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The dollar was steady and poised to snap a two-week losing run on Friday as U.S. labour and manufacturing data kept traders pondering on when and by how much the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year. The dollar was steady and poised to snap a two-week losing run on Friday as U.S. labor and manufacturing data kept traders pondering on when and by how much the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet at the end of July where markets anticipate a very low chance of the central bank cutting rates. Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets for North America at Validus Risk Management, said the U.S. economy is getting closer to where a rate cut may be appropriate. In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased 0.11% to $0.66985, while the New Zealand dollar was 0.22% lower at $0.6032.
Persons: Ryan Brandham, Mary Daly, Daly, recouping, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Traders, U.S, Federal, North America, Validus Risk, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Britain
Dollar drifts as Powell comments bring September rate cut in focus
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar fell slightly on Monday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while cryptocurrencies rose on bets that an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump lifted his reelection chances. The dollar hung around five-week lows on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a rate cut in September, while cryptocurrencies gained on rising odds of former President Donald Trump getting reelected. The comments, likely Powell's last until his press conference following the Fed's July 30-31 meeting, shifted rate cut expectations. Markets are now anticipating 68 basis points of easing this year, with a rate cut in September fully priced in, CME FedWatch tool showed. "Markets may need to wait longer for the confirmation of their September rate cut hopes, and growth and labor data will be on the radar such as retail sales today."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, cryptocurrencies, Powell, We've, Charu Chanana, Trump, Gary Gensler, Chris Weston Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Saxo, Traders, Bank of Japan, Republican, cryptocurrency, San, SEC, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, San Francisco
Skyscrapers in the La Defense business and financial district in Paris, France, on Monday, June 3, 2024. LONDON — European stocks are set to nudge higher at Friday's open, defying a broader global selloff, with fresh inflation data set to land. Reaction to the historic French and U.K. elections dominated the start of the week, but attention has moved to a flurry of inflation data. On Thursday, the U.S. consumer price index declined more than expected to 3% annually, down from 3.3% in May. The data will be followed up by the U.S. producer price index Friday, while German, French and Italian inflation readings will also be released.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Jerome Powell Organizations: La Defense, LONDON, MIB, CAC, Federal Locations: Paris, France, U.S
Investors enjoying juicy yields on their cash should start preparing to shift their strategy, according to Goldman Sachs. People piled into cash instruments like Treasury bills and money market funds as the short end of the yield curve rose alongside Federal Reserve interest rate increases starting in early 2022. Now some $6.15 trillion is sitting in money market funds, as of July 2, according to the Investment Company Institute . There's a "real probability" that could start in September, said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset and Wealth Management. While the average spread is around 800 basis points over Treasurys, the bonds are either trading around 300 basis points — too tight for junk bond ratings — or 1,000 basis points or more.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lindsay Rosner, , Rosner, " Rosner Organizations: Federal, Investment Company Institute, Goldman, Wealth Management, Fed, riskier Locations: Goldman Sachs, Treasurys
CNBC Daily Open: Le Pen's 28-year old protégé
  + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. China holds rates, stocks dipMarkets in the Asia-Pacific region were trading mostly lower after the People's Bank of China held interest rates unchanged. Russia-North Korea partnershipRussia and North Korea signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal on Wednesday, including a mutual defense pact, during President Vladimir Putin's first state visit to North Korea in 24 years. Musk clarifies remarksElon Musk attempted to clarify his controversial remarks after advertisers threatened to leave X. Musk previously told advertisers to "go f--- yourself."
Persons: Hai Precision Industry —, Foxconn —, Australia's, Guzman Y Gomez, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Kim Jong Un, CNBC's Holly Ellyatt, Elon Musk, Musk, Goldman Sachs Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, People's Bank of China, CSI, Hai Precision Industry, Nikkei, of England, Cannes Lions Locations: New York City, China, Asia, Pacific, Seng, Taiwan, Russia, North Korea, Ukraine, Cannes, France, Europe
CNBC Daily Open: Russia-North Korea defense pact
  + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Russia-North Korea partnershipRussia and North Korea signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal on Wednesday, including a mutual defense pact, during President Vladimir Putin's first state visit to North Korea in 24 years. While the 2% inflation mark is significant, it was anticipated and mainly driven by lower energy prices. Musk clarifies remarksElon Musk attempted to clarify his controversial remarks after advertisers threatened to leave X. Musk previously told advertisers to "go f--- yourself."
