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☆ Take Five: War and peace of mind
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August as a surge in gasoline prices boosted receipts at service stations. Bar chart with data from LSEG I/B/E/S show the projected year-over-year growth in Q3 2023 earnings of S&P 500 industries. There have been reports the government is looking to increase its budget deficit to meet this year's 5% growth target. That said, inflation is still over three times the BoE's 2% target and growth isn't exactly stellar.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Philip Morris, It's, Banks, Amundi, BoE, it's, Sumanta Sen, Prinz Magtulis, Vineet, Pasit, Jayaram, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, Bank of America, Johnson, Netflix, Philip Morris International, Investors, HK, Law, Justice, Reuters, The Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Palestinian, China, Britain, Tokyo, New York, London, LSEG, Beijing, Europe's, Brussels, Europe

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

☆ Take Five: Volatile start to busy week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - Financial markets have got off to a volatile start to the week, after Hamas militants launched an assault on Israel at the weekend, triggering violent conflict that left hundreds dead. A bond market rout last week and currency gyrations already had financial markets on edge ahead of U.S. inflation numbers and the start of earnings season. Here's your week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rachel Savage in Johannesburg, and Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe in London. Amid these tensions, the IMF and World Bank are trying to boost their lending.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, gyrations, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rachel Savage, Naomi Rovnick, Wells, LSEG IBES, Rishi Sunak's, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Vineet, Karin Strohecker, Kim Coghill Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Financial, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Labour, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, UnitedHealth, Reuters, LABOUR, Conservative, Labour Party, MOROCCO Finance, Monetary Fund, U.S, Bretton Woods, IMF, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Tokyo, New York, Johannesburg, London, Central, Morrocan, Marrakech, China

"There's been very little marking down of (private) assets," said Con Keating, head of research at Brighton Rock Group, an insurance company for pension schemes. "No-one knows where the next big blow-up for pensions will come from," said Henry Tapper, founder of pension market analysis group AgeWage. He said heavy selling of commercial property and private equity stakes by pension schemes is raising questions over private capital valuations. "It's the right approach to obviously put some scrutiny on private market valuations." But in deals where private equity firms and investors buy and sell portfolios of investments, assets are being valued at less.

Persons: Yann Tessier, Con Keating, Henry Tapper, EY's, Paul Kitson, Burgiss, Ben Leach, Willis Towers Watson, IOSCO, Wilfred Small, Sinead Cruise, John O'Donnell, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: City of, REUTERS, Britain's, Authority, Brighton Rock Group, Reuters, Numis Securities, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Canary, London, Britain, Germany, Sweden

A calmer tone set in later on Wednesday, with bond yields retreating. In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped as much as 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and many asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . , ,World stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their lowest since April on Wednesday, and the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of European corporate junk bonds hit a five-month high, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Persons: Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Kevin McCarthy, Jason Lee, Michael Metcalfe, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Marc Jones, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: bund, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, ADP, U.S . House, Congress, Hong, REUTERS, Street Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, British, U.S, Hong Kong, London

In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . In a further sign of investor nervousness, the closely-watched MOVE bond volatility index is at a four-month high. (.MOVE)Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levels Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levelsRIPPLESGovernment borrowing costs influence everything from mortgage rates for homeowners to loan rates for companies.

Persons: Jason Lee, Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli Chiara Elisei, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Treasuries, British

The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA

☆ Global stock index gains while Treasury yields, dollar dip after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. "The big fear has been that we may not be at peak interest rates and that we may still be grappling with inflation. "The result is that interest rates are down across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. U.S. Treasury yields slid after the inflation reading with benchmark 10-year notes down 7.1 basis points to 4.526%, from 4.597% late on Thursday. Earlier it had ticked higher with help from the retreating dollar and Treasury yields after the inflation data, but bullion was still on track for monthly and quarterly declines on prospects of higher U.S. interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Brian Levitt, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Naomi Rovnick, Ankur Banerjee, Alexander Smith, Anil D'Silva, Barbara Lewis, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, U.S, Traders, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, United, China, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Take Five: An inflationary dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The week ahead brings more evidence of how much progress is left for developed-economy policymakers, while in the emerging world, India is set to enter the bond-market big time and a raft of central banks wrestle with a dilemma. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.3% in the 12 months through July. Line chart with data from LSEG Datastream show the U.S.'s inflation on personal consumption expenditures (PCE), core PCE inflation and the federal funds target rate from 2019 to 2023. Reuters Graphics5\ASIA'S CURRENCY CONUNDRUMAsian central banks have a dilemma: how to handle weakening economic growth and peaking inflation, while arresting the slide in currencies to maintain stability in their financial systems. But much may rest on decisions of other central banks further afield, namely the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Perry Warjiyo, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, CLUB India, JPMorgan, Russell, Bank of, Bank, Thailand, Reserve, Thomson Locations: India, Vidya Ranganathan, Singapore, New York, London, Washington, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Bank of Indonesia, Philippine

