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Just before a gunman fired at Donald J. Trump at a Pennsylvania rally Saturday, we concluded a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls of Pennsylvania and Virginia. While the polls were completed before the shooting, they still offer context about the state of the race. Five years ago, Joe Biden was the “electability” candidate — the well-liked, moderate Democrat who promised to beat Donald J. Trump and had the poll numbers to back it up. The polls don’t back up President Biden’s electability case anymore. In this morning’s latest New York Times/Siena College polls, he trails by three percentage points among likely voters in must-win Pennsylvania, while he leads by a mere three points in Virginia — a state he carried by 10 points four years ago.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden’s electability Organizations: New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Virginia —
Polls May Shape Biden’s Future. Are They Up to the Job?
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
President Biden’s re-election campaign is in jeopardy because of his poor debate performance. But lurking behind the Democratic anxiety is another factor: the polls. The average of polls has shown Donald J. Trump with an almost uninterrupted lead for 10 months, and this undoubtedly shapes the calculation of Democrats in Washington. This puts a big responsibility on polls and pollsters. While they continue to be the best way — or only way — to measure public opinion in a big, diverse country, polls have been wrong before, and they will be wrong again.
Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Biden, it’s Organizations: Trump Locations: Washington
The case for a Biden comeback always presumed that voters would mostly cast their ballots based on their views about Donald J. Trump. So long as that’s true, the path to a Biden comeback will be long and arduous. The best that can be said for Mr. Biden is that the worst of the post-debate crisis might — might — be over. Even skeptics like Jerry Nadler, who had reportedly told his colleagues that Mr. Biden should end his candidacy, appeared newly resigned to Mr. Biden’s renomination. And all of this follows a steady stream of Democrats who affirmed their support for Mr. Biden on Monday, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Persons: Donald J, Biden, Reid Epstein, Trump, he’ll, Mr, Jerry Nadler, Biden’s, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez Organizations: Biden, Trump, Mr Locations: Alexandria
In the wake of the first presidential debate, a chorus of top Biden allies and campaign officials has advanced a simple message: The race has not fundamentally changed. Overall, the poll finds Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by six percentage points among likely voters and nine points among registered voters nationwide. In each case, it’s a three-point shift toward Mr. Trump since the last Times/Siena survey, taken immediately before the debate. Historically, a three-point shift after the first debate isn’t unusual. Over the last seven presidential elections, the person generally considered the winner of the first presidential debate has gained an average of three points in post-debate polls.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, it’s Organizations: Biden, New York Times, Siena, Trump Locations: Siena
This afternoon’s New York Times/Siena College poll doesn’t look much like other polls. It finds Donald J. Trump ahead by six percentage points among registered voters and three points among likely voters nationally. You have to go back to a CNN/SSRS poll in April to find something showing him ahead by six points with registered voters. (A Quinnipiac poll today found Trump up by four among registered voters.) When a poll is considerably different from others, it’s often referred to as an outlier — as it falls outside the range of the other data.
Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: York Times, Siena, CNN, Quinnipiac
Biden’s Polling Progress
  + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
That’s perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race two days before the candidates’ first debate — a debate unlike any other in U.S. history. It will occur more than four months before Election Day and before either candidate has received his party’s formal nomination. We’re devoting today’s newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning of The Times’s 2024 polling averages. As Nate explains, Biden began to rise in the polls around the time of his State of the Union address in March. With Kennedy included, Trump leads Biden, 41 percent to 40 percent, with Kennedy at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, That’s, We’re, Nate Cohn’s, Nate, Robert F, Kennedy
Introducing Our 2024 Poll Tracker
  + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
What do the polls say about the race for the White House? With less than five months to go, new poll averages from The New York Times, which debut today, show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states. On average, the recent national polls show President Biden and Donald J. Trump each winning about 46 percent of the vote in a head-to-head race. They are essentially tied as they approach their first debate Thursday night.
Persons: Biden, Donald J Organizations: The New York Times, Trump
President Biden’s Distrust Challenge
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
The voters likely to decide the Biden-Trump rematch don’t participate in most elections. They are irregular voters who tend to skip primaries and midterm elections but do often turn out for the country’s highest-profile campaign — a presidential election. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explained this phenomenon in a recent article. President Biden leads Donald Trump among Americans who are highly engaged with politics, Nate noted. Yet less engaged voters are so dissatisfied with the country’s condition that they prefer Trump by a wide enough margin to give Trump a small overall lead.
