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Bank of America has named the European companies whose stocks are expected to perform robustly in the face of a possible economic downturn. It comes amid increasing signs that the European economy could be headed for a period of extended recession. Bank of America's proprietary Style Cycle model also shows that the region is facing a "recession phase." The forward cash yield measures how much cash a company is expected to generate for its shareholders over the next year compared to its current market price. The cash yield also includes returns through buybacks.
Persons: Intesa Sanpaolo, Paulina Strzelinska Organizations: of America, of, KBC, Eni, Nordea Bank, Barclays, Aviva, BNP, Bank, America's Locations: Europe, Belgium, Italy, Finland, Repsol, Spain, United Kingdom, France, buybacks, industrials
Norway central bank raises rate to 15-year high, with more to come
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The facade of Norway's central bank, also known as Norges Bank, in Oslo, Norway. The central bank predicted the policy rate would rise to 4.25% during the autumn. "If we do not raise the policy rate, prices and wages could continue to rise rapidly and inflation become entrenched," Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement. "Today's hawkish decision shows that Norges Bank means business and is concerned about inflation becoming entrenched," analysts at Nordea said in a note to clients. The hike raises the policy rate to its highest level since the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008.
Persons: Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache, Nordea Organizations: Norges Bank, Reuters, Norges Bank Governor, Bank, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Oslo, Norway, Norway's, U.S
High debts, rising interest rates and a wilting economy has produced a toxic cocktail for Sweden's commercial property companies, with several cut to junk by rating agencies. Sweden and Germany are among the worst affected by a widening property slump on the continent, according to Eurostat. Swedish officials are worried that banks could compound property companies' troubled by cutting credit, triggering firesales that would further drag down the market. Financial markets minister Wykman said he had held discussions with banks, property companies and investors about the entire commercial property market. This week, analysts at JP Morgan said big banks in Sweden, which had 1 trillion Swedish crowns of property exposure, were 'ill-prepared' for losses.
Persons: Niklas Wykman, Wykman, Ilija Batljan, Batljan, JP Morgan, Finland's, SEBa.ST, Chiara Elisei, Sinead Cruise, John O'Donnell, Toby Chopra Organizations: Organisation for Economic Cooperation, Development, Financial, Reuters, Eurostat, OECD, Reuters Graphics, SBB, JP, Thomson Locations: STOCKHOLM, FRANKFURT, Europe, Sweden, Germany, Stockholm, Swedish, Spain, Ireland, London
Monetary policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will set the tone for the week as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. U.S. May inflation data is also out on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. "We are pretty much with consensus, expecting the Fed to stay put this week and a 25 basis point hike from the ECB," Nordea's Christensen said. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last down 0.1% at 103.43. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0768, having risen 0.4% last week, its first weekly gain in roughly a month.
Persons: Niels Christensen, Nordea's Christensen, " Christensen, Goldman Sachs, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Simon Cameron, Moore, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, ECB, Reuters, U.S, Reserve Bank of New, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Australia, People's Bank of China
"Danske Bank has during recent years made fundamental changes to refocus the bank, reduce our risk exposure, develop our organisation and accelerate our commercial momentum," said CEO Carsten Egeriis. Rival Nordic banks Nordea (NDAFI.HE) and DNB (DNB.OL) both have long-term ROE targets of more than 13%, while Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) has a goal of at least 15%. Danske Bank is Norway's third-biggest bank after DNB and Nordea with a market share of close to 5%, regulatory data shows. Danske also said it would double investments into the strategic development of the bank, including digital platforms, expert advisory services and sustainability. It plans to maintain its dividend payout ratio of between 40-60% of net profit.