Persons: Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Kim Jong Un, CNBC's Holly Ellyatt, Elon Musk, Musk, Eli Lilly Organizations: CNBC, Bank of England, Cannes Lions, CAC, Nasdaq Locations: Russia, North Korea, Ukraine, Cannes, France
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce a reduction in interest rates at its meeting in Frankfurt on Thursday, despite lingering inflationary pressures in the 20-nation euro zone. The central bank's key rate has been at a record 4% since September 2023. A cut would be the ECB's first since September 2019, when the deposit facility was in negative territory. Canada on Wednesday became the first G7 nation to cut interest rates in the current cycle, while Sweden and Switzerland's central banks already announced their own rate reductions this year.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wednesday Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Sweden
Inflation in the euro zone rose to 2.6% in May, statistics agency Eurostat said Friday, but a higher-than-expected print did not sway market bets of an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next week. Core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in April. The data comes with the ECB widely expected to cut interest rates at its June 6 meeting, the first reduction since 2019. While headline inflation increased in May, fluctuations in the rate have been forecast over the coming months due to base effects from the energy market and the unwinding of government fiscal support schemes across the bloc, . Staff are also due to release their latest round of inflation and growth projections at next week's meeting, providing more clues on the pace and level of potential cuts this year.
Persons: Klaas Knot, Kamil Kovar Organizations: Eurostat, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Staff, Moody's, U.S . Locations: Corfu, Old Town, Greece, London
European stocks are on course for a lower open Thursday, continuing a negative trend this week as global markets come under pressure from rising bond yields. Equity market gloom has been mirrored globally, as expectations that interest rates will be higher for longer have driven up bond yields — generally a harmful move for stocks. First to release will be the euro zone, amid uncertainty over how how many times the European Central Bank will cut interest rates this year beyond its expected first cut at its June meeting next week. That will be followed by the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting and recent comments from policymakers have seen money markets fully price in just one rate cut from the world's biggest central bank this year.
Organizations: Equity, European Central Bank, U.S, Federal Locations: Asia, Pacific
Klaas Knot, president of De Nederlandsche Bank NV, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Gandhinagar, India, on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it would "soon" be time to ease monetary policy in the region, but cautioned that the process would need to be done slowly to keep inflation in check. "It can soon be appropriate to ease the currently restrictive monetary policy stance and gradually take our foot off the brake ... policy rates will slowly but gradually move into less restrictive levels," Knot, head of the central bank of the Netherlands, said at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London Tuesday. In a Reuters poll of 82 economists this week, all said they expected a June cut. Knot, usually known for his more hawkish stance, said Tuesday there had been "clear disinflation" since the peak above 10% in late 2022, particularly in goods inflation.
Persons: Klaas Knot Organizations: De Nederlandsche Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank Governing, Barclays, CEPR, Monetary, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters Locations: Gandhinagar, India, Netherlands, London
U.K. inflation came in hotter than expected with a drop to 2.3% in April, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday, prompting traders to pull back from bets on a June interest rate cut from the British central bank. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dipped to 3.9% in April from 4.2% in March. A dramatic drop in the headline rate was widely expected because of the year-on-year decline in energy prices. Investors were instead set to focus on core and services inflation, after BOE policymakers indicated they would be willing to cut interest rates some time in the summer, but stressed that the timing would depend on fresh data. Following the print, money markets slashed the probability of a June rate cut to just 15%, down from 50% earlier in the day.
Persons: BOE Organizations: National Statistics, Bank of England's, Reuters Locations: Russia, Ukraine, British, U.K
LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday announced a widely-expected hold on interest rates following its May meeting, as it said restrictive monetary policy was working to bring down inflation. Members of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold, with the latter favoring a cut. In the prior meeting only one member voted for a cut. It keeps the BOE's key Bank Rate at 5.25%. Some economists see a cut as soon as the next meeting in June, and three or more cuts in 2024.
Persons: Matthew Swannell, CNBC's Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, MPC, BNP
That means those saving cash in money market funds and Treasury bills can expect to see their rates stay higher for longer. The annualized seven-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.13%. The appetite for money market funds is evident in the record amount of cash pouring into the products. Last week, there was $6.11 trillion sitting in money market funds, according to the Investment Company Institute , up from $5.87 trillion in mid-December. Then there are moderate risk investors with longer time horizons, which Vanguard surveys show are the majority of investors, he said.
