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☆ How to maximize Series I bond redemptions amid falling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Enes EvrenInvestors piled into Series I bonds amid record yields, and some are now eyeing an exit for higher-interest alternatives. After reaching 9.62% annual interest in May 2022, I bond yields have declined with falling inflation, reaching 4.3% interest for new purchases from May through October. However, the U.S. Department of the Treasury still needs two months of CPI readings before the next I bond rate change. "It's falling back in line with I bond inflation rates we had before the pandemic," said Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com. While longer-term investors may like the current 0.9% fixed rate portion of I bond yields, short-term investors may prefer higher-paying alternatives.

Persons: Enes, Ken Tumin, Jeremy Keil, Keil, Tumin, " Keil Organizations: U.S . Department of, Treasury, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Keil Financial Partners Locations: Milwaukee

Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationTOKYO/LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against most currencies on Thursday ahead of U.S. inflation data that will shape the Fed's policy direction, although the prospect of higher energy costs pushed it to a one-month high against the yen. "Though you could argue it the other way given the euro zone recession risk if energy stays higher," she added. The impact of higher energy costs were also a factor in the softer yen, as resource-poor Japan is a major oil importer. A break above 145 would open the way potentially to 148 "if we get the U.S. dollar flexing again after the CPI," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, it's, Jane Foley, We've, Foley, that's, Tony Sycamore, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Kim Coghill, Sharon Singleton, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, CPI, Federal Reserve, Rabobank, U.S . Treasury, ECB, IG, People's Bank of China, New, Swiss, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, New Zealand, Tokyo, London

☆ The rising cost of shelter represented 90% of last month’s inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

After steadily increasing, year-over-year shelter inflation has moved down for four consecutive months, from 8.2% in March to 7.7% in July. “Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024,” the researchers wrote. Total inflation will go down when shelter inflation dropsCurrently, there is a disconnect between shelter inflation, which has remained higher, and other components of inflation that have fallen. For renters, shelter inflation includes rent and utility payments. The researchers at the San Francisco Fed crafted models combining several measures of local shelter and rent inflation to help explain how recent trends might affect the path of future shelter inflation.

Persons: San Francisco Fed, “, ” Organizations: DC CNN, Index, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco . Housing, Housing, Federal, San Francisco, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco .

☆ CPI: Consumer prices rose by 3.2% annually in July, picking up for the first time in 13 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —For the first time in more than 12 months, the pace of consumer price hikes accelerated on an annual basis. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the year through July, up from June’s 3% annual increase, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from June and was up 4.7% from the year-ago period. July is the the fourth consecutive month that annual core CPI has eased, and the 4.7% rate landed 0.1 percentage points below consensus expectations. Shelter prices rose 0.4% month on month and were up 7.7% for the year ending in July.

Persons: “ Don’t, ”, Julia Pollak, Joe Biden, ” Biden, “ We’ve, Kurt Rankin, Dow, “, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Tamara Charm, Brandon Bell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Federal Reserve, PNC, Nasdaq, RSM US, CNN, San, Services, “, McKinsey, Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: Minneapolis, June’s, San Francisco, Austin , Texas

"We think that at this point there is some profit taking and retrenchment in the short term on the card," said Aadil Zaman, partner at Wall Street Alliance Group. However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday said the combination of still-elevated inflation and continued economic growth meant further rate increases are likely. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due on Thursday, is expected to show a slight year-over-year acceleration. Seven of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by gains in energy stocks (.SPNY), that increased 1.6%, touching a near six-month high, tracking a jump in crude oil prices. Of the 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported results as of Tuesday, 78.6% beat analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

Persons: Aadil Zaman, Patrick Harker, Michelle Bowman, Monday, It's, Zaman, Brendan McDermid Big, Wells, Penn Entertainment's, Walt Disney's, Uber, advancers, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Penn, Dow, Nasdaq, . Federal Reserve, Wall, Nvidia, Apple, Wall Street Alliance Group, Philadelphia Fed, Traders, FedWatch, Index, CPI, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of America, Dow Jones, Casino, Walt, Walt Disney's ESPN, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York City, Bengaluru

☆ Fed decision trade: What JPMorgan traders see the market doing, based on these scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street is eagerly awaiting the latest Federal Reserve decision, as traders weigh whether the market's stunning rally this year can continue. This a reconfiguration of CPI that should affect prints beginning in October," JPMorgan traders wrote. 33%-34% chance — hike and continue: Under this outcome, the Fed would raise rates and signal that further tightening is ahead. Right now, the market sees only about a 30% chance of one more rate hike this year, JPMorgan traders said. Less than 1% chance — Fed signals tightening campaign ended in May.

