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☆ The bond market is selling off after traders got their Fed forecasts wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.

Persons: Bonds, —, Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta

☆ We're buying more shares on the dip in this Fed rate-cut stock tied to housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Following Tuesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 145 shares of HD, increasing its weighting to 1.65% from 1.14%. Dow stock Home Depot has dropped $18 per share — or a little more than 4% — since making a new high of $418 last Wednesday. Some of this decline is probably due to profit-taking since the stock has gone straight up since Sept. 6. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, nonfarm payrolls, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Dow, Home, Federal, UBS, CNBC

☆ We're buying more of a stock that has gone on sale since reporting earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Following the trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 400 shares of STZ, increasing its weighting to 2.75% from 2.58%. We are buying some shares of Constellation Bands now that we are no longer restricted from trading the beer maker's stock. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Constellation Brands, STZ, Constellation Bands, Modelo, Corona, CNBC

☆ Ron Insana: September consumer inflation report was a mere blip in a wider cooling trend
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After the latest blast of consumer inflation data, traders are facing a conundrum around how they should interpret the monthly numbers. September's consumer price index report topped the Street's expectations, rising 0.1% from the month prior and increasing at a pace of 2.4% over the past 12 months. Still, the annual inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Relative to expectations, September's CPI number does not imply a reacceleration of inflation. Rather, the rate of consumer inflation continues to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than some had hoped for.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nonfarm payrolls, Austan Goolsbee, Ron Insana Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Social Security, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Hurricanes are becoming more frequent, violent, and costly — plus they're hitting jobs and economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hurricane Milton is battering Florida days after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on several states. The two events are the latest sign that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly. They're also hitting employment and economic growth, at least in the short term. They estimated that a Category 5 storm could lower fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth by 0.14 percentage points, from a forecasted 2.3% to below 2.2%. "Rebuilding should provide a boost to economic activity in those affected regions in subsequent months, and potentially years," Sweet told BI, quoting from his recent note.

Persons: Milton, Hurricane Helene, Helene, They're, Adam Smith, Jefferies, Harvey, Ian, Smith, Michael Mann, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Mann, Implan Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, University of Pennsylvania, Oxford Economics, Boeing, Milton, Potsdam Institute, Climate Impact Research Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Milton

☆ Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON

☆ Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fed easing hasn't led to lower mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate actually rising since the first rate cut. Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10-year US Treasury yield, which have also risen over the period. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's jumbo interest-rate cut in mid-September was welcome news to prospective homebuyers, with the expectation that a lower fed funds rate would help push mortgage rates lower. According to data from Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped about 47 basis points since the Fed rate cut, to 6.62% from 6.15%. Whether that will manifest itself in lower mortgage rates is up in the air.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Sonu Varghese, it's Organizations: Treasury, Service, Mortgage News, Carson, CME

Nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. "It was a very good report across every indicator in there," said Aaron Sojourner, a senior researcher at the W.E. As they barnstorm across battleground states, Harris and Trump paint dueling pictures of the U.S. labor market. Jim Watson | AFP | Getty ImagesThe jobs report adds to a flurry of good economic news in recent weeks, with metrics that could potentially amount to the best economic upswing in decades. Following the jobs report blowout, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out last week at a fresh all-time high of 42,352.75.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, payrolls, Dow, Aaron Sojourner, Harris, Trump, Jim Watson, I've, Mark Zandi, Biden, Clinton, Justin Wolfers, stoking Organizations: . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, Trump, CBS, Republican, Ryder Center for Health, Physical Education, Saginaw Valley State University, AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, chipmaker Micron Technology, Oracle Locations: U.S, Michigan, America, Saginaw, Saginaw , Michigan

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slip as bond yields jump after strong jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Monday as investors assessed interest rate moves after Friday's strong jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4% for the first time since late July. Investors will focus on earnings season and the upcoming September CPI report this week. AdvertisementUS stocks dipped to start the week as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates following the strong September jobs report. The September CPI report is also on the economic calendar this week, set to be released on Thursday.

Persons: — Organizations: Treasury, Service, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Investors, PepsiCo, Here's

☆ Stock market today: Indexes drop and yields, oil prices spike ahead of earnings and fresh economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks fell Monday as bond yields and oil prices moved higher. The rise in oil prices and solid September jobs report has revived inflation concerns. Friday's release of the September jobs report sparked the move higher in yields. AdvertisementMeanwhile, oil prices continued to surge on Monday, rising by about 4% as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer on the first anniversary of the Hamas-led attack against Israel. The rise in oil prices and the stronger jobs report are fanning fears of a potential rebound in inflation, which would mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Persons: — Organizations: PepsiCo, Service, Treasury, Israel, Federal Reserve, Amazon, Epic, Bank of America, Here's Locations: Hurricane Milton, Wells

☆ Brace for stock-market volatility this week if inflation comes in hot after the September jobs report, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A blockbuster jobs report raises the stakes for upcoming inflation data, BofA analysts say. AdvertisementThe September jobs report was good news, but it gives investors more reason to brace for the next inflation reading, Bank of America analysts say. Economists forecast the CPI report will show inflation continued to cool last month, rising 2.3% year-over-year compared to 2.5% in August. AdvertisementHowever, with the blockbuster September jobs report, some economists say inflation is still a concern. The September jobs report blew past forecasts, with 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added compared to expectations of 150,000.