Persons: They've, Peter Crane, Shelly Antoniewicz, Marguerita Cheng, you'll, Cheng, Roth, Barry Glassman, Glassman, he's, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Vanguard's, Cash, Aliaga Organizations: Federal, Crane, Investment Company Institute, Blue, Global, CNBC, Wealth, Treasury, Vanguard
There's a rotation happening in the market that investors can take advantage of by investing in cyclical stocks, according to Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Andrew Slimmon. He recommended investors to have a more cyclical bias to their portfolio, pointing out that the best-performing sectors in the last month are energy, materials and industrials. He also thinks there's still room to run in semiconductor stocks — even if the overbought group sees a near-term pullback. " Slimmon named Applied Materials , Ameriprise Financial and Valero Energy as some of the stocks he likes right now. Regarding energy, Slimmon said the space could continue to show strength if the economy begins to weaken.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Andrew Slimmon, Stocks, Slimmon, there's, Slimmon's, that's Organizations: Morgan, Morgan Stanley Investment, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Ameriprise Financial, Valero Energy, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, United Rentals, Applied Materials, Ameriprise, U.S Locations: U.S, financials, That's
But where banks' exposure to commercial real estate is concerned, locating that fire may be difficult. Rising interest rates quickly increased the cost of borrowing for investors in commercial real estate, including offices and multifamily homes. It doesn't reveal details such as borrowers' track records, said Mark Hillis, a former chief risk officer for commercial real estate at JPMorgan. There's also varying concentration risk: the largest banks with commercial real estate exposure are more diversified, meaning that any losses won't be as devastating, Baker said. "We think very few banks will run into issues just from their commercial real estate exposure," Reidy said.
Persons: Michael Barr, Jerome Powell, Todd Baker, Mark Hillis, Clifford Rossi, Robert H, Rossi, Baker, There's, Hillis, multifamily, haven't, You'll, Banks, you'll, Rebel Cole, NYCB, Matt Reidy, Reidy, Cole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, York Community Bank, SEC, Richman Center for Business, Law, Columbia University, JPMorgan, Smith, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, Mortgage Banker's Association, Bank, Signature Bank, First, Countrywide Bank, Washington Mutual, Citigroup, multifamily, Florida Atlantic University, Federal, Regulators, TCRE, Equity RCRE, Community Bank, Provident Bank NJ, Merchants Bank of Indiana, Apple Bank for Savings, Oceanfirst Bank, Independent Bank, Lakeland Bank NJ, Ozk, Washington Federal Bank WA, Axos Bank, Sandy Spring Bank, Columbia Bank NJ, Farmers, Merchants Bank of CA, Popular Bank, Pacific Premier Bank, United Bank, Trust, Rockland Trust, Umpqua Bank, ServisFirst Bank, Bell Bank, Stellar Bank, National Bank of, National Bank of Florida FL, New York Community Bank Locations: multifamily, Basel, CRE, California, Rockland, National Bank of Florida
Total assets in money market funds have hit a new record high, according to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute. The funds, which still have yields above 5%, saw total assets hit $6.06 trillion for the week ended Feb. 28, the firm said . While some on Wall Street think some of the cash in money markets will move into stocks, Crane has said there is no correlation between the two. Instead, money markets are competing with bank deposits, he believes. The annualized seven-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.14%.
Persons: Peter Crane, January's, Moody's, Crane, Teresa Ho Organizations: Investment Company Institute, New York Community Bancorp, Crane, New, New York Community, Fitch, JPMorgan, CNBC Locations: New, New York
Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel thinks Nvidia's monster rally is fueling a fear of missing out in the market. "That's the first time that's happened since 2021 for us," the firm's senior managing director said on CNBC's "Fast Money" on Monday. In his Sunday note, Emanuel warned clients there are similarities to Y2K emerging, particularly when it comes to momentum. Meanwhile, Nvidia , the global leader in artificial intelligence chips, is up 46% so far this year and 240% over the past year. "If you can't see yourself being a buyer down there, you should probably lighten up a little bit," said Emanuel.
Persons: Evercore, Julian Emanuel, Nvidia's, Emanuel, CNBC's Melissa Lee, hasn't, It's Organizations: Dow, Nvidia Locations: U.S, Monday's
The inflows this year come at a time when, historically, money funds see seasonal outflows. Ho calculates about $5.5 trillion of the assets sitting in money market funds are core liquidity for companies and cash savings for retail investors. In fact, the most recent push into money market funds is coming from institutional investors, according to the ICI. Assets of institutional money market funds increased by $33.06 billion to $3.65 trillion, while retail money market funds rose by $8.62 billion to $2.35 trillion, the organization found. That's because yields on money market funds lag behind Fed moves.
Persons: Teresa Ho, Ho, Powell, Shelly Antoniewicz, Jerome Powell, AllianceBernstein, Monika Carlson, Carlson, Amy Arnott, Arnott, Rob Williams, Charles Schwab Organizations: JPMorgan, Investment Company Institute, Federal Reserve, CNBC, ICI, Fed, Treasury, Morningstar, Charles, Charles Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: Treasurys
Three 1kg gold bullion bars worth over 155,00 GBP lay on the counter in a gold dealers in Birmingham's jewelry quarter on December 13, 2023 in Birmingham, England. Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,015.83 per ounce by 0424 GMT. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $22.76 per ounce, platinum climbed 0.3% $901.53, and palladium gained 0.1% to $964.07.
