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☆ Stocks stumble as investors' nerves show ahead of US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .

☆ Girard: There's no longer any need for further rate hikes by the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGirard: There's no longer any need for further rate hikes by the FedMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hiking campaign.

☆ Stocks slide into Fed mode, shorts stalk banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight, tumbling regional bank stocks (.KRX) dragged the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 1.2% and oil dived more than 5% on fears that shaky bank confidence and signs of weakness in the U.S. job market were harbingers of a looming broader slowdown. Bonds rallied as investors reckoned the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later on Wednesday, will soon be switching from rate hikes to cuts. Among banks, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), down 27.8%, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), down 15.1%, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) down 12.4%, were the biggest losers. If that happens, focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Australian dollar has given back some of the ground gained on Tuesday, following a surprise rate hike from the central bank, and sat at $0.6670.

☆ Calls to move away from the U.S. dollar are growing — but the greenback is still king
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Penny Chen | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kacper Pempel | ReutersCalls to move away from relying on the U.S. dollar for trade are growing. The U.S. dollar accounted for 58.36% of global foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter last year, according to data from the IMF's Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). China is one of the most active players in this push given its dominant position in global trade right now, and as the world's second largest economy. The IMF estimates that Asia could contribute more than 70% to global growth this year. In the Middle East, major oil exporter Saudi Arabia has reportedly signaled it's open to trade in other currencies other than the greenback.

☆ Asia shares gain as Singapore stops tightening, euro climbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dovish signals helped keep non-yielding gold near one-year highs, while the euro led the currency pack as the European Central Bank stays stubbornly hawkish. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised many by leaving policy unchanged, saying the tightening already underway would ensure inflation slowed sharply later this year. A break under 100bp would see the spread at its narrowest since early 2014, when the euro was up around $1.3600. The dollar was relatively steady on the yen at 132.51 yen , supported by the Bank of Japan's easy policy stance. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday he told his G20 counterparts the central bank will likely keep monetary policy ultra-loose.

☆ Morning Bid: Singapore signals a peak for policy tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Singapore's central bank sprang the surprise of the Asian day by halting its tightening cycle when markets had expected a sixth straight round of restraint. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said there was enough currency appreciation - controlling the SGD is its primary policy tool - already in the pipeline to ensure inflation slowed sharply as the year progressed. It also sounded more downbeat on the economic outlook as GDP growth missed forecasts with a rise of just 0.1%. It made a five-month top on the yen, a 10-month peak on the Singapore dollar and a 17-month high on the Australian dollar.

☆ Asia shares up as Singapore joins the pause camp
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised many by leaving policy unchanged, saying the tightening already underway would ensure inflation slowed sharply later this year. The prospect of a peak for rates helped offset worries about recession and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) nudged up 0.4%. The euro was also near highs seen back in November above 146.00 yen , and jumped to a 10-month peak on the Singapore dollar after the MAS decision. The dollar was relatively steady on the yen at 132.57 yen , supported by the Bank of Japan's still uber-easy policy stance. Brent edged up 27 cents to $86.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 26 cents to $82.42 per barrel.

☆ Fed showing signs it won't hike rates in May, says NatWest's Michelle Girard
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed showing signs it won't hike rates in May, says NatWest's Michelle GirardCNBC's Steve Liesman and Michelle Girard, NatWest Markets head of U.S., joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the cooler than expected PPI read.

☆ Jobs report raises probability of 25 basis point hike in May, says New Edge Wealth CIO
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs report raises probability of 25 basis point hike in May, says New Edge Wealth CIOCameron Dawson, New Edge Wealth CIO, and Kevin Cummins, Chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest jobs numbers, and key economic data to look forward to in the week ahead.

☆ Stocks meander as US jobs dry up, kiwi jumps on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Futures indicated European markets were set for a broadly lower open, with Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.26%, German DAX futures down 0.12%. Two-year treasury yields , which closely track short-term rate expectations, dived almost 15 basis points and the dollar tracked the move to hit two-month troughs. Elsewhere investors see a few more rate hikes in store in Europe, where German exports have turned surprisingly strong. The euro flat at $1.0952, just shy of a two-month high it hit overnight on the dollar at $1.0973. Commodity markets are settling after Monday's surge in oil prices on news of surprise OPEC+ production cuts.

☆ Stocks struggle as US jobs dry up, kiwi leaps on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Two-year treasury yields , which closely track short-term rate expectations, dived almost 15 basis points and the dollar tracked the move to hit two-month troughs. U.S. interest rate futures have rallied strongly over the last few weeks, as traders figure that under pressure banks will tighten up on lending anyway and save the need for monetary policymakers to do the job. DOLLAR SQUEEZEDOutside the United States, markets see other central banks staying the course on hikes to tame inflation. Elsewhere investors see a few more rate hikes in store in Europe, where German exports have turned surprisingly strong. Commodity markets are settling after Monday's surge in oil prices on news of surprise OPEC+ production cuts.

NatWest, supported by climate activist groups, is happy with 100% of facilitated emissions being attributed to the banks behind capital markets deals. Tonia Plakhotniuk, NatWest Markets' Vice President, Climate & ESG Capital Markets, said that 17% risked "a mismatch" because investors would not account for the remainder themselves. This includes Barclays, which apportions 33% of the capital markets financing to the bank and the rest to investors. Reuters GraphicsUntil banks agree on a compromise, experts say lenders could look to book more business as capital markets rather than loans. The Basel Committee's methodology for assessing Global Systemically Important Banks considers direct lending to be six times more important in its impact on the financial system than capital markets underwriting.

