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Summary Data due at 1200 GMT Dec. 12BENGALURU, Dec 9 (Reuters) - India consumer price inflation likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40% in November mainly due to a moderation in food prices, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Food prices alone account for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket in Asia's third largest economy. The Dec. 5-8 Reuters poll of 45 economists predicted the second consecutive decline in inflation (INCPIY=ECI) to an annual 6.40% from 6.77% in October. The central bank maintained its inflation forecast for financial year 2022/23 at 6.7%, the same as a recent Reuters poll. Furthermore, there are upside risks to food inflation particularly from cereals."

☆ Dollar to rebound, accumulate safe-haven strength in 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The dollar will rebound against most currencies over the coming months, with the growing threat of recession in the U.S. and elsewhere keeping it firm in 2023 through safe-haven flows, according to market strategists polled by Reuters. Nearly two-thirds or 33 of 51 strategists who answered an additional question said the greater dollar risk over the coming month was that it would rebound rather than falling further. "We foresee volatility levels remaining high in the coming months and expect it is too early for USD bulls to fully capitulate." Most major central banks, including the Fed, are expected to end their tightening campaigns in early 2023. An overwhelming 80% majority, or 42 of 51 respondents, said there was not much scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Canadian dollar seen higher as analysts eye peak interest rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022, with almost all of the decline coming since mid-August. Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, much stronger than both analysts and the Bank of Canada were expecting. The BoC has raised its benchmark interest rate by 350 basis points since March to 3.75%, its highest level since 2008, in an attempt to cool inflation. Along with a more stable path for U.S. interest rates it "should help the loonie rally closer to fair value," Zhao-Murray said. Measures of fair value include purchasing power parity (PPP), or the exchange rate that equalizes the purchasing power of separate currencies.

The findings highlight how the housing market, one of the biggest employers in a country of around 1.4 billion people, is likely to remain a stable contributor to growth in Asia's third-largest economy going forward. Relatively modest interest rate risk partly explains why all but one of 10 analysts who answered an additional question said the chances of a significant slowdown in the housing market over the coming year were low. Nine of 11 respondents said either an economic slowdown or rising rates would be the biggest challenge for first-time homebuyers. "While India ... has been quite resilient amidst global disturbances, the chances of a slowdown in India cannot be ruled out," said Anuj Puri, chairman of ANAROCK Property Consultants. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Milounee Purohit and Indradip Ghosh in Bengaluru Polling by Maneesh Kumar Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. house prices to fall 12% peak to trough: analysts - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Such a modest fall after a 40% rise in average house prices over the last two years based in part on a surge in demand for more space during the COVID-19 pandemic will not be enough to make housing affordable, analysts said. House prices have doubled in the last decade but a doubling in mortgage rates since the start of this year from 3.3% to around 6.5% has brought the historic boom to a screeching halt. Average U.S. house prices as measured by the Case Shiller 20-City index are forecast to rise 13.6% this year and fall over 5.6% in 2023, the Nov. 8 - Dec. 2 poll of 25 housing strategists showed. If realized, it would be the first full-year decline in house prices in a decade. Average U.S. house prices peaked in June on this measure and are already down about 4% since then.

☆ Fed to lift rates by 50 basis points, but peak policy rate may be higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell below 8% last month, bolstering already well-established market expectations the Fed would go for smaller rate hikes going forward after four consecutive 75-basis-point increases. Peak rate forecasts ranged between 4.25%-4.50% and 5.75%-6.00%. But 16 of 28 respondents to an additional question said the bigger risk was that rates would peak higher and later than they expect now, with another four saying higher and earlier. "While markets are focused on peak inflation, underlying inflation trends are persistent. This could force the Fed to keep raising the federal funds rate well into next year and beyond levels currently anticipated," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

[1/3] Soccer Football - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Preview - Doha, Qatar - October 12, 2022 An image of Brazil's Neymar is seen on a building REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/FilesJOHANNESBURG/BENGALURU, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Brazil are tipped to claim the World Cup for the sixth time in the tournament that kicks off Nov. 20 in Qatar, according to a Reuters poll that last successfully predicted the champions in 2010. The global survey of 135 football-following market analysts worldwide agreed with the bookmakers that Brazil would triumph for the first time since 2002. Almost half of respondents expected Brazil to win while 30% were evenly split between France and Argentina. If France were to retain the trophy they would be the first to do so since Brazil in 1962. Reuters Poll- 2022 FIFA World CupQatar has reportedly spent around 220 billion dollars on hosting the tournament - almost fifteen times more than the second-most expensive one - but 41% of respondents said it would have no long-term economic impact.

☆ Bank of England to hike by 75 bps on Nov. 3 but may go bigger
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Annual price rises were expected to peak at 10.4% this quarter, the poll showed, before gradually declining, but won't fall to target until at least 2025. The median forecast in the Oct. 18-25 poll showed the BoE would take Bank Rate up by 75 bps to 3.00% next week. But while that was a view held by 18 of 30 respondents, 10 expected 100 bps, one said 125 bps and one said 150. It was then expected to add another 75 bps in December and 50 bps next quarter before pausing, meaning rates would peak at 4.25% in the current cycle. Both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 75-bps increases at their next meetings.

☆ Turkish central bank to cut rates to 11% after Erdogan nudge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ISTANBUL, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank is expected to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11% next week, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, after President Tayyip Erdogan called for more easing each month and said rates should be single digits by year-end. The central bank has shocked the markets twice in the past two months by cutting its policy rate (TRINT=ECI) by 100 basis points each time, lowering it to 12%, despite inflation soaring above 83% in September. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe president, who has great influence over the central bank, gave even more explicit policy direction earlier this month when he said the bank would continue cuts every month "as long as I am in power". Thirteen out of 20 economists that participated in the Reuters poll predicted the bank would lower its policy rate to 11% at its meeting on Oct. 20. Inflation has surged since November 2021 after the central bank embarked on an easing cycle that saw rates lowered by 500 basis points between September and December last year.

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. "The short-run pain of recession would be better than the long-run pain of inflation expectations becoming unanchored." Also, unlike most major central banks, the Fed has backing from a strong currency and a relatively strong economy compared with its peers. "The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved."

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