Persons: Carsten Egeriis, Danske, JP Morgan, Nikolaj Skydsgaard, Terje Solsvik, Jason Neely Organizations: Bank, Danske Bank, Danske, Nordic, Thomson Locations: COPENHAGEN, United States, Denmark
Some economists argued that the bigger than forecast drop in underlying inflation suggests that not much work is left to be done. "Underlying inflation has probably passed its peak," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. "This supports our expectation that the ECB will raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the last time in June." Services inflation slowed to 5.0% from 5.2% while price growth for industrial goods eased to 5.8% from 6.2%, still excessive but both moving in the right direction. Euro zone wage growth is hovering in the 5% to 6% range, twice the rate that would be consistent with the ECB's inflation target.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Christoph Weil, Nordea, Balazs Koranyi, John Stonestreet Organizations: FRANKFURT, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, Netherlands, Ireland
"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.
Nordea Q1 profit tops forecast as interest rates rise
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
HELSINKI, April 27 (Reuters) - The Nordic region's biggest lender Nordea (NDAFI.HE) posted a larger than expected gain in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, on the back of rising interest rates and despite weaker Nordic currencies. The rise in results followed a similar trend among other Nordic banks such as Swedish rival SEB (SEBa.ST), which on Wednesday beat market expectations and reported higher net interest income. The bank saw its net fee and commission income decline 8% year on year to 765 million euros. Net interest income climbed 35% to 1.77 billion euros. Nordea said individual net loan losses remained low despite the Nordic economies slowing and kept its management judgement buffer unchanged at 585 million euros.
Norway's DNB beats Q1 profit forecast as rates rise
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
OSLO, April 27 (Reuters) - DNB (DNB.OL), Norway's largest bank, reported a bigger-than-expected rise in first-quarter profit on Thursday, following a trend among Nordic banks benefiting from recent rate hikes. Net profit rose to 10.5 billion Norwegian crowns ($989.43 million) in the January-March quarter, from 7.6 billion crowns a year earlier, while analysts on average had expected 8.9 billion crowns, according to a poll compiled by the bank. Loans to customers increased 0.6% in the quarter while net interest income surged 39.8% to 14.6 billion crowns, just above analysts' average forecast of 14.5 billion, thanks to both increased volumes and interest rates. DNB said it had net reversals of impairment of financial instruments of 79 million crowns in the quarter compared with net reversals of 589 million in the year-earlier period. The net reversals in the oil, gas and offshore industry segment was 515 million in the quarter.
STOCKHOLM, April 27 (Reuters) - Swedish bank Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) reported first-quarter net profit above market expectations on Thursday and said higher deposit margins had boosted results, although credit impairments also rose. "The driving factor was higher net interest income, which strengthened thanks to higher deposit margins," he told a news conference. Higher interest rates have meant that Swedish banks have increased margins on their loan business. Swedbank, Sweden's biggest mortgage bank, said its net interest income, which includes revenues from mortgages, rose by 77% to 11.94 billion from a year-ago 6.76 billion, above the 11.37 billion expected by analysts. Swedbank said its credit impairments rose to 777 million crowns from 158 million a year ago, above the 386 million seen by analysts.
Handelsbanken scores profit beat as interest income climbs
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
STOCKHOLM, April 26 (Reuters) - Swedish bank Handelsbanken (SHBa.ST) reported first-quarter net profit above market expectations on Wednesday on the back of climbing interest income and said its credit quality remained good against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty. Soaring inflation over the past year has seen central banks crank up key rates radically, boosting interest income for banks such as Handelsbanken, but also spurring their own costs and ramping up pressure on their customers and on property prices. The rival of Swedbank (SWEDa.ST), SEB (SEBa.ST) and Nordea (NDAFI.HE) said net profit totalled 6.81 billion Swedish crowns ($661.23 million) versus a year-ago 5.69 billion, topping a mean forecast 6.20 billion, according to Refinitiv estimates. The bank, whose main markets are Sweden, Norway and Britain, said its net interest income, which includes revenues from mortgages, rose to 11.49 billion from a year-ago 8.01 billion, above the 10.89 billion expected by analysts. Handelsbanken said its credit losses edged up to 30 million crowns from only 6 million a year ago, well below the 386 million seen by analysts.
