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In a note on Sunday, Mike Wilson increased his S&P 500 price target by 20% to 5,400. Morgan Stanley's CIO Mike Wilson ditched his bearish call in a note on Sunday, increasing his 12-month S&P 500 price target by 20% to 5,400. AdvertisementWilson's base-case S&P 500 price target of 5,400 is derived from a 19x price-to-earnings multiple on 12-month forward earnings per share estimate of $283 by June 2026. Wilson first turned bearish on US stocks in 2021, correctly warning of a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500. JPMorgan maintains a year-end price target of 4,200 for the S&P 500, representing potential downside of 21% from current levels.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, , Morgan Stanley's, Dubravko, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Wilson, JPMorgan
The U.S. equity strategist now expects the S & P 500 will rise to 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025. Just last week, the S & P 500 closed above 5,300 for the first time. His bull case of 6,350 represents roughly 20% upside over the next 12 months for the S & P 500. Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha hiked his S & P 500 target to 5,100, noting the benchmark could pop to 5,500. But market strategists on average are anticipating the S & P 500 will fall to 5,220 by the end of 2024, according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Brian Belski, Chadha, Dubravko, Bujas Organizations: CNBC Market, Deutsche
That was the promise of Cerner, the medical-records company Oracle bought in 2021 for $28.3 billion — Oracle's biggest acquisition. At the time, Cerner managed the electronic health records for a quarter of all American hospitals, including those run by the Pentagon and the Department of Veterans Affairs. Larry EllisonCerner's electronic records, in short, were a deadly disaster for the VA. Never mind the futuristic, AI-driven healthcare system Ellison envisioned. In 2015, it beat out Epic, its main competitor, for a $4.3 billion contract to handle electronic health records for the Defense Department. It had agreed to process tens of millions of crucial medical records, but it couldn't handle the subsequent deluge of data.
Persons: Larry Ellison's, Ellison, Cerner, I'm, Larry Ellison, Neal Patterson, Cerner's, Patterson, Ellison's, they're, David Shulkin, Margaret Albaugh, Cerner couldn't, Charlie Bourg, , Larry, Marc Benioff, Ellison protégé, Mike Wilson, David Agus, oncologist, Agus, he'd, Steve Jobs, Sensei, We've, Georges De Keerle, Cerner —, hadn't, Mike Sicilia, Sicilia, Oracle, Anthony Jones Jr, Jones, Donald Remy, didn't, Seema Verma, Neil Evans, Sara Vaezy, Ed Meagher, haven't, Charlie Monroe —, it's, Charlie Bourg —, Bourg, Charlie Monroe, Monroe, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, grandkids, We're, there's Organizations: Oracle's, Oracle, Pentagon, Department of Veterans Affairs, Cerner, RAND Corporation, RAND, Big Tech, GE, Siemens, Cerner Corporation, Defense Department, Department of Defense, Business, Spokane, Ellison Institute of Technology, Microsoft, Agency, Health, Amazon, Veterans ' Affairs, Oracle Health, Navy, Columbus VA, BI, Life Sciences, Intermountain Health, UPMC, DOD, Seabees Locations: Las Vegas, antiaging, Silicon Valley, Spokane , Washington, Cerner, VistA, Bourg, Washington, Sicilia, Ohio, Columbus, Providence, Spokane, Monroe, CloudWorld
Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve
"The impact of the Baltimore port stoppage on construction and contractor supply chains may be significant," said William George, director of research for ImportGenius. "For cargo already on water, we will omit the port, and will discharge cargo set for Baltimore, in nearby ports. COSCO announced Wednesday morning that its services would "be concluded" once the diverted container arrives at the alternate port. Out of the diverted ports, New York/New Jersey and Savannah, are included. One of the biggest concerns among logistics companies is availability of chassis for both truck and rail to handle the diverted cargo.
