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Market betting has been swinging between a 50- and a 75- basis-point increase when policymakers meet on Dec. 15. "It's extremely exciting but predicting the ECB for a market participant has become impossible," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said. That saves it from more painful changes of tack after ECB President Christine Lagarde went from all but ruling-out rate hikes this year to presiding over the steepest tightening cycle in the euro's history. But Lane said in a blog post on Friday it may "overstate" how persistent inflation may be. "Inflation is being driven by factors they can't control," he added, citing energy prices, geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions as some of them.

[1/5] Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks during a news conference to present her government's first budget in Rome, Italy, November 22, 2022. Meloni, a fiery conviction politician, has often spoken out against Italy's reliance on technocrats to solve its economic problems and lambasted alleged interference from "high international finance" and "Brussels bureaucrats". During the election campaign Meloni called in vain for her predecessor Mario Draghi to freeze the sale of a majority stake in ITA. PUSHBACKDeputy Economy and Finance Minister Maurizio Leo, an adviser to Meloni, had proposed splitting his ministry by hiving off the finance department responsible for tax matters. The head of the finance department, Fabrizia Lapecorella, has asked to move to another ministry, two sources said.

The dollar index rose less than expected in October prompted bets the Fed would scale back its hefty interest rate hikes. Waller did say that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. The comments, however, poured cold water on investor hopes for a "rapid Fed recalibration," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. The euro fell 0.24% against the dollar to $1.0322, after rising to a three-month high during Asian trading hours. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies including the euro, yen, and sterling, rose 0.74% to 107.072.

☆ U.S. dollar surges as traders say markets overreacted to U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But Governor Christopher Waller flagged on Sunday that the inflation print was "just one data point" and that other similar readings would be needed to show convincingly that inflation was slowing. Waller did add, however, that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. The euro fell 0.6% against the dollar to $1.0284 at 1130 GMT, after rising to a three-month high during Asian trading hours. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies including the euro, yen, and sterling, rose 0.4% to 107.14. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped, giving up some gains made after China moderated its zero COVID strategy.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets defy COVID blues
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Clyde Russell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Elsewhere, The Guardian reported that British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt is set to outline up to 60 billion pounds of tax rises and spending cuts next week, including at least 35 billion pounds ($39.56 billion) in cuts in the backdrop of the Bank of England's recession warning. Stock markets in the region chalked up gains across-the-board, underpinning Friday's rise in global shares after jobs data came in stronger than expected but also hinted at some slack in the tight American labor market. And staying on what the world's richest man is up to, Elon Musk laid out Twitter's mission, sparking debate on content accuracy. Twitter also updated its app to begin charging $8 for its sought-after blue check verification marks as it seeks to shore up revenue. China stocksReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Monday:Economic data: Germany Sep industrial output, UK Halifax Oct house prices, Euro zone Oct PMISpeakers: ECB Board member Fabio Panetta speaksEuropean earnings: RyanairReporting by Anshuman DagaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Polls and prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Chinese stocks continued last week's tentative recovery, however, despite officials throwing cold water on any early end to draconian COVID lockdown policies. Some correction of the market's severe underperformance this year was about the only cogent reason given for the ongoing stock bounce. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Fabio Panetta both speak. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ECB's top brass keep focus on fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's (ECB) two top officials emphasised on Friday the central bank's focus on bring down inflation in the euro area before it becomes entrenched. "We would need to take additional actions until we are more confident that inflation will return to target in a timely manner," she added. Both he and Lagarde said governments should stick to "temporary" and "targeted" support for households affected by the current inflation crisis to avoid supporting demand. Panetta, however, struck a more dovish tone by saying the ECB should avoid raising rates too fast because that could excessively hurt economic growth, home prices and financial markets. Reporting by Francesco Canepa Editing by Balazs Koranyi and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB can't just mirror Fed moves, Lagarde says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must be attentive to policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which influence global markets, but cannot just mirror its moves, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday after the Fed guided for more rate hikes. But Lagarde said the ECB, which itself raised rates by 75 basis points last week, could not simply mimic the Fed because economic conditions were different in the 19-country euro zone - a point underscored earlier by ECB board member Fabio Panetta. Lagarde conceded the ECB was "influenced by the consequences" of Fed action through financial markets and especially the euro's exchange rate, which was falling against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. "Clearly the exchange rate matters and has to be taken into account in our inflation projections," Lagarde said. He was echoed by Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno, who said in an interview the ECB had already completed a large part of the rate hikes it sees as needed.