Persons: Jerome Powell, June's, Skip, Powell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, PPI

☆ These are the 3 key things that will impact the stock market in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-15 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

A lot was riding on these important measures of inflation after the scorching-hot ADP jobs report last week. Here are 3 things you need to know for the week ahead: 1. Industrial production and capacity utilization, also out Tuesday, shines a light on manufacturing, which attributes about 12% to U.S. GDP. Six months is generally considered to represent a balance between supply and demand in the housing market. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Stocks, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Jeff Miller, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Goldman, Baker Hughes, Ally, Kinder Morgan, Zions, Philip Morris, Abbott, ABT, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Scott Olson Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Housing, CPI, Halliburton, HAL, Johnson, of America Corp, Lockheed, Lockheed Martin Corp, Novartis International AG, PNC Financial Services Group, Inc, PNC, Charles Schwab Corp, Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, BK, Synchrony, Interactive, Goldman Sachs Group, U.S . Bancorp, ASML, Citizens Financial, T Bank Corp, Northern Trust Corporation, Horizon National Corp, Business Machines Corp, IBM, United Airlines, Netflix, Steel Dynamics, Alcoa, Discover Financial Services, Crown, International Corp, Equifax Inc, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Liberty Energy Inc, Philip Morris International Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, American Airlines Group Inc, Travelers Companies, SAP, Nokia Corp, Truist Financial Corporation, Company, McLennan Companies, Infosys Technologies Ltd, Newmont Mining Corp, Fifth Third Bancorp, Pool Corporation, Alfa Laval, Webster Financial Corp, Blackstone, Financial Corp, PPG Industries, CSX Corp, CSX, Berkley Corp, Swift Transportation Holdings Inc, American Express Co, AutoNation Inc, Interpublic, of Companies, Autoliv Inc, Huntington Bancshares, Financial Corporation, Roper Technologies, Comerica, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Getty Locations: U.S, Las, ZION, Horton, Freeport, Marsh, ALFVY, W.R, Lemont , Illinois

☆ US inflation cooled in June for the 12th straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

US annual inflation slowed to 3% last month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The June annual rate is down from 4% in May and landed slightly below economists’ expectations for a 3.1% increase, according to Refinitiv. Starting in March 2022, the central bank rolled out 10 consecutive interest rate hikes to tame inflation, finally hitting pause last month. And June of last year was monumental: Annual inflation soared to 9.1%, the highest in more than 40 years largely because of record-high energy costs. So the Fed and economists have been keyed in on what’s happening with core inflation, particularly core services.

Persons: Olivia Newton, ” William Ferguson, “, Joe Biden, ” Sung Won Sohn, Lael Brainard, ” Brainard, Brainard, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, Sohn, ”, —, Nicole Goodkind Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Grinnell College, CNN, Federal Reserve, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Core PCE, National Economic Council, Economic, of New, BLS, Kansas City Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Iowa, of New York

☆ This Club tech stock is a big winner Tuesday and among our top performers this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stick with Salesforce Club holding Salesforce (CRM) is a big winner Tuesday, soaring more than 3% in midday trading, to $219.75 a share. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, CPI, Labor, Federal Reserve, Fed, Salesforce Club, ISI, Tactical, Web Services Locations: —, Wells Fargo

☆ Australia's consumer inflation hits 13-month low, adding to rate pause case
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, June 28 (Reuters) - Australia's consumer inflation slowed to a 13-month low in May, driven by a sharp pullback in fuel, while a measure of core inflation also cooled in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.6% in the year to May, marking the smallest increase since April last year. That was down from 6.8% the previous month and well below market forecasts of 6.1%. The core trimmed mean measure of CPI rose by an annual 6.1%, a seven-month low and again down from 6.7% in April. Wednesday's data showed the most significant drivers were an 8.4% jump in housing and a 7.9% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Persons: Tony Sycamore, Marcel Thieliant, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG, Bank, Capital Economics, Thomson

☆ Rent has finally stopped rising. It's great news for tenants and the economy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US rental growth is now below pre-COVID norms, giving renters more options. Rental growth in the US is now below pre-COVID norms, Jay Parsons, the SVP, chief economist and head of industry principals at RealPage, told Insider. Throughout the pandemic, soaring rental prices — brought on by population growth and heightened demand — have helped to drive inflation to historic levels. With lower inflation, renters can have increased confidence in a more stable rental economy while giving renters more options. "I think over the next year and a half, we're gonna see very limited rent growth," Parsons said.