World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.
World stocks hold on to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
European stock markets opened broadly firmer (.STOXX), U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive open for Wall Street shares , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Friday's non-farm payrolls suggested labour markets remain resilient, boosting expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) U.S. rate increase in May. NEW BOJ CHIEFIn Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.57%, while MSCI's world stock index was up 0.3% (.MIWD00000PUS). U.S. Treasury yields edged down in European trade , with rate sensitive two-year yields last down 3 bps at 3.96%. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.74%, to $84.81 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures gained 68 cents, or 0.83%, to $80.41 a barrel.
Sweden's house prices are expected to continue to plummet. Danske previously projected a 20% drop, peak to trough, in Swedish house prices. The data shows house prices rose by 1% compared with February. When adjusted for seasonality, the increase translates into a small decline of 0.3%, with house prices typically growing slightly at the start of each year. SEB is maintaining its forecast of a 20% drop in Swedish house prices, but with downside risk.
[1/2] A stock broker looks at his screens at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoSummary Graphic: World FX ratesGraphic: Global asset performanceWorld stocks pull back from 7-week highsNZ dollar rallies after big rate hikeLONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - World stock markets stumbled on Wednesday as signs that the economic outlook is weakening spurred caution, while a bigger-than-expected interest-rate hike from New Zealand lifted the kiwi dollar. European stocks fell with the broad STOXX 600 index pulling away from Tuesday's one-month highs (.STOXX). U.S. equity futures dipped , and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.6% in its biggest one-day percentage fall since mid-March. Weak U.S. economic data this week has exacerbated recession worries, taking the edge off recent stock market gains.
European banks default-risk indicator jumps, AT1 bonds fall
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 19 basis points (bps) from Thursday's close to 222 bps, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. UBS's (UBSG.S) five-year CDS also shot up 14 bps from Thursday's close to 130 bps, the data showed. European banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt also came under fresh selling pressure, with Deutsche and UBS AT1s down around four and two cents in price, respectively, according to Tradeweb data. Although European regulators and authorities in Asia have said this week they would continue to impose losses on shareholders before bondholders - unlike the treatment of bondholders at Credit Suisse - unease lingers. Reporting by Chiara Elisei and Amanda Cooper; Writing by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SummarySummary Companies European banks, bonds, CDS sell offDeutsche Bank CDS rise to highest since late 2018Confidence hurt, outlook dimsLONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - Confidence in European banks deteriorated further on Friday, with the cost of insuring against a debt default rising sharply as the profit outlook for the sector dimmed. Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 19 basis points (bps) from Thursday's close to 222 bps, rising to their highest since late 2018, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. The prospect that interest rates may be close to peaking, as financial markets are signalling, would also curb banks' profit margins on lending. BOND WATCHEuropean banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt came under fresh selling pressure, with Deutsche AT1 prices down 6 cents, according to Tradeweb data. The selloff in AT1s highlighted concerns about rising funding costs for European banks and helped explain why the sector was facing renewed pressure on Friday, analysts said.
European banks face renewed selling pressure
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
So people are acting with their feet and continuing to sell bank stocks. ING ECONOMICS TEAM (emailed) "Most European banks are impacted by these events mainly via the more cautious market sentiment. "It seems like post what happened to Credit Suisse last weekend, two things might be at play here. “European banks probably suffered from contagion from what was going on in the US, where the regional banks seem to be under pressure in the rising rate environment. European banks have, in fact, had no fundamental issues whatsoever.
