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☆ Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius

July 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. All else equal, this would be a tailwind for Asian stocks, bonds and currencies. A New York Fed survey of consumer and inflation expectations was also "risk-friendly." Sentiment toward Asian stocks in recent months has been mostly bearish, with the exception of Japan, but a pause in the selling on Monday lifted the gloom a little. Chinese and broader Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, while the yuan and yen strengthened to two-week highs against the dollar.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Fed, Mainland Banks Index, Ant, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Japan, underperformance, Hong Kong, Mainland, Philippines, Australia, Germany

Asia-Pacific markets are set to largely rise on Tuesday ahead of the U.S. inflation report and Federal Reserve's two-day meeting later in the day – the central bank is widely expected to hold rates for the first time in 15 months while inflation's annual outlook marked a two-year low in the latest New York Fed survey. Japan's Nikkei 225 is set to reach new 2023-highs – its futures contract in Chicago is at 32,795, and its counterpart in Osaka at 32,644 against its last close at 32,434. Australian markets come back from a public holiday with futures for the S&P/ASX 200 at 7,123, just slightly higher than the index's last close of 7,122. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is set to snap a four day winning streak, with futures at 19,358 compared to the HSI's close of 19,404.31.

Persons: Hong Organizations: Fed, Nikkei Locations: Asia, Pacific, Chicago, Osaka

☆ Inflation outlook hits two-year low in latest New York Fed survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for May showed one-year inflation expectations down 0.3 percentage point to a 4.1% rate. Still, median inflation expectations over the longer run edged higher. The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%. Some of the inflation rise has been fed by accelerating wages, and the survey showed the outlook there is also diminishing. Correction: The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve Locations: Austin , Texas, New

☆ Americans view gold as a better investment than stocks for the first time since 2013. Here's why that's a good sign for the stock market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

More Americans view gold as a better investment than stocks for the first time since 2013. That's a good sign for the stock market, according to the Carson Group's Ryan Detrick. "From a contrarian point of view, this is another reason to think the path is higher for stocks," Detrick said. Meanwhile, Americans that view stocks as the best long-term investment fell to 18% this year from 25% last year, representing its lowest level since 2011. And that negative sentiment is the fuel that could ultimately drive the stock market higher from here.

☆ Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Wavers With Debt Ceiling in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. stocks were wavering Monday as investors monitored debt-ceiling negotiations, coming off two consecutive losing weeks for the S&P 500. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said over the weekend that negotiations over raising the debt ceiling were making progress and could result in a deal. The major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. Turkey’s benchmark stock index fell after results from its election suggested President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had performed better than expected, but not enough to avoid a runoff vote. Other overseas stock indexes mostly gained.

☆ Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That came with a corresponding decline of 0.3 percentage point in the overall outlook for inflation over the next year. All of those levels are still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, though they are drifting closer to the goal. Food prices are projected to rise by 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. The likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased to 41.8%, a 1.1 percentage point increase. Elsewhere in the survey, the one-year outlook for home price appreciation rose to 2.5%, the highest since July 2022 and a 0.7 percentage point increase from March.

☆ Workers in the US now want at least $76,000 to start a new job as minimum wage expectations continue to rise in a red-hot job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Employees' wage expectations have risen to $76,000 a year, according to a New York Fed survey. The rise in expected salary levels comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. Those with a college degree raised their reservation wage expectations by about $5,000 to over $97,000. The rise in expected salary levels makes sense, as it comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. This, in turn, leads to employees upping their salary expectations to combat inflation's erosive effects.

☆ US homebuilder sentiment improves further; NY state manufacturing rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.

☆ NY Fed survey finds Americans more downbeat on credit access
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation three years from now is seen at 2.8%, from 2.7% the prior month, while five years out, survey respondents said they expected inflation at 2.5%, down from the prior month’s 2.6%. Despite expectations of higher near-term inflation, respondents to the New York Fed survey see lower gasoline, food and rent costs, while they forecast a 1.8% rise in home prices. The rise in inflation expectations could prove to be a new challenge for the Federal Reserve’s effort to lower inflation. Fed rate rises are by design intended to make credit more expensive, so the rise in households reporting trouble in getting loans is not surprising. That said, survey respondents said their current and future financial situations improved in March, amid expectations of both higher household incomes and spending.

☆ Americans are already feeling the effects of a credit crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Monday New York Fed survey found that Americans' feel like their access to credit is deteriorating. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said the banking stress that started with Silicon Valley Bank could trigger a credit crunch. New York Fed Survey of Consumer ExpectationsAdditionally, the survey found that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months climbed 0.3% to 10.9%. "The credit crunch has started," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in response to the report. Tighter credit conditions means lenders raise the bar for borrowers, and households have to meet stricter parameters to obtain a loan.

☆ The bank crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch as Main Street banks pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.

☆ NY Fed report shows near-term inflation expectations retreating sharply
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the expected level of inflation three years from now held steady at 2.7%, matching the level last seen in October 2020, while expected inflation five years from now was seen hitting 2.6%, up from January's 2.5%. The New York Fed survey arrived just ahead of the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting. The New York Fed report was conducted ahead of the SVB situation and does not reflect its impact. Households last month saw declining price pressures for gasoline, food, rent, medical care and college. But the New York Fed noted that last month's reading remains well below the 12-month average of an expected 3.4% rise in home prices.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

☆ Stock futures inch higher to start the week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-08 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), January 5, 2023. Stock futures inched higher in overnight trading Sunday after the major averages notched their first big rally of the new trading year. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37 points, or 0.11%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.16% and 0.25%, respectively. All the major averages finished Friday's session with weekly gains, with the Dow and S&P posting their best week since November. Nearer term, the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations along with consumer credit data are due out Monday.

