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Watch CNBC's full interview with Cowen's Oliver Chen
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Cowen's Oliver ChenCowen analyst Oliver Chen joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss retail earnings numbers, service inflation driving recessionary trends in consumer discretionary spending, and Macy's agile inventory and promotional management capacity.
Cowen's Oliver Chen explains why he likes Macy's
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCowen's Oliver Chen explains why he likes Macy'sCowen analyst Oliver Chen joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss retail earnings numbers, service inflation driving recessionary trends in consumer discretionary spending, and Macy's agile inventory and promotional management capacity.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWalmart is picking up higher-income consumers, something to pay attention to, says Cowen's ChenOliver Chen, Cowen senior retail analyst and managing director, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his thoughts about Walmart's quarterly earnings results, potential storm clouds in the retail sector, and more.
Luxury resale will boom in 2023 as more brands take control of their second-hand markets. The personal luxury market is expected to grow 3%-8% over the next year, according to Bain & Company. This year, without those stimulus checks, and amid a possibly pending recession, there will be a shift in who is buying luxury items, according to Oliver Chen, a managing director in the retail and luxury section for investment bank Cowen. Insider chatted with four experts, from former merchandisers to retail analysts, to understand how the luxury retail market is bound to change in 2023. Next year, experts expect to see more luxury brands taking control of their own second-hand markets.
Costco will likely raise its membership fee in the next six to 12 months, Wall Street analysts say. Costco executives have said a fee increase is "a question of when, not if." That's according to Cowen analysts led by Oliver Chen, who wrote in a note published Monday that a Costco membership fee raise "could be likely within 6-12 months." "We believe a membership fee increase is imminent in FY23 as Costco has not raised fees in 5.8 years yet has historically increased fees by $5 for regular memberships every 5.5 years," the analysts wrote. Costco's current membership price puts it in line with other warehouse clubs:
Costco is uniquely situated in an inflationary environment and could stand to gain as consumers get increasingly price conscious, according to Cowen. Analyst Oliver Chen named the stock a best idea for 2023 with a price target of $650, which implies a 35% upside from Thursday's close. "Costco is well-positioned in an inflationary environment and could also benefit from increased trade down traffic as higher income consumers shop for quality value," he said in a note to clients. Its member base skews toward high-income customers more than Target or Walmart does, according to Cowen data. But Chen said Costco could also gain a wider swath in an economic downturn as consumers increasingly look for value, which is something the wholesaler has become known for.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShoppers are back for Black Friday this year, says Cowen's Oliver ChenOliver Chen, Cowen retail analyst, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss which retailers stand to gain this holiday season and whether investors should consider buying retail stocks.
Retail sales data and corporate earnings have offered investors a mixed picture, but the landscape has some bright spots for investors, according to Cowen. "There are many crosscurrents with the consumer," Oliver Chen, senior equity research analyst at Cowen covering retail and luxury goods, said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street " Friday. "All three offer very strong value to the consumer," Chen said. Ulta's a beauty retailer – all things beauty all in one place, that's a very good category. Chen said his team also likes recommending retail stocks that have inflation resistance, like luxury brands, as well as stocks like Costco, "which offer exceptional value."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTracking the bifurcation of consumer spending between luxury and budget goodsOliver Chen, analyst at Cowen, and Scott Mushkin, analyst at R5 Capital, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss consumer discretionary spending towards high-end versus budget goods, inflationary pressure on middle income consumers and holiday season purchase predictions.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're most excited about Target this holiday season, says Cowen's ChenOliver Chen, Cowen senior retail analyst and managing director, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss which company he sees winning the retail battle this holiday season, Chen's macroeconomic take going into the holidays and more.
Investors want a clearer sense of how much excess stuff retailers have sold off — and how deep they may have to discount to keep merchandise moving. Retailers are under pressure to clear out inventory and start fresh in the next fiscal year. Walmart and Target were among the retailers that shocked investors with significant jumps in inventory levels in the first quarter, which ended April 30. Kohl's swung from having too little inventory last year to having ballooning inventory in the second quarter of this year. Excess inventory could downgrade the shopping experience this holiday season at some stores, too.
It also follows some 60 Tapestry store openings in China over the last two years. Research from real estate firm Savills also shows 55% of the world's luxury store openings last year took place in China. It saw China sales slide 32% for the quarter ended July 2 from the same period a year earlier. China sales generally account for around a fifth of its overall sales. Coach's luxury market share in China is also more than double that of Michael Kors and more than triple that of Ralph Lauren and Tory Burch, according to Euromonitor data.
After largely shopping online during the pandemic, people are returning to stores in greater numbers. Shoppers want the best of both worlds: the convenience of e-commerce and the excitement of experiences they can't get online. Now, retailers are balancing services they'd first rolled out as safety measures, like curbside pickup, with personalized shopping experiences and events. Making connections between stores and e-commerce is critical as shoppers browse in a variety of ways for the same transaction. Insider's retail team selected them based on nominations and our reporting on the retail industry.
Richard Galanti said that there is now a "light at the end of the tunnel" in regards to inflation. Sign up for our newsletter to receive our top stories based on your reading preferences — delivered daily to your inbox. Cowen and Company analyst Oliver Chen asked specifically about the "light at the end of the tunnel," regarding the initial signs that inflationary pressures are weakening. He said that once freight and raw material costs started to decline, Costco was proactive about asking suppliers for price reductions. "But all in, pressures from higher commodity prices, higher wages and higher transportation costs and supply chain disruptions, they're still present, but we are seeing just a little light at the end of the tunnel," he said.
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