Persons: Kyle Rodda Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, U.S
Gold near 5-week low as rate-cut optimism tapers
  + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars arranged at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday, Oct. 13, 2023. Gold prices hovered near five-week lows on Thursday, as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and robust data dampened investors' expectation for deeper and early interest rate cuts in U.S. this year. The dollar has strengthened substantially in the past few days, putting a strain on gold prices, Brian Lan at the Singapore based dealer GoldSilver Central, said. Money markets were betting on 142 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, while pricing in a 61% chance of a March easing, according to LSEG's interest rate probability app, IRPR. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Persons: Brian Lan, it's, GoldSilver's Lan, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Christopher Waller's Organizations: Korea Gold Exchange, Federal Reserve, GoldSilver, Traders, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Singapore
Investors are continuing to pour cash into money market funds, thanks to their juicy 5% yields. In the month of January, money market funds typically see outflows after having big inflows in December, she said. That's because there is generally a lag between the cuts and money market fund yields coming down. Still, even as yields in money market funds eventually go down, they will still be attractive, said Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data. Typically, retail investors have an allocation of about 5% or 10% in cash, including money market funds.
Persons: Deborah Cunningham, Cunningham, Peter Crane Organizations: Bank of America, Federated Hermes, Crane Data, Investment Company Institute
Traders are back projecting cuts of 160 bps this year, up from expectations of 140 bps last week. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said the risk is that Waller could push back on market pricing for a March cut and show a lack of urgency to normalize policy. "That said, should he even remotely validate market pricing, then we should see U.S. 2-year bond yields fall further. Markets are pricing around 120 bps of rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, with the first one most likely in May. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell 0.43% to $0.6632, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.39% to $0.6176.
Persons: Hamish Pepper, Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Weston, Bank's Joachim Nagel Organizations: U.S, Federal, Bank of Japan, Fed, Traders, Asset Management, Treasury, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD As for the "too far, too fast" argument, it's worth recalling that all the S & P 500 has done is nearly complete an almost-symmetrical two-year round trip. Ned Davis Research U.S. strategist Ed Clissold looked back at prior times the S & P 500 has gone more than a year without making a record high. This is always a tricky proposition – cash that leaves money markets to buy stocks leaves the seller of the stocks with cash. For one thing, $6 trillion is only about 12% of total U.S. equity market cap, near the lower end of its historical range. At the 2009 market low money markets were 50% of equity market cap.
Persons: , we've, Jason Goepfert, Jeff deGraaf, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jerome Powell, it's, Cash Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Timely, National Association of Active Investment, Ned Davis Research, Investment, of
Next year should be another good one for money market funds, even amid anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, experts predict. An estimated $950 billion has gone into money market funds so far this year, bringing the total net assets to $5.87 trillion as of Dec. 20, according to the Investment Company Institute . The Federal Reserve has indicated three rate cuts for 2024, which means the yields in short-term assets like money market funds and online savings accounts will follow suit. That's because money market funds are competing with bank savings accounts for cash, not necessarily equities and fixed income assets, he said. Certified financial planner Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning, would look at money market funds for cash you will need in six months or less.
Persons: Shelly Antoniewicz, Peter Crane, Crane, it's, Christine Benz, Cathy Curtis, Curtis, Kristy Akullian Organizations: Federal Reserve, Crane Data, Investment Company Institute, Federal, Crane, Morningstar, Benz, Curtis Financial, CNBC, BlackRock
The ETF flowdown: 2023 is back on pace to be a solid year
  + stars: | 2023-12-15 | by ( Kirsten Chang | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowDespite a sluggish start to the year, a record number of product launches and a red-hot November have put 2023 back on pace to be a solid year for ETFs. Roughly $1 trillion has gone into money market funds this year, but some are questioning whether the solid year-end stock rally will attract some of those flows back into equities. "You saw that enormous cash pileup going into money markets, and ETF flows were muted. "We talked about the money market funds," he said. He pointed to strong inflows into high-yield ETFs such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and SPDR Bloomberg Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (SJNK) — along with dividend ETFs such as the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ).
Persons: Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon, CNBC's, Andrew McOrmond, McOrmond, it'll, SPDR, Slavin Organizations: BNY, WallachBeth, SPDR Bloomberg, Pacer, Cash, Tech, RSP Locations: outflows
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