The fresh price falls in Europe came as investors were looking to see how far U.S. authorities would go to shore up the banking sector, particularly fragile regional lenders. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo 1 2CDS surge on banking sector turmoilUBS CHALLENGESThe global banking sector has been shaking since the sudden collapse this month of SVB and Signature Bank. But the worries spread quickly, and on Sunday UBS (UBSG.S) was rushed into taking over Swiss rival Credit Suisse after it lost the confidence of investors. Separate sources told Reuters that UBS has promised retention packages to Credit Suisse wealth management staff in Asia to stem a talent exodus. Standard Chartered (STAN.L) Chief Executive Bill Winters said on Friday the wipeout of Credit Suisse bondholders had "profound" implications for global bank regulations.
"We are optimistic on a rebound in regional and international travel and continue to get exposure through airports and airplane leasing." Shares of Air China, China Eastern and China Southern have gained between 7% to 17% in the past four months, with Air China and China Southern trading above their 5-year average forward earnings, according to Refinitiv data. Airports under perform AirlinesIn the battle for Chinese travelers, local airlines are expected to fare better than regional airlines such as Qantas (QAN.AX), Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) and Cathay Pacific (0293.HK), mainly because Chinese airlines kept more widebody planes and staff ready. All three Chinese airlines are expected to swing to profit in 2023 after reporting big losses last year, according to Refinitiv data. Analysts expect Chinese airlines will see profits peak next year as international traffic makes a fuller rebound.
Separately, two days of chaos in China's $21 trillion bond market ended on Friday after Beijing allowed money brokers to resume providing data to third-party platforms. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said he considered selling Treasuries earlier in the week but the market was "wildly illiquid." Bond market volatility spikesKEEPING WATCHThe heightened volatility has caught the eye of officials who play a role in ensuring financial markets stability. Analysts noted that bond volatility was exceptionally high not only because of a flight to safe-haven government debt, but also due to a massive repricing of rate-hike expectations. "If liquidity is deteriorating due to wild swings in safe-haven markets, that has implications for the functioning of financial markets and broader economic stability."
But in Sweden, the structural problems rooted in its housing market are magnifying the effects. Banking group Nordea (NDAFI.HE) expects household consumption to fall around 2% in 2023, while the National Board of Housing expects housing starts to fall around 50% in the coming year compared with 2021. "However, in the last few months, the interest rate has almost tripled making it almost unaffordable to survive," Logan said. Sweden's banks are among the most strongly capitalised in Europe - partly as a result of worries about the housing market. But Sweden's economy is likely to remain a hostage to imbalances in the housing market while its structural problems go unresolved.
There's a big shift in rate expectations," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. Goldman Sachs (GS.N), among other big banks, said it no longer expects the Fed to deliver a rate hike at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22. "There's been a radical change in interest rate expectations and in that scenario the dollar has weakened," said Niles Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.47% at 133.04 per dollar, while the dollar fell 1.23% against the Swiss franc at 0.910. Earlier, it hit a near one-month high of $1.0737, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday.
The SFDR defines sustainable investment as contributing to "an environmental or social objective", assessed by indicators such as use of raw materials or production of waste. The people Reuters spoke to said discrepancies among fund portfolios reflected a lack of clarity from the Commission over what constitutes a sustainable investment. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsTEMPERATURE GAUGEMSCI, the finance industry data provider, has developed a way of checking on investment funds' green credentials with its ESG Implied Temperature Rise tool. Among them, for example, are BlackRock's Sustainable Energy Fund, Nordea's Global Climate and Environment Fund and Pictet's Global Environmental Opportunities Fund. "The characterisation of what constitutes a sustainable investment under the SFDR is also a concept that needs further clarifications at European level."
Higher rates benefit the dollar by improving its yield and as traders look for safety while global stockmarkets drop. The dollar hit a two-month high against the euro of $1.0524 , extending Tuesday's 1.2% jump. The Australian dollar has weakened for a similar reason as the Reserve Bank of Australia has softened its tone. Having dropped over 2% on Tuesday, the Australian dollar weakened a bit more to hit a four-month low of $0.6568 on Wednesday. China's yuan finished the domestic session at 6.9706 per dollar, the weakest such close since Dec. 29, 2022.
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