Persons: , Nate Cohn, Biden, Donald Trump, Nate Organizations: Biden, Trump
His candidacy galvanized liberals to defend democracy and abortion rights, giving Democrats the edge in low-turnout special and midterm elections. Yet at the same time, early polls suggest, many less engaged and infrequent voters have grown deeply dissatisfied with Mr. Biden. The disengaged voters do not necessarily like Mr. Trump, the polling shows. Many low-turnout voters — notably including many who consider themselves Democrats — now say they’ll back Mr. Trump. Even if Mr. Trump holds his edge among the disengaged, it’s not clear many of these low-turnout voters will ultimately show up to vote.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, , there’s, they’ve Organizations: New York Times, Mr, Trump Locations: Siena, New York
It’s one of the biggest questions in the wake of Donald J. Trump’s conviction: Did the verdict change anyone’s mind? Early on, the answer appears to be an equivocal “yes.”In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records. The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.
Persons: Donald J, Biden, Trump’s, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena
Frank Bruni: Josh, Olivia, great to be with you. I want to start not with Donald Trump but with Joe Biden. What’s the optimal balance between running against a “convicted felon” and focusing on the day-to-day concerns of less partisan, less engaged voters? I for one think Biden needs to be very careful about overdoing the felon part — voters are well aware of Trump’s status, transgressions and, er, character. So Biden’s big challenge is that he really needs to reach people who aren’t interested in politics and aren’t likely to hear any given message he sends out.
Persons: Frank Bruni, Josh Barro, Olivia Nuzzi, Trump, Josh, Olivia, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, , Nate Cohn, aren’t Organizations: Washington, New York, The Times
For almost a decade, Donald J. Trump has done, said and survived things that would have doomed any other politician. The polls cannot tell us how voters will respond to the unprecedented verdict. Most voters weren’t even paying close attention to the trial, and asking voters about hypotheticals is always fraught. It’s possible he won’t lose any support at all. While Mr. Trump has survived many controversies, he has also suffered a political penalty for his conduct.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, MAGA, haven’t Organizations: hypotheticals
Perhaps Lost in the Polling: The Race Is Still Close
  + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
But the news is not all bad for Mr. Biden — or, at least, it’s not all that bad. It’s close enough that he would have a very serious chance to win if the election were held tomorrow. And of course, the race won’t be held tomorrow: There are five-plus months to go for a possible Biden comeback. The electoral mapHow is the race close? If Mr. Biden won those battleground states, he’d probably be re-elected as president.
Persons: Biden hasn’t, He’s, Biden —, it’s, It’s, Biden, there’s, Biden’s, he’d Locations: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Florida , Ohio
A Polling Risk for Trump
  + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote. Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results — and the story line — about the election. President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Trump’s gains came from these less engaged voters.
Persons: Donald Trump, don’t, Biden Organizations: New York Times Locations: Siena
The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters
  + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
The polls have shown Donald J. Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s one big flashing warning sign suggesting that his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks. That warning sign: His narrow lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote. To an extent that hasn’t been true in New York Times/Siena College polling in the last eight years, disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the story line about the election.
Persons: Donald J, don’t Organizations: Trump, New York Times, Siena College Locations: New
Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition. The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: Democratic, The New York Times, Siena College, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Mr Locations: Gaza, Michigan, Arizona , Nevada , Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania , Michigan
Ten years ago this week, The New York Times introduced the Upshot, a section devoted to explaining “politics, policy and everyday life.” That’s a wide scope, by design. As a result, more than 5,000 articles later, the Upshot has been many things to many readers. To mark our 10th birthday, we’ve collected 100 stories that embody the Upshot. WordleBot Eden Weingart/The New York Times When Wordle first became popular, several people on the internet claimed, plausibly, that they had come up with the “best” opening word. Force of Ship Impact Was on the Scale of a Rocket Launch Erin Schaff/The New York Times We think of the Upshot as a place where back-of-the-envelope calculations can be both helpful and welcome.
Persons: , Nate Cohn’s, we’ve, Kevin Quealy, John Branch, John, Patrick Thomas, tut, Trump, pollsters, Obamacare, Leif Parsons, We’re, Jason Henry, Tony Luong, Jordan, , Ruth Fremson, Laurel, ’ Rodrigo Corral, Alex Welsh, Paul Romer, Tim Enthoven, Barack Obama, epidemiologists, It’s, you’re, WordleBot Eden, Wordle, Lila Barth, McCabe, Tom Brady, ChatGPT, , Erin Schaff Organizations: New York Times, Facebook, Yankees, Red, State Newspaper, ESPN, The Athletic, The Times, You’re, Voters, Trump, Mr, Times, Siena College, Walmart, The New York Times, Jordan Siemens, Health, New, Nike, Democratic, Twitter, America, Iowa, Iowa Democratic, Cancer, Hit, Biden, Insurance, Roe America, Disorders, Republican, Republican Party of, U.S, Budget, NASA, National, Traffic, Administration, Yorkers, Force Locations: It’s, Red Sox, State, America, Dakota, Ireland, Chipotle, Japan, U.S, United States, Siena, New Pennsylvania, District, Iowa, Covid, York City, New York, Pennsylvania, Roe, Tonga, Arizona, York, Holland
Was Trump Benefiting From Being Out of the News?
