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Several attendees in the virtual meeting noted that U.S. corn yield has landed below USDA’s trend yield for five consecutive years now, prompting questions as to whether the calculation will be revisited for future seasons. The market’s main grievance with the recent yield pattern is that negative price implications could arise if trend yield starts out too high, since it may cause U.S. corn supplies to be overstated early on. Trend yield is set forth by USDA’s World Board and is based off a publicly documented model written in 2012. They also suggested that consecutive bad weather years can skew the view of true trend yield. In the last five years including 2023, corn yield fell below trend in each year and by an average of 6.1 bpa (3.4%).

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, USDA’s, Agency, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Monday revealed U.S. soybean oil stocks among NOPA members totaled 1.108 billion pounds as of Sept. 30. A mid-year drawdown of U.S. soyoil stocks is common, but this year’s pace is unusual. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects total domestic soybean oil use at a record 27.45 billion pounds in 2023-24, which began Oct. 1. The most actively traded Chicago soybean oil futures are at three-year lows for the date, down 20% from a year ago. Most-active CBOT soybean oil futuresRISING IMPORTSU.S. soybean oil stocks may be falling, but both the reduction in exports and influx of vegetable oil from overseas have been somewhat offsetting.

Persons: Jason Lee, Stocks, Karen Braun, Miral Organizations: Industry, Trade Co, REUTERS, Rights, Oilseed Processors, U.S . Department of Agriculture, NOPA, U.S, Higher, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Qufu, Shandong province, China, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, United States, USDA

Three of the 11 Crop Watch producers increased their corn yield expectations this week, the most notable coming in eastern Iowa. A 3.77 for average Crop Watch corn yield is still below what was expected in July and August, and it would land above the 2022 yield but below that of 2021. Producers in Indiana and western Iowa also increased their Crop Watch corn expectations this week based on results from other fields. Final Crop Watch soybean yield for 2023 is likely to end at 3.5, up from 3.48 a week earlier. Only five of the 22 Crop Watch fields have yet to be touched, all corn: Both Dakotas, western Iowa, Indiana and Ohio.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: . Crop Watch, Crop Watch, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

During that week, money managers cut their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 112,691 contracts from 159,433 a week earlier, marking their biggest round of net buying since late July. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsDecember corn futures had reached their U.S. harvest lows by mid-September in 2016, 2018 and 2019, and so far, the harvest low for December 2023 corn sits on Sept. 19 at $4.67-3/4 per bushel. Money managers have not held a bearish soy view since April 2020 but have come close a couple times. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsHowever, overall speculators’ soybean net short was preserved through Oct. 10 as other reportable traders were only slight net buyers during the week. That small net short was established in the prior week for the first time since March 2020.

Persons: Gleb Garanich, Wheat, Karen Braun, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., U.S . Department, Agriculture’s, USDA, U.S . Renewable, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bilohiria, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago

1 corn exporter to Brazil last year when the South American country harvested a breakthrough crop, just months after China gave the green light to Brazilian corn imports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday maintained 2023-24 Brazilian corn production at 129 million metric tons, identical to the initial May projection. Conab predicts Brazil’s second corn harvest, which supplies the country's exports, could fall nearly 11% on the year to 91.2 million tons. China, like the United States, is winding down its 2023-24 corn harvest. On an October-September basis, USDA sees 2023-24 Brazilian corn exports at 59 million tons versus 53.7 million in 2022-23, and U.S. shipments are pegged at 52.5 million tons in 2023-24 versus 43 million in 2022-23.

Persons: Farmer Roger Hadley, John Deere, Bing Guan, Conab, Brazil Karen Braun, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, United, U.S . Department of Agriculture, El, USDA, U.S, USA, Brazil, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Woodburn , Indiana, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, Brazil, China, USDA, Northern, Southern, Mexico, Japan

☆ How to Invest in Mutual Funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Mallika Mitra | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +20 min

Mutual funds are relatively cheap and simple to invest in, thanks to the many trading apps and online brokerages available nowadays. To get started, read on for our 10-step guide on how to invest in mutual funds. Once you open an account, you can invest in a wide range of securities, like stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Buy mutual fund sharesNow that you’ve solidified your strategy and done your research, you are almost ready to buy mutual funds. How to buy mutual fund sharesSome mutual funds require an investment minimum, often between $500 and $3,000, but not all do.