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ Worker demands for more money on the job hit a record level, a New York Fed survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The level surpassed the $73,283 record reached earlier this year in March, which it had more recently dipped below. The continued strength in the labor market will will put pressure on companies to keep using price as a lever to make back some of the margin lost to labor costs. This approach to offering more pay doesn't tie them into salary increases which can't be easily reversed, and also does not factor into the wage inflation trend for long. But for now Powell is stuck with a labor market that isn't relenting to Fed policy as quickly as hoped. "We do see a very, very strong labor market, one where we haven't seen much softening, where job growth is very high, where wages are very high.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, investment world and wider economy now have a major sequencing problem. With headline annual CPI ebbing to 7.1% last month, and core rates undershooting forecasts too to just 6.0%, most economists seem confident inflation did indeed peak around midyear. Equivalent public readings from New York Fed surveys are on the wane too. Fed Futures See Lower Rates End-23Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics"TAIL SCENARIO"Sounding something of a klaxon for most asset markets after the CPI number, the peak or terminal Fed funds rate that futures markets implied by May was dragged firmly back below 5%. Apart from verbal guidance, one important signal markets will watch on Wednesday will be the Fed's economic projections that include policy rate assumptions for the year.

The New York Fed survey began in 2013. The one-year ahead expected inflation reading was also the lowest of the year. GOOD NEWS FOR FED'S INFLATION STRUGGLESThe expected path of inflation is a key variable in that process. A large part of the near-term fall in expected inflation is likely tied toward recent declines in always-volatile gasoline prices. The New York Fed reported that respondents said in November they see household incomes rising by 4.5%, from October’s 4.3%, a record-high reading.

☆ Americans said in November they're expecting inflation pressures to wane
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 12 (Reuters) - Americans said last month that they are expecting notably weaker inflation pressures over coming years, the New York Fed said Monday in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. The bank reported that respondents foresee a record month-to-month drop in inflation a year from now, with inflation expected to rise by 5.2% versus the 5.9% projected increase in October. The New York Fed survey began in 2013. The one-year ahead expected inflation reading was also the lowest of the year. It came as the respondents said in the report that they are expecting smaller price rises for a range of key goods and services.

☆ Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In addition to the brightened short-term outlook, the inflation-rate projection for three years from now edged lower to 3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The most recent annual inflation rate as gauged by the consumer price index was 7.7% in October. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading. The survey comes as Fed officials have indicated the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike coming this week when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. Respondents to the New York Fed survey said they see gas prices rising 4.7% and food up 8.3% in the year ahead.

☆ People are actually less worried about losing their jobs than they were before the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Still, workers are more worried about losing their jobs than they were earlier in the year. Of course, some are more worried than others about losing their jobs. When broken down by age, workers over 59 years old were the most worried about losing their jobs, while fears among those 40 to 59 went down a bit in November. Those under 40 also got a bit more worried about losing their jobs, although all age groups were less worried than they were in November 2021. However, workers with a high school education or less are less concerned about losing their jobs than workers with some college education or a BA and higher.

That came on the heels of last week's report that October consumer prices rose less than anticipated, and Fed officials have signaled they are likely done with the three-quarter-point rate increases approved at the central bank's last four meetings. "Tech companies may have over-extrapolated the rapid growth they experienced during the pandemic and are now correcting for over-hiring," the Goldman economists wrote. Job growth through October remained strong but was moderating from its pre-pandemic highs, and Fed officials said they saw some initial signs that wage growth was beginning to cool. Curbing demand is one aim of Fed rate increases that have come at the fastest pace in 40 years on the expectation that less consumption will translate into less inflation. "You'd actually expect more competitive pressure to start bringing those costs down," Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday at a Bloomberg event.

☆ Everyone's been wrong about inflation, and it's costing workers in salary negotiations
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation eased in October, but it stayed well ahead of most workers' year-over-year pay increases. While American workers are experiencing the strongest wage growth in many years, fueled by strong demand for labor, inflation has continued to overpower pay gains for most workers. Average hourly earnings, for instance, rose 4.7% in October, continuing to trail even the slower inflation rate. Several things have held back workers in their salary negotiations, including the decline of unions, stagnant minimum wages, globalization, and perhaps even some corporate greed. With demand for labor so high, some experts have wondered why Americans' wages haven't grown by even more.

☆ Just 10% of voters under 40 'strongly approve' of Biden in new poll, inflation remains a top concern ahead of the midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

One quarter of all respondents under 40 strongly disapproved of Biden's performance. Twenty-six percent of respondents said they "approve somewhat" of Biden's performance and an additional 22% neither approve or disapprove. "There's overwhelming disagreement with the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and we find the Supreme Court is highly unpopular among young adults," Ramanathan said. "Inflation is the most salient issue among young adults — specifically inflation, rather than general economic concerns," Ramanathan said, noting that it's increased from previous surveys. "More young adults say inflation makes them more likely to support Republicans than Democrats, but the plurality, about a third, say it won't impact their vote."

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