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
Donald J. Trump appears to be a stronger candidate than he was four years ago, polling suggests, and not just because a notable number of voters look back on his presidency as a time of relative peace and prosperity. It’s also because his political liabilities, like his penchant to offend and his legal woes, don’t dominate the news the way they once did. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 38 percent of voters said they’d been offended by Mr. Trump “recently,” even as more than 70 percent said they had been offended by him at some point. We didn’t ask a question like this back in 2016 or 2020 for comparison (unfortunately), but my subjective thumb-in-the-wind gauge says that, if we had, more voters would have said yes to the “recently offended” question. Mr. Trump’s most outrageous comments just don’t dominate the news cycle the way they did four to eight years ago.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, It’s, they’d Organizations: New York Times, Siena College
A Closer Look at a Slight Shift in the Polls
  + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
Donald J. Trump led Mr. Biden by one percentage point among likely voters nationwide, 46 percent to 45 percent. It represents a modest improvement for the president since February, when Mr. Trump led our poll by four points among likely voters. You can’t exactly call a one-point deficit the “Biden comeback,” but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden
Revisiting Florida 2000 and the Butterfly Effect
  + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Joe Lieberman and the butterfly ballotJoe Lieberman, the former Democratic senator, died this week at 82. He was Al Gore’s vice-presidential nominee in 2000, when the Gore-Lieberman ticket came less than 600 Florida votes away from winning the White House. But I don’t think it’s always appreciated that we probably do know that Mr. Gore would have won Florida, and therefore the presidency, if it weren’t for the infamous “butterfly ballot” in Palm Beach County. If you don’t remember — it has been a while — the butterfly ballot was very unusual. Candidates were listed on both sides of the ballot, and voters cast a ballot by punching a corresponding hole in the middle.
Persons: We’re, Donald J, Trump, Joe Lieberman, Al Gore’s, Gore, Lieberman, We’ll, it’s, George W, Bush, Pat Buchanan Organizations: Democratic, White, Reform Party Locations: Florida, Palm Beach County
Opinion: Why a booming economy isn’t helping Biden
  + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Fareed Zakaria | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
It used to be that the public’s view of the president depended mostly on its view of the economy. Democrats who had previously thought the economy was in terrible shape now thought it was booming, and Republicans did the opposite. I argue in the book that it is identity — which encompasses culture, class and tribalism. And when people see their world in flux, they often move not left on economics but right on culture. The left needs to play more effectively on the new crossroads of politics, where culture and class have replaced economics.
Persons: Fareed Zakaria, Fareed, Read, Joe Biden’s, haywire, It’s, Nate Cohn, Barack Obama’s, Donald Trump, , Trump, Ronald Inglehart, , Inglehart, John Burn, Organizations: CNN, Fareed’s, The New York Times, Immigration, Trump Locations: America, Sweden, Denmark, France, Austria, Germany, Japan, United States, Nigeria
Newly registered voters, who are disproportionately young and nonwhite, have tended to lean Democratic. That’s been less and less true during the Biden era. A majority of states ask people to select a party affiliation when they register, and last year newly registered Democrats made up only about 53 percent of those who chose a major party — beating Republican sign-ups by a narrow margin of 26 percent to 23 percent of total registrations — according to data from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor.
Persons: That’s, Biden Organizations: Republican
The 2020 Election Is Back
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
To me, that’s the only real takeaway from Super Tuesday, when President Biden and Donald J. Trump won nearly all of the delegates at stake. The general election is about to begin. On paper, Mr. Biden ought to be the favorite. Yet according to the polls, Mr. Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. He also leads in most national polls over the last month, including a New York Times/Siena College poll last weekend.
Persons: It’s Biden, Trump, Biden, Donald J, He’s, Trump’s Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Biden, Trump Locations: Super, Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia
The Election is Set
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
It’s Biden vs. Trump. The general election is about to begin. He’s an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes. Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. This is not what many expected from a Biden-Trump rematch, especially after Democrats were resilient in the midterms and excelled in special elections by campaigning on issues like democracy and abortion.
Persons: It’s Biden, It’ll, Biden, He’s, Trump Organizations: Trump, Biden Locations: Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia
Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicMillions of voters in states across the country cast their ballots in the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, leaving little doubt that the November election will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. But in a race that is increasingly inevitable, a New York Times/Siena College poll found a critical group of voters who are making the outcome of that race anything but certain. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains who these voters are and why they present a particular threat to Mr. Biden.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Trump, New York Times, Siena College
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