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

☆ Take Five: A central bank bonanza
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Now it's the turn of the world's most important central bank. Also on Thursday, the Bank of England is tipped to hike for the 15th consecutive meeting, taking benchmark borrowing costs to 5.5%. Norway's central bank is also expected to nudge benchmark borrowing costs higher, following a 25 bps rise in August to 4%. Reuters Graphics4/ DIVERGING TRAJECTORIESThe push and pull factors on central banks are nowhere more visible than in emerging markets. But for Turkey's central bank, convening on Thursday, the only way is up.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, hypothesise, Tayyip Erdogan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: U.S . Federal, ECB, Bank of England, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Japan's, of Finance, Thomson Locations: Central, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, United States, Europe, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Norway's, Latin America, South Africa, Egypt, Taiwan

☆ Wall Street tumbles, Treasury yields gain as focus turns to Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reversed their weekly advances, while the blue-chip Dow ended the week nominally higher. European stocks closed higher, extending a rally sparked by the European Bank signaling an end to its rate-hiking cycle, and logging a weekly gain. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.23% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.63%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.33%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.58% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 1.10%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow, TW, Chuck Carlson, Robert Pavlik, Sterling, Brent, Stephen Culp, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Nick Zieminski, Diane Craft, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, SOX, Reuters, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Horizon Investment, Financial, Dakota Wealth, Dow Jones, Bank, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, Hammond , Indiana, Fairfield , Connecticut, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London, Tokyo

Traders cheered the expected end of rate hikes that have raised borrowing costs from minus 0.5% in just over a year. That sent euro zone government bond yields tumbling, the euro down and stocks (.STOXX) higher. The ECB cut its outlook for euro area growth this year to 0.7%, while economists polled by Reuters expect growth of 0.6%. A market rally is also likely unwelcome to the ECB. Hawkish policymakers have started calling for an earlier end to PEPP reinvestments, and the ECB is likely to begin a debate on furthering its balance-sheet runoff with rate hikes likely done.

Persons: Charles Diebel, Simon Bell, Jason Simpson, Anna Stupnytska, reinvesting, Mediolanum's Diebel, reinvestments, Divyang Shah, Christine Lagarde, Shah, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Traders, Reuters Graphics, Mediolanum Asset Management, ECB, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, State, Fidelity International, Thomson Locations: Italy, Germany

☆ Crunch time after string of aggressive central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Major central banks have confounded economists with a string of interest rate rises that, so far, have moderated inflation without causing global recession. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,915 bps in this cycle. Reuters Graphics2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May and has kept it there since. Reuters Graphics7) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.1% for a third consecutive meeting in September, the last under former Governor Philip Lowe. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, meets next week.

Persons: BoE, Macklem, Philip Lowe, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, UNITED, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of, BRITAIN, of England, CANADA Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, ECB, Norges Bank, SWEDEN Traders, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, Reserve Bank of Australia, SWEDEN, Swedish, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

☆ Analysis: Investors call 'peak pessimism' for beaten-up UK stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"It feels like we've passed the peak of pessimism about the UK," said Daniel Lockyer, senior fund manager at 7 billion-pound investment and advice group Hawksmoor Investment Management, which increased its exposure to UK companies in August. Consumer stocks are outperforming as investors bet on the UK cost of living crisis becoming less intense. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLeigh Himsworth, UK fund manager at Fidelity International, said he was "trying to pick off UK retailers we can buy", while it was also "time to pick up some of the (UK) real estate sector." But while noting good economic reasons to call an upturn for UK stocks, fund managers also stressed the need for further steps from policymakers to revive interest in British equities. Premier Miton is lobbying policymakers to introduce a new tax-efficient investment vehicle for UK stocks.

Persons: Toby Melville, we've, Daniel Lockyer, Morningstar, Martin Walker, Walker, Samuel Tombs, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Leigh Himsworth, Spencer, Neil Birrell, Premier Miton, Miton, Savvas Savouri, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Inflation, LONDON, Apple, FTSE, Investment Management, Global, Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Fidelity International, Premier, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S, COVID, outflows

Fundraising and deal-making have dropped sharply at European private debt funds, new data shows. Faisal Ramzan, a partner at law firm Proskauer Rose who advises private credit funds, said he was not seeing default. "There's plenty of dry powder," said Fidelity International's head of private credit strategies Michael Curtis, referring to capital raised already. Joanna Layton, managing director of European private credit at Alcentra, one of Europe's largest private debt managers, added there was "no rush" to deploy capital. High rates have also made private credit less appealing to institutional investors, analysts said.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Francesco Sandrini, BoE, Andrew Cruickshank, Cruickshank, Pictet, Patrick Marshall, Faisal Ramzan, Proskauer Rose, Michael Curtis, Joanna Layton, Mark Brenke, Ardian, Chris Sier, Sier, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: City, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, The Bank of, European Central Bank, Graphics, Deloitte, Fitch, Federated Hermes, Fidelity International, ClearGlass, Thomson Locations: London's, London, Britain, The Bank of England