Persons: Mallika Mitra, Tricia Rosen, ”, Rosen, “, Ameritrade, Roth, Roth IRAs, Uncle Sam, you’ve, Randy Bruns, it’s, Morningstar, Russell, hasn’t, Amy Arnott, John Bogle, Morningstar’s Arnott, pitfall Arnott, You’ll, you’ll, Don’t, Sam, haven’t Organizations: Mutual, Fidelity, Vanguard, Morningstar, SEC, Apple, Fidelity Investments Fidelity, Target, Walmart, Funds, Capital Group, Capital Group’s, The Securities, Exchange Commission, Social, Consumer, Morgan, Capital Locations: Andover, Mass, Naperville , Illinois, U.S

In the week ended Oct. 3, money managers slashed their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 5,001 contracts from 30,058 a week earlier. New shorts and exiting longs both played a role, and money managers have not held a net short in beans since April 2020. Money managers extended their sizable net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 98,788 contracts from 96,384 a week earlier. CBOT corn futures added about 1% late last week, touching $4.99 per bushel on Friday, their highest since Aug. 29. Money managers maintain comfortably bearish CBOT corn views, though they trimmed their net short through Oct. 3 by about 9,200 to 159,433 futures and options contracts.

Persons: ’, Soymeal, Karen Braun Organizations: China, Futures, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

Crop Watch producers reported quick harvest progress in the first week of October, and soybeans were the prime beneficiary as many areas are close to wrapping up those efforts. Five Crop Watch soybean fields were harvested between last Monday and Sunday, three with slightly better than expected results and two with notably worse ones. Just two Crop Watch soybean fields await harvest: Ohio and North Dakota. Average Crop Watch corn yield remains unchanged at 3.61, and there were no adjustments to any individual scores this week. Only four of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields have been harvested as of Monday morning, and the most recent one was completed on Sept. 29.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop Watch, Nebraska and, Crop, Crop Watch, Watch, South Dakota, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Ohio, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nebraska and South Dakota, South Dakota, South, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Although China’s interest has declined, other U.S. corn export demand has been better than a year ago. USDA predicts 2023-24 U.S. corn exports to rise 23% on the year to 52.1 million tons (2.05 billion bushels). Total U.S. corn export sales for 2023-24 minus those to China are almost 40% higher than at the same point a year ago. Corn sales were closer to average over that same time frame, but both corn and soy are being limited by Brazil’s rising presence. Brazilian corn and soybean exportsIn the first eight months of 2023, some 18% of Brazil’s corn exports went to China compared with none in the previous years.

Persons: Rio, corn’s, Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: Lucas, U.S . Department of Agriculture, U.S, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mato Grosso, Brazil, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, U.S, Mexico, United States

Large U.S. wheat purchases by China have been rare. The last daily U.S. wheat sale to China was in July 2021, also soft red winter wheat, and twin sales of hard red spring and hard red winter wheat were confirmed in July 2020. China’s recent U.S. wheat purchase was not a one-off, as it secured up to 600,000 tons of French wheat three weeks ago. China has been a top-three global wheat importer in the last few years, but those imports account for a very small fraction of annual Chinese wheat consumption. A decline in world wheat prices would amplify this effect.

Persons: Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Russia, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, U.S, States, Ukraine, Russia

Crop Watch farmers in western Iowa, Kansas and southeastern Illinois reported fast harvest efforts last week. The Minnesota and eastern Iowa soybeans are in progress as of Monday, and the South Dakota soybeans could also be started on Monday. So far, the Crop Watch harvest is faster than a year ago but slightly slower than two years ago. The producer cites the longer-season variety of beans planted in the Crop Watch field that were able to take in late-season moisture. Crop Watch 2023 ProducersPhotos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my X feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: pinto, Karen Braun, Marguerita Choy, 「 Organizations: . Crop Watch, Nebraska, Crop, Crop Watch, Reuters, 「 Reuters Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa , Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, North, South Dakota , Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Ohio, The, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

This marks their biggest net short in corn since August 2020, and it nearly ties 2016 for the date's most bearish corn view. The move went against expectations for slight fund buying, as most-active CBOT corn futures had drifted fractionally higher for the week. Funds maintained their huge net short in CBOT wheat futures and options, which is the second largest for the time of year after 2016. CONTINUED SELLINGFriday marked several milestones for CBOT grain and oilseed futures, the most significant being a 6.4% dive in CBOT wheat futures, the biggest single-day decline since March 2022. Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks were above expectations but similar to the past two years, though soybean futures hit three-month lows on Friday.