☆ Dollar slips as Fed outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That's a contrast to Europe where markets see another 50 bp or so to go, and the gap sent the euro surging. Dollar/yen fell 0.7% overnight and was edging lower in the Asian morning at 131.19. "From the foreign exchange perspective, we think that argues for further dollar weakness as the ceiling for the Fed cycle has clearly come down." The risk-sensitive Australian dollar recoiled sharply from a two-week high of $0.6759 to be back at $0.6707 on Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar also gave up overnight gains, but was firm in morning trade at $0.6238.

☆ Girard: The market is priced in for a 25 bps rate increase by the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGirard: The market is priced in for a 25 bps rate increase by the FedMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, discusses her expectations for the latest FOMC meeting.

☆ There's 'radical uncertainty' among economists on what will happen at Fed meeting: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's 'radical uncertainty' among economists on what will happen at Fed meeting: StrategistGalvin Chia of NatWest Markets discusses interest rate forecasts, which range from a 25 basis point cut to a 50 basis point hike, and says such a "divided economist consensus" hasn't been seen in the last year and a half.

☆ Cautious calm returns to bank stocks as focus shifts to regulation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Focus is also shifting to the possibility of tighter regulation in the U.S. banking sector, particularly for mid-tier banks like SVB (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank, whose collapses last week roiled financial markets. Investors had been particularly concerned about the huge bond holdings, particularly in U.S. Treasuries, of Japanese lenders. However, Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday differences in the structure of bank deposits, meant local banks wouldn't face incidents similar to SVB's collapse. In an attempt to avert a similar crisis down the line, the Federal Reserve is also considering tougher rules and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to SVB. "A year after starting to raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve is still chasing evidence that higher borrowing costs are slowing the U.S.

☆ SVB contagion fears hammer banks, roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) fell more than 7%, setting it on course for its steepest drop in nearly six months. Banks shares in Singapore and Australia fell. Heavy selling hit U.S. regional bank stocks overnight and traders raced away from bets on U.S. rate hikes, reckoning the instability would turn policymakers cautious. "Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Bank stocks had run up (when) it was thought that monetary policy might normalise a bit," said Jamie Halse, who manages a Japan-focused fund at Platinum Asset Management in Sydney.

☆ Bank slide deepens as SVB contagion fear rattles markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) fell more than 5%, setting it on course for its steepest drop in nearly six months. Banks shares in Singapore and Australia fell. Heavy selling hit U.S. regional bank stocks overnight and traders raced away from bets on U.S. rate hikes, reckoning the instability would turn policymakers cautious. "Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Bank stocks had run up (when) it was thought that monetary policy might normalise a bit," said Jamie Halse, who manages a Japan-focused fund at Platinum Asset Management in Sydney.

☆ Japanese banks slide as SVB contagion fear rattles markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Fear has started to feed on itself, and higher uncertainty by itself has triggered its own de-leveraging and de-risking dynamics." Overnight the VIX (.VIX) volatility index, nicknamed Wall Street's "fear gauge", shot higher and other indicators of market stress showed early signs of strain. In Tokyo, Resona Holdings (8308.T) led losses with a 9% slide, followed by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8306.T), down 8%. U.S. inflation data due later in the day is likely to inject more volatility, even if investors see the Fed prioritising financial stability.

☆ As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves come as investors rush for safe havens and adjust for a less aggressive Fed in the wake of the bank failures. “The market is basically saying that the Fed is done here,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. Some banks, including Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates this month. Traders are also pricing for the Fed to cut rates this year, with the fed funds rate expected to fall to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. “From a dollar perspective, that’s very important because the resetting of Fed expectations ever higher was a big part of the dollar rally we had seen before these moves,” he added.

March 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields tumbled on Monday as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sent investors rushing into safe-haven assets and caused traders to bet on a smaller rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. SVB's collapse sparked a massive rally in European and global bond markets on Monday. The German 2-year bond yield was last down 34 basis points (bps) at 2.746%, on track for its biggest one-day drop since 1995. Market pricing showed traders thought a 25 bp hike is now the more likely outcome, despite 50 bps appearing almost certain last week. The European Central Bank is not planning an emergency meeting of its banking supervisory board on Monday after the collapse of SVB, a senior source told Reuters.

☆ US stock futures rally as Fed acts to stabilise banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Analysts noted that, importantly, the Fed would accept collateral at par rather than marking to market, allowing banks to borrow funds without having to sell assets at a loss. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.3%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 17% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. The dollar eased 0.4% on the Swiss franc , while the euro firmed 0.4% to $1.0690 as short-term U.S. yields dropped.

☆ Consumer inflation may have cooled in February but only slightly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer inflation may have cooled off a little in February, but economists expect it is still running at a high pace. The consumer price index, expected Tuesday morning, is forecast to show headline inflation rose 0.4% last month, or 6% from the prior year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to be higher by 0.4% and the annual pace is expected to be 5.5%. Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, expects the Fed to stick with a quarter-point rate hike in March. By stopping here, it exposes them to risk of inflation expectations reaccelerating," said Simons.

☆ Stock futures, bonds rally as U.S. acts to stabilise banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.1%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 28% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. That, combined with the shift to safety, saw yields on two-year Treasuries dive 47 basis points on Thursday and Friday to stand at 4.58%, a long way from last week's 5.08% peak. Treasury 10-year bond futures added another 6 ticks on Monday, having been up over 20 ticks at one stage in hectic early trade.

☆ Historic move in Treasury yields signals high inflation but maybe not a recession anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

An inverted yield curve is considered a forewarning for recession, and the already-inverted yield curve stretched even wider this week to its most inverted level since 1981. The yield curve becomes inverted when short-duration yields rise above longer duration yields, as in the case of the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield. 10Y2YS 1Y line inversion Recession or a sign of inflation? The current shape of the yield curve tells you more about sticky inflation." Golub said the outcome of the inverted curve's recession warning has been different in periods of high inflation versus low inflation.

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