☆ Factbox: Key ministers in new Italian Meloni government
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

ROME, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government was sworn into office on Saturday. Here the profiles of some of the key figures:ECONOMY MINISTERGiancarlo Giorgetti, 55, is a veteran political wheeler-dealer viewed as a moderate and relatively pro-European member of his right-wing League party. He was not Prime Minister Meloni's first choice for the job. He held posts in centre-right governments led by Berlusconi and recently served as president of the influential parliamentary intelligence committee. Meloni insisted on him for the job, overcoming resistance from Berlusconi who wanted a Forza Italia member in the ministry.

☆ (OFFICIAL) Key ministers in new Italian government
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Italy's newly appointed Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to the media following a meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella at the Quirinale Palace in Rome, Italy October 21, 2022. REUTERS/Guglielmo MangiapaneROME, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Giorgia Meloni's Italian government will be sworn in on Saturday at 10 a.m. (0800 GMT). Here the profiles of some of the key figures:ECONOMY MINISTERGiancarlo Giorgetti, 55, is a veteran political wheeler-dealer viewed as a moderate and relatively pro-European member of his right-wing League party. He was not Prime Minister Meloni's first choice for the job. Meloni insisted on him for the job, overcoming resistance from Berlusconi who wanted a Forza Italia member in the justice ministry.

☆ Low-key 'fixer' Giorgetti named Italy's economy minister
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Gavin Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

read moreTim Jones, euro zone analyst for market consultancy firm Medley Advisors, said "long-time League fixer" Giorgetti was a better fit. I don't know if I'd be able to be economy minister." As industry minister, he helped block a number of Chinese takeover bids in strategic sectors of Italy's economy. "He backed Maroni when he got rid of Bossi, he backed Salvini when he got rid of Maroni and then he backed Draghi who undermined Salvini," said the source, asking not to be named. Tellingly, when Meloni proposed Giorgetti as economy minister, Salvini said he should be counted as an external figure, rather than part of the League's quota of ministers, a party source said.

☆ Next Italy PM is bolstering her EU credentials
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MILAN, Oct 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Italy’s would-be premier Giorgia Meloni is seeking to score points with investors. The hard-right Brothers of Italy party leader, expected to become prime minister later this month, is looking to appoint pro-European lawmaker Giancarlo Giorgetti, 55, as finance minister. A veteran member of the League, Meloni’s coalition partner, Giorgetti is a moderate, pro-market politician. But the central banker, a top candidate to become Bank of Italy governor next year, turned down Meloni’s approach, people close to him told Reuters Breakingviews. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Mystery Dance
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Sudden and sometimes unexplained stock rallies are often hallmarks of prolonged bear markets. U.S. stock futures have retraced a bit - but an hour is a long time in markets these days. read moreElsewhere, China's stocks surged ahead of the Communist Party Congress and amid an expected rise in domestic inflation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: British bond burn
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreAhead of the open, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were again flirting with the year's highs above 4% and global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) were heading for new 2022 lows. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Sept NFIB small business index. * International Monetary Fund publishes World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report at annual IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington. * Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE deputy governor Jon Cunliffe, Swiss National Bank chief Thomas Jordan, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane, ECB board member Fabio Panetta, ECB bank supervisor Andrea Enria speak in United States. Long Gilt Yields SoarRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Dysfunction and intervention
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Amid all the chaos in British bond markets, the forced intervention by the Bank of England to buy gilts has given some investors a crumb of comfort about the limits of central bank tightening. Cold comfort maybe, but enough to drag bond yields back and lift stocks briefly around the world. While 30-year gilt yields steadied just below 4% on Thursday after their 100bp swoon the previous day, the pound was sliding again and UK midcap stocks dropped. read moreEasing inflation in Spain was better news read more . Market leader Inditex (ITX.MC), the owner of Zara, slipped 2.2%, while the wider STOXX retailers index <.SXRP> slid 4.3%.

☆ Morning Bid: Eye of the storm
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As Hurricane Ian raged and set its sights on Cuba and Florida, a global financial storm in bond and currency markets calmed moderately - though likely only temporarily. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFor all its potential destruction, Ian doesn't yet appear on the world markets radar. UK debt auctions this week will be watched very closely. But this may be the eye of the storm.

Fabio Panetta, director of international and European relations at the European Central Bank, attends the award ceremony for the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany at Bellevue Palace in Berlin, Germany, January 31, 2020. REUTERS/Annegret HilseROME, Sept 20 (Reuters) - ECB board member Fabio Panetta is resisting calls from Giorgia Meloni, the front-runner to be Italy's next prime minister, to take the job of economy minister should the rightist bloc win election on Sunday, two political sources told Reuters. Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy party, wants Panetta to replace Daniele Franco at the helm of the Italian Treasury, but Panetta has made it clear he is not interested in the role, the sources said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterPanetta, 63, is a veteran of more than three decades at Italy's central bank and has sat on the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) since the start of 2020. A third, separate source close to the matter confirmed Panetta was the leading candidate to replace Visco.

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