Persons: Raquel Cunha, Friday’s, soyoil, Karen Braun, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tepexpan, Mexico, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Kansas

☆ I tried the salads and savory bowls at Sweetgreen and Cava. Both chains are Gen Z favorites — but there's a clear winner.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Nancy Luna | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Cava, billed as a Mediterranean version of Chipotle, went public in June. AdvertisementAdvertisementNewly minted Wall Street darling Cava is a fast-casual chain that sells grain bowls and pitas in an assembly-style format. Rival Sweetgreen, whose shares have plummeted since the company went public in 2021, sells premium salads and warm bowls. It's about two miles from a Cava restaurant in Orange County, the home base of top fast-food brands such as Chipotle and Taco Bell. So, I decided to try the two chains to see why they have such a devoted following among Gen Y and Gen Z consumers.

Persons: —, Sweetgreen, Taco, I've, Gen Y Organizations: Service, Taco Bell, Tender Greens Locations: Los Angeles, Naperville , Illinois, Cava, Tustin , California, Orange County, Base

However, most Crop Watch fields no longer benefit from rain as far as yield is concerned. Most Crop Watch producers have either not yet started corn or bean harvesting or are in the beginning stages. About 30% of the Crop Watch corn in southeast Illinois was completed on Sunday, and the early results would suggest downside to yield expectations rather than upside. Average Crop Watch soybean yield rose slightly to 3.59 from 3.57 a week earlier after a quarter-point bump in North Dakota. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: corn's, Karen Braun, David Evans Organizations: Crop, Crop Watch, U.S, Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

In the week ended Sept. 12, money managers expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 134,909 contracts from 93,913 a week earlier. That marked funds’ most bearish corn stance since mid-August 2020, when CBOT corn was trading below $3.50 per bushel. Most-active corn futures have traded below $5 since Aug. 21, and they fell 2% in the week ended Sept. 12. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCorn dropped to $4.73-1/2 per bushel on Sept. 12, tying mid-August for the lowest price since December 2020. Most-active CBOT wheat shed 2% in the week ended Sept. 12, dropping to the lowest price since December 2020.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Corn, Bean, soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Carbon Solutions, REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, Agriculture, Futures, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Defiance, Shelby County , Iowa, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, soymeal, Ukraine, Russia

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures this week hit their lowest levels in almost three years, yet relative to demand, exportable global wheat supplies are expected to approach historic minimums by mid-2024. Russia’s early 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent wheat prices to new highs as the two countries account for nearly 30% of global exports. Wheat stocks-to-use in major global exportersThe distinction between global stocks and stocks among exporting countries is important because top wheat grower China carries about half the world’s supply but trades a relatively small amount. A 13.5% stocks-to-use is the second lowest on record behind 13.1% in 2007-08, another extremely volatile time for wheat prices. A year ago, exportable wheat stocks-to-use were predicted to reach 15-year lows by mid-2023, and two years ago, mid-2022 was expected to feature all-time lows.

Persons: Karen Braun Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, European Union, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukraine, China, Argentina, Australia, Canada, UKRAINE, Russia, Black

Versus the June survey, a corn harvested area increase of 774,000 acres in the fall is the largest ever back to at least the mid-1990s. Only 2012's increase of 890,000 acres (0.9%) was larger, though final corn acres usually come in lower than in June (15 of last 20 years). USDA was not the only entity too low on U.S. corn acres this year. The March planting survey came in more than a million acres above the trade estimate, then June corn acres blew out the highest trade guess by more than a million acres, topping the average guess by more than 2 million acres. That is the opposite of what happened in 2021, the last time USDA’s fall area review substantially boosted corn acres.

Persons: NASS, Karen Braun, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA's Farm Service Agency, Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, Analysts, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Final Crop Watch soy yield across the Iowa and Illinois locations averaged 4.625 in 2021 and 4.375 in 2022. CORNThe 11-field, average Crop Watch corn yield fell to a season-low of 3.61 from 3.7 last week, an equal decline as in the previous two weeks. Crop Watch corn yield was 3.68 this week last year and 3.82 in 2021. Six of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields carry a yield score of 4 or better with a high of 4.5 in Ohio. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Dane Rhys Acquire, Karen Braun, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop Watch, Crop, Iowa, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, Illinois, Corn, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Ohio . North Dakota , Nebraska, Ohio . Minnesota, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Analysts' corn yields span from 171.5 to 175 bpa, meaning all 18 analysts polled by Reuters expect a lower number than in August. Since 2004, corn yield landed outside the range of trade estimates only twice in September: 2018 and 2005. Those increases would account for less than 0.2% of each crop's total harvested area, seen at 86.4 million acres for corn and 82.8 million acres for soybeans. Final harvested corn acres have been lower than in August in eight of the last 10 years. Since the mid-1990s, the largest increase in harvested corn area from August to final was 1.1 million acres (1.3%) in 2007.

