediate impact of these tariffs will be small, because the United States currently imports very few of the affected goods from China. They’re a shot across the bow — a signal that the United States won’t accept a second so-called China shock, a surge of imports that could undermine crucial parts of the administration’s agenda. China’s exports of manufactured goods to the United States surged beginning in the 1990s.

Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, weren’t Locations: U.S, North America, United States, China, United

☆ Opinion | Biden’s Approval Is Low, Except Compared With Everyone Else’s
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In fact, I’m monolingual myself, even though my academic work was largely focused on international trade and finance. In my defense, the great bulk of global economic research is published in English; and in general, Americans’ lack of language skills is less important than their insularity, their relative unfamiliarity with what happens and how things work in other nations. Yet many Americans, even supposedly knowledgeable commentators, often seem unaware of both the ways other nations are similar to us and the ways they are different. I’ll come back to that surprising fact, and what it tells us, in a minute. First, let’s talk about some other international comparisons that seem relevant to the current situation.

Persons: Biden Locations: United States

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