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REUTERS/Umit BektasMarch 31 (Reuters) - An international arbitration ruling on March 23 prompted the shutdown of Iraq's northern crude oil exports through Turkey and sent oil prices back towards $80 a barrel. Iraq's federal government says its state-owned marketed SOMO is the only party authorised to manage crude exports through Ceyhan. Turkey was also asked to pay 50% of the discount at which KRG oil was sold, three sources said. According to a Turkish source, Iraq's initial demand was for about $33 billion. This comprised 370,000 bpd of KRG crude and 75,000 bpd of federal crude, a source familiar with pipeline operations said.

Separately, in a televised interview on Wednesday, Erdogan downplayed the significance of the meeting with Simsek, saying such meetings were ordinary. A senior government official told Reuters the AKP was somewhat divided with some members opposed to Simsek's return, and described the outcome of the Erdogan meeting as "undesirable". The party may now need to revise its economic platform ahead of the election campaign, he added. The AKP declined to comment on whether it was revising its economic strategy ahead of the vote. Two recent polls by MAK and Turkiye Raporu show the opposition presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu between 4 and 9 percentage points ahead of Erdogan.

JANDARIS, Syria, March 22 (Reuters) - Hussein Mankawi has little hope he will ever rebuild his home and food distribution businesses in the north-west Syrian city of Jandaris after they were reduced to rubble by last month's deadly earthquake, wiping out his life's work. There is nothing but tents," he said, standing by the mangled ruins of his home in the rebel-held region. The Feb. 6 earthquakes were the worst modern-day natural disasters to strike Syria and Turkey, killing more than 56,000 people across the two countries. The U.N. says more than 100,000 people have been displaced in the region since the first quake struck on Feb. 6. "We were looking for a better life," he said as he waited to be let through the border with his family.

☆ Erdogan's AKP party signals return to more orthodox economic policies in draft election manifesto -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

ANKARA, March 16 (Reuters) - The draft election manifesto of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party marks a return to more orthodox, free market economic policies, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. According to the sources familiar with the draft, the AK's manifesto for the upcoming election will make no reference to Ankara's more recent economic policies but instead to return to his party's prior, more orthodox approach. "The approach to the economy is very similar to that of the 2002 AK Party election manifesto. He said Erdogan's final approval of the manifesto would be required and so far he had not conveyed any dissenting opinion. If he takes office, a radical change is inevitable in economic policies, the bureaucracy and cabinet members to work in harmony with him," the AKP official said.

☆ Erdogan's party pivots back to orthodox economic policies in draft manifesto -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Turkey plans to ratify Finland's NATO bid ahead of May polls -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Amid growing tensions with Sweden, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan signalled for the first time in January that Ankara could give a green light to Helsinki ahead of Stockholm. "It is highly likely that the necessary step for Finland's NATO membership will be completed before (parliament) closes and the election is held," the official said. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan indicated that he would send ratification of Finland's NATO membership to parliament soon, saying that he would "keep his promise". After that, we will fulfil our promise," Erdogan told reporters on Wednesday, when asked whether he would send ratification of Finland's NATO bid to Turkish parliament next week. "Positive messages will be given to Finland's president during his visit," the second official said.

☆ Turkey plans to ratify Finland's NATO bid ahead of May polls, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A senior Turkish official told Reuters that Finland's bid would be approved independently from that of Sweden. Niinisto, who will visit Turkey on March 16-17, said he believed Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will give his blessing to Finland's NATO bid when the two meet. Erdogan indicated that he would send ratification of Finland's NATO membership to parliament soon, saying that he would "keep his promise". After that, we will fulfil our promise," Erdogan told reporters on Wednesday, when asked whether he would send ratification of Finland's NATO bid to Turkish parliament next week. "Positive messages will be given to Finland's president during his visit," the second official said.

[1/5] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with people in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Kahramanmaras, Turkey February 8, 2023. "The earthquake definitely changes our opinion because the first responders and tents were very late to arrive," he said. How big a challenge Erdogan faces is difficult to determine, given the lack of polling in the region. One party official said they would "re-direct" residents' focus to efforts to rebuild and stress no one but Erdogan could do this quickly. The region voted 65% or more for the AKP and its nationalist ally the MHP in the last election in 2018.

Mithat Sancar, co-leader of the left-wing Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), parliament's third biggest, made the appeal late on Monday after the six-party opposition bloc announced that Kemal Kilicdaroglu would be its candidate. "The open support of the HDP would draw (negative) reactions, notably from the IYI Party and its grassroots," he said of the nationalist party, second-biggest in the alliance. "HDP support is extremely critical," he said, but added it could undermine backing elsewhere. In campaigning, Erdogan will likely play up alleged links and the HDP's opposition role, analysts say. The second official, who was not authorised to speak on the record, said some Kurdish voters would not back the opposition alliance due to IYI's involvement.