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, USDA's Farm Service Agency, USDA, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

None of the 22 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields received rain last week, the first such instance since the 22-field format began in 2021. Many of the Crop Watch producers describe this year’s finishing weather as the worst they can remember. The average Crop Watch corn yield also hit a season low this week, falling to 3.7 from 3.8 a week earlier. Eastern Iowa corn was reduced by half a point while western Iowa and Indiana corn were each down by a quarter of a point. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, David Goodman Organizations: Ruff, REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Leonore , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Indiana, Eastern Iowa, North Dakota, Corn, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana , South Dakota, Both Minnesota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Speculators responded by boosting their bullish Chicago soybean bets, which they have held for more than three years, and easing bearishness in corn futures. Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% during the period but stayed below $5 per bushel throughout. Last week’s rise in oilseed optimism extended to the soy products, as CBOT soybean meal futures increased more than 4% and soybean oil added 2.5%. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures lost more than 4% in the week ended Aug. 29. Corn futures dropped 1.1% over the last three sessions, soybeans lost 1.7%, soymeal lost 3% and soyoil was mostly unchanged.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, soymeal, soyoil, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Dixon , Nebraska, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mato Grosso

That price difference in 2016 arguably led to the overproduction of U.S. soybeans in the following two years, moderating soybean futures. The bean-corn ratio was also elevated in late 2013, a year which has been frequently compared with 2023, particularly for corn futures. Corn futures were declining at a faster rate than soybeans as U.S. corn supplies recovered significantly from the 2012 drought. 2024 ON HORIZONNext year’s December corn and November soybean futures already indicate heavier U.S. soybean acres for 2024 after declining 4.5% in 2023, hitting a three-year low. Prices were low by early 2015, causing both U.S. corn and soybean acres to contract that year.

Persons: Karen Braun Organizations: U.S ., Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, China, Brazil, United States

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour has been following the same routes in seven major U.S. corn and soybean producing states for more than three decades. Pro Farmer on Friday pegged U.S. corn yield at 172 bushels per acre, below USDA’s 175.1 bpa and the year-ago 173.3. The advisory firm placed soybean yield at 49.7 bpa, below USDA’s 50.9 but above the 2022 yield of 49.5. For the past four years, Pro Farmer’s corn yield has correctly informed on the direction of USDA’s corn yield from August to September, but it had the wrong lean in the two prior years (2017 and 2018). For example, Pro Farmer’s 2022 corn yield suggested USDA’s September 2022 forecast should come in below that of August, and it did.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Farmer, Pro Farmer, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Carbon Solutions, REUTERS, Rights, Farmer, U.S . Department, Scouts, Iowa, USDA, Versus, Pro, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Defiance, Shelby County , Iowa, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, U.S

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsAn increase in gross corn shorts was the dominant theme for a third consecutive week, though funds also cut longs in the latest two weeks. Most-active CBOT corn futures had dropped 4.7% in the week ended Aug. 15. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn and soybean futures and options has not fluctuated much in the last couple of months. But open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options has surged 29% over the last seven weeks, directionally seasonal but more than double the recent average rate during the period. Most-active corn futures on Wednesday had hit their lowest levels since Dec. 31, 2020, though soybeans on Friday traded to their highest levels since July 31.

Persons: Daniel Acker, bearishness, ’ bullish, Wheat, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

Romulo Lollato, a wheat agronomist for Kansas State University, examines wheat in a field on an annual crop tour, near Washington, Kansas, U.S., May 16, 2023. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts 2023 corn yield in Illinois will be similar to that of 2021. USDA pegs Iowa’s corn yield just below 2021’s record, which also came amid dry conditions with well-timed showers. The tour uses a rough corn yield calculation, though it does not estimate soybean yield. Final soybean yield across the whole of Nebraska last year was the lowest since 2012 and 18% below the 2019-2021 average.

Persons: Romulo Lollato, Tom Polansek, Pro Farmer, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Kansas State University, REUTERS, Rights, Farmer, U.S . Department, Agriculture, Pro, Farm Journal Media, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , Kansas, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois , Iowa , Nebraska , Minnesota , Indiana , Ohio, South Dakota, Nebraska

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