Persons: Dali, Francis Scott Key, William George, ImportGenius, Maersk, COSCO, majeure, CGM, Paul Brashier, Brashier, Matt Castle, Robinson, Val Noel, Mike Wilson, Noel, Alan Baer, Baer, Stephen Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Francis Scott Key Bridge, Logistics, CNBC, Baltimore, Evergreen, CMA, ITS Logistics, U.S Department of Transportation, Home Depot, Nike, Walmart, Union Pacific, BNSF, Robinson, DHL, FedEx, Port, DOT's, Rail, TRAC, Freight, Consolidated Chassis Management, USA, Norfolk . Our Midwest Locations: Baltimore , Maryland, Baltimore, The Port, U.S, Port of Baltimore, Target, East, , New York, New Jersey, Savannah, Chicago, Brunswick, Virginia, Charleston, New York, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Wilmington , Savannah, Jacksonville, UAE, Saudi, Doha, India, Bangladesh, NY, Montreal, Port of Virginia, Port
Why rich companies also keep getting richerThere's another major disconnect that the broader market's impressive performance is masking, strategists at Morgan Stanley remarked in a recent note. Since then, the return gap has gotten even worse in a historically narrow market, Wilson wrote. Morgan Stanley"The equity market understands this economy is not that great for the average company or consumer," Wilson wrote. This rare combination of expansionary fiscal policy and restrictive monetary policy has had the unintended consequence of "crowding out the private economy," Wilson wrote. Companies that can grow without borrowing money at unattractive rates are at a huge advantage, which Morgan Stanley believes has fueled their immense success lately.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan, it's, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Pew Research Center Locations: GoDaddy
Much of the gains in the S & P 500 this year can be attributed to the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. The S & P 500 has rocketed nearly 19% in the year to date. His 2024 price target for the S & P 500 is 4,500. But, he said, "There's going to be … a very good stock picking opportunity, probably away from those seven [stocks] … where there should be more opportunities in the 493." "In today's volatile interest rate environment, we see this cohort offering a balance of relative performance stability along with attractive growth properties," Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, CNBC's, Wilson, they've, , we're, we've, barbells, Eli Lilly, Morgan Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Morgan, Microsoft Tech, Keysight Financial, Visa, Mastercard Consumer, Marriott International Pharmaceuticals, Walmart, Costco . Utilities, DTE Energy, Exelon Corporation . Energy, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Valero Energy Locations: U.S, Morgan Stanley Asia, Singapore
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley sees the best stock picking opportunities outside the 'Magnificent Seven' in 2024Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, discusses the opportunities for U.S. equities in 2024, in what he expects to be a flat year for the markets.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Morgan
Contrary to popular perception, falling inflation and interest rate cuts won't necessarily be good for stocks, according to Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson. And falling inflation is bad for stocks because rising prices are what drives earnings, he explained. "Whenever inflation is falling like it is today, it's typically not good for the average stock because it's not good for earnings growth," Wilson explained. The bad news is that "it's pretty clear" that inflation is falling, he said. "So now that inflation is coming down, and they start cutting, just be careful what that means for stocks.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, we've, It's Organizations: Chief U.S, Equity, U.S . Federal Reserve, Morgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Walmart, Costco . Utilities, DTE Energy, Exelon Corporation . Energy, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Valero Energy Locations: Chief, Morgan Stanley Asia, Singapore
Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson sees an eventual earnings recovery for U.S. equities in 2024 — but he sees the S & P 500 rising only to 4,500 over the next 12 months. Wilson, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, noted that while the S & P 500 has gained about 15% year to date, the narrow rally has been skewed to the Magnificent Seven. This under-the-surface earnings weakness is forecast to continue into early 2024 before a recovery, he said in a Monday note. "Near-term uncertainty should give way to an earnings recovery as we progress through next year," Wilson said. Wilson has one of the most bearish targets among Wall Street peers in 2023, predicting the broad market index would end the year at 3,900, according to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Pro's, Survey
Technical strategist Katie Stockton said that recent stock gains have been "explosive." But falling bond yields should continue to provide a boost to stocks if the pullback persists. The surge in equities, Wilson explained, is mostly a consequence of falling bond yields. Key government bond yields have pulled back sharply from 16-year highs in recent weeks. She said signs flashing in the TLT Treasury ETF point to an extended period of bond yields correcting from recent highs.
Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, , November's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC Wednesday, TLT Treasury Locations: Stockton, TLT
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indices have notched their longest winning streaks in two years. Some on Wall Street think the rally can last – but others are still fretting about a potential correction. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The benchmark S&P 500 gauge has climbed 6% since October 27, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 8% over the same period. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe rally has been a welcome development for investors after a rough couple of months for stocks.
Persons: Stocks, , Bilal Hafeez, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson –, , David Donabedian Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Federal Reserve, CIBC Private Wealth
Recent stock market strength may be short-lived, according to Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson. Before last week, stocks had tumbled more than 10% from their July high to an October low. "While we will keep an open mind, the move thus far looks more like a bear market rally rather than the start of a sustained upswing, particularly in light of weaker earnings revisions and macro data," Wilson said. Wilson remains cautious on corporate earnings despite a stronger-than-expected earnings season, and said that he still doesn't see market support coming from either technical or fundamental factors. "Over the past 2 months, both earnings revisions breadth and performance breadth have deteriorated significantly," Wilson said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Stocks, November's bullishness, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Google Locations: Treasurys
The stock market's latest rally is set to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. He highlighted a number of looming concerns for investors, from valuations to higher-for-longer interest rates. AdvertisementAdvertisementLast week's stock market rally is about to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic. While stock market investors would like to see interest rates drop, the reason behind any potential cut is what matters the most. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson reiterated his view on Monday that the recent rally in stocks is nothing more than a bear market rally.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, , Marko Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Markets, Federal Reserve Locations: fizzle
Morgan Stanley's top strategist says stock gains at the start of November are just a bear market rally. "We think last week's rally in stocks was mainly a function of the fall in back-end Treasury yields." AdvertisementAdvertisementMajor stock indexes are coming off their strongest weekly performances of the year, but to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's top stock strategist, further upside is likely limited and the fresh gains to start November are merely a bear market rally. Instead, the market was simply reacting to the plunge in bond yields after the benchmark 10-year government bond hit the highest level since 2007. DataTrek Research noted Monday that the S&P 500 could return to its July high of 4,589 if bond yields drop below 4%.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, , Mike Wilson, Morgan, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley chalked Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America
US stocks climbed as traders tried to keep the rally going following the best week of 2023. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks traded higher Monday after each of the major indexes recorded their strongest weekly performances of the year last week. "We think last week's rally in stocks was mainly a function of the fall in back-end Treasury yields," Wilson wrote in a Monday note.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq
The S&P 500 on Thursday climbed 1.9% to log its best one-day gain since April. The S&P 500 has gained an average 6.7% from November to April since 1990, according to CFRA data. “We remain comfortable with our long-standing 3,900 year-end target for the S&P 500,” he wrote in a note on October 29. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at about 4,318. “The acquisition of Comcast’s stake in Hulu at fair market value will further Disney’s streaming objectives,” the company said in a short statement.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , George Smith, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Liam Reilly, Oliver Darcy, , Read, Hanna Ziady, Andrew Bailey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal, Treasury, LPL, Disney, Hulu Disney, Comcast, Bank of England, of England, ” Bank of England Locations: New York, Hulu, Israel
CNBC Daily Open: Markets’ bounce may be short-lived
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But Goldman Sachs' chief equity strategist thinks such negative sentiment gives rise to a "buying opportunity," especially for a certain type of stock that boasts a healthy balance sheet . But not for Tesla Tesla shares sank nearly 5% after Panasonic said it was reducing production of electric batteries because of flagging demand for Tesla's vehicles. The spread in opinions may make the picture ahead murky, but, ironically, it does make one thing clear: markets are increasingly volatile.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Tesla, Elon Musk, Europe's, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, Hogan, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Wald, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson —, Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Consumers, U.S, Panasonic, Dow, Industrial, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Technology, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Riley, Federal Reserve, Lower Treasury Locations: New York City, Lower
The likelihood of a fourth-quarter rally has "fallen considerably" over the past month, according to Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson. Wilson has been forecasting the S & P 500 ending the year at 3,900, making him among the most bearish strategists on Wall Street according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey. This is one reason why market breadth continues to exhibit notable weakness," Wilson said. Further support for that view can be seen in earnings revision breadth, which is breaking sharply lower again into negative territory," Wilson continued. Conversely, several defensive sectors have begun to outperform alongside energy, which Wilson said supports his "late cycle" view and defensive growth strategy.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Survey, Federal
Here are some of the tickers on my radar for Monday, Oct. 30, taken directly from my reporter's notebook:Big Morgan Stanley note: Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson says breadth leads, doesn't like breadth. Fed not near easing interest rates. Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, interesting article. Higher bond yields can tighten financial conditions. Piper Sandler calls release of Microsoft 365 Co-Pilot artificial intelligence assistant the "iPhone moment" for the software and cloud giant.