Persons: —, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Zillow, we're Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: metros

☆ Morgan Stanley expects the stock market to plunge. Others aren't so sure.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

An American flag hangs behind traders working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 11, 2019 in New York City. Morgan Stanley, for example, has adopted a downbeat view for the months ahead. Falling prices, Morgan Stanley explained, can cut into revenue growth and weigh on earnings. "This should begin to hit asset prices by the end of this month and carry into the fall," Morgan Stanley strategists said. To Stockton, the S&P 500 could soon trade as high as 4,510, or about 3% higher than current levels.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Morgan Stanley's bearishness, Rick Bowmer, Tom Lee, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Capitol, Financial Services, Committee, Fed, New York Stock Exchange, NYSE, Advance, Bank of England, Patterson Companies, Winnebago Industries, Bloomberg, Manheim Locations: American, New York City, Stockton, Salt Lake City, London, China, Europe, New York, Los Angeles

☆ Working Americans have bigger life expenses to worry about than egg prices: QI's DiMartino Booth
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorking Americans have bigger life expenses to worry about than egg prices: QI's DiMartino BoothDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, and Daniel Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management managing director, join 'Last Call' to break down the latest round of CPI numbers and discuss how those numbers may play into the Fed's next rate hike decision.

Persons: DiMartino Booth Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Organizations: Research, Asset Management

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Daniel Greenhaus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Daniel GreenhausDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, and Daniel Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management managing director, join 'Last Call' to break down the latest round of CPI numbers and discuss how those numbers may play into the Fed's next rate hike decision.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Organizations: Research, Asset Management

☆ The stock market is headed for a critical week as investors brace for new inflation data and a key Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Next week is critical for the stock market as investors brace for CPI data and a Federal Reserve meeting. Fundstrat's Tom Lee said a low inflation reading could boost stocks as it would bolster a Fed pause in interest rate hikes. That would be a positive surprise because it would bolster the Fed's potential decision to pause interest rate hikes this month and in July. "If this plays out, the Fed's pause will morph into a data dependent mode, where the bar is raised for further [interest rate] hikes," Lee said. "We expect investors to see this as a green light for risky assets, which means equity investors will not be fighting the Fed."

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, —, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, CPI

BEIJING, June 9 (Reuters) - China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery. "The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but recent indicators show demand is rapidly weakening with exports, imports and factory activity falling in May. Food price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 1.0% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 0.7%.

Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Dan Wang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Australia, Reuters, Capital Economics, Hang Seng Bank China, Bank of China, China's, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Europe, China

The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.1% year-on-year, the lowest rate since February 2021, and cooling from the 0.7% annual gain seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Reuters GraphicsPBOC TESTEDOverall inflationary pressures remain low with the core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, up 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month. The statistics bureau attributed the weaker consumer inflation to the base effect. Vegetable prices extended their decline to 13.5% and pork, a major driver of CPI, slowed its price growth to 4.0% from 9.6% in March. "Securing income growth and improving consumer confidence remain key policy priorities for delivering a more sustainable consumption recovery," said Pang.

☆ Stocks rise as U.S. inflation trends lower, bond yields slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The odds of the Fed cutting rates later this year also increased. Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.908%. The dollar index eased 0.20% and equity markets rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. U.S. crude futures fell 1.6% to settle at $72.56 a barrel, and Brent settled down 1.3% at $76.41 a barrel.

The likelihood the Fed cuts rates later this year also increased. "The Fed does not aim get rate policy right just in time, they aim to get it right over time." Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.904%. Gold prices slipped as the CPI data was viewed as mixed and triggered profit-taking by some investors.

Equity markets initially rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the world (.MIWD00000PUS) edged down 0.06%, while stocks on Wall Street wavered after an early rally. CHINA CRACKDOWNForeign exchange markets had been treading water while markets weighed policymakers' rhetoric against traders' conviction that U.S. interest rates should fall. Emerging markets currencies rallied on Wednesday following the U.S. data, with MSCI's index (.MIEM00000CUS) up 0.15%. U.S. crude recently fell 2.06% to $72.19 per barrel and Brent was at $76.00, down 1.86% on the day.

☆ Instant View: US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."

☆ US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."

☆ Housing inflation slows, with potentially bullish implications for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Most notably, shelter inflation — the chart below measures the annual rate of CPI shelter inflation — slowed for the first time since February 2021. If future data bears this out, it would be a material milestone in the Fed's war on inflation. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on May 3, 2023. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-5.25 percent, saying that the Fed "remains highly attentive to inflation risks."

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

☆ China's consumer, factory prices skid as demand falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangIn contrast to surging prices globally, China’s retail and producer inflation has remained anaemic as the consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover from their pandemic hit. Analysts now think consumer inflation could fall short of Beijing’s official targets this year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%. GRAPHIC: China's inflation skids, hereFALLING SHORTThe government has set a target for average consumer prices in 2023 to be about 3%. “We think consumer price inflation will rebound in the coming months as the labour market tightens again and will peak at 2.3% in early 2024,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

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