Persons: —, Brian Rose Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CPI, Fed, UBS

☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ 10-year Treasury yield slightly higher following bumper jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early Monday as investors assessed future moves from the Federal Reserve following Friday's bumper jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by under a basis point at 3.984%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was over 3 basis points higher at 3.968%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Treasury yields jumped on Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in an 91% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in November.

Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Alberto Musalem Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors Locations: Israel

☆ No case for more jumbo rate cuts by the Fed, strategists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A television broadcasts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 18, 2024. Roche said the figures made the Fed's "jumbo interest rate cut look silly, populist and panicky." 1 is that [it gives the impression that] the economy is more fragile than it is ... and the economy is fine, thank you very much, and doesn't need jumbo rate cuts," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." And headline and core inflation will stay above the Fed target of 2%, so the case for aggressive rate cuts [is not there]," he said. "Yes there is a case for modest rate cuts, there is a case for 25 to 50 basis point cuts by January next year, but a case for 50 basis point cut at the next meeting just does not exist," Parker said.

Persons: Michael Nagle, David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, " Roche, Bob Parker, Parker, Dave Pierce Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Quantum, Federal, Market, International Capital Markets Association, Fed, Global, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Israel, U.S

☆ The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed

☆ European markets look set to keep positive momentum in the new trading week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A stock trader looks at his monitors in the trading room of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Worries about a new coronavirus mutation in southern Africa have dealt a major blow to the German stock market. LONDON — European stocks are expected to start the new trading week on a positive note, buoyed by gains in Asia overnight and last Friday's rally on Wall Street. European stocks look set to continue the positive sentiment seen at the close of trade last week, with markets getting a boost from the latest U.S. jobs report that exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls data showed the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, ahead of the 150,000 estimated by economists polled by Dow Jones.

Persons: Germany's DAX, Dow Jones Organizations: Frankfurt Stock Exchange, LONDON, CAC, IG Locations: Africa, Asia, U.S

☆ How to hedge the overall market with several critical events just around the corner
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The upcoming month is a crucial time for the stock market, with a series of events that will make an impact. A quick peek at the history of S & P earnings reveals a couple of things. Note that the chart below depicts S & P earnings on a logarithmic scale —S & P earnings have grown by more than ninefold since January 1991. Over the past two years, S & P earnings have grown from ~$196 "per share" to about $204, an increase of 4%, but the S & P 500 Index has risen by more than 60% over the same period. Why not purchase a downside SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust put spread if these cause a pullback?

Persons: Low, we'll Organizations: U.S, Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ A recession next year is now even less likely following the blowout jobs report, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: September’s blockbuster jobs report changes the calculus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Paul Bersebach | Medianews Group | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.

Persons: SPX, Paul Bersebach, payrolls, David Royal, –, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Medianews, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Lake Forest , CA, —, Thursday's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: September’s shockingly good jobs report changes everything
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.

Persons: Angus Mordant, payrolls, David Royal, –, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: HK UBI, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Albany, Latham , New York, —, Thursday's

☆ Inflation, earnings and AI are the three market drivers we're watching this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Friday's rally on a strong jobs report gained momentum into the close and pushed the stock market into the green for the week. Inflation data: The September consumer price index (CPI) report is out Thursday. The September producer price index (PPI) is out Friday. Jim said last week that investors who don't own AMD shares should buy some ahead of CEO Lisa Su's presentation. ET: Consumer price index 12 p.m.

Persons: we'll, Jim Cramer, Friday's, Matthew Graham, Israel, Joe Biden, Wells, Jim, we're, We're, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Su's, Su, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage News, Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, Devices, PPI, Bank, Nvidia, SOXX Semiconductor, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, JPMorgan, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, New York City

☆ 'I am getting increasingly queasy': JPMorgan's strategy chief on why investors should dial back risk amid market distortions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.

Persons: David Kelly, —, Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal

☆ 4 market experts share 10 places to invest your money after September's jobs data blew expectations out of the water
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.

Persons: —, we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent

The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 5,751.07, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22% to 18,137.85. Stocks rallied after data showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 254,000 jobs in September, far outpacing the forecasted gain of 150,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. Financials were the top sector in the S&P 500 during the session, surging 1.6% and closing at a record. The S&P 500 finished up 0.22% on the week, while the Dow inched higher by 0.09%. Energy stocks have jumped this week as oil rallied, with the S&P 500 sector up 7%.

Persons: Stocks, payrolls, Dow Jones, ”, Michelle Cluver, Tesla, Financials, Wells Fargo, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Netflix, JPMorgan Chase, Dow, Israel . Energy Locations: U.S, East, Iran, Israel

☆ Fed close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.

Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S

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