Persons: Big Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Nick Timiraos, Piper Sandler, Western Digital Raymond James, Valley National Raymond James, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Chief U.S, Equity, Wall Street, Microsoft, Western Digital, Devices, Newell Brands Aerospace, JPMorgan, Valley National, Cisco Systems
The "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap tech names that grab all the headlines and rule Wall Street with their outsized influence have been masking a pretty rough year for everything else. However, under the hood, the S & P 500 index that gives all its stocks the same power may be more reflective of these risks than some strategists are giving them credit for. We do take cues from the overall market on whether the market is overbought or oversold. Coming into Monday, our closely watched S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator continued to flash oversold. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Jim Cramer, Jim, there's, Jim Cramer's, Michael Nagle Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Club, Apple, Broadcom, Honeywell, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Ukraine, AVGO
The odds of a fourth-quarter rally for the S & P 500 are coming down as higher rates and slower growth pressure equities, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. The S & P 500 approached its 200-day moving average — around 4,224 — earlier this month. .SPX YTD bar SPX in 2023 Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023. According to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey , the average 2023 target for the S & P 500 is at 4,392, with the median target even higher at 4,500. Sean Simonds of UBS is the only other top strategist who forecasts the S & P 500 pulling back to 3,900.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Stocks, SPX, Sean Simonds, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, CNBC Market, Survey, UBS
BOWLING GREEN, Ky. (AP) — Republican voter Mark Cook stuck with his party in Kentucky's last election for governor. Once again, Warren County, which includes the leafy, fast-growing college town of Bowling Green, looms as a potential swing area. Those undecided voters included Carol Martin of Bowling Green, who wanted to hear more from both candidates. “I believe him," the retiree said while strolling through a downtown Bowling Green park. "And what you see is what you get.”A Republican lawmaker from Bowling Green had a different view.
Persons: Mark Cook, Andy Beshear, Cook, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Beshear, “ He's, ” Cook, “ I’ve, I’m, Daniel Cameron, Kentuckians, Matt Bevin, Trump, Cameron, , Scott Lasley, , Carol Martin, Martin, “ I’m, Bevin, Dale Chaffin, Chaffin, Still, what's, Donald Kubeny, Roe, Wade, he’s, Linda King's, ” King, Gary Jolly, Susann Davis, ” Davis, Olivia Thomas, Patti Minter, it’s, Minter, Sen, Mike Wilson, Daniel Organizations: — Republican, Republican, Democratic, Bluegrass State, , Beshear, Western Kentucky University, National Corvette Museum, Bowling Green, Northern Kentucky University, , Democrat, Cameron, Supreme, Bowling, GOP, reined, Former, Bowling Green Democrat Locations: Ky, Kentucky's, Kentucky, Bowling, Appalachia, Mississippi, Warren County, It's, Louisville, Western Kentucky, Fayette County, Lexington, , Highland Heights, bologna, U.S, Bowling Green
Some analysts recommend buying dividend stocks as a way around it. Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson said in an Oct. 9 report that high-dividend stocks are one way investors can navigate the uncertainty. Automaker Stellantis boasted the highest dividend yield of the lot, offering around 10%, with a decent 76% buy rating from analysts, who gave it 28% potential upside. Other automakers that made the cut include Mercedes-Benz , which offered the next highest dividend yield at 8.5%, and Hyundai Motor . Prominent investor Oakmark Funds' Bill Nygren said this week that energy stocks deserve a place in the portfolio , especially when the market is especially volatile.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Oakmark, Bill Nygren, Yun Li, Michael Bloom Organizations: BMO, CNBC Pro, Energy, Stellantis, Benz, Hyundai Motor, Hyundai, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy Locations: Israel
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