☆ Take Five: A September to remember?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. 1/ SCARY SEPTEMBERNow the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole confab is over, investors are strapping in for a potentially volatile month. Reuters Graphics2/ THE SICK MAN OF EUROPEGermany looks likely to be the only major economy to contract this year. No wonder the region's economic powerhouse is once again being called the sick man of Europe. But economists are sceptical, noting that at just 0.2% of GDP, the package is no game-changer and that the sick man will need more medicine.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Libby George, Naomi Rovnick, Jackson, Jerome Powell, Olaf Scholz, Xi Jinping, Philip Lowe, Michele Bullock, BoE, Amanda Cooper, John Stonestreet Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, ECB, Germany's, Reserve Bank of Australia, Traders, Bank of, British Retail Consortium, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Germany, Europe, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Zambia, Delhi, China, Bullock, Bank of England, Halifax

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. "They almost certainly have to hike again this year because today's inflation data shows there's still more work to do." INFLATION WATCHGovernment bond yields in the euro zone rose broadly after inflation data suggested the ECB may still have to hike rates again. Germany's two-year bond yields rose 7 bps to 3.09% . Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected.

Persons: Issei Kato, Patrick Armstrong, there's, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Naomi Rovnick, Shashwat Chauhan, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Nasdaq, Wall, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, U.S, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Spain, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's, United States, Gulf, Mexico, Bengaluru

On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.

Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's

Delegates walk past the logos of the BRICS summit during the 2023 BRICS Summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa on August 23, 2023. WHY DOES LULA WANT A BRICS CURRENCY? A BRICS currency "increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities," he told the summit's opening plenary session. In July, India's foreign minister said, "there is no idea of a BRICS currency". WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES OF SETTING UP A BRICS CURRENCY?

Persons: GIANLUIGI, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, LULA, doesn't, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Lesetja Kganyago, you've, Kganyago, Herbert Poenisch, Putin, Rachel Savage, Ethan Wang, Marcela Ayres, Gabriel Stargardter, Naomi Rovnick, Libby George, Marc Jones, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Mercosur, South, Zhejiang University, Federal Reserve, FX, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International, Thomson Locations: Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, Rights JOHANNESBURG, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Russian, videolink, African, Ukraine, Beijing, Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro, London

☆ Take Five: Are we there yet?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

China retail sales data due on Tuesday will show whether spending can cling to the around-3% growth rate in June - a far cry from the double-digit readings earlier in the year. Meanwhile, investors will get another look at the health of the U.S. consumer with Tuesday’s retail sales report. June retail sales, released last month, rose less than expected, but nonetheless showed consumers weathered higher interest rates. Chart shows change in U.S. retail sales on a monthly basis. After shooting to a nine-year peak of 6.55% - prompting the central bank to step in to restore calm - yields have settled around 0.58%.

Persons: Kevin Buckland, Ira Iosebashvili, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Christine Lagarde, there's, BoE, Morgan Stanley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: PMI, Reuters Graphics Reuters, European Central Bank, Reuters, Bank of, BOE, Bank of England, Citi, Confederation, Thomson Locations: West, Britain, U.S, Tokyo, New York, London, China, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany

☆ European stocks outperform as Italy soothes bank tax nerves
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Signage for the London Stock Exchange Group is seen outside of offices in Canary Wharf in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. MSCI's broad index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% higher in European afternoon trade. Europe's regional Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) share index rose 0.9%, with bank stocks (.SX7P) around 1.6% higher. Italy's FTSE MIB share index gained 1.8%. "The burden-sharing of the costs and benefits from higher rates has a habit of becoming a political issue," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jim Reid, China's, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Sydney, Ellen Zhang, Christina Fincher, David Evans Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, China CPI, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Moody's, U.S . National Federation of Independent, Wednesday, U.S . Treasury, BCA, Reserve, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, China, Italy, Thursday's U.S, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Beijing

☆ Big central banks hike again with end of tightening in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Major central banks are tentatively eyeing the end of aggressive interest rate hikes as price pressures finally show signs of abating. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,865 basis points (bps) in this cycle. This may have marked the end of a 20-month hiking cycle, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the central bank to stay put for the rest of 2023. Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, kept its interest rate target at -0.1% in July, but shook markets by making its yield curve control policy more flexible.

Persons: Jerome Powell, BoE, Riksbank, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Tomasz Janowski, Toby Chopra Organizations: UNITED, Federal Reserve, ZEALAND, Reserve Bank of New, Reuters, BRITAIN, Bank of England, bps, Bank of Canada, BoC, European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Norges Bank, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

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