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NATO leaders have been worried by the heavy casualties and massive ammunition usage in Ukraine. "The scale of this war is out of proportion with all of our recent thinking," NATO's top general said in January. Now the scale and intensity of the fighting in Ukraine has raised questions about the alliance's ability to fight a big-unit war against Russia. "Scale, scale, scale," US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told a Swedish defense conference in January. That Moscow is buying artillery shells from North Korea suggests that Russia's military is no shape to fight NATO and Ukraine.
North Korea signaled interest last year in helping Russia rebuild occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. But as the war slogs on and its trajectory remains uncertain, North Korea delayed sending laborers. In September, North Korea's ambassador signaled interest in sending construction workers to Russian-occupied territories, The Associated Press reported. But with Russia's war against Ukraine trudging into its 12th month, North Korea has held off from sending construction aid in "danger zone[s]," a source in North Korea told Daily NK. Support for Putin's war — from his inner circle to some of his most powerful allies — has faltered since the invasion began last February.
A former NATO commander said Putin is "scrambling" for manpower in Ukraine. It's a sign of how difficult this fight has become for him," the former NATO commander said. Putin in September declared a partial military mobilization as part of an effort to address Russia's manpower problems, calling up roughly 300,000 reservists. Fighters from the Wagner Group now comprise roughly 10% of Russia's ground forces in Ukraine, according to UK officials, per BBC News. Stavridis said that taking Soledar will give Russian forces a small morale boost but tactically is not a "terribly significant" development in the war.
Russia's forces in Ukraine will be "exhausted" soon, said a former senior NATO leader. Ukraine is seeking to push back Russian forces along a broad front in east Ukraine. In an interview with New York radio station WABC 770, Stavridis said that while Ukraine was winning on the ground, Russia had an advantage in the air. "I don't see either side having a breakthrough moment — at least this winter," Stavridis told WABC host John Catsimatidis. Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting along an approximately 600 mile front, with Ukraine forcing Russia into defensive positions in the south and northeast, while Russian forces are seeking to advance around the eastern city of Bakhmut.
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The US has been privately warning Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, per The Washington Post. Putin recently threatened to use nuclear weapons in an escalation of rhetoric over his war in Ukraine. Experts and the international community are divided about how seriously to take Putin's nuclear threats. Biden administration officials have noted that Russia has made threats about nuclear weapons since it began its invasion of Ukraine in February and that there are no indications Russia is moving nuclear weapons in preparation for a strike, per The Washington Post. "The consequences of even a so-called 'limited nuclear war' would be absolutely catastrophic."
A former NATO commander said he's not losing "a lot of sleep" over Putin's nuclear threats. "I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon," Stavridis said. The US has for months privately warned Russia there would be serious consequences if it employs a nuclear weapon, according to a Washington Post report. But Stavridis said he's not losing "a lot of sleep" over Putin's nuclear rhetoric. And in reference to Putin's nuclear threat, Daalder asserted that "anyone who finds it necessary to say that he's not bluffing most likely is."
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