Under a new proposal following a weekend of political intrigue, two popular mayors would serve as vice presidents should the opposition win in the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. With polls showing a close race, the vote is the biggest challenge Erdogan has faced in two decades in power. Instead, Aksener proposed that either Ekrem Imamoglu or Mansur Yavas, mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, be the candidate. "She has conveyed the proposal that the two mayors serve as executive vice presidents," Zorlu said. The opposition has failed in previous national votes to pose a serious challenge to Erdogan, whose AKP came to power in 2002.

Speaking at party headquarters in Ankara, the leader of Turkey's right-wing IYI Party, Meral Aksener, said the other five parties in the alliance had put forward Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), as their presidential candidate. But Aksener said her party, the second biggest in the alliance, would not "bow down" to pressure to accept him. "It is no longer a platform through which potential candidates can be discussed but a table that works to rubber-stamp a single candidate," she said. "Just like over the past 20 years, the opposition turned out to be President Tayyip Erdogan’s greatest asset," Piccoli wrote. "With the main opposition bloc in disarray, Erdogan is now much better positioned to prevail on 14 May."

After serving as mayor of Istanbul, he stepped onto the national stage as head of the AK Party, which triumphed in 2002 national elections. Western allies initially saw Erdogan's Turkey as a vibrant mix of Islam and democracy which could be a model for Middle East states struggling to shake off autocracy and stagnation. Faced with a struggling economy, a weak currency and a countdown to this year's election, Erdogan sought rapprochement with rivals across the region. Now he must convince voters he is the leader to rebuild Turkey from the rubble after this month's earthquake. That will be, in all likelihood, to the detriment of the ruling AK Party and President Erdogan," said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies.

"With the effect of the earthquake, inflation may now reach somewhere in the range of 40-50%," the government official added, speaking anonymously as he was not authorised to speak publicly on the issue. More than two million people are estimated to have left the quake zone, pushing up rents in other provinces, economists said. ADDITIONAL BUDGETThe quake also gives the government an additional challenge on the budget, long one of the strongest areas of the economy. Net borrowing of up to 661 billion lira ($35 billion) would be possible under the 2023 budget for this year but the official said that now won't be enough. An additional budget will be needed," the official said.

☆ Erdogan leaning towards holding Turkish elections in June -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Days after the quake struck on Feb. 6, killing more than 42,000 people in Turkey, an official said it posed "serious difficulties" for holding elections on time. Now those close to the president say the government has turned against the idea of a postponement. Before the disaster, Erdogan's popularity had been eroded by the soaring cost of living and a slump in the lira. A senior AKP official also said the view had gained weight that elections should be held on June 18. Another senior Turkish official also said the idea of postponing the elections had been shelved.

[1/2] Rescuers work at the site of a collapsed building, in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Hatay, Turkey February 14, 2023. "I don't think it's time to talk about elections," an AKP official told Reuters, citing the state of emergency. He said the priority was to set an election date and get the High Election Board to start preparations. The AKP official expected the disaster to erode votes for the ruling alliance given the suffering, and the loss of life and property. The constitution sets a two-term limit for presidents, but they can seek another term if parliament calls an early election before the second term expires.

Shunned by the West, Assad has been basking in an outpouring of support from Arab states that have normalised ties with him in recent years, notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia sent its first reported plane of aid to Assad-controlled Aleppo, a notable gesture from a Gulf state still at odds with Syria's president. 'BREAK THE SIEGE'The UAE has pledged $50 million in aid to Syria, without saying in which part of Syria it will be spent. Once a backer of Assad's foes, the UAE has been pressing other Arab states to re-engage with Damascus, according to two Gulf sources, despite opposition from its strategic ally the United States. Tunisia, which cut off ties with Syria a decade ago, has said it will strengthen relations with Damascus since the quake.

☆ Earthquake could cost Turkey up to $84 billion - business group
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Nevzat Devranoglu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ANKARA, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Turkey's worst earthquake in almost a century has left a trail of destruction that could cost Ankara up to $84.1 billion, a business group said, while a government official put the figure at more than $50 billion. A report published at the weekend by the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation put the cost of the damage at $84.1 billion - $70.8 billion from the repair of thousands of homes, $10.4 billion from loss of national income and $2.9 billion from loss of working days. Nonetheless, economists and officials estimated the quake would cut economic growth by up two percentage points this year. The government forecast growth at 5% in 2022 and had estimated growth at 5.5% in 2023 before the quake. Turkey is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this summer - the biggest challenge to Erdogan during his two decades in power.

[1/8] Seho Uyan, who survived a deadly earthquake, but lost his four relatives, sits in front of a collapsed building in Adiyaman, Turkey February 11, 2023. Turkey said about 80,000 people were in hospital, with more than 1 million in temporary shelters. U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths described the earthquake as the region's worst event in 100 years, predicting the death toll would at least double. He praised Turkey's response, saying his experience was that disaster victims were always disappointed by early relief efforts. It has killed 24,617 inside Turkey, and more than 3,500 in Syria, where tolls have not been updated since Friday.

☆ Ceyhan loadings of BTC pipeline oil could begin within two days, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary Manual loadings while BTC control room repaired -officialKirkuk loadings resumed on TuesdayISTANBUL, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Turkey's Ceyhan port could resume loading oil from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline in one or two days using "manual" procedures, a Turkish official and a shipping source said on Saturday. It is the storage and loading point for the BTC pipeline which carries oil from Azerbaijan as well as the Kirkuk pipeline from Iraq. The Kirkuk pipeline resumed flows on Tuesday evening and a tanker docked at Ceyhan to load that day. The control room for BTC pipeline loadings there was damaged, the Turkish official said, but added loadings were expected to resume "manually" while the control room is repaired. Loadings could begin within a day or two days, a shipping source said, quoting information received from the terminal.

[1/6] Rescue workers try to rescue a 15-year-old girl trapped under the rubble, in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Kahramanmaras, Turkey February 10, 2023. The death toll exceeded 24,150 across southern Turkey and northwest Syria a day after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said authorities should have reacted faster to Monday's huge earthquake. Earlier, the World Food Programme said it was running out of stocks in rebel-held northwest Syria as the state of war complicated relief efforts. A similarly powerful earthquake in northwest Turkey in 1999 killed more than 17,000 killed in 1999. In the Samandag district of Turkey, rescuers crouched under concrete slabs and whispered "Inshallah" - "God willing" - as they carefully reached into the rubble and plucked out a 10-day-old newborn.

[1/4] Survivors rest while a woman reacts at a hospital in the aftermath of an earthquake, in Kahramanmaras, Turkey February 10, 2023. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem 1 2 3 4Authorities say some 6,500 buildings in Turkey collapsed and countless more were damaged. The U.S. Agency for International Development will provide $85 million in urgent humanitarian assistance to Turkey and Syria. SYRIA OVERWHELMEDIn Syria, relief efforts are complicated by a conflict that has partitioned the country and wrecked its infrastructure. The Syrian government views the delivery of aid to rebel-held areas from Turkey as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

President Tayyip Erdogan's government has blocked social media in the past and focused in recent months on fighting what it calls "disinformation", which it said prompted the block on Wednesday. Erdogan's ruling party had said a law was needed to tackle false accusations on social media, and it would not silence opposition. A Reuters investigation last summer showed how the mainstream media has become a tight chain of command of government-approved headlines, while the smaller independent and opposition media face the brunt of regulatory penalties. The Twitter block also drew an angry response from opposition DEVA party leader Ali Babacan, a former economy minister and Erdogan ally. The pro-Kurdish HDP party said Twitter had played a crucial role in organizing aid for those affected by the quakes and that blocking social media would only cause more death.

☆ First aid convoy bound for NW Syria from Turkey nears border -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] Rescuers search for survivors at the site of a collapsed building, in the aftermath of an earthquake, in Latakia, Syria February 9, 2023. REUTERS/Yamam al Shaar/File PhotoFeb 9 (Reuters) - The first convoy of humanitarian assistance for people in northwest Syria since Monday's devastating earthquake is en route to the southern Turkish border with the hope of crossing on Thursday, two aid sources told Reuters. A Turkish official said the Bab al-Hawa border crossing was open for humanitarian aid and authorities will open a few more crossings after two days if security is sound. The United Nations has described access to the opposition-controlled area of Syria through Bab al-Hawa as a "lifeline" for some 4 million people who it says rely on humanitarian assistance. U.N. aid from Turkey served 2.7 million people in northwest Syria per month last year compared with 43,500 people a month who received aid from routes within Syria since August 2021.

Summary After initial quiet, opposition criticism growsComplaints of slow response, lack of suppliesErdogan visits scene, acknowledges early problemsISTANBUL, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Criticism of Turkey's earthquake response mounted on Wednesday, with the political opposition and people in the disaster zone accusing the government of a tardy and inadequate relief effort. They cracked infrastructure and flattened thousands of buildings, causing hardship for millions and leaving many homeless in bitterly cold weather. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition party, had earlier in the week said the disaster was a time for unity, not criticism. Speaking in Kahramanmaras, near the epicentre of the earthquake, Erdogan said: "We had some problems in airports and roads but we are better today". Selim Temurci, spokesman for the opposition Future Party, said AFAD's efforts were insufficient due to personnel shortages and the vast expanse of destruction.

The government declared a "level 4 alarm", calling for international assistance, and a three-month state of emergency in the most affected provinces. 'BLACK SWAN'Reconstruction costs are likely to run to many billions of dollars, straining an economy already hit by 58% inflation. The six-party opposition said only that the government should work "without discrimination" to address the disaster that hit regions including Kurdish communities and Syrian refugees. But Ugur Poyraz, Secretary General of centre-right nationalist IYI Party, said he had toured severely hit areas and as of Tuesday morning seen no sign of emergency rescue workers. "The response of Erdogan's government to this natural disaster might shape the attitude of the floating voter but the loyalties of most voters are already determined."

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